• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국수자원학회 2017년도 학술발표회
• /
• pp.399-400
• /
• 2017

홍수나 가뭄 등 극치 현상의 통계분석 및 빈도해석에 있어 극치분포형이 널리 사용되고 있으며, 이러한 극치분포형의 특성을 이해하기 위해서는 분포형의 오른쪽 꼬리(right tail) 부분 특성을 자세히 분석할 필요가 있다. 이에 따라 본 연구에서는 Monte Carlo 모의를 통하여 다양한 극치분포형의 오른쪽 꼬리 부분의 통계적 특성 및 그 예측 능력을 연구하였다. 극치분포형으로는 우리나라 확률수문량 산정에 널리 활용되고 있는 generalized extreme value (GEV), Gumbel, generalized logistic 분포를 사용하였으며, 매개변수 산정 방법으로는 확률가중모멘트법을 사용하였다. 모의실험의 모분포로는 수문빈도해석에서 많이 사용되는 GEV 분포를 사용하였고, 30년 이상 자료를 보유한 기상청 지점 자료의 왜곡도를 조사하여 모의실험에 사용되는 모집단의 왜곡도로 가정하여 표본 자료를 발생시켰다. 예측 능력의 평가는 재현기간 10~1000년의 확률수문량을 왜곡도계수를 고려한 GEV 도시위치공식을 이용하여 GEV 확률지에 도시하고, 평균제곱근오차(root mean square error), 편의(bias), 평균상대오차(mean relative difference), 평균절대상대오차(mean absolute relative difference)를 이용하여 최적 분포형을 선정함으로써 이루어진다. 또한 예측 능력 평가결과의 타당성 확인을 위해 극치분포형의 적합정도를 잘 나타낸다고 알려진 modified Anderson-Darling 방법의 검정결과와 비교하여 적절성을 확인하였다.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
• /
• 제15권5호
• /
• pp.1949-1953
• /
• 2014

Background: CA125 and HE4 are used in calculating Risk of Malignancy Algorithm (ROMA); and Risk of Malignancy Index (RMI). However, studies showed that normal levels of CA125, and HE4 differ among ethnicities such as between Asians and Caucasians, thus affecting the accuracy of the RMI score and ROMA in predicting ovarian malignancy. This study aimed to determine whether new or modified cutoff values for Ca125, HE4, the RMI score, and ROMA resulted in a better prediction of malignancy compared with the previous or standard ones. Materials and Methods: Serum level of CA125 and HE4 from 128 patients with diagnosis of ovarian tumor that had been collected before surgery at Cipto Mangunkusumo General Hospital (CMH) in Jakarta from November 2010 until May 2011 were reviewed and analysed. The standard cutoff values of these biomarkers, RMI, and ROMA were modified by using logistic regression model. The modified cutoff values were compared to the standard cutoff values in terms of sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy. Results: The modified cutoff value of CA125, HE4, RMI score and ROMA were 165.2 U/mL, 103.4 pM, 368.7, 28/54. The sensitivity and specificity of the modified cutoff values CA125, HE 4, RMI score and ROMA in differentiating benign from malignant and borderline were 67% and 75,4%; 73.1% and 85.2%; 73.1% and 80.3%; and 77.6% and 86.9%. While the sensitivity and specificity of the standard cutoff value of CA125; HE4; RMI score; and ROMA were 91% and 24.6%; 83.6% and 65%; 80.6% and 65.6%; and 91.0% and 42.6%. The accuracy of modified cutoff values compared with standard cutoff values were: 71.2% vs 59.3%, 78.9% vs 75% vs, 76.5% vs 73.4%, and 82% vs 67.9%. Conclusions: The new or modified cutoff values of Ca125, HE4, RMI score and ROMA resulted in higher accuracy compared to the previous or standard ones, at the cost of reduced sensitivity.

