• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.18-26
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• 2015

This study is a fundamental research to suggest a forecasting model for short-term railway passenger demand focusing on major lines (Gyeungbu, Honam, Jeonla, Janghang, Jungang) of Saemaeul rail and Mugunghwa rail. Also the author tried to verify the potential application of the proposed models. For this study, SARIMA model considering characteristics of seasonal trip is basically used, and daily mean forecasting models are independently constructed depending on weekday/weekend in order to consider characteristics of weekday/weekend trip and a legal holiday trip. Furthermore, intervention events having an impact on using the train such as introduction of new lines or EXPO are reflected in the model to increase reliability of the model. Finally, proposed models are confirmed to have high accuracy and reliability by verifying predictability of models. The proposed models of this research will be expected to utilize for establishing a plan for short-term operation of lines.