• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.22 no.3
• /
• pp.45-69
• /
• 2016

Recently, sentiment analysis using open Internet data is actively performed for various purposes. As online Internet communication channels become popular, companies try to capture public sentiment of them from online open information sources. This research is conducted for the purpose of analyzing pulbic sentiment of Korean Top-10 companies using a multi-categorical sentiment lexicon. Whereas existing researches related to public sentiment measurement based on big data approach classify sentiment into dimensions, this research classifies public sentiment into multiple categories. Dimensional sentiment structure has been commonly applied in sentiment analysis of various applications, because it is academically proven, and has a clear advantage of capturing degree of sentiment and interrelation of each dimension. However, the dimensional structure is not effective when measuring public sentiment because human sentiment is too complex to be divided into few dimensions. In addition, special training is needed for ordinary people to express their feeling into dimensional structure. People do not divide their sentiment into dimensions, nor do they need psychological training when they feel. People would not express their feeling in the way of dimensional structure like positive/negative or active/passive; rather they express theirs in the way of categorical sentiment like sadness, rage, happiness and so on. That is, categorial approach of sentiment analysis is more natural than dimensional approach. Accordingly, this research suggests multi-categorical sentiment structure as an alternative way to measure social sentiment from the point of the public. Multi-categorical sentiment structure classifies sentiments following the way that ordinary people do although there are possibility to contain some subjectiveness. In this research, nine categories: 'Sadness', 'Anger', 'Happiness', 'Disgust', 'Surprise', 'Fear', 'Interest', 'Boredom' and 'Pain' are used as multi-categorical sentiment structure. To capture public sentiment of Korean Top-10 companies, Internet news data of the companies are collected over the past 25 months from a representative Korean portal site. Based on the sentiment words extracted from previous researches, we have created a sentiment lexicon, and analyzed the frequency of the words coming up within the news data. The frequency of each sentiment category was calculated as a ratio out of the total sentiment words to make ranks of distributions. Sentiment comparison among top-4 companies, which are 'Samsung', 'Hyundai', 'SK', and 'LG', were separately visualized. As a next step, the research tested hypothesis to prove the usefulness of the multi-categorical sentiment lexicon. It tested how effective categorial sentiment can be used as relative comparison index in cross sectional and time series analysis. To test the effectiveness of the sentiment lexicon as cross sectional comparison index, pair-wise t-test and Duncan test were conducted. Two pairs of companies, 'Samsung' and 'Hanjin', 'SK' and 'Hanjin' were chosen to compare whether each categorical sentiment is significantly different in pair-wise t-test. Since category 'Sadness' has the largest vocabularies, it is chosen to figure out whether the subgroups of the companies are significantly different in Duncan test. It is proved that five sentiment categories of Samsung and Hanjin and four sentiment categories of SK and Hanjin are different significantly. In category 'Sadness', it has been figured out that there were six subgroups that are significantly different. To test the effectiveness of the sentiment lexicon as time series comparison index, 'nut rage' incident of Hanjin is selected as an example case. Term frequency of sentiment words of the month when the incident happened and term frequency of the one month before the event are compared. Sentiment categories was redivided into positive/negative sentiment, and it is tried to figure out whether the event actually has some negative impact on public sentiment of the company. The difference in each category was visualized, moreover the variation of word list of sentiment 'Rage' was shown to be more concrete. As a result, there was huge before-and-after difference of sentiment that ordinary people feel to the company. Both hypotheses have turned out to be statistically significant, and therefore sentiment analysis in business area using multi-categorical sentiment lexicons has persuasive power. This research implies that categorical sentiment analysis can be used as an alternative method to supplement dimensional sentiment analysis when figuring out public sentiment in business environment.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.22 no.3
• /
• pp.23-43
• /
• 2016

