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Diagnosis of Nitrogen Content in the Leaves of Apple Tree Using Spectral Imagery (분광 영상을 이용한 사과나무 잎의 질소 영양 상태 진단)

  • Jang, Si Hyeong;Cho, Jung Gun;Han, Jeom Hwa;Jeong, Jae Hoon;Lee, Seul Ki;Lee, Dong Yong;Lee, Kwang Sik
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.384-392
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    • 2022
  • The objective of this study was to estimated nitrogen content and chlorophyll using RGB, Hyperspectral sensors to diagnose of nitrogen nutrition in apple tree leaves. Spectral data were acquired through image processing after shooting with high resolution RGB and hyperspectral sensor for two-year-old 'Hongro/M.9' apple. Growth data measured chlorophyll and leaf nitrogen content (LNC) immediately after shooting. The growth model was developed by using regression analysis (simple, multi, partial least squared) with growth data (chlorophyll, LNC) and spectral data (SPAD meter, color vegetation index, wavelength). As a result, chlorophyll and LNC showed a statistically significant difference according to nitrogen fertilizer level regardless of date. Leaf color became pale as the nutrients in the leaf were transferred to the fruit as over time. RGB sensor showed a statistically significant difference at the red wavelength regardless of the date. Also hyperspectral sensor showed a spectral difference depend on nitrogen fertilizer level for non-visible wavelength than visible wavelength at June 10th and July 14th. The estimation model performance of chlorophyll, LNC showed Partial least squared regression using hyperspectral data better than Simple and multiple linear regression using RGB data (Chlorophyll R2: 81%, LNC: 81%). The reason is that hyperspectral sensor has a narrow Full Half at Width Maximum (FWHM) and broad wavelength range (400-1,000 nm), so it is thought that the spectral analysis of crop was possible due to stress cause by nitrogen deficiency. In future study, it is thought that it will contribute to development of high quality and stable fruit production technology by diagnosis model of physiology and pest for all growth stage of tree using hyperspectral imagery.

An Artificial Intelligence Approach to Waterbody Detection of the Agricultural Reservoirs in South Korea Using Sentinel-1 SAR Images (Sentinel-1 SAR 영상과 AI 기법을 이용한 국내 중소규모 농업저수지의 수표면적 산출)

  • Choi, Soyeon;Youn, Youjeong;Kang, Jonggu;Park, Ganghyun;Kim, Geunah;Lee, Seulchan;Choi, Minha;Jeong, Hagyu;Lee, Yangwon
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.5_3
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    • pp.925-938
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    • 2022
  • Agricultural reservoirs are an important water resource nationwide and vulnerable to abnormal climate effects such as drought caused by climate change. Therefore, it is required enhanced management for appropriate operation. Although water-level tracking is necessary through continuous monitoring, it is challenging to measure and observe on-site due to practical problems. This study presents an objective comparison between multiple AI models for water-body extraction using radar images that have the advantages of wide coverage, and frequent revisit time. The proposed methods in this study used Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images, and unlike common methods of water extraction based on optical images, they are suitable for long-term monitoring because they are less affected by the weather conditions. We built four AI models such as Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) using drone images, sentinel-1 SAR and DSM data. There are total of 22 reservoirs of less than 1 million tons for the study, including small and medium-sized reservoirs with an effective storage capacity of less than 300,000 tons. 45 images from 22 reservoirs were used for model training and verification, and the results show that the AutoML model was 0.01 to 0.03 better in the water Intersection over Union (IoU) than the other three models, with Accuracy=0.92 and mIoU=0.81 in a test. As the result, AutoML performed as well as the classical machine learning methods and it is expected that the applicability of the water-body extraction technique by AutoML to monitor reservoirs automatically.

