• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• v.6 no.3
• /
• pp.63-74
• /
• 1986

A methodology for the probabilistic determination of active storage capacity of an impounding reservoir is proposed with due considerations to the durations and return periods of the low flow series at the reservoir site. For more reliable probabilistic analysis the best-fit stochastic generation model of Monte Carlo type was first selected for the generation of monthly flow series, the models tested being the Month Carlo Model based on the month-by-month flow series (Monte Carlo-A Type), Monte Carlo Model based on the standardized sequential monthly flow series (Monte Carlo-B Type), and the Thomas-Fiering Model. Monte Carlo-B Model was final1y selected and synthetic monthly flows of 200 years at Hong Cheon dam site were generated. With so generated 200 years' monthly flows partial duration series of low flows were developed for various durations. Each low flow series was further processed by a nonsequential mass analysis for specified draft rates. This mass analysis furnished the storage-draft-recurrence interval relationship which gives the reservoir storage requirement for a specified water demand from the reservoir during a drought of given return period. Illustrations are given on the application of these results in analyzing the water supply capacity of a particlar reservoir, existing or proposed.

• The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
• /
• v.21 no.3
• /
• pp.221-229
• /
• 2002

In thin paper, error tolerance of each array element which satisfies error tolerance of beam pattern is decided by using the Monte-Carlo method. Conventional deterministic method decides the error tolerance of each element from the acceptance pattern by testing all cases, but this method is not suitable for the analysis of large number of array elements because the computation resources increase exponentially as the number of array elements increases. To alleviate this problem, we applied new algorithm which reduces the increment of calculation time increased by the number of the array elements. We have validates the determined error tolerance region through several simulation.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2019.05a
• /
• pp.335-335
• /
• 2019

최근 수문자료에 대한 다변량 빈도해석 연구가 활발히 이루어지고 있다. 하나의 자료를 확률변수로 사용하는 단변량 빈도해석에 비해 여러 수문자료를 조합하여 동시에 추정할 수 있는 다변량 빈도해석은 수문자료의 상관성을 고려하면서 확률분포형을 추정할 수 있다는 장점이 있다. 이에 다변량 확률분포형을 이용한 빈도해석 과정 중 정확한 매개변수 추정을 위한 연구도 최근 여러방면으로 이루어지고 있다. 본 연구에서는 다변량 확률분포형의 매개변수 추정방법 중 기존에 주로 사용되고 있는 의사최우도법(MPL, Maximum Pseudo-Likelihood method)의 성능을 개선하기 위해 기존의 방법과 본 연구에서 제안하는 매개변수 추정방법의 Monte-Carlo 모의실험을 수행하였다. 일반적으로 수문자료는 양(+)의 왜곡도계수를 갖기 때문에 GEV(Geveralized Extreme Value) 분포형을 모분포로 하여 각 방법의 정확성을 검토하였다. 모의실험을 수행한 결과, 기존의사최우도법에서 Weibull 식을 이용하여 순위통계량을 계산하는 방법보다 본 연구에서 제안한 왜곡도를 고려하는 순위통계량을 사용하는 것이 더 정확한 매개변수 추정결과를 보여주는 것으로 나타났다.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
• /
• v.9 no.5
• /
• pp.93-102
• /
• 2009

A prediction of streamflow based on multi-objective function is presented to check the performance of Probability Distributed Model(PDM) in Miho stream basin, Chungcheongbuk-do, Korea. PDM is a lumped conceptual rainfall runoff model which has been widely used for flood prevention activities in UK Environmental Agency. The Monte Carlo Analysis Toolkit(MCAT) is a numerical analysis tools based on population sampling, which allows evaluation of performance, identifiability, regional sensitivity and etc. PDM is calibrated for five model parameters by using MCAT. The results show that the performance of model parameters(cmax and k(q)) indicates high identifiability and the others obtain equifinality. In addition, the multi-objective function is applied to PDM for seeking suitable model parameters. The solution of the multi-objective function consists of the Pareto solution accounting to various trade-offs between the different objective functions considering properties of hydrograph. The result indicated the performance of model and simulated hydrograph are acceptable in terms on Nash Sutcliffe Effciency*(=0.035), FSB(=0.161), and FDBH(=0.809) to calibration periods, validation periods as well.

• Proceeding of EDISON Challenge
• /
• 2016.03a
• /
• pp.102-107
• /
• 2016

본 연구에서는 동역학적 격자기반 대정준 Monte Carlo (Kinetic Lattice Grand Canonical Monte Carlo, KLGCMC) 모의실험 방법을 이용하여 비정상 몰분율 효과 (Anomalous mole fraction effect)에 대해서 알아보고자 하였다. 이를 위해 양이온 선택성을 가진 이온채널 모델에서 $NH_4{^+}$와 $Rb^+$의 혼합물에 대하여 몰분율의 변화에 따른 이온전도도를 KLGCMC 모의실험을 이용하여 계산하고, 이를 평균장 이론인 Poisson-Nernst-Planck (PNP)의 결과와 비교해 봄으로써 비정상 몰분율 효과에 대하여 심도 있게 이해하고자 하였다. 본 연구 결과로부터 비정상 몰분율 효과는 이온채널의 이온 선택성에 의해서 발생함을 확인할 수 있었다. 즉, 두 종류 이상의 이온들이 채널 내부로 이동할 때, 이온채널의 이온 선택성에 의해서 각 이온들과 채널 간에 서로 상이한 상호작용을 하게 되고, 이로 인해서 이온 혼합물 조성의 변화, 즉 몰분율의 변화에 대해서 이온 전류가 선형적이 아닌 비선형적으로 변하게 됨을 알 수 있었다.

