• Title/Summary/Keyword: Models, statistical

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A Hybrid Recommender System based on Collaborative Filtering with Selective Use of Overall and Multicriteria Ratings (종합 평점과 다기준 평점을 선택적으로 활용하는 협업필터링 기반 하이브리드 추천 시스템)

  • Ku, Min Jung;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.85-109
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    • 2018
  • Recommender system recommends the items expected to be purchased by a customer in the future according to his or her previous purchase behaviors. It has been served as a tool for realizing one-to-one personalization for an e-commerce service company. Traditional recommender systems, especially the recommender systems based on collaborative filtering (CF), which is the most popular recommendation algorithm in both academy and industry, are designed to generate the items list for recommendation by using 'overall rating' - a single criterion. However, it has critical limitations in understanding the customers' preferences in detail. Recently, to mitigate these limitations, some leading e-commerce companies have begun to get feedback from their customers in a form of 'multicritera ratings'. Multicriteria ratings enable the companies to understand their customers' preferences from the multidimensional viewpoints. Moreover, it is easy to handle and analyze the multidimensional ratings because they are quantitative. But, the recommendation using multicritera ratings also has limitation that it may omit detail information on a user's preference because it only considers three-to-five predetermined criteria in most cases. Under this background, this study proposes a novel hybrid recommendation system, which selectively uses the results from 'traditional CF' and 'CF using multicriteria ratings'. Our proposed system is based on the premise that some people have holistic preference scheme, whereas others have composite preference scheme. Thus, our system is designed to use traditional CF using overall rating for the users with holistic preference, and to use CF using multicriteria ratings for the users with composite preference. To validate the usefulness of the proposed system, we applied it to a real-world dataset regarding the recommendation for POI (point-of-interests). Providing personalized POI recommendation is getting more attentions as the popularity of the location-based services such as Yelp and Foursquare increases. The dataset was collected from university students via a Web-based online survey system. Using the survey system, we collected the overall ratings as well as the ratings for each criterion for 48 POIs that are located near K university in Seoul, South Korea. The criteria include 'food or taste', 'price' and 'service or mood'. As a result, we obtain 2,878 valid ratings from 112 users. Among 48 items, 38 items (80%) are used as training dataset, and the remaining 10 items (20%) are used as validation dataset. To examine the effectiveness of the proposed system (i.e. hybrid selective model), we compared its performance to the performances of two comparison models - the traditional CF and the CF with multicriteria ratings. The performances of recommender systems were evaluated by using two metrics - average MAE(mean absolute error) and precision-in-top-N. Precision-in-top-N represents the percentage of truly high overall ratings among those that the model predicted would be the N most relevant items for each user. The experimental system was developed using Microsoft Visual Basic for Applications (VBA). The experimental results showed that our proposed system (avg. MAE = 0.584) outperformed traditional CF (avg. MAE = 0.591) as well as multicriteria CF (avg. AVE = 0.608). We also found that multicriteria CF showed worse performance compared to traditional CF in our data set, which is contradictory to the results in the most previous studies. This result supports the premise of our study that people have two different types of preference schemes - holistic and composite. Besides MAE, the proposed system outperformed all the comparison models in precision-in-top-3, precision-in-top-5, and precision-in-top-7. The results from the paired samples t-test presented that our proposed system outperformed traditional CF with 10% statistical significance level, and multicriteria CF with 1% statistical significance level from the perspective of average MAE. The proposed system sheds light on how to understand and utilize user's preference schemes in recommender systems domain.

A Study on the Prediction Model of Stock Price Index Trend based on GA-MSVM that Simultaneously Optimizes Feature and Instance Selection (입력변수 및 학습사례 선정을 동시에 최적화하는 GA-MSVM 기반 주가지수 추세 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-sik;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.147-168
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    • 2017
  • There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.

Comparison of Labor Inputs from Standard Quantities per Unit and Actual Quantities in Apartment Reinforced Concrete Work (공동주택 골조공사의 표준품셈 노무량과 실투입 노무량 비교)

  • Jeon, Sang-Hoon;Koo, Kyo-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.182-189
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    • 2008
  • In private and public construction works, cost estimation and site productivity management are based on designed labor quantities calculated by the Standard Quantities per Unit (SQU). The designed labor quantities are regarded as the basis for insurance costs and safety and environmental costs and also affect the progress measurement of construction works. Even though the designed labor quantities from the SQU has been considered to be different from actual labor quantities put to construction works, there is no research that empirically analyzes the statistical differences. This study analyzes actual labor quantities of form workers, steel-bar fabricators, concrete pourers in reinforced concrete works of the 43 apartment projects, and compares the actual labor quantities to labor quantities from the SQU. It goes further to scrutinize the critical reasons underlying the differences through a survey on 65 practitioners and interviews with 32 site managers and supervisors. The regression models of labor quantities of the apartment concrete work produced by the present study will contribute to reasonable construction contracts based on the past actual costs and practical site management by the actual labor quantities.