• 대한산업공학회지
• /
• 제30권4호
• /
• pp.346-354
• /
• 2004

Most industrial logistic systems have focused on carrying products from manufacturers or distribution centers to customers. In recent years, they are faced with the problem of integrating reverse flows into their transportation systems. In this paper, we address the vehicle routing problems with mixed delivery and pick-up(VRPMDP). Mixed operation of delivery and pick-up during a vehicle tour requires rearrangement of the goods on board. The VRPMDP considers the reshuffling time of goods at customers, hard time windows, and split operation of delivery and pick-up. We construct a mixed integer mathematical model and propose a new genetic algorithm named GAMP for VRPMDP. Computational experiments on various types of test problems are performed to evaluate GAMP against the modified Dethloff's algorithm. The results show that GAMP reduces the total vehicle operation time by 5.9% on average, but takes about six times longer computation time.

• 대한전기학회논문지
• /
• 제39권8호
• /
• pp.856-867
• /
• 1990

In this paper, the convergence and the learning accuracy of the back-propagation (BP) method in neural network are investigated by 1) analyzing the reason for decelerating the convergence of BP method and examining the rapid deceleration of the convergence when the learning is executed on the part of sigmoid activation function with the very small first derivative and 2) proposing the modified logistic activation function by defining, the convergence factor based on the analysis. Learning on the output patterns of binary as well as analog forms are tested by the proposed method. In binary output patter, the test results show that the convergence is accelerated and the learning accuracy is improved, and the weights and thresholds are converged so that the stability of neural network can be enhanced. In analog output patter, the results show that with extensive initial transient phenomena the learning error is decreased according to the convergence factor, subsequently the learning accuracy is enhanced.

• 한국환경성돌연변이발암원학회지
• /
• 제19권2호
• /
• pp.95-101
• /
• 1999

Risk Assessment is an important area in toxicology and the methodology for risk assessment has been developed. Mathematical models used for risk assessment include one-hit multi-hit, two-stage, probit logistic, multistage, and linearized multistage models. For the assessment of exposure dose, environmental monitoring has been applied, but it has limitation to accurately assess exposure level because the levels in the air, water, foods, and soil may vary depending on time of sampling. In addition, humans can be exposed to various sources of exposure and thus it will be impossible to estimate the total level of exposure in humans by environmental monitoring. To eliminate the limitation of environmental monitoring, a direct measurement of toxic materials or modified biomolecules (called biomarkers) associated with the exposure of toxic materials is needed. Here, scientific basis of biomarkers and future direction have been considered for the assessment of carcinogen exposure and cancer risk in humans.

• Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
• /
• 제31권4호
• /
• pp.255-260
• /
• 2015

Height growth models for Pinus thunbergii in Jeju Island were developed in this study using four widely used nonlinear growth models; Exponential, Modified Logistic, Chapman-Richards, and Weibull. All functions were found to be significant at the 1% level. Chapman-Richards model for height-DBH allometry and Weibull model for height-age allometry was chosen as the best model on the all validation. All the model curves showed the similar pattern. Additionally, there was no abnormal pattern when the previous studies were compared. Therefore, these models are highly expected to be used to estimate the tree height using DBH or age for Pinus thunbergii especially in Jeju Island.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
• /
• 제12권2호
• /
• pp.161-170
• /
• 2013

Deployment of green transportation in reverse logistics is a key issue for low carbon technologies. To cope with such logistic innovation, this paper proposes a hybrid approach to solve practical vehicle routing problem (VRP) of pickup type that is common when considering the reverse logistics. Noticing that transportation cost depends not only on distance traveled but also on weight loaded, we propose a hierarchical procedure that can design an economically efficient reverse logistics network even when the scale of the problem becomes very large. Since environmental concerns are of growing importance in the reverse logistics field, we need to reveal some prospects that can reduce $CO_2$ emissions from the economically optimized VRP in the same framework. In order to cope with manifold circumstances, the above idea has been deployed by extending the Weber model to the generalized Weber model and to the case with an intermediate destination. Numerical experiments are carried out to validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach and to explore the prospects for future green reverse logistics.