As a result of the growth of Internet data and the rapid development of Internet technology, "big data" analysis has gained prominence as a major approach for evaluating and mining enormous data for various purposes. Especially, in recent years, people tend to share their experiences related to their leisure activities while also reviewing others' inputs concerning their activities. Therefore, by referring to others' leisure activity-related experiences, they are able to gather information that might guarantee them better leisure activities in the future. This phenomenon has appeared throughout many aspects of leisure activities such as movies, traveling, accommodation, and dining. Apart from blogs and social networking sites, many other websites provide a wealth of information related to leisure activities. Most of these websites provide information of each product in various formats depending on different purposes and perspectives. Generally, most of the websites provide the average ratings and detailed reviews of users who actually used products/services, and these ratings and reviews can actually support the decision of potential customers in purchasing the same products/services. However, the existing websites offering information on leisure activities only provide the rating and review based on one stage of a set of evaluation criteria. Therefore, to identify the main issue for each evaluation criterion as well as the characteristics of specific elements comprising each criterion, users have to read a large number of reviews. In particular, as most of the users search for the characteristics of the detailed elements for one or more specific evaluation criteria based on their priorities, they must spend a great deal of time and effort to obtain the desired information by reading more reviews and understanding the contents of such reviews. Although some websites break down the evaluation criteria and direct the user to input their reviews according to different levels of criteria, there exist excessive amounts of input sections that make the whole process inconvenient for the users. Further, problems may arise if a user does not follow the instructions for the input sections or fill in the wrong input sections. Finally, treating the evaluation criteria breakdown as a realistic alternative is difficult, because identifying all the detailed criteria for each evaluation criterion is a challenging task. For example, if a review about a certain hotel has been written, people tend to only write one-stage reviews for various components such as accessibility, rooms, services, or food. These might be the reviews for most frequently asked questions, such as distance between the nearest subway station or condition of the bathroom, but they still lack detailed information for these questions. In addition, in case a breakdown of the evaluation criteria was provided along with various input sections, the user might only fill in the evaluation criterion for accessibility or fill in the wrong information such as information regarding rooms in the evaluation criteria for accessibility. Thus, the reliability of the segmented review will be greatly reduced. In this study, we propose an approach to overcome the limitations of the existing leisure activity information websites, namely, (1) the reliability of reviews for each evaluation criteria and (2) the difficulty of identifying the detailed contents that make up the evaluation criteria. In our proposed methodology, we first identify the review content and construct the lexicon for each evaluation criterion by using the terms that are frequently used for each criterion. Next, the sentences in the review documents containing the terms in the constructed lexicon are decomposed into review units, which are then reconstructed by using the evaluation criteria. Finally, the issues of the constructed review units by evaluation criteria are derived and the summary results are provided. Apart from the derived issues, the review units are also provided. Therefore, this approach aims to help users save on time and effort, because they will only be reading the relevant information they need for each evaluation criterion rather than go through the entire text of review. Our proposed methodology is based on the topic modeling, which is being actively used in text analysis. The review is decomposed into sentence units rather than considering the whole review as a document unit. After being decomposed into individual review units, the review units are reorganized according to each evaluation criterion and then used in the subsequent analysis. This work largely differs from the existing topic modeling-based studies. In this paper, we collected 423 reviews from hotel information websites and decomposed these reviews into 4,860 review units. We then reorganized the review units according to six different evaluation criteria. By applying these review units in our methodology, the analysis results can be introduced, and the utility of proposed methodology can be demonstrated.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.23 no.2
• /
• pp.123-138
• /
• 2017

Since the stock market is driven by the expectation of traders, studies have been conducted to predict stock price movements through analysis of various sources of text data. In order to predict stock price movements, research has been conducted not only on the relationship between text data and fluctuations in stock prices, but also on the trading stocks based on news articles and social media responses. Studies that predict the movements of stock prices have also applied classification algorithms with constructing term-document matrix in the same way as other text mining approaches. Because the document contains a lot of words, it is better to select words that contribute more for building a term-document matrix. Based on the frequency of words, words that show too little frequency or importance are removed. It also selects words according to their contribution by measuring the degree to which a word contributes to correctly classifying a document. The basic idea of constructing a term-document matrix was to collect all the documents to be analyzed and to select and use the words that have an influence on the classification. In this study, we analyze the documents for each individual item and select the words that are irrelevant for all categories as neutral words. We extract the words around the selected neutral word and use it to generate the term-document