• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.19-43
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• 2016

This study examines the causes of the Asian exchange rate crisis and compares it to the European Monetary System crisis. In 1997, emerging countries in Asia experienced financial crises. Previously in 1992, currencies in the European Monetary System had undergone the same experience. This was followed by Mexico in 1994. The objective of this paper lies in the generation of useful insights from these crises. This research presents a comparison of South Korea, United Kingdom and Mexico, and then compares three different models for prediction. Previous studies of economic crisis focused largely on the manual construction of causal models using linear techniques. However, the weakness of such models stems from the prevalence of nonlinear factors in reality. This paper uses a structural equation model to analyze the causes, followed by a neural network model to circumvent the linear model's weaknesses. The models are examined in the context of predicting exchange rates In this paper, data were quarterly ones, and Consumer Price Index, Gross Domestic Product, Interest Rate, Stock Index, Current Account, Foreign Reserves were independent variables for the prediction. However, time periods of each country's data are different. Lisrel is an emerging method and as such requires a fresh approach to financial crisis prediction model design, along with the flexibility to accommodate unexpected change. This paper indicates the neural network model has the greater prediction performance in Korea, Mexico, and United Kingdom. However, in Korea, the multiple regression shows the better performance. In Mexico, the multiple regression is almost indifferent to the Lisrel. Although Lisrel doesn't show the significant performance, the refined model is expected to show the better result. The structural model in this paper should contain the psychological factor and other invisible areas in the future work. The reason of the low hit ratio is that the alternative model in this paper uses only the financial market data. Thus, we cannot consider the other important part. Korea's hit ratio is lower than that of United Kingdom. So, there must be the other construct that affects the financial market. So does Mexico. However, the United Kingdom's financial market is more influenced and explained by the financial factors than Korea and Mexico.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.153-195
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• 2010

The recent global financial crisis has been the outcome of, among other things, the mismatch between institutions and the reality of the market in the current global financial system. The International financial institutions (IFIs) that were designed more than 60 years ago can no longer effectively meet the challenges posed by the current global economy. While the global financial market has become integrated like a single market, there is no international lender of last resort or global regulatory body. There also has been a rapid shift in the weight of economic power. The share of the Group of 7 (G7) countries in global gross domestic product (GDP) fell and the share of emerging market economies increased rapidly. Therefore, the tasks facing us today are: (i) to reform the IFIs -mandate, resources, management, and governance structure; (ii) to reform the system such as the international monetary system (IMS), and regulatory framework of the global financial system; and (iii) to reform global economic governance. The main focus of this paper will be the IMS reform and the role of the Group of Twenty (G20) summit meetings. The current IMS problems can be summarized as follows. First, the demand for foreign reserve accumulation has been increasing despite the movement from fixed exchange rate regimes to floating rate regimes some 40 years ago. Second, this increasing demand for foreign reserves has been concentrated in US dollar assets, especially public securities. Third, as the IMS relies too heavily on the supply of currency issued by a center country (the US), it gives an exorbitant privilege to this country, which can issue Treasury bills at the lowest possible interest rate in the international capital market. Fourth, as a related problem, the global financial system depends too heavily on the center country's ability to maintain the stability of the value of its currency and strength of its own financial system. Fifth, international capital flows have been distorted in the current IMS, from EMEs and developing countries where the productivity of capital investment is higher, to advanced economies, especially the US, where the return to capital investment is lower. Given these problems, there have been various proposals to reform the current IMS. They can be grouped into two: demand-side and supply-side reform. The key in the former is how to reduce the widespread strong demand for foreign reserve holdings among EMEs. There have been several proposals to reduce the self-insurance motivation. They include third-party insurance and the expansion of the opportunity to borrow from a global and regional reserve pool, or access to global lender of last resort (or something similar). However, the first option would be too costly. That leads us to the second option - building a stronger globalfinancial safety net. Discussions on supply-side reform of the IMS focus on how to diversify the supply of international reserve currency. The proposals include moving to a multiple currency system; increased allocation and wider use of special drawing rights (SDR); and creating a new global reserve currency. A key question is whether diversification should be encouraged among suitable existing currencies, or if it should be sought more with global reserve assets, acting as a complement or even substitute to existing ones. Each proposal has its pros and cons; they also face trade-offs between desirability and political feasibility. The transition would require close collaboration among the major players. This should include efforts at the least to strengthen policy coordination and collaboration among the major economies, and to reform the IMF to make it a more effective institution for bilateral and multilateral surveillance and as an international lender of last resort. The success on both fronts depends heavily on global economic governance reform and the role of the G20. The challenge is how to make the G20 effective. Without institutional innovations within the G20, there is a high risk that its summits will follow the path of previous summit meetings, such as G7/G8.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.131-139
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• 2003

