• Title/Summary/Keyword: Moving Average Method

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Characteristics of Real-road Driving NOx Emissions from Korean Light-duty Vehicles regarding Driving Routes (주행경로에 따른 국내 소형자동차 실제도로 주행 질소산화물 배출량 특성)

  • Oak, Seonil;Eom, Myoungdo;Lee, Jongtae;Park, Junhong;Kim, Jichul;Chon, Mun Soo
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.130-138
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    • 2015
  • Despite of recently strengthened vehicle emission regulations, NOx emissions are not decreased in urban areas because of discrepancies between certification emission test modes and real driving conditions. Thus, researches on RDE-LDV (Real-driving Emission-Light-duty Vehicle) have been conducted actively using PEMS (Portable Emissions Measurement Systems). In the present study, NOx emissions were measured for 5 Korean light duty vehicles for real driving conditions including city, combined, highway, and up-downhill test route. Emission characteristics were analyzed for averaged NOx emissions per unit driving distance of each driving test routes. Furthermore, MAW (Moving Average Window) method based on $CO_2$ emissions from WLTC, which will be supported for EU regulations, was utilized. It was revealed that DRs (deviation ratios) for diesel vehicles (i.e., 5.1 ~ 8.4) were greater than gasoline vehicles (less than 0.15). Especially DR of diesel vehicle for up-downhill test route was 8.4, which indicates severe NOx emissions.

X11ARIMA Procedure (한국형 X11ARIMA 프로시져에 관한 연구)

  • 박유성;최현희
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.335-350
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    • 1998
  • X11ARIMA is established on the basis of X11 which is one of smoothing approach in time series area and this procedure was introduced by Bureau of Census of United States and developed by Dagum(1975). This procedure had been updated and adjusted by Dagum(1988) with 174 economic index of North America and has been used until nowadays. Recently, X12ARIMA procedure has been studied by William Bell et.al. (1995) and Chen. & Findly(1995) whose approaches adapt adjusting outliers, Trend-change effects, seasonal effect, arid Calender effect. However, both of these procedures were implemented for correct adjusting the economic index of North America. This article starts with providing some appropriate and effective ARIMA model for 102 indexes produced by national statistical office in Korea; which consists of production(21), shipping(27), stock(27), and operating rate index(21). And a reasonable smoothing method will be proposed to reflect the specificity of Korean economy using several moving average model. In addition, Sulnal(lunar happy new year) and Chusuk effects will be extracted from the indexes above and both of effects reflect contribution of lunar calender effect. Finally, we will discuss an alternative way to estimate holiday effect which is similar to X12ARIMA procedure in concept of using both of ARIMA model and Regression model for the best fitness.

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Larval Gnathostomes and Spargana in Chinese Edible Frogs, Hoplobatrachus rugulosus, from Myanmar: Potential Risk of Human Infection

  • Chai, Jong-Yil;Jung, Bong-Kwang;Ryu, in-Youp;Kim, Hyun-Seung;Hong, Sung-Jong;Htoon, Thi Thi;Tin, Htay Htay;Na, Byoung-Kuk;Sohn, Woon-Mok
    • Parasites, Hosts and Diseases
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    • v.58 no.4
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    • pp.467-473
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    • 2020
  • Chinese edible frogs, Hoplobatrachus rugulosus, were examined to estimate the potential risks of human gnathostomiasis and sparganosis in Myanmar. A total of 20 frogs were purchased in a local market of Yangon and examined with naked eyes and the artificial digestion method after skin peeling in June 2018 and June 2019. Larvae of gnathostomes and Spirometra (=spargana) were detected in 15 (75.0%) and 15 (75.0%) frogs with average intensities of 10.5 and 6.3 larvae per infected frog, respectively. Gnathostome larvae were 2.75-3.80 (av. 3.30) mm long and 0.29-0.36 (0.33) mm wide. They had a characteristic head bulb with 4 rows of hooklets, a muscular long esophagus, and 2 pairs of cervical sac. The mean number of hooklets were 41, 44, 47, and 50 on the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th row, respectively. Collected spargana were actively moving, particularly with the scolex part, and have ivory-white color and variable in size. Conclusively, it has been first confirmed that Chinese edible frogs, H. rugulosus, are highly infected with larval gnathostomes and spargana in this study. Consuming these frogs is considered a potential risk of human gnathostomiasis and sparganosis in Myanmar.