matrix. The neutral word itself starts with the idea that the stock movement is less related to the existence of the neutral words, and that the surrounding words of the neutral word are more likely to affect the stock price movements. And apply it to the algorithm that classifies the stock price fluctuations with the generated term-document matrix. In this study, we firstly removed stop words and selected neutral words for each stock. And we used a method to exclude words that are included in news articles for other stocks among the selected words. Through the online news portal, we collected four months of news articles on the top 10 market cap stocks. We split the news articles into 3 month news data as training data and apply the remaining one month news articles to the model to predict the stock price movements of the next day. We used SVM, Boosting and Random Forest for building models and predicting the movements of stock prices. The stock market opened for four months (2016/02/01 ~ 2016/05/31) for a total of 80 days, using the initial 60 days as a training set and the remaining 20 days as a test set. The proposed word - based algorithm in this study showed better classification performance than the word selection method based on sparsity. This study predicted stock price volatility by collecting and analyzing news articles of the top 10 stocks in market cap. We used the term - document matrix based classification model to estimate the stock price fluctuations and compared the performance of the existing sparse - based word extraction method and the suggested method of removing words from the term - document matrix. The suggested method differs from the word extraction method in that it uses not only the news articles for the corresponding stock but also other news items to determine the words to extract. In other words, it removed not only the words that appeared in all the increase and decrease but also the words that appeared common in the news for other stocks. When the prediction accuracy was compared, the suggested method showed higher accuracy. The limitation of this study is that the stock price prediction was set up to classify the rise and fall, and the experiment was conducted only for the top ten stocks. The 10 stocks used in the experiment do not represent the entire stock market. In addition, it is difficult to show the investment performance because stock price fluctuation and profit rate may be different. Therefore, it is necessary to study the research using more stocks and the yield prediction through trading simulation.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.23 no.2
• /
• pp.71-88
• /
• 2017

Language models were originally developed for speech recognition and language processing. Using a set of example sentences, a language model predicts the next word or character based on sequential input data. N-gram models have been widely used but this model cannot model the correlation between the input units efficiently since it is a probabilistic model which are based on the frequency of each unit in the training set. Recently, as the deep learning algorithm has been developed, a recurrent neural network (RNN) model and a long short-term memory (LSTM) model have been widely used for the neural language model (Ahn, 2016; Kim et al., 2016; Lee et al., 2016). These models can reflect dependency between the objects that are entered sequentially into the model (Gers and Schmidhuber, 2001; Mikolov et al., 2010; Sundermeyer et al., 2012). In order to learning the neural language model, texts need to be decomposed into words or morphemes. Since, however, a training set of sentences includes a huge number of words or morphemes in general, the size of dictionary is very large and so it increases model complexity. In addition, word-level or morpheme-level models are able to generate vocabularies only which are contained in the training set. Furthermore, with highly morphological languages such as Turkish, Hungarian, Russian, Finnish or Korean, morpheme analyzers have more chance to cause errors in decomposition process (Lankinen et al., 2016). Therefore, this paper proposes a phoneme-level language model for Korean language based on LSTM models. A phoneme such as a vowel or a consonant is the smallest unit that comprises Korean texts. We construct the language model using three or four LSTM layers. Each model was trained using Stochastic Gradient Algorithm and more advanced optimization algorithms such as Adagrad, RMSprop, Adadelta, Adam, Adamax, and Nadam. Simulation study was done with Old Testament texts using a deep learning package Keras based the Theano. After pre-processing the texts, the dataset included 74 of unique characters including vowels, consonants, and punctuation marks. Then we constructed an input vector with 20 consecutive characters and an output with a following 21st character. Finally, total 1,023,411 sets of input-output vectors were included in the dataset and we divided them into training, validation, testsets with proportion 70:15:15. All the simulation were conducted on a system equipped with an Intel Xeon CPU (16 cores) and a NVIDIA GeForce GTX 1080 GPU. We compared the loss function evaluated for the validation set, the perplexity evaluated for the test set, and the time to be taken for training each model. As a result, all the optimization algorithms but the stochastic gradient algorithm showed similar validation loss and perplexity, which are clearly superior to those of the stochastic gradient algorithm. The stochastic gradient algorithm took the longest time to be trained for both 3- and 4-LSTM models. On average, the 4-LSTM layer model took 69% longer