• 한국안전학회지
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• 제33권6호
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• pp.37-41
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• 2018

Process safety technology has developed from qualitative methods such as HAZOP (hazard and operability study) to semi-quantitative methods such as LOPA (layer of protection analysis), and quantitative methods are actively studied these days. Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is often based on fault tree analysis (FTA). FTA is efficient, but difficult to apply when failure events are not independent of each other. This problem can be avoided using a Markov process (MP). MP requires definition of all possible states, and thus, generally, is more complicated than FTA. A method is proposed in this work that uses an MP model and a Weibull distribution model in order to construct a reliability model for multiple dependent failures. As a case study, a pressure safety valve (PSV) is considered, for which there are three kinds of failure, i.e. open failure, close failure, and gas tight failure. According to recently reported inspection results, open failure and close failure are dependent on each other. A reliability model for a PSV group is proposed in this work that is to reproduce these results. It is expected that the application of the proposed method can be expanded to QRA of various systems that have partially dependent multiple failure states.

• International Journal of Concrete Structures and Materials
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• 제3권1호
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• pp.71-77
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• 2009

A theoretical model of multiple cracking failure mechanism is proposed herein for fiber reinforced high performance Cementitious composites. By introducing partial debonding energy dissipation on non-first cracking plane and fiber reinforcing parameter, the failure mechanism model of multiple cracking is established based on the equilibrium assumption of total energy dissipation on the first crack plane and non-first cracking plane. Based on the assumption of the first crack to be the final failure crack, energy dissipation terms including complete debonding energy, partial debonding energy, strain energy of steel fiber, frictional energy, and matrix fracture energy have been modified and simplified. By comparing multiple cracking number and energy dissipations with experiment results of the reference's data, it indicates that this model can describe the multiple cracking behavior of fiber reinforced high performance cementitious composites and the influence of the partial debonding term on energy dissipation is significant. The model proposed may lay a foundation for the predictions of the first cracking capacity and post cracking capacity of fiber reinforced high performance cementitious composites and also can be a reference for optimal mixture for construction cost.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제38권5호
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• pp.651-674
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• 2011

This paper presents a novel method for predicting the failure probability of structural or mechanical systems subjected to random loads and material properties involving multiple design points. The method involves Multicut High Dimensional Model Representation (Multicut-HDMR) technique in conjunction with moving least squares to approximate the original implicit limit state/performance function with an explicit function. Depending on the order chosen sometimes truncated Cut-HDMR expansion is unable to approximate the original implicit limit state/performance function when multiple design points exist on the limit state/performance function or when the problem domain is large. Multicut-HDMR addresses this problem by using multiple reference points to improve accuracy of the approximate limit state/performance function. Numerical examples show the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed approach in estimating the failure probability.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제43권11호
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• pp.967-976
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• 2010

우수관의 성능이 한계상태(performance limit state)에 도달할 확률을 정량적으로 산정할 수 있는 FORM(First-Order Reliability Model)의 AFDA(Approximate Full Distribution Approach) 신뢰성 모형을 개발하였다. 우수관망에서 각각의 관으로 유입하는 유량이 그 관의 허용 가능 배출량을 초과하여 성능한계상태에 도달할 때 이를 파괴상태(failure state)라 정의하여 신뢰함수를 수립하였다. 우수관거로의 유입량은 합리식, 유출량은 Manning의 공식을 적용하였다. 또한 신뢰성 해석을 위한 관련 확률변수들에 대한 통계적 특성과 분포함수에 대한 해석이 수행되었다. 강우자료의 불확실성 해석에서 우리나라 여러 중소도시에 대한 연 최대강우강도의 확률분포가 Gumbel 극치분포함수와 일치함을 확인하였다. 개발된 신뢰성 모형을 Y자형 우수관망에 적용하여 성능한계상태가 발생할 확률, 즉 파괴확률(probability of failure)을 정량적으로 산정하였다. Manning의 공식을 이용하여 우수관의 직경 변화에 따른 파괴확률의 거동특성을 분석하였다. 특히 문경과 대전의 50년 재현기간을 갖는 설계 강우강도에 대한 우수관의 파괴확률을 산정한 결과에 의하면, 관의 직경이 특정수치 이하일 경우 파괴확률이 급격히 커지는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 이는 실제 우수관의 유효직경이 설계직경에 가깝도록 항상 관내 불순물을 제거하는 것이 파괴확률을 줄이는 최선의 방법임을 의미하는 것이다. 또한 우수관 시스템의 경우 여러 개의 관이 모여 하나의 관으로 흘러 들어가는 경우가 많으며 이 경우 다중파괴유형(multiple failure mode)을 적용하여 시스템이 파괴상태에 도달할 확률을 정량적으로 산정하였다. 본 연구에서 개발된 신뢰성 모형은 우수관의 운용, 관리, 감독은 물론 설계에 활용이 가능 할 것이다.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제28권11호
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• pp.1741-1751
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• 2004

