• Title/Summary/Keyword: Multivariate regional frequency analysis

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Bivariate regional frequency analysis of extreme rainfalls in Korea (이변량 지역빈도해석을 이용한 우리나라 극한 강우 분석)

  • Shin, Ju-Young;Jeong, Changsam;Ahn, Hyunjun;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.9
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    • pp.747-759
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    • 2018
  • Multivariate regional frequency analysis has advantages of regional and multivariate framework as adopting a large number of regional dataset and modeling phenomena that cannot be considered in the univariate frequency analysis. To the best of our knowledge, the multivariate regional frequency analysis has not been employed for hydrological variables in South Korea. Applicability of the multivariate regional frequency analysis should be investigated for the hydrological variable in South Korea in order to improve our capacity to model the hydrological variables. The current study focused on estimating parameters of regional copula and regional marginal models, selecting the most appropriate distribution models, and estimating regional multivariate growth curve in the multivariate regional frequency analysis. Annual maximum rainfall and duration data observed at 71 stations were used for the analysis. The results of the current study indicate that Frank and Gumbel copula models were selected as the most appropriate regional copula models for the employed regions. Several distributions, e.g. Gumbel and log-normal, were the representative regional marginal models. Based on relative root mean square error of the quantile growth curves, the multivariate regional frequency analysis provided more stable and accurate quantiles than the multivariate at-site frequency analysis, especially for long return periods. Application of regional frequency analysis in bivariate rainfall-duration analysis can provide more stable quantile estimation for hydraulic infrastructure design criteria and accurate modelling of rainfall-duration relationship.

Hydrological homogeneous region delineation for bivariate frequency analysis of extreme rainfalls in Korea (다변량 L-moment를 이용한 이변량 강우빈도해석에서 수문학적 동질지역 선정)

  • Shin, Ju-Young;Jeong, Changsam;Joo, Kyungwon;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.1
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    • pp.49-60
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    • 2018
  • The multivariate regional frequency analysis has many advantages such as an adaption of regional parameters and consideration of a correlated structure of the data. The multivariate regional frequency analysis can provide the broader and more detailed information for the hydrological variables. The multivariate regional frequency analysis has not been attempted to model hydrological variables in South Korea yet. Therefore, it is required to investigate the applicability of the multivariate regional frequency analysis in the modeling of the hydrological variables. The current study investigated the applicability of the homogeneous region delineation and their characteristics in bivariate regional frequency analysis of annual maximum rainfall depth-duration data. The K-medoid method was employed as a clustering method. The discordancy and heterogeneous measures were used to assess the appropriateness of the delineation results. According to the results of the clustering analysis, the employed stations could be grouped into five regions. All stations at three of the five regions led to acceptable values of discordancy measures than the threshold. The stations where have short record length led to the large discordancy measures. All grouped regions were identified as a homogeneous region based on heterogeneous measure estimates. It was observed that there are strong cross-correlations among the stations in the same region.

Study on Rainfall Regional Frequency Analysis (강우 지역빈도해석의 적용성 연구)

  • Shin Hong Joon;Nam Woo Sung;Heo Jun Haeng;Kim Kyung Duk
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2005.05b
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    • pp.593-598
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    • 2005
  • At-site analysis is not appropriate if the record length is shorter than target return period T. If the record length is longer than 27 years, then at-site analysis may be sufficient(Institute of Hydrology, 1999). However, in such a case, regional frequency analysis is recommended for purpose of comparison. Record lengths of annual maximum rainfall data in Korea are usually shorter than 50 years. It is therefore essential to apply regional frequency analysis for estimating rainfall quantiles of more than 100 years return period. In this research, regional rainfall frequency analysis is performed for hourly rainfall data of South Korea. Homogeneous regions are idntified by clusgter analysis which is a standard method of statistical multivariate analysis for dividing a data set into groups. An appropriate distribution is chosen by goodness-of-fit test. GLO is found to be an appropriate distribution as a result of goodness-of-fit measure (Hosking & Wallis, 1997). Simulation experiments are performed to check the performance of frequency analysis techniques. The effects of discordant sites on quantiles are considered.

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A Study on the Regionalization of Point Rainfall by Multivariate Analysis Technique (다변량 분석기법에 의한 지점강우의 권역화 연구)

  • Park, Sang-Woo;Jun, Byong-Ho;Jang, Suk-Hwan
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.36 no.5
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    • pp.879-892
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    • 2003
  • This study has performed the regionalization of point rainfall which has the hydrological homogeneity for regional frequency analysis of the rainfall. For the study, the recorded rainfall data were collected from 60 rainfall gauge stations distributed all over country of the Korea Meteorological Administration, and 32 rainfall characteristic elements were analyzed from the collected data. Using the principal component analysis to be data reduction technique of the multivariate analysis and the cluster analysis to be grouping technique about many of rainfall characteristic elements of each station, the regionalization of point rainfall was accomplished rationally and efficiently. As the result, hydrological homogeneous regions of point rainfall were divided by 5 regions and 3 other regions, and rainfall characteristics of divided each region were analyzed and compared relatively using regional mean values of each rainfall element data.