training time than the 3-LSTM layer model. However, the validation loss and perplexity were not improved significantly or became even worse for specific conditions. On the other hand, when comparing the automatically generated sentences, the 4-LSTM layer model tended to generate the sentences which are closer to the natural language than the 3-LSTM model. Although there were slight differences in the completeness of the generated sentences between the models, the sentence generation performance was quite satisfactory in any simulation conditions: they generated only legitimate Korean letters and the use of postposition and the conjugation of verbs were almost perfect in the sense of grammar. The results of this study are expected to be widely used for the processing of Korean language in the field of language processing and speech recognition, which are the basis of artificial intelligence systems.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
• /
• v.26 no.2
• /
• pp.93-104
• /
• 2017

CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) is a technical process to capture $CO_2$ from industrial and energy-based sources, to transfer and sequestrate impressed $CO_2$ in geological formations, oceans, or mineral carbonates. However, potential $CO_2$ leakage exists and causes environmental problems. Thus, this study was conducted to analyze the spatial and temporal variations of $CO_2$ fluxes and concentrations after artificial $CO_2$ release. The Environmental Impact Evaluation Test Facility (EIT) was built in Eumseong, Korea in 2015. Approximately 34kg $CO_2$ /day/zone were injected at Zones 2, 3, and 4 among the total of 5 zones from October 26 to 30, 2015. $CO_2$ fluxes were measured every 30 minutes at the surface at 0m, 1.5m, 2.5m, and 10m from the $CO_2$ releasing well using LI-8100A until November 13, 2015, and $CO_2$ concentrations were measured once a day at 15cm, 30cm, and 60cm depths at every 0m, 1.5m, 2.5m, 5m, and 10m from the well using GA5000 until November 28, 2015. $CO_2$ flux at 0m from the well started increasing on the fifth day after $CO_2$ release started, and continued to increase until November 13 even though the artificial $CO_2$ release stopped. $CO_2$ fluxes measured at 2.5m, 5.0m, and 10m from the well were not significantly different with each other. On the other hand, soil $CO_2$ concentration was shown as 38.4% at 60cm depth at 0m from the well in Zone 3 on the next day after $CO_2$ release started. Soil $CO_2$ was horizontally spreaded overtime, and detected up to 5m away from the well in all zones until $CO_2$ release stopped. Also, soil $CO_2$ concentrations at 30cm and 60cm depths at 0m from the well were measured similarly as $50.6{\pm}25.4%$ and $55.3{\pm}25.6%$, respectively, followed by 30cm depth ($31.3{\pm}17.2%$) which was significantly lower than those measured at the other depths on the final day of $CO_2$ release period. Soil $CO_2$ concentrations at all depths in all zones were gradually decreased for about 1 month after $CO_2$ release stopped, but still higher than those of the first day after $CO_2$ release stared. In conclusion, the closer the distance from the well and the deeper the depth, the higher $CO_2$ fluxes and concentrations occurred. Also, long-term monitoring should be required because the leaked $CO_2$ gas can remains in the soil for a long time even if the leakage stopped.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.23 no.1
• /
• pp.95-108
• /
• 2017

Recently, AlphaGo which is Bakuk (Go) artificial intelligence program by Google DeepMind, had a huge victory against Lee Sedol. Many people thought that machines would not be able to win a man in Go games because the number of paths to make a one move is more than the number of atoms in the universe unlike chess, but the result was the opposite to what people predicted. After the match, artificial intelligence technology was focused as a core technology of the fourth industrial revolution and attracted attentions from various application domains. Especially, deep learning technique have been attracted as a core artificial intelligence technology used in the AlphaGo algorithm. The deep learning technique is already being applied to many problems. Especially, it shows good performance in image recognition field. In addition, it shows good performance in high dimensional data area such as voice, image and natural language, which was difficult to get good performance using existing machine learning techniques. However, in contrast, it is difficult to find deep leaning researches on traditional business data and structured data analysis. In this study, we tried to find out whether the deep learning techniques have been studied so far can be used not only for the recognition of high dimensional data but also for the binary classification problem of traditional business data analysis such as customer churn analysis, marketing response prediction, and default prediction. And we compare the performance of the deep learning techniques with that of traditional artificial neural network models. The experimental data in the paper is the telemarketing response data of a bank in Portugal. It has input variables such as age, occupation, loan status, and the number of previous telemarketing and has a binary target variable that records whether the customer intends to open an account or not. In this study, to evaluate the possibility of utilization of deep learning algorithms and techniques in binary classification problem, we compared the performance of various models using CNN, LSTM algorithm and dropout, which are widely used algorithms and techniques in deep learning, with that of MLP models which is a