It is commonly requested that the steam generator tubes wall-thinned in excess of 40% should be plugged. However, the plugging criterion is known to be too conservative for some locations and types of defects and its application is limited to a single crack in spite of the fact that the occurrence of multiple through-wall cracks is more common in general. The objective of this research is to propose the optimum failure prediction models for two adjacent through-wall cracks in steam generator tubes. The conservatism of the present plugging criteria was reviewed using the existing failure prediction models for a single crack, and six new failure prediction models for multiple through-wall cracks have been introduced. Then, in order to determine the optimum ones among these new local or global failure prediction models, a series of plastic collapse tests and corresponding finite element analyses for two adjacent through-wall cracks in thin plate were carried out. Thereby, the reaction force model, plastic zone contact model and COD (Crack-Opening Displacement) base model were selected as the optimum ones for assessment of steam generator tubes with multiple through-wall cracks. The selected optimum failure prediction models, finally, were used to estimate the coalescence pressure of two adjacent through-wall cracks in steam generator tubes.

• 한국콘크리트학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국콘크리트학회 1999년도 학회창립 10주년 기념 1999년도 가을 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.451-454
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• 1999

An existing plasticity model using multiple failure criteria is modified to describe the behavior of reinforced concrete planar members under cyclic load. Multiple failure criteria are used to define both isotropic damage of compressive crushing and anisotropic damage of tensile cracking. A numerical method is developed to define multi-directional and non-orthogonal crack directions. The material model is implemented in the finite element analysis and verified by comparison with existing experiments of reinforced concrete shear wall.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제21권4호
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• pp.609-628
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• 1995

This paper presents a reliability model and a data-analytic procedure for a repairable unit subject to failures due to multiple non-identifiable causes. We regard a failure cause as a state and assume the life distribution for each cause to be exponential. Then we represent the dependency among the causes by a Markov switching model(MSM) and estimate the transition probabilities and failure rates by maximum likelihood(ML) method. The failure data are incomplete due to masked causes of failures. We propose a specific version of EM(expectation and maximization) algorithm for finding maximum likelihood estimator(MLE) under this situation. We also develop statistical procedures for determining the number of significant states and for testing independency between state transitions. Our model requires only the successive failure times of a unit to perform the statistical analysis. It works well even when the causes of failures are fully masked, which overcomes the major deficiency of competing risk models. It does not require the assumption of stationarity or independency which is essential in mixture models. The stationary probabilities of states can be easily calculated from the transition probabilities estimated in our model, so it covers mixture models in general. The results of simulations show the consistency of estimation and accuracy gradually increasing according to the difference of failure rates and the frequency of transitions among the states.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제26권4호
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• pp.7-13
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• 2011

A study on reliability estimation of sequential-ordered multiple failure modes, which are sequentially ordered between failure modes in a considering system, was performed. Especially, an approach to estimate the probabilities of failure modes has been proposed under an assumption that failure modes are mutually exclusive and sequentially ordered by only a critical variable. A feasibility of the proposed approach were studied by a practical example, which is a reliability estimation of passive safety systems for a probabilistic safety assessment(PSA) of a very high temperature reactor(VHTR) that is under development as a future nuclear system with enhanced safety features. It is difficult to define a robust failure state of this nuclear system because of its enhanced radiation release characteristics, so the new approach is a useful concept to estimate not only its safety but also a PSA. A feasibility study applied two failure modes(e.g., small and large release of radioactive materials) with considering the integrated behavior of this nuclear system. It is expected that the multiple release states for a practical estimation can be easily extended to the aforementioned example. It was found out that the proposed approach was a useful technique to cover the unfavorable features of this nuclear system as to performing a VHTR PSA.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제17권2호
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• pp.647-655
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• 2006

In this paper, we consider multiple comparisons for the ratio of the failure rates in two components system that the lifetimes of the components have independent exponential distributions. Also we suggest Bayesian multiple comparisons procedure based on fractional Bayes factor when noninformative priors are applied for the parameters. Finally, we give numerical examples to illustrate our procedure.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제36권4호
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• pp.316-326
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• 2004

The $40\%$ of wall criterion, which is generally used for the plugging of steam generator tubes, is applied only to a single crack. In a previous study, a total number of 9 failure models were proposed to estimate the local failure of the ligament between cracks, and the optimum coalescence model of multiple collinear cracks was determined among these models. It is, however known that parallel axial cracks are more frequently detected than collinear axial cracks during an in-service inspection. The objective of this study is to determine the plastic collapse model that can be applied to steam generator tubes containing two parallel axial through-wall cracks. Three previously proposed local failure models were selected as the candidates. Subsequently, the interaction effects between two adjacent cracks were evaluated to screen them. Plastic collapse tests for the plate with two parallel through-wall cracks and finite element analyses were performed to determine the optimum plastic collapse model. By comparing the test results with the prediction results obtained from the candidate models, a COD base model was selected as an optimum model.