• Title/Summary/Keyword: Monetary System

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The Effect of Trade Integration on Business Cycle Synchronization in East Asia

  • NGUYEN, Vinh Thi Hong;HOANG, Thuy Thi Thanh;NGUYEN, Sang Minh
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.8
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    • pp.225-231
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    • 2020
  • The paper aims to investigate the impact of trade integration on business cycle synchronization for the East Asian countries during 2005- 2017 based on the endogeneity hypothesis of Optimum Currency Area criteria. We test the determinants of business cycles by calculating bilateral trade, financial integration, and business cycle synchronization. Applying the system Generalized Method of Moments for dynamic panel data models, the results show that business cycle synchronization is highly associated with trade and financial integration. These findings confirm the endogeneity hypothesis that more trade integration will mitigate asymmetric shocks, and have a positive impact on the business cycle synchronization. The increased trade intensity and financial linkage lead to more correlated business cycles in East Asia. Apart from trade and financial integration, the trade structure differential, monetary policy similarity also influence the business cycle comovement. The significantly negative impact of trade structure differential on business cycle synchronization suggests that countries with less similar structures are more likely to undergo asymmetric shocks. The results also indicate that monetary policy matters for output comovement. This study recommends that the East Asian countries should focus on bilateral trade as well as financial integration with each other to reap benefits from the integration process.

Environmental Decision Making of Nakdong River Basin by the Environmental Accounting (환경회계에 의한 낙동강 유역의 환경정책결정에 관한 연구)

  • 김영진;김진이;손지호;이석모
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.85-90
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    • 2001
  • The conflicts between environment protection and economic development are becoming increasingly important in environmental decision making of Nakdong River Basin. A science-based evaluation system is now needed to represent both the environmental values and the economic values with a common measure. EMERGY, spelled with an \"m\" evaluates both the work of river and that of human in generating products and services. The monetary cost-benefit analysis and the environmental accounting by EMERGY analysis were applied to determine whether there will have a net benefit in environmental decision making of Nakdong River Basin. Based on the results of the environmental accounting, all alternatives which related to environmental decision making of Nakdong River Basin show that more and more of EMERGY cost becomes needed than the a EMERGY benefit from getting water to drink in the lower basin. From these results, for selecting alternatives to manage water quantity and quality that is sustainable in the environmental use and economic development, environmental accounting concepts must be considered, and the economic structure of Nakdong River Basin should be changed from the present industrial structure to social-economic based on ecological-recycling concept for the sustainable use of Nakdong River.ong River.

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An Intelligent Gold Price Prediction Based on Automated Machine and k-fold Cross Validation Learning

  • Baguda, Yakubu S.;Al-Jahdali, Hani Meateg
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.65-74
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    • 2021
  • The rapid change in gold price is an issue of concern in the global economy and financial markets. Gold has been used as a means for trading and transaction around the world for long period of time and it plays an integral role in monetary, business, commercial and financial activities. More importantly, it is used as economic measure for the global economy and will continue to play an important economic vital role - both locally and globally. There has been an explosive growth in demand for efficient and effective scheme to predict gold price due its volatility and fluctuation. Hence, there is need for the development of gold price prediction scheme to assist and support investors, marketers, and financial institutions in making effective economic and monetary decisions. This paper primarily proposed an intelligent based system for predicting and characterizing the gold market trend. The simulation result shows that the proposed intelligent gold price scheme has been able to predict the gold price with high accuracy and precision, and ultimately it has significantly reduced the prediction error when compared to baseline neural network (NN).

A Study on the Measurement of Monetary Value for Service Quality of Construction Technology Information (건설기술정보 서비스 품질에 대한 금전적 가치 측정에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Nam-Gon;Jeong, Seong-Yun
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
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    • v.53 no.2
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    • pp.201-221
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    • 2019
  • The Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology provides the documents and information on the construction technology through the Construction Technology Digital Library System to enhance the technological competitiveness of the construction engineers. The purpose of this study is to measure the monetary value of information service quality in order to improve the documents and information service quality provided by this system. For this purpose, a questionnaire model was designed to apply the DBDC- CVM. We surveyed the members of 300 this systems for the amount of information that they are willing to pay to maximize the quality of information service. The correlation between the dependent variable and the explanatory variables was analyzed with the basic statistics of the survey results. The independent variables affecting the dependent variable are statistically significant. The logit model is used to estimate the monetary value of individual respondents who are willing to pay for information service quality. In previous research, we measured the use value of information service. On the other hand, this study shows that the measurement of value based on information service quality is different from previous research.

Development of Interest Rates Forecasting System Using the SAS/ETS (SAS/ETS를 이용한 금리예측시스템의 구축)

  • Lee, Jeong-Hyeong;Chu, Min-Jeong;Cho, Sin-Sup
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.485-500
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    • 1999
  • The systematic forecast of interest rates with liberalization was on the rise to important problems in the money market. Liberalization and globalization of the money market produced a seriously change as a compatition among the money market. Profits of an organ of monetary circulation are, also, definitively influenced by a change of interest rates. Hence most of the organ of monetary circulation studied to a scientific and systematic analysis for deterministic factors which have an effect on interest rates and progress development of a forecasting model of interest rates. In this paper, we develope the forecasting system which has highly forecasting performance based on a number of time series models for interest rates and discuss practical use of this system.

