• Title/Summary/Keyword: Model simulation

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Estimation Method of Predicted Time Series Data Based on Absolute Maximum Value (최대 절대값 기반 시계열 데이터 예측 모델 평가 기법)

  • Shin, Ki-Hoon;Kim, Chul;Nam, Sang-Hun;Park, Sung-Jae;Yoo, Sung-Soo
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.103-110
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    • 2018
  • In this paper, we introduce evaluation method of time series prediction model with new approach of Mean Absolute Percentage Error(hereafter MAPE) and Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error(hereafter sMAPE). There are some problems using MAPE and sMAPE. First MAPE can't evaluate Zero observation of dataset. Moreover, when the observed value is very close to zero it evaluate heavier than other methods. Finally it evaluate different measure even same error between observations and predicted values. And sMAPE does different evaluations are made depending on whether the same error value is over-predicted or under-predicted. And it has different measurement according to the each sign, even if error is the same distance. These problems were solved by Maximum Mean Absolute Percentage Error(hereafter mMAPE). we used the absolute maximum of observed value as denominator instead of the observed value in MAPE, when the value is less than 1, removed denominator then solved the problem that the zero value is not defined. and were able to prevent heavier measurement problem. Also, if the absolute maximum of observed value is greater than 1, the evaluation values of mMAPE were compared with those of the other evaluations. With Beijing PM2.5 temperature data and our simulation data, we compared the evaluation values of mMAPE with other evaluations. And we proved that mMAPE can solve the problems that we mentioned.

Analysis and Utilization Strategies of Ventilation Corridor Characteristics in Jeon-ju Area (전주지역의 바람길 특성 분석 및 활용 방안)

  • Eum, Jeong-Hee
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.366-374
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    • 2019
  • This study aims to analyze the characteristics of ventilation corridor and propose its utilization strategies in Jeonju city in order to discuss how to utilize urban ventilation corridors as a planning factor for reducing heat wave impact and fine particle pollution. For these purposes, cold air characteristics such as cold air flow and height of cold air in Jeonju area located in the Honam Jeongmaek were analyzed and major ventilation corridors were specified. Based on them, we proposed mountain management strategies for securing and utilizing ventilation corridors. We used KALM (Kaltluftabflussmodell), a cold air simulation model developed in Germany and identified both the cold air flow and the height of cold air layer generated during 6 hours at night. As a result, the cold air flow generated in the forests located in the northeast and east sides of the Jeonju city became clear and the height of cold air layer increased in the valley terrain and farmland areas with time. In particular, Jeonju City has an ideal structure of urban ventilation corridor. Based on the results, the area where the cold air generation is active was designated as the 'cold air conservation area', and the area requiring the management for the good cold air flow was as the 'cold air management area'. This study is expected to be used as basic data of policy making and research for reducing heat wave impact and fine particle pollution such as climate change adaptation policy and urban forest plans for ventilation corridor composition.

Effects of Nursing Students' Knowledge, Attitude and Nursing Professionalism on Confidence in Performance of Patient Safety (졸업학년 간호대학생의 환자안전 지식, 태도 및 간호전문직관이 환자안전 수행자신감에 미치는 효과)

  • Park, Su-Jin;Choi, Hyo-Sin;Kim, Jeong-Yun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.9
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    • pp.341-350
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    • 2019
  • This research study was conducted to investigate the effect of knowledge, attitude and nursing professionalism on the confidence of the performance of nursing students who had experience with clinical practice and also to provide basic data for the development of nursing students' curriculum. The subjects who participated in this study were 286 students in the 4th year of nursing at two colleges in the Daegu and Gyeongbuk regions. The research data was analyzed using the SPSS 22.0 program. Confidence in performance of patient safety was higher for the women than for men, and for the students of an older age and higher academic achievement. Confidence in performance of patient safety was positively related to knowledge (r=.25, p=.000), attitude (r=.39, p=.000), nursing professionalism (r=.33, p=.000) and all these had statistical significance. On the multiple regression analysis, the coefficient of determination ($R^2$) was .49 and the explanatory power of the model was 49.2% (F=24.04, p=.000). The most important factor affecting confidence in performance of patient safety was the experience of having undergone patient safety education. Based on these results, it is necessary to seek various educational methods to expand the concept of patient safety from the beginning of the undergraduate course work. Especially, we think that various education strategies such as simulation education methods or information videos are needed to develop scenarios related to patient safety.