• 한국환경복원기술학회지
• /
• 제18권6호
• /
• pp.73-83
• /
• 2015

The objective of this study is to establish implications for forest restoration planning in North Korea by analyzing spatio-temporal forest changes and detecting bio-physical factors driving forest degraded. We measured the relationship and spatial distribution between shifting cultivation and sparse forest. We also analyzed between degraded forest land and ecological variables by binary logistic regression to find biophysical drivers of forest degradation and deforestation in North Korea. Between the sparse forest and the shifting cultivation, a positive relationship is found (r=0.91) and scattered discontinuously throughout the country (Moran's I = -1, Z score = -13.46 (p=0.000)). The sparse forest showed a negative relationship with the warmest month(bio 9), the coldest month(bio10), and the minimum of soil water contents (swc_min), while the shifting cultivation had a negative relationship with the warmest month(bio 9) and the minimum of soil water contents(swc_min). However, the most critical drivers convert forests into sloping farmland were the three months rainfall in summer(bio8) and the yearly mean of soil water contents. Such results reflect the growth period of crops which overlaps with the rainy season in North Korea and the recent land reclamation of uplands where the soil water contents are maintained with a dense forest. When South Korea aids forest restoration projects in North Korea, in consideration of food shortage due to North Korea's cropland deficiency, terrace farmlands where soil water contents can be maintained should be excluded from the priority restoration area. In addition, an evaluation method for selecting a potential restoration area must be modified and applied based on multiple criteria including altitude and socio-economic factors in the respective regions.

• Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
• /
• 제58권4호
• /
• pp.328-333
• /
• 2015

Objective : The goal of this study was to assess the effect of high-dose simvastatin on cerebral vasospasm and its clinical outcome after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) in Korean patients. Methods : This study was designed as a prospective observational cohort study. Its subjects were aneurysmal SAH patients who had undergone aneurysm clipping or coiling. They were assigned to 1 of 3 groups : the 20 mg, 40 mg, and 80 mg simvastatin groups. The primary end-point was the occurrence of symptomatic vasospasm. The clinical outcome was assessed with the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score after 1 month and 3 months. The risk factors of the development of vasospasm were assessed by logistic regression analysis. Results : Ninety nine patients with aneurysmal SAH were treated and screened. They were sequentially assigned to the 20 mg (n=22), 40 mg (n=34), and 80 mg (n=31) simvastatin groups. Symptomatic vasospasm occurred in 36.4% of the 20 mg group, 8.8% of the 40 mg group, and 3.2% of the 80 mg group (p=0.003). The multiple logistic regression analysis showed that poor Hunt-Hess grades (OR=5.4 and 95% CI=1.09-26.62) and high-dose (80 mg) simvastatin (OR=0.09 and 95% CI=0.1-0.85) were independent factors of symptomatic vasospasm. The clinical outcomes did not show a significant difference among the three groups. Conclusion : This study demonstrated that 80 mg simvastatin treatment was effective in preventing cerebral vasospasm after aneurysmal SAH, but did not improve the clinical outcome in Korean patients.

• 유기물자원화
• /
• 제21권2호
• /
• pp.88-96
• /
• 2013

본 연구의 목적은 고형폐기물의 메탄발생 특성을 나타내기 위한 1차 반응식과 S형태 식들의 적합성을 평가하는 것이다. S형태 식은 수정 Gompertz와 Logistic 식을 사용하였다. 모델의 적합성을 평가하기 위해 잔차제곱합, 표준제곱근 오차, Akaike's information criterion 등의 통계분석을 실시하였다. AIC (Akaike's information criterion)는 모델의 변수 개수 차이에 따른 모델 적합성을 비교하기 위하여 적용하였다. 1차 반응식의 경우 지체기를 고려하지 않을 때보다 고려하였을 경우 잔차제곱합과 표준제곱근 오차는 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 1차 반응식의 경우 S형태 식보다 AIC가 상대적으로 높게 나타났다. 이는 S형태 식이 1차 반응식보다 메탄발생특성을 나타낼 때에 더욱 적합한 것으로 사료된다.