A Study for Developing Music Therapy Activity Program for Development of Rudimentary Movement Phase of Spastic Cerebral Palsied Infant : Applying the techniques of Neurological Music Therapy (경직형 뇌성마비 유아의 초보운동단계 발달을 위한 음악치료활동 프로그램 개발 - 신경학적 음악치료의 기법을 활용하여)

  • Lee, Yoon Jin
    • Journal of Music and Human Behavior
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.84-105
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    • 2007
  • Cerebral palsy is a collection of motor disorders resulting from damage to the central nervous system that arise in multiple handicaps including cognitive disorders, speech disorders, epilepsy, perception disorders, and emotion disorders. Today spastic cerebral palsy has become more prevalent because intensive care for newborns has resulted in higher survival rates for very small premature babies. Since the children grow the fastest in order for a development during one year after birth, the therapeutic intervention is provided as early as possible to the children with cerebral palsy. After seven year old, there is no effect of intervention. So, the necessity of early intervention to spastic cerebral palsied infants is increasing. The purpose of this study is to develop the music therapy activity program using the techniques of neurological music therapy(NMT), the therapeutic application of music to dysfunctions due to neurologic disease of the human nervous system, for rudimentary movement phase of spastic cerebral palsied infant. This music therapy activity program was developed on the basis of the major developmental tasks of the rudimentary movement phase, the period that children can acquire the most basic movement function at the 0 to 2. Then the developmental characteristics of spastic cerebral palsy were applied to this music therapy activity program. This music therapy activity program was classified to three domains, those are stability, locomotion, and manipulation. This study has been consisted of three steps, those are the development of the activities, the evaluation of the activities by th panels, and the adjustment and complement of the activities. Reviewing literatures and interviews were done for the development of the activities, and the evaluation the activities was done by seven music therapists. In the evaluation steps, the questionnaire was used for estimating the content validity and application efficiency. The adjustment and complement of the activities were evaluated by the panels who were participating in the music therapy for cerebral palsied children in the clinical setting, and the results of the adjustment and complement were confirmed by the panels. The evaluation was presented in a mean value with the comment of the panels. In conclusion, the music therapy activity program for the spastic cerebral palsied infants using the techniques of NMT was developed on the basis of the major developmental tasks of the rudimentary movement phase. The program is comprised of 38 activities, those are 14 activities for developing the stability, 10 activities for developing the locomotion, and 14 activities for developing the manipulation. The programed activities would bring out the answers in the affirmative for the conformance with infants' development phase, the harmony between the objective and the activity, the conformance with the cerebral palsied infants, the properness of the music and the instruments, and the utility in the clinic field. This results mean that this developed music activity program is appropriate to help spastic cerebral palsied infants progress their movement development by stages.

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Clinical Efficacy of Clomiphene Citrate and Letrozole Combined with Gonadotropins for Superovulation in Patients with Clomiphene-Induced Thin Endometrium (클로미펜에 얇은 자궁내막을 보이는 환자에서 성선자극호르몬 병합 과배란유도시 클로미펜과 레트로졸의 임상적 효용성)

  • Lee, Eun-Joo;Park, Hyun-Jong;Yang, Hyo-In;Lee, Kyung-Eun;Seo, Seok-Kyo;Kim, Hye-Yeon;Cho, Si-Hyun;Choi, Young-Sik;Lee, Byung-Seok;Park, Ki-Hyun;Cho, Dong-Jae
    • Clinical and Experimental Reproductive Medicine
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.111-119
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    • 2009
  • Objective: The aim of this study was to compare the clinical efficacy of clomiphene citrate (CC) and letrozole combined with gonadotropins for controlled ovarian stimulation (COS) in patients with CC-induced thin endometrium Methods: Fifty-one intrauterine insemination cycles performed in patients who previously had a thin endometrium (<8 mm) to ovulation induction using CC were included in this study. A CC 100 mg/day (CC+gonadotropin group, n=26) or letrozole 2.5 or 5 mg/day (letrozole+gonadotropin group, n=25) was administered on day 3~7 of the menstrual cycle, combined with gonadotropins at dose 75~150 IU every other day starting on day 5~7. We compared total dose of gonadotropin used, endometrial thickness, endometrial pattern, number of follicles ${\geq}14\;mm$ on hCG day, pregnancy rate and multiple pregnancy rate between the two groups, which were statistically analyzed using Mann-Whitney U test or Fisher's exact test, where appropriate. Results: There were no significant differences in clinical characteristics such as age, duration of infertility, number of previous IUI cycles, basal serum hormone levels and cause of infertility between the two groups. In both groups, the endometrium was significantly thicker than that of previous ovulation induction cycles using CC. No significant differences were found in the total dose of gonadotropin used, day of hCG administration, the rate of triple endometrium and pregnancy rate. The number of follicles ${\geq}14\;mm$ was significantly lower ($3.7{\pm}1.7$ vs. $2.8{\pm}1.7$, p=0.03) and the endometrium on hCG day was significantly thicker ($7.7{\pm}1.5$ vs. $9.1{\pm}1.7$, p=0.001) in letrozole+gonadotropin group compared to CC+gonadotropin group. Conclusion: The clomiphene citrate and letrozole combined with gonadotropins appear to avoid the undesirable effects on the endometrium frequently seen with CC for ovulation induction. However, in terms of adequate endometrial development or optimal follicular growth, letrozole may be more beneficial than CC for gonadotropin-combined COS in patients with CC-induced thin endometrium. Further prospective randomized controlled studies in a larger scale will be necessary to confirm our findings.

