• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제27권4호
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• pp.337-344
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• 2001

As cost invested in developing the specified technology is increasing, investors are paying more attention to cost to benefit analysis (CBA). One of the basic elements of CBA for new technological development is the diffusion pattern of demand of such technology. Many studies of technology evaluation have adopted a single generation model to simulate the diffusion pattern of demand. This approach, however, considers the diffusion of the new technology itself, not taking into account a newer generation that can replace the one just invented. In this paper, we show how a multi-generation technology diffusion model can be applied for more accurate CBA for information technology. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to find influential factors on the CBA of a Cybernetic Building System.

• 한국전자거래학회지
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• 제17권2호
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• pp.63-72
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• 2012

2000년대 초반부터 한국의 이동통신시장은 급속하게 팽창해 왔으며, 최근 들어 그 성장 속도가 둔화되고 있으나 성장은 계속 진행 중에 있다. 이와 같은 환경에서 4세대 이동통신 서비스가 2011년 10월부터 시작되어 3세대 서비스와 4세대 서비스가 함께 존재하고 이를 통해 이동통신시장의 경쟁구도가 더욱 복잡하고 치열한 상황이 되었다. 본 연구는 다세대 확산 모형을 활용하여 3세대 및 4세대 이동통신 서비스 가입자 규모를 예측하는데 목적이 있다. 이를 위해 세 개의 파라미터, 즉 Norton and Bass 모형[11]에서 사용되는 혁신계수, 모방계수 및 포화수준계수의 값을 추정하기 위해 3세대에서 4세대로 대체되는 서비스 대체의 유사 사례를 역추적하는 방법을 사용하였다. 시뮬레이션 결과, 다세대 확산모형과 유사사례 추론을 통해 신규서비스인 4세대 이동통신서비스 시장규모를 성공적으로 예측할 수 있었다는 결론을 얻었다.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제29권1호
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• pp.87-99
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• 2004

In this paper, we have developed a technology-service relationship model which describes the diffusion process of a group of services and relevant technologies, and have applied the developed model to the prediction of the number of subscribers to the next generation mobile service. The technology-service relationship model developed in this paper incorporates the developing process of relevant technologies, a supply-side factor, into the diffusion process of specific services, while many diffusion models and multi-generation diffusion models in previous researches are mainly reflect the demand-side factors. So, the proposed model could effectively applied to the telecommunication services where the developing of the relevant technologies are very essential to the service Penetration. In our application, the Proposed model provides a competitive substitution between the next generation mobile service and the traditional mobile service.

• 기술경영경제학회:학술대회논문집
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• 기술경영경제학회 2003년도 제22회 동계학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.173-190
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• 2003

수요예측은 국가와 기업의 전략수립과 효율적인 자원활용에 있어서 필수적인 사전기획요소이다. 본 논문은 이산선택모델과 확산모델을 복합적으로 고려하여 다세대 제품의 수요를 예측하였다. 이산선택모델은 정적인 관점에서 소비자들의 제품에 대한 평가를 분석하는 모델이다. 본 논문에서는 이러한 이산선택모델에 수요의 동적인 변화양상을 고려할 수 있는 확산모델을 결합하였다. 실증분석으로서 1999년에서 2005년까지의 세계 DRAM시장 수요를 예측하였다. 또한, DRAM의 가격과 기억용량에 대해 '무어의 법칙' 과 '학습곡선'을 각각 적용한 기술예측을 시도하였으며, 이를 바탕으로 보다 정교한 예측모델을 전개하였다. 제시된 모델은 산업수준의 자료를 이용하였으므로, 이산선택모델을 inversion 하여 분석을 시도하였다. 이를 통해 기존세대의 DRAM 제품에 대한 수요뿐만 아니라, 새로운 세대의 DRAM 제품에 대한 수요를 비교적 정확히 예측할 수 있었다.

• 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국경영과학회 2003년도 추계학술대회 및 정기총회
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• pp.74-78
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• 2003

In this paper, we have developed a technology-service relationship model which describes the diffusion process of a group of services and relevant technologies, and have applied the developed model to the prediction of the number of subscribers to the next generation mobile service. The technology-service relationship model developed in this paper incorporates the developing process of relevant technologies, a supply-side factor, into the diffusion process of specific services, while many diffusion models and multi-generation diffusion models in previous researches are mainly reflect the demand-side factors. So, the proposed model could effectively applied to the telecommunication services where the developing of the relevant technologies are very essential to the service penetration. In our application, the proposed model provides a competitive substitution between the next generation mobile service and the traditional mobile service.