traditional artificial neural network model. However, since all the network design alternatives can not be tested due to the nature of the artificial neural network, the experiment was conducted based on restricted settings on the number of hidden layers, the number of neurons in the hidden layer, the number of output data (filters), and the application conditions of the dropout technique. The F1 Score was used to evaluate the performance of models to show how well the models work to classify the interesting class instead of the overall accuracy. The detail methods for applying each deep learning technique in the experiment is as follows. The CNN algorithm is a method that reads adjacent values from a specific value and recognizes the features, but it does not matter how close the distance of each business data field is because each field is usually independent. In this experiment, we set the filter size of the CNN algorithm as the number of fields to learn the whole characteristics of the data at once, and added a hidden layer to make decision based on the additional features. For the model having two LSTM layers, the input direction of the second layer is put in reversed position with first layer in order to reduce the influence from the position of each field. In the case of the dropout technique, we set the neurons to disappear with a probability of 0.5 for each hidden layer. The experimental results show that the predicted model with the highest F1 score was the CNN model using the dropout technique, and the next best model was the MLP model with two hidden layers using the dropout technique. In this study, we were able to get some findings as the experiment had proceeded. First, models using dropout techniques have a slightly more conservative prediction than those without dropout techniques, and it generally shows better performance in classification. Second, CNN models show better classification performance than MLP models. This is interesting because it has shown good performance in binary classification problems which it rarely have been applied to, as well as in the fields where it's effectiveness has been proven. Third, the LSTM algorithm seems to be unsuitable for binary classification problems because the training time is too long compared to the performance improvement. From these results, we can confirm that some of the deep learning algorithms can be applied to solve business binary classification problems.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.23 no.1
• /
• pp.47-67
• /
• 2017

Steel plate faults is one of important factors to affect the quality and price of the steel plates. So far many steelmakers generally have used visual inspection method that could be based on an inspector's intuition or experience. Specifically, the inspector checks the steel plate faults by looking the surface of the steel plates. However, the accuracy of this method is critically low that it can cause errors above 30% in judgment. Therefore, accurate steel plate faults diagnosis system has been continuously required in the industry. In order to meet the needs, this study proposed a new steel plate faults diagnosis system using Simultaneous MTS (S-MTS), which is an advanced Mahalanobis Taguchi System (MTS) algorithm, to classify various surface defects of the steel plates. MTS has generally been used to solve binary classification problems in various fields, but MTS was not used for multiclass classification due to its low accuracy. The reason is that only one mahalanobis space is established in the MTS. In contrast, S-MTS is suitable for multi-class classification. That is, S-MTS establishes individual mahalanobis space for each class. 'Simultaneous' implies comparing mahalanobis distances at the same time. The proposed steel plate faults diagnosis system was developed in four main stages. In the first stage, after various reference groups and related variables are defined, data of the steel plate faults is collected and used to establish the individual mahalanobis space per the reference groups and construct the full measurement scale. In the second stage, the mahalanobis distances of test groups is calculated based on the established mahalanobis spaces of the reference groups. Then, appropriateness of the spaces is verified by examining the separability of the mahalanobis diatances. In the third stage, orthogonal arrays and Signal-to-Noise (SN) ratio of dynamic type are applied for variable optimization. Also, Overall SN ratio gain is derived from the SN ratio and SN ratio gain. If the derived overall SN ratio gain is negative, it means that the variable should be removed. However, the variable with the positive gain may be considered as worth keeping. Finally, in the fourth stage, the measurement scale that is composed of selected useful variables is reconstructed. Next, an experimental test should be implemented to verify the ability of multi-class classification and thus the accuracy of the classification is acquired. If the accuracy is acceptable, this diagnosis system can be used for future applications. Also, this study compared the accuracy of the proposed steel plate faults diagnosis system with that of other popular classification algorithms including Decision Tree, Multi Perception Neural Network (MLPNN), Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Tree Bagger Random Forest, Grid Search (GS), Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The steel plates faults dataset used in the study is taken from the University of California at Irvine (UCI) machine learning repository. As a result, the proposed steel plate faults diagnosis system based on S-MTS shows 90.79% of classification accuracy. The accuracy of the proposed diagnosis system is 6-27% higher than MLPNN, LR, GS, GA and PSO. Based on the fact that the accuracy of commercial systems is only about 75-80%, it means that the proposed system has enough classification performance to be applied in the industry. In addition, the proposed system can reduce the number of measurement sensors that are installed in the fields because of variable optimization process. These results show that the proposed system not only can have a good ability on the steel plate faults diagnosis but also reduce operation and maintenance cost. For our future work, it will be applied in the fields to validate actual effectiveness of the proposed system and plan to improve the accuracy based on the results.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.21 no.4