Health Status and Use of Health Care Services of the Elderly Utilizing Senior citizen Centers (경로당 노인의 건강상태와 건강관리서비스 이용 관련요인 분석)

  • Shin, Sun-Hye;Kim, Jin-Soon
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.99-113
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    • 2002
  • For this study a sample of 205 people, 66 males and 139 females, over 65 years of age, residing in C-gu of S-si and utilizing senior centers, were selected, The objective of the study was to provide basic data for health promotion program development provided by health centers. A questionnaire was used to collect date on general characteristics, health status, social health status and utilization rate for health services. The instruments used in this study were the Lawton scale, to measure daily routine function, the MMSE-K developed by Folstein and modified to fit the Korea situation, for mental health status, and the CES-Dtool developed by Radloff, for emotional health status. the SPSS Window program was used to calculate percentages. Tests of significance were done using t-test and ANOVA. Multiple regression analysis was used to identify variables influencing the use of health services. The results are as follows : Of those utilizing senior citizen centers, 40.9% of males and 17.3% of the female thought they were healthy. The average score for IADL was 7.4. The daily routine of female respondents consisted of buying household articles and drugs, and other IADLs such as riding the bus or subway alone. These resulted in a higher score compared to males. For emotional health, 7.6% of the males reported depression compared to 21.6% of the females. For mental health, 48.5% of the males and 28.8% of the females were found to be in the group suspicious for dementia. On social health, 57.6% of the males and 62.6% of the females reported no intimate human relations. Of those older people who had close human relations, 52.5% of the males indicated a friend as the closest person and 53.8% of the females, their children. On use of health services, there was a significantly higher need for mobile medical care services treatment for those with lower education levels and status of window/widower. There was a significantly higher need for health exmination services for those with lower levels of exercise, greater satisfaction with sleep, higher levels of oral health care, and higher social contacts. In conclusion, there is a need to provide varied programs for the promotion of health, along with parallel resolution of social, psychological and economic issues. It is recommended that health services for elderly people provided by the health centers be implemented with full recognition of these characteristics and differences.

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Predicting Oxygen Uptake for Men with Moderate to Severe Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD환자에서 6분 보행검사를 이용한 최대산소섭취량 예측)

  • Kim, Changhwan;Park, Yong Bum;Mo, Eun Kyung;Choi, Eun Hee;Nam, Hee Seung;Lee, Sung-Soon;Yoo, Young Won;Yang, Yun Jun;Moon, Joung Wha;Kim, Dong Soon;Lee, Hyang Yi;Jin, Young-Soo;Lee, Hye Young;Chun, Eun Mi
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.64 no.6
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    • pp.433-438
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    • 2008
  • Background: Measurement of the maximum oxygen uptake in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been used to determine the intensity of exercise and to estimate the patient's response to treatment during pulmonary rehabilitation. However, cardiopulmonary exercise testing is not widely available in Korea. The 6-minute walk test (6MWT) is a simple method of measuring the exercise capacity of a patient. It also provides high reliability data and it reflects the fluctuation in one' s exercise capacity relatively well with using the standardized protocol. The prime objective of the present study is to develop a regression equation for estimating the peak oxygen uptake ($VO_2$) for men with moderate to very severe COPD from the results of a 6MWT. Methods: A total of 33 male patients with moderate to very severe COPD agreed to participate in this study. Pulmonary function testing, cardiopulmonary exercise testing and a 6MWT were performed on their first visits. The index of work ($6M_{work}$, 6-minute walk distance [6MWD]${\times}$body weight) was calculated for each patient. Those variables that were closely related to the peak $VO_2$ were identified through correlation analysis. With including such variables, the equation to predict the peak $VO_2$ was generated by the multiple linear regression method. Results: The peak $VO_2$ averaged $1,015{\pm}392ml/min$, and the mean 6MWD was $516{\pm}195$ meters. The $6M_{work}$ (r=.597) was better correlated to the peak $VO_2$ than the 6MWD (r=.415). The other variables highly correlated with the peak $VO_2$ were the $FEV_1$ (r=.742), DLco (r=.734) and FVC (r=.679). The derived prediction equation was $VO_2$ (ml/min)=($274.306{\times}FEV_1$)+($36.242{\times}DLco$)+($0.007{\times}6M_{work}$)-84.867. Conclusion: Under the circumstances when measurement of the peak $VO_2$ is not possible, we consider the 6MWT to be a simple alternative to measuring the peak $VO_2$. Of course, it is necessary to perform a trial on much larger scale to validate our prediction equation.