The products of the quality certificated fisheries which are protected from environmental pollution, decomposition are hygienically safe and convenient for food. However, consumers have not yet understood the recognition of the system of quality certfication so far because of lack of demand on the quality certification fisheries. Above all, to put the system of the quality QC in place sucessfully, to understand the variation of consumer's inclination efficiently, the empirical study must be carried out by both consumer's take part in the market of the quality certificated fisheries products and how much the amount of consumption is in this market. The purpose of this study, under the preconditions where these have limited fisheries items in consumer's inclination survey, is to analyze the demand of QC though the Double Hurdle Model. Explanatory variables included were household characteristics such as housewives' age and education, her job, household income as well as their health perceptions and food purchase behaviors. Survey from 530 household was collected in Pusan City in 2003, of 502 were actually used for empirical analysis. The Double-hurdle framework proved to a better representation of the factors influencing the separate decision participation and consumption levels. According to the results of this study, whether or not, participating In the market of quality certicipating in the market of qualify certificated fisheries products is affected by how much experience and confidence these have got. housewives' having a job or not. Furthermore, the amount of consumption is mostly affected income. This value is attributed to the safety of QC fisheries products in comparison with regular fisheries. Findings suggest that the consumers put substantially high monetary value on safe food, such as high quality fisheries products. Therefore, first of all, legal and institutional systems should be clearly and strictly identified for the QC products.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.77-92
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• 2014

The focus of this study is to analyse dynamic relationship among BDI(Baltic Dry-bulk Index, hereafter BDI), forex market and industrial production using monthly data from 2003-2013. Specifically, we have focused on the investigations how monetary and real variable affect shipping industry during recession period. To compare performance between general VAR and Bayesian VAR we first examine DAG(Directed Acyclic Graph) to clarify causality among the variables and then employ MSFE(mean squared forecast error). The overall estimated results from impulse-response analysis imply that BDI has been strongly affected by other shock, such as forex market and industrial production in Bayesian VAR. In particular, Bayesian VAR show better performance than general VAR in forecasting.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.11
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• pp.177-184
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• 2020

This paper analyzes factors affecting corporate investment decisions in economic groups listed on the Vietnam stock market. The panel data of the research sample includes 39 economic groups listed on the Vietnam stock market from 2009 to 2019. The Generalized Least Square (GLS) is employed to address econometric issues and to improve the accuracy of the regression coefficients. In this research, the investment rate is a dependent variable. Cash-flow (CF), Investment opportunities (ROA), Fixed capital intensity (FCI), Leverage (LEV), Sales growth (GR), Size (SZ), Business risk (RISK) are independent variables in the study. The model results show that cash flow and sales growth have the same impact on investment decisions of economic groups in Vietnam. In addition, investment opportunities have a negative impact on the capital investment decisions of economic groups. The remaining factors include fixed capital intensity, leverage, firm size, and business risks that have a weak and insignificant impact on capital investment decisions of economic groups in Vietnam. The findings of this article are useful for business administrators, and helping business managers make the right financial decisions. Besides, the research results are also meaningful to money management agencies. The authors recommend that the State Bank of Vietnam should maintain a sustainable monetary policy.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.10
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• pp.87-94
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• 2020

This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of sterilization in Vietnam. We estimate a simultaneous equation by using Two-Stage least squares (2SLS) regression analysis. The time-series data was collected for the first quarter of 2004 to the fourth quarter of 2018. In particular, the effectiveness of sterilization is considered in terms of dollarized economy, since making the transition from a centrally planned to a market economy system, the Vietnamese economy has remained in a state of dollarization. In addition, we also assess whether the global financial crisis had an impact on the sterilization effectiveness of the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV). On the basis of the estimated sterilization and offset coefficients, our results suggest that the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has not been able to fully neutralize the impact on the domestic money supply when intervening in the foreign exchange market, and the capital inflows respond strongly to changes in domestic monetary conditions. The results also show that the global financial crisis has changed the effectiveness of these sterilization policies. An analysis of this study's empirical findings provides the opportunity to derive some recommendations that may assist in increasing the effectiveness of the State Bank of Vietnam's sterilization policies in the process of accumulating international reserves.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.47 no.2
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• pp.283-290
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• 2020