Regional Rainfall Frequency Analysis by Multivariate Techniques (다변량 분석 기법을 활용한 강우 지역빈도해석)

  • Nam, Woo-Sung;Kim, Tae-Soon;Shin, Ju-Young;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.41 no.5
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    • pp.517-525
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    • 2008
  • Regional rainfall quantile depends on the identification of hydrologically homogeneous regions. Various variables relevant to precipitation can be used to form regions. Since the type and number of variables may lead to improve the efficiency of partitioning, it is important to select those precipitation related variables, which represent most of the information from all candidate variables. Multivariate analysis techniques can be used for this purpose. Procrustes analysis which can decrease the dimension of variables based on their correlations, are applied in this study. 42 rainfall related variables are decreased into 21 ones by Procrustes analysis. Factor analysis is applied to those selected variables and then 5 factors are extracted. Fuzzy-c means technique classifies 68 stations into 6 regions. As a result, the GEV distributions are fitted to 6 regions while the lognormal and generalized logistic distributions are fitted to 5 regions. For the comparison purpose with previous results, rainfall quantiles based on generalized logistic distribution are estimated by at-site frequency analysis, index flood method, and regional shape estimation method.

Selection of variables for regional precipitation frequency analysis using multivariate analysis (다변량 분석을 활용한 강우지역빈도해석의 지역구분인자 선정에 관한 연구)

  • Nam, Woo-Sung;Kim, Tae-Soon;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2006.05a
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    • pp.710-714
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    • 2006
  • 지역빈도해석기법은 수문학적으로 성질이 유사한 지점을 하나의 군으로 구성한 자료를 이용해서 빈도해석을 하는 기법으로, 지점빈도해석이 가질 수 있는 단점들을 보완하기 위한 방안의 하나로 기대되고 있다. 본 논문은, 지역빈도해석기법을 적용하기 위한 단계중의 하나인 군집해석에 사용되는 변수들을 보다 효율적으로 선택하기 위한 연구로서, 다변량 분석방법인 주성분분석과 요인분석, 그리고, 변수선택을 위한 Procrustes Analysis를 통해서 보다 효율적으로 변수를 선택하는 방법을 제안하기 위한 연구이다.

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A Derivation of Regional Representative Intensity-Duration-Frequency Relationship Using Multivariate Analysis (다변량 분석을 이용한 권역별 대표확률강우강도식의 유도)

  • Lee, Jung-Sik;Cho, Seong-Geun;Jang, Jin-Uk
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.7 no.2 s.25
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    • pp.13-24
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    • 2007
  • This study is to derive the rainfall intensity formula based on the representative probability distribution using multivariate analysis in Korea. The annual maximum rainfall data at 57 stations having more than 30years long records were used for 12 durations(10min, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10, 12, 18, 24hr). 50 rainfall characteristics elements are analyzed from the collected data. The widely used 14 probability distributions are applied to the basic data in hydrologic frequency analysis. The homogeneous tests(principal component and cluster analysis) are applied to find the rainfall homogeneity. The results of this study are as followings; (1) The homogeneous test shows that there is no appropriate representative distribution for the whole duration in Korea. But hydrological homogeneous regions of point rainfall could be divided by 5 regions. (2) The GEV distribution for zones I, III, IV, V and the Gumbel distribution for zone II are determined as the representative probability distribution. (3) Comparative analysis of the results shows that the probable rainfalls of representative zones are different from those of existing researches. (4) Rainfall intensity formulas are determined on the basis of the linearization technique for the probable rainfall.

Screening in the Era of Economic Crisis: Misperceptions and Misuse from a Longitudinal Study on Greek Women Undergoing Benign Vacuum-assisted Breast Biopsy

  • Domeyer, Philip John;Sergentanis, Theodoros Nikolaos;Katsari, Vasiliki;Souliotis, Kyriakos;Mariolis, Anargiros;Zagouri, Flora;Zografos, George Constantine
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.9
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    • pp.5023-5029
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    • 2013
  • Background: To evaluate knowledge about screening tests and tests without proven screening value in a Greek Breast Unit population undergoing benign vacuum-assisted breast biopsy (VABB). Materials and Methods: This study included 81 patients. Three knowledge-oriented items (recommended or not, screening frequency, age of onset) were assessed. Regarding screening tests two levels of knowledge were evaluated: i). crude knowledge (CK), i.e. knowledge that the test is recommended and ii). advanced knowledge (AK), i.e. correct response to all three knowledge-oriented items. Solely CK was evaluated for tests without proven screening value. Risk factors for lack of knowledge were assessed with multivariate logistic regression. A second questionnaire was administered 18 months after VABB to assess its impact on the performance of tests. Results: Concerning screening tests considerable lack of AK was noted (mammogram, 60.5%; Pap smear, 59.3%; fecal occult blood testing, 93.8%; sigmoidoscopy, 95.1%). Similarly lack of CK was documented regarding tests without proven screening value (breast self-examination, 92.6%; breast MRI, 60.5%; abdominal ultrasound, 71.6%; barium meal, 48.1%; urine analysis, 90.1%; chest X-Ray, 69.1%; electrocardiogram, 74.1%; cardiac ultrasound, 75.3%). Risk factors for lack of AK were: place of residence (mammogram), age (Pap smear), personal income (sigmoidoscopy); risk factors for lack of CK included number of offspring (breast MRI, chest X-Ray), BMI (abdominal ultrasound), marital status (urine analysis), current smoking status (electrocardiogram). VABB's only effect was improvement in mammogram rates. Conclusions: A considerable lack of knowledge concerning screening tests and misperceptions regarding those without proven value was documented.