• 스마트미디어저널
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• 제13권2호
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• pp.9-15
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• 2024

본 논문에서는 신용 예측에서 발생하는 불균형 문제를 해결하기 위해 Diffusion Multi-step Classifier(DMC)를 제안한다. DMC는 Diffusion Model을 통해 신용 예측 데이터의 연속적인 수치형 데이터들을 생성하고 생성된 데이터들을 Multi-step Classifier로 구분하는 것으로 범주형 데이터를 생성한다. DMC를 통해 기존의 데이터를 생성하는 다른 알고리즘보다 실제 데이터와 유사한 분포를 가지는 데이터를 생성할 수 있었다. 이렇게 생성된 데이터를 사용하여 실험을 진행하였을 때 연체를 예측할 확률이 20%이상 상승하였으며, 전체적으로 예측 정확성은 약 4%정도 상승하였다. 이러한 연구 결과는 실제 금융기관에 적용 시 연체율 감소와 수익 증가에 큰 기여를 할 수 있을것으로 예상된다.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• 제24권2호
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• pp.81-96
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• 2017

Forecasting long-term mobile service demand is inevitable to establish an effective frequency management policy despite the lack of reliability of forecast results. The statistical forecasting method has limitations in analyzing how the forecasting result changes when the scenario for various drivers such as consumer usage pattern or market structure for mobile communication service is changed. In this study, we propose a dynamic model of the mobile communication service market using system dynamics technique and forecast the future demand for long-term mobile communication subscriber based on the dynamic model, and also experiment on the change pattern of subscriber demand under various scenarios.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제57권6호
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• pp.1-7
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• 2015

Most of chloride diffusion models based on finite difference method (FDM) could not express the diffusion in horizontal direction at each elevation. To overcome these weakness, two dimensional chloride ion penetration model based on finite element method (FEM) to be able to combine various multi-physics simultaneously was suggested by introducing moving mesh technique. To avoid the generation of mesh being able to be distorted depending on the relative movement of water level to static concrete, a rectangular type of mesh was intentionally adopted and the total number of meshes was empirically selected. The simulated results showed that the contents of surface chloride decreased following to the increase of elevation in the top part of low sea level, whereas there were no changes in the bottom part of low level. In the DuraCrete model, the diffusion coefficient of splashed zone is generally smaller than submerged zone, whereas the trend of Life365 model is reverse. Therefore, it could be understood that the developed model using moving mesh technique effectively reflects $DuraCrete^{TM}$ model rather than $Life365^{TM}$ model. In the future, the model will be easily expanded to be combined with various multi-physics models considering water evaporation, heat of hydration, irradiation effect of sun and so on because it is based on FEM.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 10th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.455-462
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• 2024

In the construction industry, known for its dynamic and hazardous environments, there exists a crucial demand for effective safety incident prevention. Traditional approaches to monitoring on-site safety, despite their importance, suffer from being laborious and heavily reliant on subjective, paper-based reports, which results in inefficiencies and fragmented data. Additionally, the incorporation of computer vision technologies for automated safety monitoring encounters a significant obstacle due to the lack of suitable training datasets. This challenge is due to the rare availability of safety accident images or videos and concerns over security and privacy violations. Consequently, this paper explores an innovative method to address the shortage of safety-related datasets in the construction sector by employing generative artificial intelligence (AI), specifically focusing on the Stable Diffusion model. Utilizing real-world construction accident scenarios, this method aims to generate photorealistic images to enrich training datasets for safety surveillance applications using computer vision. By systematically generating accident prompts, employing static prompts in empirical experiments, and compiling datasets with Stable Diffusion, this research bypasses the constraints of conventional data collection techniques in construction safety. The diversity and realism of the produced images hold considerable promise for tasks such as object detection and action recognition, thus improving safety measures. This study proposes future avenues for broadening scenario coverage, refining the prompt generation process, and merging artificial datasets with machine learning models for superior safety monitoring.

• 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국신재생에너지학회 2008년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.33-36
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• 2008

The transient behavior of a passive air breathing direct methanol fuel cell (DMFC) operated on vapor-feeding mode is studied in this paper. It generally takes 30 minutes after starting for the cell response to come to its steady-state and the response is sometimes unstable. A mathematical dynamic one-dimensional model for simulating transient response of the DMFC is presented. In this model a DMFC is decomposed into its subsystems using lumped model and divided into five layers, namely the anodic diffusion layer, the anodic catalyst layer, the proton exchange membrane (PEM), the cathodic catalyst layer and the cathodic diffusion layer. All layers are considered to have finite thickness, and within every one of them a set of differential-algebraic governing equations are given to represent multi-components mass balance, such as methanol, water, oxygen and carbon dioxide, charge balance, the electrochemical reaction and mass transport phenomena. A one-dimensional, isothermal and mass transport model is developed that captures the coupling between water generation and transport, oxygen consumption and natural convection. The single cell is supplied by pure methanol vapor from a methanol reservoir at the anode, and the oxygen is supplied via natural air-breathing at the cathode. The water is not supplied from external source because the cell uses the water created at the cathode using water back diffusion through nafion membrane. As a result of simulation strong effects of water transport were found out. The model analysis provides several conclusions. The performance drop after peak point is caused by insufficiency of water at the anode. The excess water at the cathode makes performance recovery impossible. The undesired crossover of the reactant methanol through the PEM causes overpotential at the cathode and limits the feeding methanol concentration.