• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
• /
• v.8 no.6
• /
• pp.1634-1647
• /
• 2007

"To invest or not to invest?" Most business leaders are frequently faced with this question on new and ongoing projects. The challenge lies in deciding what projects to choose, expand, contract, defer, or abandon. The project valuation tools used in this process are vital to making the right decisions. Traditional tools such as discounted cash flow (DCF)/net present value (NPV) assume a "fixed" path ahead, but real world projects face uncertainties, forcing us to change the path often. Comparing to other traditional valuation methods, the real options approach captures the flexibility inherent to investment decisions. The use of real options has gained wide acceptance among practitioners in a number of several industries during the last few decades. Even though the options are present in all types of business decisions, it is still not considered as a proper method of valuation in some industries. Mining has been comparably slow to adopt new valuation techniques over the years. The reason fur this is not entirely clear. One possible reason is the level and types of risks in mining. Not only are these risks high, but they are also more numerous and involve natural risks compared with other industries. That is why the purpose of this study is to deal with a more practical approach to project valuation, known as real options analysis in mining industry. This paper provides a case study approach to the copper mining industry using a real options analysis. It shows how companies can minimize investment risks, exercise flexibility in decision making and maximize returns.

• Korean Chemical Engineering Research
• /
• v.56 no.4
• /
• pp.479-495
• /
• 2018

This study was carried out to research the multimedia fate modeling, concentration distribution and impact assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) emitted from automobiles, which are known as carcinogenic and mutation chemicals. The amount of emissions of PAHs was determined based on the census data of automobiles at a target S-city and emission factors of PAHs, where multimedia fugacity modeling was conducted by the restriction of PAHs transfer between air-soil at the impervious area. PAHs' Concentrations and their distributions at several environmental media were predicted by multimedia fugacity model (level III). The residual amounts and the distributions of PAHs through mass transfer of PAHs between environment media were used to assess the health risk of PAHs at unsteady state (level IV), where the sensitivity analyses of the model parameter of each variable were conducted based on Monte Carlo simulation. The experimental result at S-city showed that Fluoranthene among PAHs substances are the highest residual concentrations (60%, 53%, 32% and 34%) at all mediums (atmospheric, water, soil, sediment), respectively, where most of the PAHs were highly accumulated in the sediment media (more than 80%). A result of PAHs concentration changes in S-city over the past 34 years identified that PAHs emissions from all environmental media increased from 1983 to 2005 and decreased until 2016, where the emission of heavy-duty vehicle including truck revealed the largest contribution to the automotive emissions of PAHs at all environment media. The PAHs concentrations in soil and water for the last 34 years showed the less value than the legal standards of PAHs, but the PAHs in air exceeded the air quality standards from 1996 to 2016. The result of this study is expected to contribute the effective management and monitoring of toxic chemicals of PAHs at various environment media of Metropolitan city.

• Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
• /
• v.38 no.2 s.112
• /
• pp.225-236
• /
• 2005

The protection of public health In wastewater reclamation and reuse is one of the most important issues. Monitoring data of Escherichia coli were collected from paddy rice plots in 2003 and 2004 experiments. Five treatments were used and each one was triplicated to evaluate the changes of E. coli: surface water, biofilter effluent (secondary level), UV-disinfected water and pond treatment. Microbial risk was quantified to assess human health risk by exposure to E. coli in paddy rice plots, which were irrigated with reclaimed wastewater. Beta-Poisson model was used to estimate the microbial risk of pathogen ingestion that may occur to farmer and neighbor children. Monte-Carlo analysis (10,000 trials) was used to estimate the risk characterization of uncertainty. In the following analysis, two scenarios were related to the reduction of risk against direct ingestion and exposure times. Scenarios A and B were assumed that the risk was 1,000 and 10,000 times lower than direct ingestion.'Golfers were assumed to be 0.001 L of reclaimed water by contact with balls and their cloths. Opportunity of contact in paddy rice field with pathogens was more frequent than handing golf balls, because of agricultural activity was practiced in ponded water in paddy rice culture. As a result of microbial risk assessment using total data of experimental period, risk value of E. coli in 2003 and 2004 experiment ranged from $10^{-5}$ to $10^{-8}$ and $10^{-4}$ to $10^{-8}$, respectively. The risk values in biofilter effluent irrigation was the highest, which is $10^{-4}$ in 2003 and $10^{-5}$ in 2004 experiments with scenario A. Ranges of $10^{-6}$ to $10^{-8}$ were considered at reasonable levels of risk for communicable disease transmission from environmental exposure and the risk value above $10^{-4}$ was considered to be attributable to the risk of infection. Irrigation with UV-disinfected water in the paddy field during the agricultural Period showed significantly lower microbial risk than others, and their levels of risk value were within the range of actual paddy rice field with surface water.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
• /
• v.13 no.1
• /
• pp.49-82
• /
• 2004