The Analysis of Factors which Affect Business Survey Index Using Regression Trees (회귀나무를 이용한 기업경기실사지수의 영향요인 분석)

  • Chang, Young-Jae
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.63-71
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    • 2010
  • Business entrepreneurs reflect their views of domestic and foreign economic activities on their operation for the growth of their business. The decision, forecasting, and planning based on their economic sentiment affect business operation such as production, investment, and hiring and consequently affect condition of national economy. Business survey index(BSI) is compiled to get the information of business entrepreneurs' economic sentiment for the analysis of business condition. BSI has been used as an important variable in the short-term forecasting models for business cycle analysis, especially during the the period of extreme business fluctuations. Recent financial crisis has arised extreme business fluctuations similar to those caused by currency crisis at the end of 1997, and brought back the importance of BSI as a variable for the economic forecasting. In this paper, the meaning of BSI as an economic sentiment index is reviewed and a GUIDE regression tree is constructed to find out the factors which affect on BSI. The result shows that the variables related to the stability of financial market such as kospi index(Korea composite stock price index) and exchange rate as well as manufacturing operation ratio and consumer goods sales are main factors which affect business entrepreneurs' economic sentiment.

Systematic Bias of Telephone Surveys: Meta Analysis of 2007 Presidential Election Polls (전화조사의 체계적 편향 - 2007년 대통령선거 여론조사들에 대한 메타분석 -)

  • Kim, Se-Yong;Huh, Myung-Hoe
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.375-385
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    • 2009
  • For 2007 Korea presidential election, most polls by telephone surveys indicated Lee Myung-Bak led the second runner-up Jung Dong-Young by certain margin. The margin between two candidates can be estimated accurately by averaging individual poll results, provided there exists no systematic bias in telephone surveys. Most Korean telephone surveys via telephone directory are based on quota samples, with the region, the gender and the age-band as quota variables. Thus the surveys may result in certain systematic bias due to unbalanced factors inherent in quota sampling. The aim of this study is to answer the following questions by the analytic methods adopted in Huh et al. (2004): Question 1. Wasn't there systematic bias in estimates of support rates. Question 2. If yes, what was the source of the bias? To answer the questions, we collected eighteen surveys administered during the election campaign period and applied the iterated proportional weighting (the rim weighting) to the last eleven surveys to obtain the balance in five factors - region, gender, age, occupation and education level. We found that the support rate of Lee Myung-Bak was over-estimated consistently by 1.4%P and that of Jung Dong-Young was underestimated by 0.6%P, resulting in the over-estimation of the margin by 2.0%P. By investigating the Lee Myung-Bak bias with logistic regression models, we conclude that it originated from the under-representation of less educated class and/or the over-representation of house wives in telephone samples.

The Relationship between Customer-Employee Exchange and Organizational Commitment: the moderating effects of Big 5 character-types (고객-종업원 교환관계와 조직몰입 간의 관계: Big 5 성격유형의 조절효과)

  • Baek, You-Sung
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.155-170
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study is to inquire into the relationship between customer-employee exchange and organizational commitment. To achieve the purpose of this study, preliminary studies on customer-employee exchange, Big 5 character-types and organizational commitment after an overview of these variables were examined to design research models and set up research issues. To verify the research issues, a survey was carried out on employees at beauty shops located in Seoul, Gyeonggi, Busan and Ulsan areas. Questionnaires of collected 374 copies were used for a statistical analysis. The results of empirical analysis disclosed in this study are summarized as follows. First, customer-employee exchange had a positive effect on organizational commitment. Second, conscientiousness and openness of Big 5 character-types had a moderating effect on the relationship between customer-employee exchange and organizational commitment. But extraversion, neuroticism and agreeableness of Big 5 character-types had no moderating effect. The implications available through findings stated above are as follows. First, this study confirmed that good customer-employee exchange improves members' emotional commitment to organization. Second, in practical perspective, it may be effective to select employees with high openness and conscientiousness of character traits.

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Influence of High Temperature of the Porcelain Firing Process on the Marginal Fit of Zirconia Core (도재 소성 과정에서의 고온이 지르코니아 코어의 변연적합도에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Jae-Hong;Kim, Ki-Baek
    • Journal of dental hygiene science
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.135-141
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    • 2013
  • One factor for successful prognosis of finished dental prosthesis is good marginal fit. The purpose of this study in vitro investigation was to compare the marginal fit of all-ceramic crown before and after porcelain veneering, to evaluate the influence of high temperature of the porcelain firing on the fit. For this experiment, model of abutment tooth of maxillary right central incisor was prepared. Ten working models were produced. Ten zirconia cores were made by dental computer aided design/computer aided manufacturing system. The marginal fit of specimens were examined using silicone replica technique. Silicone replicas were sectioned four times and were measured through a digital microscope (${\times}160$). Marginal fit is a distance connected between edge end part of specimen and abutment margin. Each specimens was measured twice, the first measurement was done prior to veneering porcelain firing, while the second measurement was done after the porcelain firing to evaluate this process. Statistical analyses were performed with paired t-test. $Mean{\pm}SD$ marginal fit was $60.8{\pm}14.2{\mu}m$ for zirconia core and $86.1{\pm}13.3{\mu}m$ for all-ceramic crown. They were statistically significant differences (p<0.001). But all specimens showed a marginal fit where the gap widths ranged within the clinical recommendation ($120{\mu}m$), all-ceramic crown production using the zirconia core was adequate.

