• 제목/요약/키워드: Multi-Hazard

검색결과 214건 처리시간 0.023초

Comparison between Parametric and Semi-parametric Cox Models in Modeling Transition Rates of a Multi-state Model: Application in Patients with Gastric Cancer Undergoing Surgery at the Iran Cancer Institute

  • Zare, Ali;Mahmoodi, Mahmood;Mohammad, Kazem;Zeraati, Hojjat;Hosseini, Mostafa;Naieni, Kourosh Holakouie
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제14권11호
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    • pp.6751-6755
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    • 2013
  • Background: Research on cancers with a high rate of mortality such as those occurring in the stomach requires using models which can provide a closer examination of disease processes and provide researchers with more accurate data. Various models have been designed based on this issue and the present study aimed at evaluating such models. Materials and Methods: Data from 330 patients with gastric cancer undergoing surgery at Iran Cancer Institute from 1995 to 1999 were analyzed. Cox-Snell Residuals and Akaike Information Criterion were used to compare parametric and semi-parametric Cox models in modeling transition rates among different states of a multi-state model. R 2.15.1 software was used for all data analyses. Results: Analysis of Cox-Snell Residuals and Akaike Information Criterion for all probable transitions among different states revealed that parametric models represented a better fitness. Log-logistic, Gompertz and Log-normal models were good choices for modeling transition rate for relapse hazard (state $1{\rightarrow}state$ 2), death hazard without a relapse (state $1{\rightarrow}state$ 3) and death hazard with a relapse (state $2{\rightarrow}state$ 3), respectively. Conclusions: Although the semi-parametric Cox model is often used by most cancer researchers in modeling transition rates of multistate models, parametric models in similar situations- as they do not need proportional hazards assumption and consider a specific statistical distribution for time to occurrence of next state in case this assumption is not made - are more credible alternatives.

위험물 수송 최적경로 탐색 알고리즘 개발: Efficient Vector Labeling 방법으로 (An Algorithm for Searching Pareto Optimal Paths of HAZMAT Transportation: Efficient Vector Labeling Approach)

  • 박동주;정성봉;오정택
    • 한국방재학회 논문집
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    • 제11권3호
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    • pp.49-56
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    • 2011
  • 본 연구는 위험물 수송의 최적경로를 결정하는 방법론을 제안하였다. 위험물 차량의 최적경로를 결정할 때에는 위험도 최소화를 목적으로 하는 공공의 입장과 통행시간 최소화를 목적으로 하는 민간기업의 입장이 서로 상충한다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 다기준 의사결정(Multi-criteria decision making)문제 중 하나인 위험물 수송용 최적경로를 탐색하는 방법론으로 Efficient Vector Labeling(이하 EVL) 알고리즘을 제시하였다. EVL 알고리즘은 위험도와 통행시간을 동시에 고려하여 복수의 Pareto optimal 경로(또는 비지배경로)를 탐색하게 한다. 본 연구는 또한 탐색된 비지배경로간의 중복도를 제어할 수 있도록 설계하였다. 개발된 Efficient Vector Labeling 알고리즘을 Test bed network에 적용하여 기존의 경로탐색 방법론과 비교하였다. 적용 결과 새로운 알고리즘이 기존의 알고리즘보다 합리적인 대안경로를 탐색할 수 있는 것으로 분석되었다.

The Application of Resettable Device to Semi-Active Tuned Mass Damper Building Systems for Multi-level Seismic Hazard Mitigation

  • Chey, Min-Ho
    • Architectural research
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    • 제14권3호
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    • pp.99-108
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    • 2012
  • An innovative multi-story Semi-Active Tuned Mass Damper (SATMD) building system is proposed to control seismic response of existing structures. The application of adding new stories as large tuned mass and semi-active (SA) resettable actuators as central features of the control scheme is derived. For the effective control of the structures, the optimal tuning parameters are considered for the large mass ratio, for which a previously proposed equation is used and the practical optimal stiffness is allocated to the actuator stiffness and rubber bearing stiffness. A two-degree-of freedom (2-DOF) model is adopted to verify the principal efficiency of the suggested structural control concept. The simulations for this study utilizes the three ground motions, from SAC project, having probability of exceedance of 50% in 50 years, 10% in 50 years, and 2% in 50 years for the Los Angeles region. 12-story moment resisting frames, which are modified as '12+2' and '12+4' story structures, are investigated to assess the viability and effectiveness of the system that aims to reduce the response of the buildings to earthquakes. The control ability of the SATMD scheme is compared to that of an uncontrolled and an ideal Passive Tuned Mass Damper (PTMD) building system. From the performance results of suggested '12+2' and '12+4' story retrofitting case studies, SATMD systems shows significant promise for application of structural control where extra stories might be added.