Retail Product Development and Brand Management Collaboration between Industry and University Student Teams (산업여대학학생단대지간적령수산품개발화품패관리협작(产业与大学学生团队之间的零售产品开发和品牌管理协作))

  • Carroll, Katherine Emma
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.239-248
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    • 2010
  • This paper describes a collaborative project between academia and industry which focused on improving the marketing and product development strategies for two private label apparel brands of a large regional department store chain in the southeastern United States. The goal of the project was to revitalize product lines of the two brands by incorporating student ideas for new solutions, thereby giving the students practical experience with a real-life industry situation. There were a number of key players involved in the project. A privately-owned department store chain based in the southeastern United States which was seeking an academic partner had recognized a need to update two existing private label brands. They targeted middle-aged consumers looking for casual, moderately priced merchandise. The company was seeking to change direction with both packaging and presentation, and possibly product design. The branding and product development divisions of the company contacted professors in an academic department of a large southeastern state university. Two of the professors agreed that the task would be a good fit for their classes - one was a junior-level Intermediate Brand Management class; the other was a senior-level Fashion Product Development class. The professors felt that by working collaboratively on the project, students would be exposed to a real world scenario, within the security of an academic learning environment. Collaboration within an interdisciplinary team has the advantage of providing experiences and resources beyond the capabilities of a single student and adds "brainpower" to problem-solving processes (Lowman 2000). This goal of improving the capabilities of students directed the instructors in each class to form interdisciplinary teams between the Branding and Product Development classes. In addition, many universities are employing industry partnerships in research and teaching, where collaboration within temporal (semester) and physical (classroom/lab) constraints help to increase students' knowledge and experience of a real-world situation. At the University of Tennessee, the Center of Industrial Services and UT-Knoxville's College of Engineering worked with a company to develop design improvements in its U.S. operations. In this study, Because should be lower case b with a private label retail brand, Wickett, Gaskill and Damhorst's (1999) revised Retail Apparel Product Development Model was used by the product development and brand management teams. This framework was chosen because it addresses apparel product development from the concept to the retail stage. Two classes were involved in this project: a junior level Brand Management class and a senior level Fashion Product Development class. Seven teams were formed which included four students from Brand Management and two students from Product Development. The classes were taught the same semester, but not at the same time. At the beginning of the semester, each class was introduced to the industry partner and given the problem. Half the teams were assigned to the men's brand and half to the women's brand. The teams were responsible for devising approaches to the problem, formulating a timeline for their work, staying in touch with industry representatives and making sure that each member of the team contributed in a positive way. The objective for the teams was to plan, develop, and present a product line using merchandising processes (following the Wickett, Gaskill and Damhorst model) and develop new branding strategies for the proposed lines. The teams performed trend, color, fabrication and target market research; developed sketches for a line; edited the sketches and presented their line plans; wrote specifications; fitted prototypes on fit models, and developed final production samples for presentation to industry. The branding students developed a SWOT analysis, a Brand Measurement report, a mind-map for the brands and a fully integrated Marketing Report which was presented alongside the ideas for the new lines. In future if the opportunity arises to work in this collaborative way with an existing company who wishes to look both at branding and product development strategies, classes will be scheduled at the same time so that students have more time to meet and discuss timelines and assigned tasks. As it was, student groups had to meet outside of each class time and this proved to be a challenging though not uncommon part of teamwork (Pfaff and Huddleston, 2003). Although the logistics of this exercise were time-consuming to set up and administer, professors felt that the benefits to students were multiple. The most important benefit, according to student feedback from both classes, was the opportunity to work with industry professionals, follow their process, and see the results of their work evaluated by the people who made the decisions at the company level. Faculty members were grateful to have a "real-world" case to work with in the classroom to provide focus. Creative ideas and strategies were traded as plans were made, extending and strengthening the departmental links be tween the branding and product development areas. By working not only with students coming from a different knowledge base, but also having to keep in contact with the industry partner and follow the framework and timeline of industry practice, student teams were challenged to produce excellent and innovative work under new circumstances. Working on the product development and branding for "real-life" brands that are struggling gave students an opportunity to see how closely their coursework ties in with the real-world and how creativity, collaboration and flexibility are necessary components of both the design and business aspects of company operations. Industry personnel were impressed by (a) the level and depth of knowledge and execution in the student projects, and (b) the creativity of new ideas for the brands.