In 2018, 647 thousand tons of eggs were produced and consumed. However, the issue of pesticides used for egg in 2017 made Korean consumers worry about the food safety of eggs, and the volume of egg consumption decreased. The Korean egg industry also has another problem due to an unclear and inefficient marketing structure at the farm level. This marketing situation of eggs at the farm level in Korea needs a large-scale restructuring of the market structure, including introducing an EPC (egg processing center). Especially, the introduction of an EPC has been discussed by government officers and specialists, but the social benefit of an EPC, which will be the driving point for approving an EPC, has not been measured yet. The purpose of this study was to measure the effect of introducing an EPC in Korea. Through an analysis using EDM (equilibrium displacement model), a few findings are presented. First, the introduction of an EPC may increase the transparency of price discovery and decrease the transaction cost. And thus, it results in a higher producer price, lower consumer price, and larger quantity at market equilibrium. Second, an EPC will improve the level of food safety of eggs, which can increase the satisfaction of domestic producers and consumers. Third, the introduction of an EPC may create new consumption of eggs. Based on these three effects, the new social benefits in monetary terms from the introduction of an EPC in Korea could be 23.9 - 35.2 billion won.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.111-118
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• 2023

After the outbreak of the COVID-19 in the early 2020, Korea has attempted to reinforce the existing rent controls to help the low-income households. From July 2000, the tenants' right of lease renewal came into effect, as a policy tool to enforce the upper bound percentage of rent increases within Korea. Purpose: This study aims to examine the impact of rent control on the uncontrolled rents in Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA). Research design, data and methodology: The study regresses the monthly panel data from 58 municipalities in SMA from January 2020 to March 2022, during the COVID-19 pandemic. Results: The data indicates that the policy had the effect of lowering rents for a period of two months, and subsequently monetary policy including quantitative easing and low interest rates, coupled with asset market bubbles lead to rent increases. During the sample data period, the quantity of money supply increased by 12.6% and CPI rose by 3.0%, these phenomena collectively increased the rents by up to 14.7%. Conclusions: The results of the present study support the findings of earlier studies in part: namely, that rent control without the government's steps to stabilize the property price may have an undesirable effect on rental tenants.

• International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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• v.21 no.12spc
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• pp.459-462
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• 2021

The article examines the main problems of land market formation in Ukraine. The article is devoted to the study of problems and prospects of land market introduction after the abolition of the ban on alienation. The advantages and disadvantages of lifting the moratorium on the purchase and sale of agricultural land are highlighted. The experience of such European countries as France, Germany, Latvia, Romania and Poland in regulating the market of agricultural lands is analyzed. The historical stages of market formation, features of state policy in this area are considered. The authors found that in these countries the market for agricultural land is well developed and works effectively, which has positive consequences for the economy of these countries. After analyzing the experience, we identified common elements of an effective mechanism for regulating the land market in European countries, which can be implemented in Ukraine. It is emphasized that after the opening of the land market it is necessary to prevent the concentration of a large number of agricultural lands in the hands of one person or close persons and it is necessary to create an effective supervisory body, whose main functions will be supervising sales prevention of speculation in the land market. Emphasis is placed on the need to improve legislation in the field of land, organizational and informational conditions for land reform. The Law of Ukraine "On Amendments to Certain Legislative Acts of Ukraine Concerning the Circulation of Agricultural Land" was analyzed, the adoption of which put an end to the systematic extension of the moratorium on the sale of agricultural land. The positive aspects of such reservations are noted, such as the gradual introduction of the land market, quantitative restrictions, the lower limit of the value equivalent, which can not be less than the normative monetary value. At the same time, the problem is that the lack of an imperative norm on termination of the lease agreement in case of refusal of the lessee to purchase such land at a price not lower than expert assessment, will negatively affect its price formation and actually make the landlord hostage.

• The Korean Journal of Franchise Management
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.19-42
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• 2010

Since circulation market whole surface opening, traditional market is real condition that is looked away more gradually to consumer as reasons of international retail firms and domestic enterprise firms to enter distribution industry, internet mail order rapid increase by information-oriented society, the pursuit of upgradation and normalization by elevation of income level and consumption pattern change that consideration convenience with young consumers as the central figure. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyze stagnation cause of traditional market and problem within a change of new distribution environment, and to develop new approaches for dealing with domestic traditional market relationship prompting competition through activation example analysis of foreign traditional market and domestic traditional market. The result of the study indicated that there are a lot of cases that are begun by a few's merchant with leadership that has been will which is strong in activation in beginning in market's occasion that succeed in activation. In particular, software side such as operational efficiency or marketing expertise strengthening of management is that effect is high relatively than hardware side market activation. Also essential to the settlement of credit transactions using credit cards is important for expanding the effort, for the expansion of credit card merchant credit card advantage and raise awareness among traders about the expected effects is needed. Though these study finding submits plan that create market ecosystem so that many consumers may become place that could visit naturally and create pleasure and convenience, and time, monetary, psychological value of shopping to traditional market, there is sense.