Framework for Car Safety Education Virtual Reality Simulation (자동차 안전교육 VR 시뮬레이션 제작을 위한 프레임워크)

  • Xie, Qiao;Ding, Xiu Hui;Jang, Young-Jick;Yun, Tae-Soo
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.10 no.9
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    • pp.37-45
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    • 2019
  • In recent years, the emergence of virtual reality (VR Virtual Reality) technology has provided a new model of safety education, enabling users to learn and respond to disasters in a virtual safety education environment. However, the related VR products related to domestic and foreign R & D are relatively simple, there is no practical training on specific accident, and it is not practical enough to play a sufficient role in safety education. In this paper, the problems and disadvantages of VR technology applied in the field of automobile safety education as an example of automobile accident among the types of disasters are examined, and a system framework of automotive safety education based on VR technology is proposed. The vehicle safety education system proposed in this paper will help users to improve driving safety consciousness, to acquire safety knowledge in driving, and to acquire driving safety skill which is very important for automobile safety education. In addition, the design and production methods of safety education based on VR technology are considered to have important reference implications for the application of modern teaching and teaching theory by integrating with VR technology and developing related teaching materials products and finally introducing education.

Analysis of climate change impact on flow duration characteristics in the Mekong River (기후변화에 따른 메콩강 유역의 미래 유황변화 분석)

  • Lee, Daeeop;Lee, Giha;Song, Bonggeun;Lee, Seungsoo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.52 no.1
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    • pp.71-82
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the Mekong River streamflow alteration due to climate change. The future climate change scenarios were produced by bias corrections of the data from East Asia RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, given by HadGEM3-RA. Then, SWAT model was used for discharge simulation of the Kratie, the main point of the Mekong River (watershed area: $646,000km^2$, 88% of the annual average flow rate of the Mekong River). As a result of the climate change analysis, the annual precipitation of the Kratie upper-watershed increase in both scenarios compared to the baseline yearly average precipitation. The monthly precipitation increase is relatively large from June to November. In particular, precipitation fluctuated greatly in the RCP 8.5 rather than RCP 4.5. Monthly average maximum and minimum temperature are predicted to be increased in both scenarios. As well as precipitation, the temperature increase in RCP 8.5 scenarios was found to be more significant than RCP 4.5. In addition, as a result of the duration curve comparison, the streamflow variation will become larger in low and high flow rate and the drought will be further intensified in the future.

Analysis of Truck Platooning Operation Conditions Affecting Traffic Flow (교통류에 영향을 주는 화물차 군집주행 운영 조건 분석)

  • Jung, Harim;Lee, Young-taek;Park, Sangmin;Cho, Hyunbae;Yun, Ilsoo
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.106-117
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    • 2021
  • In Korea, interest in truck platooning is increasing because most cargo transportation is done by road. Truck platooning is the operation of two or more trucks in a row to form one platoon, which can increase road capacity and improve fuel efficiency. In this study, to analyze the effect of truck platooning on traffic flow, scenarios were created according to traffic conditions and truck platooning operating conditions. In order to understand the effect of the truck platooning operating conditions, correlation analysis was conducted with the average travel speed, the number of lane change disturbance, and the number of disturbance in the entry/exit section. As a result, the number of trucks in the platoon, the spacing of trucks in the platoon, and the spacing between platoons were found to have an effect on the average speed and the number of lane change disturbance In addition, the truck platooning ratio was found to have a strong correlation with the average travel speed and the number of lane change disturbance regardless of the LOS.

A Study on Minimization of Harbor Oscillations by Infragravity Waves Using Permeable Breakwater (투과제를 이용한 중력외파의 항내 수면진동 저감 방법에 대한 연구)

  • Kwak, Moon Su;Jeong, Weon Mu
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.434-445
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    • 2020
  • In this study, the minimization of harbor oscillation using permeable breakwater was applied to the actual harbor and investigated an effect of minimization by computer simulation in order to take into account the water quality problems and measures of harbor oscillation by infragravity waves at the same time. The study site is Mukho harbor located at East coast of Korea that harbor oscillation has been occurred frequently. The infragravity waves obtained by analyzing the observed field data for five years focused on the distribution between wave periods of 40 s and 70 s and wave heights in less than 0.1 m was 94% of analyzing data. The target wave periods was 68.0 s. The most effective method of minimization of harbor oscillation by infragravity waves was to install a detached permeable breakwater with transmission coefficient of 0.3 on the outside harbor and replace some area of the vertical wall in the harbor with wave energy dissipating structure to achieve a reflectivity of 0.9 or less. The amplitude reduction rate of this method shown in 27.4%. And the effect of the difference in transmission coefficient of permeable breakwater on the reduction rate of the amplitude was not significant.