Port Volume Anomaly Detection Using Confidence Interval Estimation Based on Time Series Analysis (시계열 분석 기반 신뢰구간 추정을 활용한 항만 물동량 이상감지 방안)

  • Ha, Jun-Su;Na, Joon-Ho;Cho, Kwang-Hee;Ha, Hun-Koo
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.179-196
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    • 2021
  • Port congestion rate at Busan Port has increased for three years. Port congestion causes container reconditioning, which increases the dockyard labor's work intensity and ship owner's waiting time. If congestion is prolonged, it can cause a drop in port service levels. Therefore, this study proposed an anomaly detection method using ARIMA(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model with the daily volume data from 2013 to 2020. Most of the research that predicts port volume is mainly focusing on long-term forecasting. Furthermore, studies suggesting methods to utilize demand forecasting in terms of port operations are hard to find. Therefore, this study proposes a way to use daily demand forecasting for port anomaly detection to solve the congestion problem at Busan port.

Bivariate long range dependent time series forecasting using deep learning (딥러닝을 이용한 이변량 장기종속시계열 예측)

  • Kim, Jiyoung;Baek, Changryong
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.69-81
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    • 2019
  • We consider bivariate long range dependent (LRD) time series forecasting using a deep learning method. A long short-term memory (LSTM) network well-suited to time series data is applied to forecast bivariate time series; in addition, we compare the forecasting performance with bivariate fractional autoregressive integrated moving average (FARIMA) models. Out-of-sample forecasting errors are compared with various performance measures for functional MRI (fMRI) data and daily realized volatility data. The results show a subtle difference in the predicted values of the FIVARMA model and VARFIMA model. LSTM is computationally demanding due to hyper-parameter selection, but is more stable and the forecasting performance is competitively good to that of parametric long range dependent time series models.

Design Of Intrusion Detection System Using Background Machine Learning

  • Kim, Hyung-Hoon;Cho, Jeong-Ran
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.149-156
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    • 2019
  • The existing subtract image based intrusion detection system for CCTV digital images has a problem that it can not distinguish intruders from moving backgrounds that exist in the natural environment. In this paper, we tried to solve the problems of existing system by designing real - time intrusion detection system for CCTV digital image by combining subtract image based intrusion detection method and background learning artificial neural network technology. Our proposed system consists of three steps: subtract image based intrusion detection, background artificial neural network learning stage, and background artificial neural network evaluation stage. The final intrusion detection result is a combination of result of the subtract image based intrusion detection and the final intrusion detection result of the background artificial neural network. The step of subtract image based intrusion detection is a step of determining the occurrence of intrusion by obtaining a difference image between the background cumulative average image and the current frame image. In the background artificial neural network learning, the background is learned in a situation in which no intrusion occurs, and it is learned by dividing into a detection window unit set by the user. In the background artificial neural network evaluation, the learned background artificial neural network is used to produce background recognition or intrusion detection in the detection window unit. The proposed background learning intrusion detection system is able to detect intrusion more precisely than existing subtract image based intrusion detection system and adaptively execute machine learning on the background so that it can be operated as highly practical intrusion detection system.

Development of Real-time QRS-complex Detection Algorithm for Portable ECG Measurement Device (휴대용 심전도 측정장치를 위한 실시간 QRS-complex 검출 알고리즘 개발)

  • An, Hwi;Shim, Hyoung-Jin;Park, Jae-Soon;Lhm, Jong-Tae;Joung, Yeun-Ho
    • Journal of Biomedical Engineering Research
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.280-289
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    • 2022
  • In this paper, we present a QRS-complex detection algorithm to calculate an accurate heartbeat and clearly recognize irregular rhythm from ECG signals. The conventional Pan-Tompkins algorithm brings false QRS detection in the derivative when QRS and noise signals have similar instant variation. The proposed algorithm uses amplitude differences in 7 adjacent samples to detect QRS-complex which has the highest amplitude variation. The calculated amplitude is cubed to dominate QRS-complex and the moving average method is applied to diminish the noise signal's amplitude. Finally, a decision rule with a threshold value is applied to detect accurate QRS-complex. The calculated signals with Pan-Tompkins and proposed algorithms were compared by signal-to-noise ratio to evaluate the noise reduction degree. QRS-complex detection performance was confirmed by sensitivity and the positive predictive value(PPV). Normal ECG, muscle noise ECG, PVC, and atrial fibrillation signals were achieved which were measured from an ECG simulator. The signal-to-noise ratio difference between Pan-Tompkins and the proposed algorithm were 8.1, 8.5, 9.6, and 4.7, respectively. All ratio of the proposed algorithm is higher than the Pan-Tompkins values. It indicates that the proposed algorithm is more robust to noise than the Pan-Tompkins algorithm. The Pan-Tompkins algorithm and the proposed algorithm showed similar sensitivity and PPV at most waveforms. However, with a noisy atrial fibrillation signal, the PPV for QRS-complex has different values, 42% for the Pan-Tompkins algorithm and 100% for the proposed algorithm. It means that the proposed algorithm has superiority for QRS-complex detection in a noisy environment.