Effects of Uncertain Spatial Data Representation on Multi-source Data Fusion: A Case Study for Landslide Hazard Mapping

  • Park No-Wook;Chi Kwang-Hoon;Kwon Byung-Doo
    • 대한원격탐사학회지
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    • 제21권5호
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    • pp.393-404
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    • 2005
  • As multi-source spatial data fusion mainly deal with various types of spatial data which are specific representations of real world with unequal reliability and incomplete knowledge, proper data representation and uncertainty analysis become more important. In relation to this problem, this paper presents and applies an advanced data representation methodology for different types of spatial data such as categorical and continuous data. To account for the uncertainties of both categorical data and continuous data, fuzzy boundary representation and smoothed kernel density estimation within a fuzzy logic framework are adopted, respectively. To investigate the effects of those data representation on final fusion results, a case study for landslide hazard mapping was carried out on multi-source spatial data sets from Jangheung, Korea. The case study results obtained from the proposed schemes were compared with the results obtained by traditional crisp boundary representation and categorized continuous data representation methods. From the case study results, the proposed scheme showed improved prediction rates than traditional methods and different representation setting resulted in the variation of prediction rates.

다양한 기후변화 시나리오와 기후모델에 의한 남한지역 미래가뭄의 확률론적 전망 (Projection of Future Drought of Korea Based on Probabilistic Approach Using Multi-model and Multi Climate Change Scenarios)

  • 박범섭;이주헌;김창주;장호원
    • 대한토목학회논문집
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    • 제33권5호
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    • pp.1871-1885
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    • 2013
  • 본 연구에서는 다양한 기후변화 시나리오를 적용한 GCM으로부터 생산된 기상자료를 이용하여 남한지역 미래가뭄의 시공간적인 분포를 전망하였다. 가뭄을 정량적으로 분석하기 위하여 SPI(Standardized Precipitation Index)를 가뭄지수로 이용하였으며 가뭄빈도해석을 통하여 54개 기상관측소별 SDF(Severity-Duration-Fraquency) 곡선을 유도하여 남한지역의 지속기간별, 재현기간별 가뭄우심지역을 지도화하였다. 가뭄우심도에 의한 미래 가뭄전망 결과, 낙동강, 섬진강 유역이 과거와 동일하게 다른 유역에 비하여 가뭄이 심화될 것으로 전망되었으며 한강유역 역시 가뭄이 심화될 것으로 나타났다. 미래의 경우 A2 시나리오에서는 과거에 비해 낙동강 동해 유역에도 가뭄이 심화되는 지역이 확장되는 것으로 나타났으며 RCP8.5 시나리오에서는 중부지역에 위치한 한강유역의 가뭄이 심화될 것으로 예측되었다. 연구결과를 통해 미래 가뭄은 과거와 같이 남부지방에 국한되지 않고 한반도 전역에 걸쳐 광범위하게 나타날 것으로 전망되었고 기후변화 시나리오별, 기후모델별로 다소의 전망 차이를 나타내었다.

Researches Related to Seismic Hazard Mitigation in Taiwan

  • Loh, Chin-Hsiung;Yeh, Chin-Hsun
    • 한국지진공학회논문집
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    • 제2권3호
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    • pp.13-26
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    • 1998
  • In view of the rapid development of economics and technology, perilous meteorological and geological conditions often cause natural disasters and result in severe loss of lives and properties in Taiwan. To promote multi-hazard mitigation strategies in an integrated a, pp.oach, the National Science Council established a National Science and Technology Program for Disaster Mitigation in January 1998. This program emphasizes on the implementation of research results in the National Disaster Management System. This paper describes the earthquake loss estimation methodology that is currently developed in Taiwan. Topics of potential earth science hazards (PESH) and building vulnerability analysis are described in detail.

