• Title/Summary/Keyword: Monthly performance simulation

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Estimating time-varying parameters for monthly water balance model using particle filter: assimilation of stream flow data (입자 필터를 이용한 월 물 수지 모형의 시간변화 매개변수 추정: 하천유량 자료의 동화)

  • Choi, Jeonghyeon;Kim, Sangdan
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.6
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    • pp.365-379
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    • 2021
  • Hydrological model parameters are essential for model simulation and can vary over time due to topography, climatic conditions, climate change and human activity. Consequently, the use of fixed parameters can lead to inaccurate stream flow simulations. The aim of this study is to investigate an appropriate method of estimating time-varying parameters using stream flow observations, and how the simulation efficiency changes when stream flow data are assimilated into the model. The data assimilation method can be used to automatically estimate the parameters of a hydrological model by adapting to a variety of changing environments. Stream flow observations were assimilated into a two parameter monthly water balance model using a particle filter. The simulation results using the time-varying parameters by the data assimilation method were compared with the simulation results using the fixed parameters by the SCEM method. First, we conducted synthesis experiments based on various scenarios to investigate if the particle filter method can adequately track parameters that change over time. After that, it was applied to actual watersheds and compared with the predictive performance of stream flow when using parameters that change with time and fixed parameters. The conclusions obtained through this study are as follows: (1) The predictive performance of the overall monthly stream flow time series was similar between the particle filter method and the SCEM method. (2) The monthly runoff prediction performance in the period except the rainy season was better in the simulation by the periodically changing parameters using the data assimilation method. (3) Uncertainty in the observational data of stream flow used for assimilation played an important role in the predictive performance of the particle filter.

Development of Operating Guidelines of a Multi-reservoir System Using an Artificial Neural Network Model (인공 신경망 모형을 활용한 저수지 군의 연계운영 기준 수립)

  • Na, Mi-Suk;Kim, Jae-Hee;Kim, Sheung-Kown
    • IE interfaces
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.311-318
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    • 2010
  • In the daily multi-reservoir operating problem, monthly storage targets can be used as principal operational guidelines. In this study, we tested the use of a simple back-propagation Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model to derive monthly storage guideline for daily Coordinated Multi-reservoir Operating Model (CoMOM) of the Han-River basin. This approach is based on the belief that the optimum solution of the daily CoMOM has a good performance, and the ANN model trained with the results of daily CoMOM would produce effective monthly operating guidelines. The optimum results of daily CoMOM is used as the training set for the back-propagation ANN model, which is designed to derive monthly reservoir storage targets in the basin. For the input patterns of the ANN model, we adopted the ratios of initial storage of each dam to the storage of Paldang dam, ratios of monthly expected inflow of each dam to the total inflow of the whole basin, ratios of monthly demand at each dam to the total demand of the whole basin, ratio of total storage of the whole basin to the active storage of Paldang dam, and the ratio of total inflow of the whole basin to the active storage of the whole basin. And the output pattern of ANN model is the optimal final storages that are generated by the daily CoMOM. Then, we analyzed the performance of the ANN model by using a real-time simulation procedure for the multi-reservoir system of the Han-river basin, assuming that historical inflows from October 1st, 2004 to June 30th, 2007 (except July, August, September) were occurred. The simulation results showed that by utilizing the monthly storage target provided by the ANN model, we could reduce the spillages, increase hydropower generation, and secure more water at the end of the planning horizon compared to the historical records.

A Study on the Thermal Performance of a Solar House by a Computer Simulation (태양열주택의 난방성능에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Sang-Chun
    • The Magazine of the Society of Air-Conditioning and Refrigerating Engineers of Korea
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.64-72
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    • 1978
  • The determination of solar collector area requires a thermal simulation to evaluate the performance of a solar house. This study comprises a simulation of system performance including a solar house, flat-plate collectors, a water type storage tank and an auxiliary heater. Developing the steady state performance equations of each equipment, and using the actual monthly average weather data for several recent years, this study evaluates the hourly performance of a solar house model. As a result, it is shown that the desirable collector area in Seoul is 1.4-1.6 times larger than the heating area in the case of non-selective surface, 0.8-1.0 times in the case of selective surface.

