• Title/Summary/Keyword: Monte Carlo 모의기법

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Trend Detection of Serially Correlated Hydrologic Series (상관성을 가진 시계열 자료의 경향성 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Je Seung;Kim, Byung Sik;Kim, Hung Soo;Seoh, Byung Ha
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.35-43
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    • 2004
  • The non-parametric Mann-Kendall(MK) statistical test has been widely used to assess the significance of trend in hydrologic time series. The test requires sample data should be serially independent. If sample data is serially correlated, the presence of serial correlation in a time series will affect the test ability for trend analysis. So, we would like to use the modified MK test which uses the effective sample size(ESS) to eliminate the effect of serial correlation in a series. This study investigates the ability of ESS to eliminate the influence of serial correlation of MK test by Monte Carlo simulation and by real series. As the results, MK test shows the increase of trend rate as the serial correlation is increased but the modified MK test shows ESS can eliminate the serial correlation for trend analysis. Therefore we confirmed the modified MK test is a very useful tool for trend analysis.

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Application of Probabilistic Health Risk Analysis in Life Cycle Assessment -Part I : Life Cycle Assessment for Environmental Load of Chemical Products using Probabilistic Health Risk Analysis : A Case Study (전과정평가에 있어 확률론적 건강영향분석기법 적용 -Part II : 화학제품의 환경부하 전과정평가에 있어 건강영향분석 모의사례연구)

  • Park, Jae-Sung;Choi, Kwang-Soo
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.203-214
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    • 2000
  • Health risk assessment is applied to streamlining LCA(Life Cycle Assessment) using Monte carlo simulation for probabilistic/stochastic exposure and risk distribution analysis caused by data variability and uncertainty. A case study was carried out to find benefits of this application. BTC(Benzene, Trichloroethylene, Carbon tetrachloride mixture alias) personal exposure cases were assumed as production worker(in workplace), manager(in office) and business man(outdoor). These cases were different from occupational retention time and exposure concentration for BTC consumption pattern. The result of cancer risk in these 3 scenario cases were estimated as $1.72E-4{\pm}1.2E+0$(production worker; case A), $9.62E-5{\pm}1.44E-5$(manger; case B), $6.90E-5{\pm}1.16E+0$(business man; case C), respectively. Portions of over acceptable risk 1.00E-4(assumed standard) were 99.85%, 38.89% and 0.61%, respectively. Estimated BTC risk was log-normal pattern, but some of distributions did not have any formal patterns. Except first impact factor(BTC emission quantity), sensitivity analysis showed that main effective factor was retention time in their occupational exposure sites. This case study is a good example to cover that LCA with probabilistic risk analysis tool can supply various significant information such as statistical distribution including personal/environmental exposure level, daily time activity pattern and individual susceptibility. Further research is needed for investigating real data of these input variables and personal exposure concentration and application of this study methodology.

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Performance Analysis of Coordinated Multi-Point with Scheduling and Precoding schemes in LTE-Advanced System (LTE-Advanced 시스템에서 스케줄링 및 프리코딩을 결합한 다중 포인트 협력 통신 기법의 성능 분석)

  • Kim, Bora;Moon, Sangmi;Malik, Saransh;Kim, Cheolsung;Hwang, Intae
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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    • v.50 no.7
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    • pp.27-33
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, we design and analyze the performance of Coordinated Multi-Point (CoMP) techniques to the number of users for next-generation cellular systems. We perform Monte Carlo simulations with Long Term Evolution-Advanced (LTE-Advanced) and confirm the performance from the graph of the Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF). From simulation results, we show the significant performance gain when CoMP technique is used and also show better performance when we apply the various schemes additionally as scheduling and precoding.