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A Survey of Regulations on Smishing and Mobile Micropayment and a Research of Regulations and Laws for Reducing Monetary Damages in Mobile Micropayment (스미싱 제도와 소액결제 제도의 현황 조사 및 소액결제 피해를 줄이기 위한 법·제도 연구)

  • Park, Hanjin;Kim, Injung
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.1189-1199
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    • 2017
  • With the rapid increase in mobile device users, there are many cyber attacks using SMS messages to infect the mobile device. The monetary demage from those attacks are also increasing. Since those demage are generally related to mobile micropayement systems, we study the details of the incidents on smishing and mobile micropayment. We have identified several limitations of current regulations and laws of them. Thus, we propose new regulations and laws to reduce the financial demage from simishing and to strengthen the security and responsibility of the mobile network operator, payment gateway, and content providers who are participating in the structure of a mobile micropayment systems, such as a regulation for information security evaluation system, several laws for compensation of financial demage within mobile micropayement system.

Assessing the Impact of Digital Procurement via Mobile Phone on the Agribusiness of Rural Bangladesh: A Decision-analytic Approach

  • Alam, Md. Mahbubul;Wagner, Christian
    • Agribusiness and Information Management
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.31-41
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    • 2013
  • The research assesses the impact of a digital procurement (e-purjee) system for sugarcane growers in Bangladesh. The system itself is simple, transmitting purchase orders to local farmers via SMS text notification. It replaces a traditional paper-based system fraught with low reliability and delivery delays. Applying expected value theory, and using decision tree representations to depict growers' decision-making complexity in an information-asymmetric environment, we compute outcomes for the strategies and sub-strategies of ICT vs. traditional paper-based order management from the sugarcane growers' perspective. The study results show that the digital procurement system outperforms the paper-based system by tangibly reducing growers' economic losses. The digital system also appears to benefit growers non-monetarily, because of reduced uncertainty and a higher level of perceived fairness. Sugarcane growers appear to value the non-monetary benefits even higher than the economic advantages of the e-purjee system.

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Designing of Cost Information Systems Based on Logical Circuit Concept (논리회로개념에 의한 원가정보시스템의 설계)

  • 김동석
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.19 no.37
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    • pp.9-20
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    • 1996
  • The writer has made efforts to solve the weaknesses of the traditional systems through reconstructing cost information systems by introducing 'logical circuit concept' instead of account. As the new designed systems also allow the basic thought of double entry, they are compatiable with the traditional ones. For this, the writer included both monetary and physical information in the systems, replaced the concept of debit & credit with the concept of inputs & outputs, and changed transfer concept between accounts based on reverse logic into flow concept between unit systems based on proceeding logic.

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Methodology of Cyber Security Assessment in the Smart Grid

  • Woo, Pil Sung;Kim, Balho H.
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.495-501
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    • 2017
  • The introduction of smart grid, which is an innovative application of digital processing and communications to the power grid, might lead to more and more cyber threats originated from IT systems. In other words, The Energy Management System (EMS) and other communication networks interact with the power system on a real time basis, so it is important to understand the interaction between two layers to protect the power system from potential cyber threats. This paper aims to identify and clarify the cyber security risks and their interaction with the power system in Smart Grid. In this study, the optimal power flow (OPF) and Power Flow Tracing are used to assess the interaction between the EMS and the power system. Through OPF and Power Flow Tracing based analysis, the physical and economic impacts from potential cyber threats are assessed, and thereby the quantitative risks are measured in a monetary unit.

The Prediction of Currency Crises through Artificial Neural Network (인공신경망을 이용한 경제 위기 예측)

  • Lee, Hyoung Yong;Park, Jung Min
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.19-43
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    • 2016
  • This study examines the causes of the Asian exchange rate crisis and compares it to the European Monetary System crisis. In 1997, emerging countries in Asia experienced financial crises. Previously in 1992, currencies in the European Monetary System had undergone the same experience. This was followed by Mexico in 1994. The objective of this paper lies in the generation of useful insights from these crises. This research presents a comparison of South Korea, United Kingdom and Mexico, and then compares three different models for prediction. Previous studies of economic crisis focused largely on the manual construction of causal models using linear techniques. However, the weakness of such models stems from the prevalence of nonlinear factors in reality. This paper uses a structural equation model to analyze the causes, followed by a neural network model to circumvent the linear model's weaknesses. The models are examined in the context of predicting exchange rates In this paper, data were quarterly ones, and Consumer Price Index, Gross Domestic Product, Interest Rate, Stock Index, Current Account, Foreign Reserves were independent variables for the prediction. However, time periods of each country's data are different. Lisrel is an emerging method and as such requires a fresh approach to financial crisis prediction model design, along with the flexibility to accommodate unexpected change. This paper indicates the neural network model has the greater prediction performance in Korea, Mexico, and United Kingdom. However, in Korea, the multiple regression shows the better performance. In Mexico, the multiple regression is almost indifferent to the Lisrel. Although Lisrel doesn't show the significant performance, the refined model is expected to show the better result. The structural model in this paper should contain the psychological factor and other invisible areas in the future work. The reason of the low hit ratio is that the alternative model in this paper uses only the financial market data. Thus, we cannot consider the other important part. Korea's hit ratio is lower than that of United Kingdom. So, there must be the other construct that affects the financial market. So does Mexico. However, the United Kingdom's financial market is more influenced and explained by the financial factors than Korea and Mexico.