Numerical Simulation on Control of Tsunami by Resonator (I) (for Imwon and Mukho ports) (공진장치에 의한 지진해일파의 제어에 관한 수치시뮬레이션(I) (임원항과 묵호항에 대해))

  • Lee, Kwang-Ho;Jeon, Jong-Hyeok;Kim, Do-Sam;Lee, Yun-Du
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.481-495
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    • 2020
  • After the resonator on the basis of the wave-filter theory was designed to control the waves with a specific frequency range surging into the harbor, the several case with the use of resonator have been reported in some part of sea, including the port of Long Beach, USA, and yacht harbor at Rome, Italy in order to control the long-period wave motion from the vessels. Recently, the utility and applicability of the resonator has been sufficiently verified in respect of the control of tsunami approximated as the solitary wave and/or the super long-period waves. However, the case with the application of tsunami in the real sea have not been reported yet. In this research, the respective case with the use of existing resonator at the port of Mukho and Imwon located in the eastern coast of South Korea were studied by using the numerical analysis through the COMCOT model adapting the reduction rate of 1983 Central East Sea tsunami and 1993 Hokkaido Southwest off tsunami. Consequently, the effectiveness of resonator against tsunami in the real sea was confirmed through the reduction rate of maximum 40~50% at the port of Mukho, and maximum 21% at the port of Imwom, respectively. In addition, it was concluded that it is necessary to study about the various case with application of different shape, arrangement, and size of resonator in order to design the optimal resonator considering the site condition.

Numerical Simulation on Control of Tsunami by Resonator (II) (for Samcheok port) (공진장치에 의한 지진해일파의 제어에 관한 수치시뮬레이션(II) (삼척항에 대해))

  • Lee, Kwang-Ho;Jeon, Jong-Hyeok;Kim, Do-Sam;Lee, Yun-Du
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.496-505
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    • 2020
  • In the previous research, the effectiveness of resonator was confirmed through the numerical analysis on two cases with the use of existing resonator at the Mukho and Imwon ports located in the eastern coast of South Korea by discussing the reduction rates of 1983 Central East Sea tsunami, and 1993 Hokkaido Southwest off tsunami, respectively. In this study, the reduction rates of tsunami height with three different resonators, Type I, II-1, and II-2, at the Samcheok port were examined respectively through the numerical analysis using COMCOT model under the same condition as the previous study. It was discussed the spatial distribution of maximum height of tsunami, change of water level, and effectiveness of resonator with the presence of new types of resonator, and change of their sizes. As a result, the effectiveness of resonator was verified through the application of new types of resonator reducing about maximum 40% of tsunami height. In order to design the optimal resonator for the variety of site condition, it is necessary to research about the various cases applying different shape, arrangement, and size of resonator as further study.

Statistical Analysis of Extreme Values of Financial Ratios (재무비율의 극단치에 대한 통계적 분석)

  • Joo, Jihwan
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.247-268
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    • 2021
  • Investors mainly use PER and PBR among financial ratios for valuation and investment decision-making. I conduct an analysis of two basic financial ratios from a statistical perspective. Financial ratios contain key accounting numbers which reflect firm fundamentals and are useful for valuation or risk analysis such as enterprise credit evaluation and default prediction. The distribution of financial data tends to be extremely heavy-tailed, and PER and PBR show exceedingly high level of kurtosis and their extreme cases often contain significant information on financial risk. In this respect, Extreme Value Theory is required to fit its right tail more precisely. I introduce not only GPD but exGPD. GPD is conventionally preferred model in Extreme Value Theory and exGPD is log-transformed distribution of GPD. exGPD has recently proposed as an alternative of GPD(Lee and Kim, 2019). First, I conduct a simulation for comparing performances of the two distributions using the goodness of fit measures and the estimation of 90-99% percentiles. I also conduct an empirical analysis of Information Technology firms in Korea. Finally, exGPD shows better performance especially for PBR, suggesting that exGPD could be an alternative for GPD for the analysis of financial ratios.