• Journal of Biomedical Engineering Research
• /
• v.19 no.3
• /
• pp.225-232
• /
• 1998

Results of Monte Carlo simulations on amorphous silicon based x-ray imaging arrays are described. In order to investigate the characteristics of amorphous silicon x-ray imaging devices and to provide the optimum design parameter, Monte Carlo simulations were performed. Monte Carlo simulation codes for our purpose were developed and various combinations of x-ray peak voltages, aluminum filter thicknesses, CsI(TI) thicknesses, and amorphous silicon photodiode pixel sizes were tested in connection with detection efficiency and spatial resolution of the amorphous silicon based x-ray imager. With usual Csl(TI) thickness of 300${\mu}{\textrm}{m}$-500${\mu}{\textrm}{m}$, detection efficiency was in the range of 70%-95% and energy absorption efficiency was in the range of 40%-70% for 60kVp-120kVp x-ray. From the simulations it was found that amorphous silicon pixel size and Csl(TI) thickness were the most important parameters which determine the resolution of the imager. By use of our simulation results we could provide proper combinations of Csl(TI) thicknesses and pixels sizes for optimum sensitivity and resolution.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
• /
• v.35 no.5C
• /
• pp.415-422
• /
• 2010

In this paper, we derive exact closed-form formulas, in terms of Meijer's G-function, for the ergodic capacity of space-time block codes (STBCs) from generalized linear complex orthogonal designs (GLCODs) and generalized coordinate interleaved orthogonal designs (GCIODs) in quasi-static frequency-nonselective i.i.d. Nakagami-m fading channels. The derived analytical results show an excellent agreement with Monte-Carlo simulation results. Thus, a useful means for analyzing and predicting the ergodic capacity performance of STBCs from GLCODs or GCIODs can be provided in various antenna configurations and different channel conditions without extensive Monte-Carlo simulations. We present some numerical results to verify the accuracy of the derived formulas.

• Proceedings of the Acoustical Society of Korea Conference
• /
• autumn
• /
• pp.333-336
• /
• 2000

본 논문에서는 Monte-Carlo simulation과 deterministic simulation을 합성한 방법으로 특성허용 패턴을 만족하는 개별소자의 오차범위를 가중치에 따라 차별적으로 규정을 하였다. 일반적으로 사용되는 통계적인 방법은 불규칙한 특성을 갖는 랜덤오차를 정규분포를 갖는 랜덤변수로 모델링을 하여 허용 패턴으로부터 오차의 범위를 규정하는데, 이렇게 구해진 범위는 개별소자의 가중치의 영향을 고려하지 않고 일률적인 특성을 나타낸다는 단점이 있다. 이에 반해 deterministic simulation을 통해서 얻어진 오차의 범위는 가중치에 따라서 상대적인 범위를 결정할 수 있지만 해석 하고자하는 배열소자의 개수에 따라서 계산량이 지수승으로 증가하는 단점이 있어 10개 이상의 소자를 갖는 배열에는 적합하지 않다. 이러한 단점을 보완하기 위해서는 본 논문에서는 Monte-Carlo simulation과 deterministic simulation의 합성적 방법을 사용해서 배열소자의 증가에 따른 계산량의 증가를 줄이면서 각 가충치에 따라 상대적인 개별오차의 허용범위를 결정하였다. 그리고 이렇게 규정된 오차의 범위를 간단한 모의 실험을 통해서 검증하였다.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics
• /
• v.27 no.3
• /
• pp.79-85
• /
• 1990

Monte Carlo simulation of hot-electron transport in $Al_{0.48}In_{0.52}As/Ga_{0.47}In_{0.53}$ As modulation-doped structure has been performed in which the nonparabolicity in $\Gamma$ valley is taken into account. The calculated results show that the inclusion of the nonparabolicty effect results in a huge decrease in drift velocity.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
• /
• v.12 no.3
• /
• pp.155-163
• /
• 2010

The flash flood is characterized as flood leading to damage by heavy rainfall occurred in steep slope and impervious area with short duration. Flash flood occurs when rainfall exceeds Flash Flood Guidance(FFG). So, the accurate estimation of FFG will be helpful in flash flood forecasting and warning system. Say, if we can reduce the uncertainty of rainfall-runoff relationship, FFG can be estimated more accurately. However, since the rainfall-runoff models have their own parameter characteristics, the uncertainty of FFG will depend upon the selection of rainfall-runoff model. This study used four rainfall-runoff models of HEC-HMS model, Storage Function model, SSARR model and TANK model for the estimation of models' uncertainties by using Monte Carlo simulation. Then, we derived the confidence limits of rainfall-runoff relationship by four models on 95%-confidence level.