Measurement of Bone mineral density According to Middle aged Women with Low Back Pain (중년여성의 요통에 따른 골밀도 측정)

  • Kang, Jeom-Deok;Kim, Jong-Bong
    • The Journal of Korean Academy of Orthopedic Manual Physical Therapy
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.5-28
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    • 2001
  • Objectives: The objective of this study was to investigate analysis of bone mineral density according to Women with low back pain women. Methods: The data were collected from women who visited Physical Examination Center of a Catholic university hospital located in Daegu. Questionnaires were completed by 50 women during the period from July 20, 2000 to January 12, 2001. The sample was divided into three groups(the normal group of 16 cases and the osteopenia group of 12cases and the osteoporosis group of 22 cases). Bone mineral density(BMD) of lumbar spine was measured using energy absorptiometry. Results: The bone mineral density of the lumbar spine decreased with aging. The bone mineral density of the lumbar spine decreased with the serum Calcium and Phosphorus and Alkaline phosphatase increased. The mean bone mineral density of the lumbar spine of healthy women in age(50~59) was 0.87g/$cm^2$, the lumbar spine of women with low back pain in age(50~59) was 0.77g/$cm^2$. In the multiple regression of risk factors to bone mineral density(BMD) of lumbar spine were correlated with age, marriage existence, exercise time, the loving food of taste, calcium, bone mineral density standard T scores(p<0.05). The experience for LBP increased as weight increased(Odds ratio=999.000). The experience for LBP increased as number of Exercise decreased(Odds ratio=999.000). The experience for LBP increased as menopause existence increased(Odds ratio=999.000). The experience for LBP increased as serum Calcium and Phosphorus increased (Odds ratio=999.000). however all four variables had significant no relationship. The correlation in variables in relation to low back pain and bone mineral density, age showed contra-correlation with low back pain existence, Alkaline phosphatase(p<0.01). Weight showed contra-correlation with body mass index(BMI)(p<0.01). Exercise time showed correlation with number of exercise(p<0.01). The loving food of taste showed contra-correlation with Alkaline phosphatase(p<0.05). Bone mineral density showed correlation with menopause existence(p<0.05). Conclusions: Results from this study indicated that a statistically significant association between bone mineral density of the lumbar spin and age, marriage existence, exercise time, the loving food of taste, calcium, bone mineral density standard T scores. In logistic regression test, there were no related variables. The combination of bone mineral density measurement and assessment of the bone turnover rate by measuring biochemical would be helpful for the treatment of patients with risks of osteoporosis. The more precise study for risk factors to osteoporosis is essential.