• /
• pp.111-131
• /
• 2015

There are only a handful number of research conducted on pattern analysis of corporate distress as compared with research for bankruptcy prediction. The few that exists mainly focus on audited firms because financial data collection is easier for these firms. But in reality, corporate financial distress is a far more common and critical phenomenon for non-audited firms which are mainly comprised of small and medium sized firms. The purpose of this paper is to classify non-audited firms under distress according to their financial ratio using data mining; Self-Organizing Map (SOM). SOM is a type of artificial neural network that is trained using unsupervised learning to produce a lower dimensional discretized representation of the input space of the training samples, called a map. SOM is different from other artificial neural networks as it applies competitive learning as opposed to error-correction learning such as backpropagation with gradient descent, and in the sense that it uses a neighborhood function to preserve the topological properties of the input space. It is one of the popular and successful clustering algorithm. In this study, we classify types of financial distress firms, specially, non-audited firms. In the empirical test, we collect 10 financial ratios of 100 non-audited firms under distress in 2004 for the previous two years (2002 and 2003). Using these financial ratios and the SOM algorithm, five distinct patterns were distinguished. In pattern 1, financial distress was very serious in almost all financial ratios. 12% of the firms are included in these patterns. In pattern 2, financial distress was weak in almost financial ratios. 14% of the firms are included in pattern 2. In pattern 3, growth ratio was the worst among all patterns. It is speculated that the firms of this pattern may be under distress due to severe competition in their industries. Approximately 30% of the firms fell into this group. In pattern 4, the growth ratio was higher than any other pattern but the cash ratio and profitability ratio were not at the level of the growth ratio. It is concluded that the firms of this pattern were under distress in pursuit of expanding their business. About 25% of the firms were in this pattern. Last, pattern 5 encompassed very solvent firms. Perhaps firms of this pattern were distressed due to a bad short-term strategic decision or due to problems with the enterpriser of the firms. Approximately 18% of the firms were under this pattern. This study has the academic and empirical contribution. In the perspectives of the academic contribution, non-audited companies that tend to be easily bankrupt and have the unstructured or easily manipulated financial data are classified by the data mining technology (Self-Organizing Map) rather than big sized audited firms that have the well prepared and reliable financial data. In the perspectives of the empirical one, even though the financial data of the non-audited firms are conducted to analyze, it is useful for find out the first order symptom of financial distress, which makes us to forecast the prediction of bankruptcy of the firms and to manage the early warning and alert signal. These are the academic and empirical contribution of this study. The limitation of this research is to analyze only 100 corporates due to the difficulty of collecting the financial data of the non-audited firms, which make us to be hard to proceed to the analysis by the category or size difference. Also, non-financial qualitative data is crucial for the analysis of bankruptcy. Thus, the non-financial qualitative factor is taken into account for the next study. This study sheds some light on the non-audited small and medium sized firms' distress prediction in the future.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.21 no.4
• /
• pp.17-35
• /
• 2015

Demand forecasting is the activity of estimating the quantity of a product or service that consumers will purchase for a certain period of time. Developing precise forecasting models are considered important since corporates can make strategic decisions on new markets based on future demand estimated by the models. Many studies have developed market growth curve models, such as Bass, Logistic, Gompertz models, which estimate future demand when a market is in its early stage. Among the models, Bass model, which explains the demand from two types of adopters, innovators and imitators, has been widely used in forecasting. Such models require sufficient demand observations to ensure qualified results. In the beginning of a new market, however, observations are not sufficient for the models to precisely estimate the market's future demand. For this reason, as an alternative, demands guessed from those of most adjacent markets are often used as references in such cases. Reference