The study aimed to evaluate cancer damage cost due to risk from benzene inhalation. We performed health risk assessment based on US EPA guideline to estimate annual population risk in Ulsan metropolitan city. Also, we estimated a willingness-to-pay amount for reducing a cancer mortality rate to evaluate a value of statistical life. We combined the annual population risk and the value of statistical life to calculate the cancer damage cost. In the health risk assessment, we applied the benzene unit risk ($2.2{\times}10^{-6}{\sim}7.8{\times}10^{-6}$) in the US EPA'S Integrated Risk Information System to assess the annual population risk. Average concentration of benzene in ambient air is $7.88{\mu}g/m^3$(min: 1.16~max: $23.32{\mu}g/m^3$). We targeted an exposure population of 516,641 persons who aged over 30 years old. Using a Monte-Carlo simulation for uncertainty analysis, we evaluated that the population risk of benzene during ten years in Ulsan city is 2.90 persons (5 percentile: 0.32~95 percentile: 9.11persons). And the monthly average WTP for 5/1,000 cancer mortality reduction during ten years is 14,852 Won(95% C.I: 13,135~16,794 Won) and the implied VSL is 36 million Won(95% C.I: 30~40 million Won). Cancer damage cost due to risk from benzene inhalation during 10 years in Ulsan city is about 104 million Won(5 percentile: 13~95 percentile: 328 million Won). Health benefit cost to reduce a cancer mortality risk of benzene is about 50 million Won is Ulsan metropolitann city. But, it is very important that this cost is not for all health damage cost of cancer mortality in some area. We just recommended a model for evaluating a cancer risk reduction, so we must re-evaluate an integrated application of total VOCs damage cost including benzene.

• Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
• /
• v.31 no.1
• /
• pp.37-44
• /
• 2012

BACKGROUND: Many edible mushrooms are known to accumulate high levels of heavy metals. This research was focused on health risk assessment to investigate the mushrooms in Korea, arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb) and mercury (Hg) contaminations in edible mushrooms in cultivated areas were investigated, and health risk was assessed through dietary intake of mushrooms. METHODS AND RESULTS: The heavy metals in mushrooms were analyzed by ICP/MS after acid digestion. Probabilistic health risk were estimated by Monte-Carlo simulation techniques. The average contents of As, Cd, Pb, and Hg were $0.035{\pm}0.042$ mg/kg, $0.017{\pm}0.020$ mg/kg, $0.043{\pm}0.013$ mg/kg, and $0.004{\pm}0.004$ mg/kg, respectively. The results showed that contents of Cd and Pb did not exceed maximum residual levels established by European Uion regulation (Cd 0.20 mg/kg and Pb 0.30 mg/kg). For health risk assessment, estimated intakes in all age populations did not exceed the provisional tolerable daily intake of As and Hg, provisional tolerable monthly intake of Cd, provisional tolerable weekly intake of Pb. The Hazard Index (HI) were ranged from $0.03{\times}10^{-4}{\sim}0.01{\times}10^{-3}$ for As, $0.02{\times}10^{-3}{\sim}0.81{\times}10^{-3}$ for Cd, $0.06{\times}10^{-3}{\sim}0.38{\times}10^{-3}$ for Pb, and $0.08{\times}10^{-4}{\sim}0.14{\times}10^{-3}$ for Hg at general population. CONCLUSION: The HI from the ratio analysis between daily exposure and safety level values was less than 1.0. This results demonstrated that human exposure to heavy metals through dietary intake of mushrooms might not cause adverse effect.