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Performance Prediction on the Application of a Ground-Source Heat Pump(GSHP) System in an Office Building (업무용 건물의 지열 히트펌프 시스템에 대한 성능 예측)

  • Sohn, Byonghu;Kwon, Han Sol
    • Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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    • v.26 no.9
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    • pp.409-415
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    • 2014
  • Ground-source heat pump (GSHP) systems have become an efficient alternative to conventional cooling and heating methods due to their higher energy efficiency. These systems use the ground as a heat source and the heat sink for cooling mode operation. The purpose of this simulation study is to evaluate the performance of a hypothetical GSHP system in an office building and to assess the energy saving effect against the existing HVAC systems (boiler and turbo chiller). We collected monthly energy consumption data from an actual office building ($32,488m^2$) in Seoul, and created a model to calculate the hourly building loads with EnergyPlus. In addition, we used GLD (Ground Loop Design) V8.0, a GSHP system design and simulation software tool, to evaluate hourly and monthly performance of the GSHP system. The energy consumption for the GSHP system based on the hourly simulation results were estimated to be 582.6 MWh/year for cooling and 593.2 MWh/year for heating, while those for the existing HVAC systems were found to be 674.5 MWh/year and 2,496.4 MWh/year, respectively. The seasonal performance factor (SPF) of the GSHP system was also calculated to be in the range of 3.37~4.28.

Simulation of Monthly Streamflow for the Soyang Basin Using Water And Snow balance MODeling System (융설을 고려한 물수지 모형을 이용한 소양강 댐 상류 유역의 월 유출량 산정)

  • Kim, Byung Sik;Jang, Dae Won;Seoh, Byung Ha;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2008
  • This study describes the WASMOD, water balance model which can consider the snowmelting. The pilot study basin is the Soyang River basin with outlet at Soyang Dam Site and compute long-term monthly streamflow, The advantage of the WASMOD is that the input data is simple and the user can operate easily. To optimize for the parameters of the model, the WASMOD used VA05A of automatic fitting technique. The observed and simulated monthly streamflow hydrographs were compared. The model performance on corrleation coefficient between the observed and the simulated streamflow for the verification periods was above 0.89. It was shown that the WASMOD reproduces the observed monthly streamflow hydrographs very well. This evidence suggests that the WASMOD might be appropriate for the simulation of monthly streamflow

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Performance Simulation of Ground-Coupled Heat Pump(GCHP) System for a Detached House (단독주택 적용 지열 히트펌프 시스템의 성능 분석)

  • Sohn, Byong-Hu;Choi, Jong-Min;Choi, Hang-Seok
    • Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.392-399
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    • 2011
  • Ground-coupled heat pump(GCHP) systems have been shown to be an environmentally-friendly, efficient alternative to traditional cooling and heating systems in both residential and commercial applications. Although some work related to performance evaluation of GCHP systems for commercial buildings has been done, relatively little has been reported on the residential applications. The aim of this study is to evaluate the cooling and heating performances of a vertical GCHP system applied to an artificial detached house($117\;m^2$) in Seoul. For this purpose, a typical design procedure was involved with a combination of design parameters such as building loads, heat pump capacity, borehole diameter, and ground thermal properties, etc. The cooling and heating performance simulation of the system was conducted with different prediction times of 8760 hours and 240 months. The performance characteristics including seasonal system COP, average annual power consumption, and temperature variations related to ground heat exchanger were calculated and compared.

Modeling Analysis for Thermal Performance of Solar Flat Plate Collector System Through a Year (평판형 태양열 집열기의 연중 열적 성능의 모델링 해석)

  • Kim, Gew Deok;Park, Bae Duck;Kim, Kyoung Hoon
    • Transactions of the Korean hydrogen and new energy society
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.541-549
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    • 2014
  • The monthly-average meteorological data, in particular, the monthly average daily terrestrial horizontal insolation are required for designing solar thermal energy systems. In this paper, the dynamic thermal performance of a flat plate solar collector system is numerically investigated through a year from the monthly average insolation data in Seoul. For a specified data set of solar collector system, the dynamic behaviors of total solar radiation on the tilted collector surfaces, heat loss from the collector system, useful energy and collector efficiency are analyzed from January to December by a mathematical simulation model. In addition, the monthly average daily total solar radiation, useful energy, and daily collector efficiencies through a year are estimated. The simulated results show that the average total radiation is highest in March and the useful energy is highest in October, while the total radiation and the collector efficiency are lowest in July.