A Study on Interference Analysis between Base Stations with FDD and TDD Modes for IMT-2000 (FDD 및 TDD 모드 채용 IMT-2000 시스템 기지국간 간섭분석 연구)

  • 이일근;이형수;이정규;신경철;김경태
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.11-17
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    • 2001
  • This paper introduces an interference analyzer based on the statistical approach called the Monte Carlo methodology, which has been chosen as one of the interference analyzing techniques in ITU-R. Furthermore, using the interference analyzer developed in this paper with modified Hata model, computer simulation is performed to examine probability of interference affecting between the base stations with FDD and TDD modes for IMT-2000. Through the simulation results, it is confirmed that two different systems with FDD/TDD modes of same frequency bands can be simultaneously used in a cell without significant interference, under the parameter conditions specified in this paper.

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Comparison of Thresholding Techniques for SVD Coefficients in CT Perfusion Image Analysis (CT 관류 영상 해석에서의 SVD 계수 임계화 기법의 성능 비교)

  • Kim, Nak Hyun
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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    • v.50 no.6
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    • pp.276-286
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    • 2013
  • SVD-based deconvolution algorithm has been known as the most effective technique for CT perfusion image analysis. In this algorithm, in order to reduce noise effects, SVD coefficients smaller than a certain threshold are removed. As the truncation threshold, either a fixed value or a variable threshold yielding a predetermined OI (oscillation index) is frequently employed. Each of these two thresholding methods has an advantage to the other either in accuracy or efficiency. In this paper, we propose a Monte Carlo simulation method to evaluate the accuracy of the two methods. An extension of the proposed method is presented as well to measure the effects of image smoothing on the accuracy of the thresholding methods. In this paper, after the simulation method is described, experimental results are presented using both simulated data and real CT images.

Power Test of Trend Analysis using Simulation Experiment (모의실험을 이용한 경향성 분석기법의 검정력 평가)

  • Ryu, Yongjun;Shin, Hongjoon;Kim, Sooyoung;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.219-227
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    • 2013
  • Time series data including change, jump, trend and periodicity generally have nonstationarity. Especially, various methods have been proposed to identify the trend about hydrological time series data. However, among various methods, evaluation about capability of each trend test has not been done a lot. Even for the same data, each method may show the different result. In this study, the simulation was performed for identification about the changes in trend analysis according to the statistical characteristics and the capability in the trend analysis. For this purpose, power test for the trend analysis is conducted using Men-Kendall test, Hotelling-Pabst test, t test and Sen test according to the slope, sample size, standard deviation and significance level. As a result, t test has higher statistical power than the others, while Mann-Kendall, Hotelling-Pabst, and Sen tests were similar results.

Analysis of Photon Spectrum for the use of Added Filters using 3D Printing Materials (3D 프린팅 재료를 이용한 X-선 부가 여과 시 광자 스펙트럼에 대한 분석)

  • Cho, Yong-In;Lee, Sang-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.15-23
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    • 2022
  • 3D printing technology is being used in various fields such as medicine and biotechnology, and materials containing metal powder are being commercialized through recent material development. Therefore, this study intends to analyze the photon spectrum during added filtration using 3D printing material during diagnostic X-ray examination through simulation. Among the Monte Carlo techniques, MCNPX (ver. 2.5.0) was used. First, the appropriateness of the photon spectrum generated in the simulation was evaluated through SRS-78 and SpekCalc, which are X-ray spectrum generation programs in the diagnostic field. Second, photon spectrum the same thickness of Al and Cu filters were obtained for characterization of 3D printing materials containing metal powder. In addition, the total photon fluence and average energy according to changes in tube voltage were compared and analyzed. As a result, it was analyzed that PLA-Al required about 1.2 ~ 1.4 times the thickness of the existing Al filter, and PLA-Cu required about 1.4 ~ 1.7 times the thickness of the Cu filter to show the same degree of filtration. Based on this study in the future, it is judged that it can be utilized as basic data for manufacturing 3D printing additional filters in medical fields.