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Target-Aspect-Sentiment Joint Detection with CNN Auxiliary Loss for Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis (CNN 보조 손실을 이용한 차원 기반 감성 분석)

  • Jeon, Min Jin;Hwang, Ji Won;Kim, Jong Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.1-22
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    • 2021
  • Aspect Based Sentiment Analysis (ABSA), which analyzes sentiment based on aspects that appear in the text, is drawing attention because it can be used in various business industries. ABSA is a study that analyzes sentiment by aspects for multiple aspects that a text has. It is being studied in various forms depending on the purpose, such as analyzing all targets or just aspects and sentiments. Here, the aspect refers to the property of a target, and the target refers to the text that causes the sentiment. For example, for restaurant reviews, you could set the aspect into food taste, food price, quality of service, mood of the restaurant, etc. Also, if there is a review that says, "The pasta was delicious, but the salad was not," the words "steak" and "salad," which are directly mentioned in the sentence, become the "target." So far, in ABSA, most studies have analyzed sentiment only based on aspects or targets. However, even with the same aspects or targets, sentiment analysis may be inaccurate. Instances would be when aspects or sentiment are divided or when sentiment exists without a target. For example, sentences like, "Pizza and the salad were good, but the steak was disappointing." Although the aspect of this sentence is limited to "food," conflicting sentiments coexist. In addition, in the case of sentences such as "Shrimp was delicious, but the price was extravagant," although the target here is "shrimp," there are opposite sentiments coexisting that are dependent on the aspect. Finally, in sentences like "The food arrived too late and is cold now." there is no target (NULL), but it transmits a negative sentiment toward the aspect "service." Like this, failure to consider both aspects and targets - when sentiment or aspect is divided or when sentiment exists without a target - creates a dual dependency problem. To address this problem, this research analyzes sentiment by considering both aspects and targets (Target-Aspect-Sentiment Detection, hereby TASD). This study detected the limitations of existing research in the field of TASD: local contexts are not fully captured, and the number of epochs and batch size dramatically lowers the F1-score. The current model excels in spotting overall context and relations between each word. However, it struggles with phrases in the local context and is relatively slow when learning. Therefore, this study tries to improve the model's performance. To achieve the objective of this research, we additionally used auxiliary loss in aspect-sentiment classification by constructing CNN(Convolutional Neural Network) layers parallel to existing models. If existing models have analyzed aspect-sentiment through BERT encoding, Pooler, and Linear layers, this research added CNN layer-adaptive average pooling to existing models, and learning was progressed by adding additional loss values for aspect-sentiment to existing loss. In other words, when learning, the auxiliary loss, computed through CNN layers, allowed the local context to be captured more fitted. After learning, the model is designed to do aspect-sentiment analysis through the existing method. To evaluate the performance of this model, two datasets, SemEval-2015 task 12 and SemEval-2016 task 5, were used and the f1-score increased compared to the existing models. When the batch was 8 and epoch was 5, the difference was largest between the F1-score of existing models and this study with 29 and 45, respectively. Even when batch and epoch were adjusted, the F1-scores were higher than the existing models. It can be said that even when the batch and epoch numbers were small, they can be learned effectively compared to the existing models. Therefore, it can be useful in situations where resources are limited. Through this study, aspect-based sentiments can be more accurately analyzed. Through various uses in business, such as development or establishing marketing strategies, both consumers and sellers will be able to make efficient decisions. In addition, it is believed that the model can be fully learned and utilized by small businesses, those that do not have much data, given that they use a pre-training model and recorded a relatively high F1-score even with limited resources.

DEVELOPMENT OF STATEWIDE TRUCK TRAFFIC FORECASTING METHOD BY USING LIMITED O-D SURVEY DATA (한정된 O-D조사자료를 이용한 주 전체의 트럭교통예측방법 개발)