Estimating the determinants of victory and defeat through analyzing records of Korean pro-basketball (한국남자프로농구 경기기록 분석을 통한 승패결정요인 추정: 2010-2011시즌, 2011-2012시즌 정규리그 기록 적용)

  • Kim, Sae-Hyung;Lee, Jun-Woo;Lee, Mi-Sook
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.23 no.5
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    • pp.993-1003
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study was to estimate the determinants of victory and defeat through analyzing records of Korean men pro-basketball. Statistical models of victory and defeat were established by collecting present basketball records (2010-2011, 2011-2012 season). Korea Basketball League (KBL) informs records of every pro-basketball game data. The six offence variables (2P%, 3P%, FT%, OR, AS, TO), and the four defense variables (DR, ST, GD, BS) were used in this study. PASW program was used for logistic regression and Answer Tree program was used for the decision tree. All significance levels were set at .05. Major results were as follows. In the logistic regression, 2P%, 3P%, and TO were three offense variables significantly affecting victory and defeat, and DR, ST, and BS were three significant defense variables. Offensive variables 2P%, 3P%, TO, and AS are used in constructing the decision tree. The highest percentage of victory was 80.85% when 2P% was in 51%-58%, 3P% was more than 31 percent, and TO was less than 11 times. In the decision tree of the defence variables, the highest percentage of victory was 94.12% when DR was more than 24, ST was more than six, and BS was more than two times.

An Application of Software Reliability Estimation Model on Weapon System (국내 무기체계 분야의 소프트웨어 신뢰성 추정 모델 적용 사례)

  • Bak, Da-Un
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.178-186
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    • 2020
  • In the domain of Korean weapon system development, issues about software reliability have become crucial factors when developing a weapon system. There is a process required for weapon system software development and management that includes certain activities required to improve the reliability of software. However, these activities are biased toward static and dynamic analyses of source code and do not include activities necessarily required by the international standard. IEEE std. 1633-2016 defines a process for software reliability engineering and describes software reliability estimation as an essential activity in the process. Software reliability estimation means that collecting defective data during the test and estimating software reliability by using the statistical model. Based on the estimated model, developers could estimate the failure rate and make comparisons with the objective failure rate to determine termination of the test. In this study, we collected defective data and applied reliability estimation models to analyze software reliability in the development of a weapon system. To achieve objective software reliability, we continuously tested our software and quantitatively calculated software reliability. Through the research, we hope that efforts to include activities described by the international standard will be carried out in the domain of Korean weapon system development.

Preliminary three-dimensional analysis of tooth movement and arch dimension change of the maxillary dentition in Class II division 1 malocclusion treated with first premolar extraction: conventional anchorage vs. mini-implant anchorage

  • Park, Heon-Mook;Kim, Byoung-Ho;Yang, Il-Hyung;Baek, Seung-Hak
    • The korean journal of orthodontics
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.280-290
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    • 2012
  • Objective: This study aimed to compare the effects of conventional and orthodontic mini-implant (OMI) anchorage on tooth movement and arch-dimension changes in the maxillary dentition in Class II division 1 (CII div.1) patients. Methods: CII div.1 patients treated with extraction of the maxillary first and mandibular second premolars and sliding mechanics were allotted to conventional anchorage group (CA, n = 12) or OMI anchorage group (OA, n = 12). Pre- and post-treatment three-dimensional virtual maxillary models were superimposed using the best-fit method. Linear, angular, and arch-dimension variables were measured with software program. Mann-Whitney U-test and Wilcoxon signed-rank test were performed for statistical analysis. Results: Compared to the CA group, the OMI group showed more backward movement of the maxillary central and lateral incisors and canine (MXCI, MXLI, MXC, respectively; 1.6 mm, p < 0.001; 0.9 mm, p < 0.05; 1.2 mm, p < 0.001); more intrusion of the MXCI and MXC (1.3 mm, 0.5 mm, all p < 0.01); less forward movement of the maxillary second premolar, first, and second molars (MXP2, MXM1, MXM2, respectively; all 1.0 mm, all p < 0.05); less contraction of the MXP2 and MXM1 (0.7 mm, p < 0.05; 0.9 mm, p < 0.001); less mesial-in rotation of the MXM1 and MXM2 ($2.6^{\circ}$, $2.5^{\circ}$, all p < 0.05); and less decrease of the inter-MXP2, MXM1, and MXM2 widths (1.8 mm, 1.5 mm, 2.0 mm, all p < 0.05). Conclusions: In treatment of CII div.1 malocclusion, OA provided better anchorage and less arch-dimension change in the maxillary posterior teeth than CA during en-masse retraction of the maxillary anterior teeth.