Improving SARIMA model for reliable meteorological drought forecasting

  • Jehanzaib, Muhammad;Shah, Sabab Ali;Son, Ho Jun;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.141-141
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    • 2022
  • Drought is a global phenomenon that affects almost all landscapes and causes major damages. Due to non-linear nature of contributing factors, drought occurrence and its severity is characterized as stochastic in nature. Early warning of impending drought can aid in the development of drought mitigation strategies and measures. Thus, drought forecasting is crucial in the planning and management of water resource systems. The primary objective of this study is to make improvement is existing drought forecasting techniques. Therefore, we proposed an improved version of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model (MD-SARIMA) for reliable drought forecasting with three years lead time. In this study, we selected four watersheds of Han River basin in South Korea to validate the performance of MD-SARIMA model. The meteorological data from 8 rain gauge stations were collected for the period 1973-2016 and converted into watershed scale using Thiessen's polygon method. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was employed to represent the meteorological drought at seasonal (3-month) time scale. The performance of MD-SARIMA model was compared with existing models such as Seasonal Naive Bayes (SNB) model, Exponential Smoothing (ES) model, Trigonometric seasonality, Box-Cox transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal components (TBATS) model, and SARIMA model. The results showed that all the models were able to forecast drought, but the performance of MD-SARIMA was robust then other statistical models with Wilmott Index (WI) = 0.86, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) = 0.66, and Root mean square error (RMSE) = 0.80 for 36 months lead time forecast. The outcomes of this study indicated that the MD-SARIMA model can be utilized for drought forecasting.

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A Meta-analysis of Ambient Air Pollution in Relation to Daily Mortality in Seoul, $1991\sim1995$ (메타분석 방법을 적용한 서울시 대기오염과 조기사망의 상관성 연구 (1991년$\sim$1995년))

  • Dockery, Douglas W.;Kim, Chun-Bae;Jee, Sun-Ha;Chung, Yong;Lee, Jong-Tae
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.177-182
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    • 1999
  • Objectives: To reexamine the association between air pollution and daily mortality in Seoul, Korea using a method of meta-analysis with the data filed for 1991 through 1995. Methods: A separate Poisson regression analysis on each district within the metropolitan area of Seoul was conducted to regress daily death counts on levels of each ambient air pollutant, such as total suspended particulates (TSP), sulfur dioxide $(SO_2)$, and ozone $(O_3)$, controlling for variability in the weather condition. We calculated a weighted mean as a meta-analysis summary of the estimates and its standard error. Results: We found that the p value from each pollutant model to test the homogeneity assumption was small (p<0.01) because of the large disparity among district-specific estimates. Therefore, all results reported here were estimated from the random effect model. Using the weighted mean that we calculated, the mortality at a $100{\mu}g/m^3$ increment in a 3-day moving average of TSP levels was 1.034 (95% Cl 1.009-1.059). The mortality was estimated to increase 6% (95% Cl 3-10%) and 3% (95% Cl 0-6%) with each 50 ppb increase for 9-day moving average of SO2 and 1-hr maximum O3, respectively. Conclusions: Like most of air pollution epidemiologic studies, this meta-analysis cannot avoid fleeing from measurement misclassification since no personal measurement was taken. However, we can expect that a measurement bias be reduced in a district-specific estimate since a monitoring station is hefter representative cf air quality of the matched district. The similar results to those from the previous studios indicated existence of health effect of air pollution at current levels in many industrialized countries, including Korea.

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Adaptive Subtraction Method for Removing Variable Powerline Interference of ECG (ECG 신호의 가변적인 전력선 잡음 제거를 위한 적응형 차감기법)

  • Jeon, Hong-Kyu;Cho, Ik-Sung;Kwon, Hyeog-Soong
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.447-454
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    • 2011
  • Power-line interference(PLI) can distort certain regions in analysing the ECG signal. In particular, the regions such as P and R wave that are important element in diagnosing with arrhythmia is expressed as different type of noise according to the case whether power-line frequency is multiples of sampling frequency and or not. Noise characteristics is also divided into linearity and non-linearity. In this paper, adaptive subtraction method for removing variable PLI of ECG signal is proposed. We classify the multiple relationship between power line and sampling frequency as Multiple and Non-multiple. PLI of Linear segment is extracted through moving average filter, PLI of non-linear segment is extracted through the interference component that is extracted in the linear segment and stored in the temporary buffer. The performance of P wave and R wave detection is evaluated by using 119 data record of MIT-BIH arrhythmia database. The achieved scores indicate P wave detection rate of 97.91%, R wave detection rate of 96.66% and P wave detection rate of 99.01%, R wave detection rate of 97.93% accuracy respectively for Notch filter and proposed subtraction method.