  • 박만배
    • Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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    • 1995.02a
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    • pp.101-113
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    • 1995
  • The objective of this research is to test the feasibility of developing a statewide truck traffic forecasting methodology for Wisconsin by using Origin-Destination surveys, traffic counts, classification counts, and other data that are routinely collected by the Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT). Development of a feasible model will permit estimation of future truck traffic for every major link in the network. This will provide the basis for improved estimation of future pavement deterioration. Pavement damage rises exponentially as axle weight increases, and trucks are responsible for most of the traffic-induced damage to pavement. Consequently, forecasts of truck traffic are critical to pavement management systems. The pavement Management Decision Supporting System (PMDSS) prepared by WisDOT in May 1990 combines pavement inventory and performance data with a knowledge base consisting of rules for evaluation, problem identification and rehabilitation recommendation. Without a r.easonable truck traffic forecasting methodology, PMDSS is not able to project pavement performance trends in order to make assessment and recommendations in the future years. However, none of WisDOT's existing forecasting methodologies has been designed specifically for predicting truck movements on a statewide highway network. For this research, the Origin-Destination survey data avaiiable from WisDOT, including two stateline areas, one county, and five cities, are analyzed and the zone-to'||'&'||'not;zone truck trip tables are developed. The resulting Origin-Destination Trip Length Frequency (00 TLF) distributions by trip type are applied to the Gravity Model (GM) for comparison with comparable TLFs from the GM. The gravity model is calibrated to obtain friction factor curves for the three trip types, Internal-Internal (I-I), Internal-External (I-E), and External-External (E-E). ~oth "macro-scale" calibration and "micro-scale" calibration are performed. The comparison of the statewide GM TLF with the 00 TLF for the macro-scale calibration does not provide suitable results because the available 00 survey data do not represent an unbiased sample of statewide truck trips. For the "micro-scale" calibration, "partial" GM trip tables that correspond to the 00 survey trip tables are extracted from the full statewide GM trip table. These "partial" GM trip tables are then merged and a partial GM TLF is created. The GM friction factor curves are adjusted until the partial GM TLF matches the 00 TLF. Three friction factor curves, one for each trip type, resulting from the micro-scale calibration produce a reasonable GM truck trip model. A key methodological issue for GM. calibration involves the use of multiple friction factor curves versus a single friction factor curve for each trip type in order to estimate truck trips with reasonable accuracy. A single friction factor curve for each of the three trip types was found to reproduce the 00 TLFs from the calibration data base. Given the very limited trip generation data available for this research, additional refinement of the gravity model using multiple mction factor curves for each trip type was not warranted. In the traditional urban transportation planning studies, the zonal trip productions and attractions and region-wide OD TLFs are available. However, for this research, the information available for the development .of the GM model is limited to Ground Counts (GC) and a limited set ofOD TLFs. The GM is calibrated using the limited OD data, but the OD data are not adequate to obtain good estimates of truck trip productions and attractions .. Consequently, zonal productions and attractions are estimated using zonal population as a first approximation. Then, Selected Link based (SELINK) analyses are used to adjust the productions and attractions and possibly recalibrate the GM. The SELINK adjustment process involves identifying the origins and destinations of all truck trips that are assigned to a specified "selected link" as the result of a standard traffic assignment. A link adjustment factor is computed as the ratio of the actual volume for the link (ground count) to the total assigned volume. This link adjustment factor is then applied to all of the origin and destination zones of the trips using that "selected link". Selected link based analyses are conducted by using both 16 selected links and 32 selected links. The result of SELINK analysis by u~ing 32 selected links provides the least %RMSE in the screenline volume analysis. In addition, the stability of the GM truck estimating model is preserved by using 32 selected links with three SELINK adjustments, that is, the GM remains calibrated despite substantial changes in the input productions and attractions. The coverage of zones provided by 32 selected links is satisfactory. Increasing the number of repetitions beyond four is not reasonable because the stability of GM model in reproducing the OD TLF reaches its limits. The total volume of truck traffic captured by 32 selected links is 107% of total trip productions. But more importantly, ~ELINK adjustment factors for all of the zones can be computed. Evaluation of the travel demand model resulting from the SELINK adjustments is conducted by using screenline volume analysis, functional class and route specific volume analysis, area specific volume analysis, production and attraction analysis, and Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) analysis. Screenline volume analysis by using four screenlines with 28 check points are used for evaluation of the adequacy of the overall model. The total trucks crossing the screenlines are compared to the ground count totals. L V/GC ratios of 0.958 by using 32 selected links and 1.001 by using 16 selected links are obtained. The %RM:SE for the four screenlines is inversely