Derivation of SDF(Severity-Duration-Frequency) Curve using Non-Stationary Drought Frequency Analysis (비정상성 가뭄빈도해석에 의한 SDF 곡선의 유도)

  • Jang, Ho Won;Park, Seo Yeon;Kim, Tae Woong;Lee, Joo Heon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.150-150
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    • 2017
  • 기후변화로 인하여 극한 홍수와 극한 가뭄 발생이 증가할 것으로 전망하고 있어 이에 대한 위험이 대두되고 있는 실정이다. 홍수 및 가뭄 수문시계열의 빈도해석시에 일반적으로 활용되는 정상성 빈도해석기법은 수문자료의 정상성을 기반으로 한 빈도해석이 대부분이기 때문에 기후변화 및 수문자료의 비정상성을 반영한 새로운 빈도해석 기법이 요구되고 있는 상황이다. 본 연구에서는 5개의 대표 관측지점(서울, 포항, 추풍령, 여수, 광주)를 선별하고 1976년부터 2015년까지 일강우자료를 활용하여 기상학적 가뭄지수인 SPI(Standardized Precipitation Index)를 산정하였다. 산정한 SPI의 경향성을 Mann-Kendall 분석을 하였으며, 정상성 및 비정상성 빈도해석을 위하여 최적확률분포로 선정된 GEV 분포 적용하였다. 본 연구에서는 가뭄빈도해석을 위하여 SPI를 입력자료로 활용하였으며, 산정된 SPI의 비정상성을 반영한 비정상성 빈도해석의 경우 Bayesian 모형을 기반으로 한 MCMC(Markov Chain Monte Carlo) 모의를 이용하여 극치분포의 사후분포 매개변수를 추정하였다. 추정 값을 바탕으로 하여 가뭄의 관측소별 빈도해석을 실시하였고 재현기간별-지속기간별 가뭄심도를 추정하여 관측소별 가뭄심도-지속기간-빈도(SDF,Severity-Duration-Frequency) 곡선을 유도하였다. 본 연구를 통하여 정상성과 비정상성 빈도해석 결과의 비교연구를 수행하였으며 기후변화에 따른 비정상 시계열로 구성된 가뭄빈도해석에 매우 유용하게 적용될 수 있을 것으로 나타났다.

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Performance Analysis of CoMP with Scheduling and Precoding Techniques in the HetNet System (이종 네트워크에서 스케줄링 및 프리코딩을 결합한 다중 포인트 협력 통신 기술의 성능 분석)

  • Kim, Bora;Moon, Sangmi;Malik, Saransh;Kim, Cheolsung;Hwang, Intae
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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    • v.50 no.8
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    • pp.45-52
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    • 2013
  • Coordinated Multi-Point (CoMP) is considered as a technology in the 3rd Generation Partnership Project(3GPP) Long Term Evolution-Advanced (LTE-A) system. In this paper, we design and analyze the performance of the Coordinated Beamforming (CB) technique, which is one major category of CoMP. We perform Monte Carlo simulations with a Heterogeneous Network (HetNet) in LTE-A, and confirm the performance through a graph of the Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF). From the simulation results, we show significant performance gain with the CoMP technique, and better performance when we apply various schemes of scheduling and precoding.

Spatial Dose Distribution for Diagnostic X-ray Examination within X-ray Room using the MCNPX Program (MCNPX 프로그램을 통한 일반 X선 검사 시 검사실 내 공간선량분포)

  • Lee, Dong-yeon;Lee, Jin-soo
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.15 no.11
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    • pp.298-306
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    • 2015
  • This study is the material of the additional filter(Cu, Ni, CaWO4, Gd+Ba) being used when the diagnosis X-ray was varied to evaluate the spatial dose distribution accordingly. And it suggest to find a suitable material. Experiments using MCNPX program based on the Monte Carlo simulation method was carried out by selecting the chest and abdomen taken. As a result, each material per dose, the average scatter dose is approximately 62%, 100 cm radius of the point of the simulated body surface exposure dose and 50 cm radius centered on the point average about 47%. It is determined that an Al material is currently available in accordance with the result to be replaced by Cu, Ni material is sufficient. With just the thickness due to the difference in the atomic number and density adjusted to be about one-tenth of the Al it will be suitable.