markets can be those whose products are developed with the same categorical technologies. A market's demand may be expected to have the similar pattern with that of a reference market in case the adoption pattern of a product in the market is determined mainly by the technology related to the product. However, such processes may not always ensure pleasing results because the similarity between markets depends on intuition and/or experience. There are two major drawbacks that human experts cannot effectively handle in this approach. One is the abundance of candidate reference markets to consider, and the other is the difficulty in calculating the similarity between markets. First, there can be too many markets to consider in selecting reference markets. Mostly, markets in the same category in an industrial hierarchy can be reference markets because they are usually based on the similar technologies. However, markets can be classified into different categories even if they are based on the same generic technologies. Therefore, markets in other categories also need to be considered as potential candidates. Next, even domain experts cannot consistently calculate the similarity between markets with their own qualitative standards. The inconsistency implies missing adjacent reference markets, which may lead to the imprecise estimation of future demand. Even though there are no missing reference markets, the new market's parameters can be hardly estimated from the reference markets without quantitative standards. For this reason, this study proposes a case-based expert system that helps experts overcome the drawbacks in discovering referential markets. First, this study proposes the use of Euclidean distance measure to calculate the similarity between markets. Based on their similarities, markets are grouped into clusters. Then, missing markets with the characteristics of the cluster are searched for. Potential candidate reference markets are extracted and recommended to users. After the iteration of these steps, definite reference markets are determined according to the user's selection among those candidates. Then, finally, the new market's parameters are estimated from the reference markets. For this procedure, two techniques are used in the model. One is clustering data mining technique, and the other content-based filtering of recommender systems. The proposed system implemented with those techniques can determine the most adjacent markets based on whether a user accepts candidate markets. Experiments were conducted to validate the usefulness of the system with five ICT experts involved. In the experiments, the experts were given the list of 16 ICT markets whose parameters to be estimated. For each of the markets, the experts estimated its parameters of growth curve models with intuition at first, and then with the system. The comparison of the experiments results show that the estimated parameters are closer when they use the system in comparison with the results when they guessed them without the system.

• KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
• /
• v.40 no.1
• /
• pp.59-68
• /
• 1995

Investigated were the relationships between plumule elongation characteristics and seedling emergence of 46 varieties including native, improved and red rice varieties of Korea, and varieties from U.S.A., Italy, India, Japan under 1, 3, and 5cm deep sowing with irrigated and non-irrigated condition. Experiments were carried out in paddy field of sandy loam. There was heavy shower of 19.2mm on the next day of seeding and thereafter, clear and dry weather continued during the experiment period. Soil temperature averaged over 30 days after seeding was $16.4^{\circ}C$ at 3cm depth. Soil hardness increased linearly up to 2.5kg /$cm^2$ on the 14th day after seeding, on which date irrigated plot was irrigated through furrow, and up to 4kg / $cm^2$ on the 28th day in non-irrigated plot. Soil hardness dropped near to 0kg /$cm^2$ after irrigation and developed up to 2.5kg /$cm^2$ again by 28 days after seeding. Seedling emergence was higher in irrigated plots than non-irrigated plots at all seeding depths. Korean improved varieties were substantially lower in seedling emergence under non-irrigated condition of 1 cm deep sowing than those under irrigated condition. This poor seedling emergence resulted mainly from delayed emergence by exposing them to greater soil strength. Percent seedling emergence under irrigated and non-irrigated condition showed signifi-cant correlations at 3 and 5 cm deep sowing. Korean improved varieties belonged to the group of poor seedling emergence, and I taliconaverneco, Chinsura Boro and Weld Pally to best group under both irrigation conditions at 3 and 5cm deep sowing. Seedling emergence showed highly signifi-cant positive correlation with the plumule length of mesocotyl ＋ 1st internode ＋ incomplete leaf and of mesocotyl＋coleoptile. Among the characters constituting plumule length, incomplete leaf length showed greatest positive correlation followed by coleoptile and mesocotyl under irrigated condition at 3 and 5 cm deep sowing, and highest correlation with mesocotyllength followed by first internode and incomplete leaf under non-irrigated condition. Days to 50% seedling emergence at 1 cm deep sowing with irrigation showed great varietal variation of 10 to 30 days, and showed high significant negative correlations with percent seedling emergence under both irrigation conditions except for 1 cm deep sowing with irrigation, Days to seedling emergence revealed sig-nificant negative correlations with plumule characters except 2nd internode, showing highest cor-relation with incomplete leaf length.