proportional to the average ground count totals by screenline .. The magnitude of %RM:SE for the four screenlines resulting from the fourth and last GM run by using 32 and 16 selected links is 22% and 31 % respectively. These results are similar to the overall %RMSE achieved for the 32 and 16 selected links themselves of 19% and 33% respectively. This implies that the SELINICanalysis results are reasonable for all sections of the state.Functional class and route specific volume analysis is possible by using the available 154 classification count check points. The truck traffic crossing the Interstate highways (ISH) with 37 check points, the US highways (USH) with 50 check points, and the State highways (STH) with 67 check points is compared to the actual ground count totals. The magnitude of the overall link volume to ground count ratio by route does not provide any specific pattern of over or underestimate. However, the %R11SE for the ISH shows the least value while that for the STH shows the largest value. This pattern is consistent with the screenline analysis and the overall relationship between %RMSE and ground count volume groups. Area specific volume analysis provides another broad statewide measure of the performance of the overall model. The truck traffic in the North area with 26 check points, the West area with 36 check points, the East area with 29 check points, and the South area with 64 check points are compared to the actual ground count totals. The four areas show similar results. No specific patterns in the L V/GC ratio by area are found. In addition, the %RMSE is computed for each of the four areas. The %RMSEs for the North, West, East, and South areas are 92%, 49%, 27%, and 35% respectively, whereas, the average ground counts are 481, 1383, 1532, and 3154 respectively. As for the screenline and volume range analyses, the %RMSE is inversely related to average link volume. 'The SELINK adjustments of productions and attractions resulted in a very substantial reduction in the total in-state zonal productions and attractions. The initial in-state zonal trip generation model can now be revised with a new trip production's trip rate (total adjusted productions/total population) and a new trip attraction's trip rate. Revised zonal production and attraction adjustment factors can then be developed that only reflect the impact of the SELINK adjustments that cause mcreases or , decreases from the revised zonal estimate of productions and attractions. Analysis of the revised production adjustment factors is conducted by plotting the factors on the state map. The east area of the state including the counties of Brown, Outagamie, Shawano, Wmnebago, Fond du Lac, Marathon shows comparatively large values of the revised adjustment factors. Overall, both small and large values of the revised adjustment factors are scattered around Wisconsin. This suggests that more independent variables beyond just 226; population are needed for the development of the heavy truck trip generation model. More independent variables including zonal employment data (office employees and manufacturing employees) by industry type, zonal private trucks 226; owned and zonal income data which are not available currently should be considered. A plot of frequency distribution of the in-state zones as a function of the revised production and attraction adjustment factors shows the overall " adjustment resulting from the SELINK analysis process. Overall, the revised SELINK adjustments show that the productions for many zones are reduced by, a factor of 0.5 to 0.8 while the productions for ~ relatively few zones are increased by factors from 1.1 to 4 with most of the factors in the 3.0 range. No obvious explanation for the frequency distribution could be found. The revised SELINK adjustments overall appear to be reasonable. The heavy truck VMT analysis is conducted by comparing the 1990 heavy truck VMT that is forecasted by the GM truck forecasting model, 2.975 billions, with the WisDOT computed data. This gives an estimate that is 18.3% less than the WisDOT computation of 3.642 billions of VMT. The WisDOT estimates are based on the sampling the link volumes for USH, 8TH, and CTH. This implies potential error in sampling the average link volume. The WisDOT estimate of heavy truck VMT cannot be tabulated by the three trip types, I-I, I-E ('||'&'||'pound;-I), and E-E. In contrast, the GM forecasting model shows that the proportion ofE-E VMT out of total VMT is 21.24%. In addition, tabulation of heavy truck VMT by route functional class shows that the proportion of truck traffic traversing the freeways and expressways is 76.5%. Only 14.1% of total freeway truck traffic is I-I trips, while 80% of total collector truck traffic is I-I trips. This implies that freeways are traversed mainly by I-E and E-E truck traffic while collectors are used mainly by I-I truck traffic. Other tabulations such as average heavy truck speed by trip type, average travel distance by trip type and the VMT distribution by trip type, route functional class and travel speed are useful information for highway planners to understand the characteristics of statewide heavy truck trip patternS. Heavy truck volumes for the target year 2010 are forecasted by using the GM truck forecasting model. Four scenarios are used. Fo~ better forecasting, ground count- based segment adjustment factors are developed and applied. ISH 90 '||'&'||' 94 and USH 41 are used as example routes. The forecasting results by using the ground count-based segment adjustment factors are satisfactory for long range planning purposes, but additional ground counts would be useful for USH 41. Sensitivity analysis provides estimates of the impacts of the alternative growth rates including information about changes in the trip types using key routes. The network'||'&'||'not;based GMcan easily model scenarios with different rates of growth in rural versus . . urban areas, small versus large cities, and in-state zones versus external stations. cities, and in-state zones versus external stations.

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