The Analysis of Optimum Design Parameters for a Solar Space Heating System through Computer Simulation (시뮬레이션에 의한 태양열 난방의 최적설계에 관한 연구)

  • Seoh, Jeong-Il;Lee, Young-Soo
    • The Magazine of the Society of Air-Conditioning and Refrigerating Engineers of Korea
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.175-186
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    • 1985
  • This paper presents a method for estimating the useful output of solar space heating system and estimates their performance with variance of collector size, storage volume, collector tilt and other factors . The analysis is performed by the computer simulation and by 'running' conceptual systems against solar intensities and ambient temperature for a model year stored in a computer. System performance is analyzed on monthly and yearly basis respectively and at the same time, the economics of various systems are evaluated . And also, this paper shows how an optimized design can be selected for any locality for which solar data, economic parameters and system performance are provided. It is shown that storage volume of 75 liter per $m^2$ of solar collector lead to the best design.

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Development and Use of Digital Climate Models in Northern Gyunggi Province - II. Site-specific Performance Evaluation of Soybean Cultivars by DCM-based Growth Simulation (경기북부지역 정밀 수치기후도 제작 및 활용 - II. 콩 생육모형 결합에 의한 재배적지 탐색)

  • 김성기;박중수;이영수;서희철;김광수;윤진일
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.61-69
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    • 2004
  • A long-term growth simulation was performed at 99 land units in Yeoncheon county to test the potential adaptability of each land unit for growing soybean cultivars. The land units for soybean cultivation(CZU), each represented by a geographically referenced land patch, were selected based on land use, soil characteristics, and minimum arable land area. Monthly climatic normals for daily maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, number of rain days and solar radiation were extracted for each CZU from digital climate models(DCM). The DCM grid cells falling within a same CZU were aggregated to make spatially explicit climatic normals relevant to the CZU. A daily weather dataset for 30 years was randomly generated from the monthly climatic normals of each CZU. Growth and development parameters of CROPGRO-soybean model suitable for 2 domestic soybean cultivars were derived from long-term field observations. Three foreign cultivars with well established parameters were also added to this study, representing maturity groups 3, 4, and 5. Each treatment was simulated with the randomly generated 30 years' daily weather data(from planting to physiological maturity) for 99 land units in Yeoncheon to simulate the growth and yield responses to the inter-annual climate variation. The same model was run with input data from the Crop Experiment Station in Suwon to obtain a 30 year normal performance of each cultivar, which was used as a "reference" for evaluation. Results were analyzed with respect to spatial and temporal variation in yield and maturity, and used to evaluate the suitability of each land unit for growing a specific cultivar. A computer program(MAPSOY) was written to help utilize the results in a decision-making procedure for agrotechnology transfer. transfer.

Assessment of Distributed and Dynamic Potential of Photovoltaic Systems in Urban Areas (태양광 발전 시스템의 시공간적 잠재성 평가 소프트웨어 개발)

  • Choi, Yosoon
    • 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2011.11a
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    • pp.59.2-59.2
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    • 2011
  • This study presents a new method for coupling ArcGIS (popular GIS software) with TRaNsient SYstems Simulation (TRNSYS, reference software for researchers and engineers around the world) to use capabilities of the 4 and 5-parameter PV array performance models within the ArcGIS environment. Using the validated and industry-proven solar energy simulation models implemented in TRNSYS and other built-in ArcGIS functionalities, dynamic characteristics of distributed PV potential in terms of hourly, daily or monthly power outputs can be investigated with considerations of diverse options in selecting and mounting PV panels. In addition, the proposed method allows users to complete entire procedures in a single framework (i.e., a preliminary site survey using 3D building models, shading analyses to investigate usable rooftop areas with considerations of different sizes and shapes of buildings, dynamic energy simulation to examine the performances of various PV systems, visualization of the simulation results to understand spatially and temporally distributed patterns of PV potential). Therefore tedious tasks for data conversion among multiple softwares can be significantly reduced or eliminated. While the programming environment of TRNSYS is proprietary, the redistributable executable, simulation kernel and simulation engine of TRNSYS can be freely distributed to end-users. Therefore, GIS users who do not have a license of TRNSYS can also use the functionalities of solar energy simulation models within ArcGIS.

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