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UsN 기반의 송전철탑 건전성 감시진단시스템 기본설계 (UsN based Soundness Monitoring Diagnosis System of Power Transmission Steel Tower)

  • 이동철;배을록;김우정;민병운
    • 전기학회논문지P
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    • 제56권1호
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    • pp.56-62
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    • 2007
  • In this paper, design method for power tower hazard diagnosis/predition system based on UsN was proposed. The proposed method used multi-hybrid sensors to measure rotation, displacement, and inclination state of power tower, and made decision/prediction of hazard of power tower. System design was made with requirement analysis of monitoring for transmission power facility and use of MEMS and optic fiber sensors. For hazard decision, analysis of correlation was made using sensor output. LN based on IEC61850,international standard for digital substation, was also proposed. For transmission facility monitoring, digital substation and power tower were considered as parts of power facility networks.

Kullback-Leibler Information of Consecutive Order Statistics

  • Kim, Ilmun;Park, Sangun
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제22권5호
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    • pp.487-494
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    • 2015
  • A calculation of the Kullback-Leibler information of consecutive order statistics is complicated because it depends on a multi-dimensional integral. Park (2014) discussed a representation of the Kullback-Leibler information of the first r order statistics in terms of the hazard function and simplified the r-fold integral to a single integral. In this paper, we first express the Kullback-Leibler information in terms of the reversed hazard function. Then we establish a generalized result of Park (2014) to an arbitrary consecutive order statistics. We derive a single integral form of the Kullback-Leibler information of an arbitrary block of order statistics; in addition, its relation to the Fisher information of order statistics is discussed with numerical examples provided.

다목적함수를 이용한 PDM 모형의 유량 분석 (Prediction of Stream Flow on Probability Distributed Model using Multi-objective Function)

  • 안상억;이효상;전민우
    • 한국방재학회 논문집
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    • 제9권5호
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    • pp.93-102
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    • 2009
  • 본 연구는 미호천 유역을 대상으로 유량곡선의 세부적인 특성을 고려한 다목적함수를 적용하여 Probability Distribution Model(PDM) 모형의 유량모의성능을 검토하였다. PDM은 유역을 한 개의 단위구역으로 개념화한 집중형 강우유출모형으로 영국의 지역화 연구 및 홍수량 산정방법에 대표적으로 이용되고 있다. PDM 모형의 5개 매개변수를 Monte Carlo 방법에 기반을 둔 분석도구(MCAT, Monte Carlo Analysis Toolkit)를 활용하여 사후검정분포, 검정근거 및 민감도 분석 등을 수행하였으며, 모형의 매개변수 중 cmax와 k(q)만이 뚜렷한 검정 근거가 있고 나머지 변수들은 동등성의 영향을 확인하였다. 또한, 유량곡선의 고유량 및 저유량의 특성을 맞춘 목적함수의 Trade-off를 고려한 매개변수의 파레토 최적해를 산정한 결과, 모든 목적에 최대한 부합하는 유량 산정의 가능성을 제시하였다. 검정(calibration)기간에서 NS*E=0.035, FSB=0.161, FDBH= 0.809로 안정적이며 만족할만한 모의성능을 나타내었고, 검증(validation)기간에 대해서도 안정적인 모의성능을 나타내었다.

외국의 코호트 연구 현황

  • 조성일
    • 대한예방의학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한예방의학회 2003년도 제11회 춘계 심포지움 연제집
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    • pp.30-37
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    • 2003
  • o Cohort study became the major approach to study of chronic diseases such as CVD and cancer o Cohort can be population-based or volunteer-based o Types of be population-be categorized by source population and selection mechanism o More and more cohort studies involve biological specimens, such as blood, urine, toenail, cheek cells, etc. o Multi-center and multi-national collaboration is an effective way to increase sample size. o Current statistical method typically use time-to-event analysis by Cox proportional hazard model.

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