• Title/Summary/Keyword: Model and algorithm development

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Development of the model and the hybrid algorithm toy analyzing the dynamic heat conduction in the CPES system (CPFS 내에서 일어나는 동적 열전도 현상을 해석하기 위한 수식 및 혼합알고리즘 개발)

  • Yun Jongpil;Kwon Seong-Pil;Yoon En Sup
    • 한국가스학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2003.10a
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    • pp.120-125
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    • 2003
  • 본 연구는 원자력 발전소에 있는 방화벽의 케이블 관통부위에 설치된 CPFS(Cable Penetration Fire Stop)시스템 안에서 일어나는 동적열전달 현상을 3 차원으로 나타낼 수 있는 시험시뮬레이터에 사용될 수학적 모델과 수치계산 알고리즘의 개발에 관한 것이다. CPFS 내에서 일어나는 열전도 현상을 나타내는 지배방정식은 주어진 조건들 하에서 포물선형 편미분방정식(Parabolic PDE)으로 나타난다. 문제를 단순화하기 위해 열의 흐름을 두 성분으로 나누었다 즉, 케이블과 평행한 선을 따라서 일어나는 열전도와 벽면과 평행한 평면 위에서 일어나는 열전도로 나누었다. 먼저 선을 따라 일어나는 동적 열전도 현상을 나타내는 PDE를 연속과완화(SOR: Successive Over-Relaxation)를 적용하여 유한한 불연속점들에 대한 연립 상미분방정식(ODE)으로 전환했고, 그 연립방정식은 ODE Solver 를 이용하여 풀 수 있었다. 둘째로, 각 불연속 점에 위치한 평면 위에서 일어나는 열전도를 계산하기 위해서, 유한요소의 합을 근사식으로 이용하여 PDE를 ODE로 전환해서 계산하는 유한요소법(Finite Element Method)이 이용된다. 여기서 시간과 공간의 함수 T(x, y, z, t)인 온도는 각 선의 점들과 각 평면의 요소들에 대해서 일정한 시간간격으로 초기온도와 경계온도를 업데이트하여 계산을 반복한다. 이러한 일련의 계산결과를 바탕으로 CPFS 시스템 내에서의 온도분포의 동적인 변화를 해석한다. 결론적으로 관통하는 케이블이 CPFS 시스템의 온도분포에 매우 중요한 역할을 한다는 것을 알 수 있다. 시뮬레이션 결과는 CPFS 내의 온도분포를 쉽게 이해할 수 있도록 3 차원 그래픽으로 나타냈으며, 상용소프트웨어 FEMLAB 으로 계산한 결과와 비교해서 개발된 모델과 계산 알고리즘의 정당성을 보였다. 맞이하고 있음을 볼 수 있다. 국내광업이 21C 급변하는 산업환경에 적응하여 생존하기 위해서는 각종 첨단산업에서 요구하는 소량 다품종의 원료광물을 적기에 공급 할 수 있는 전문화된 기술력을 하루속히 확보해야 하며, 이를 위해 고품위의 원료광물 확보를 위한 탐사 및 개발을 적극 추진하고 가공기술의 선진화를 위해 선진국과의 기술제휴 등 자원산업 글로벌화 정책이 절실히 요구되고 있음을 알 수 있다. 또한 삶의 질을 향상시키려는 현대인의 가치관에 부합하기 위해서는 각종 소비제품의 원료를 제공하는 광업의 본래 목적 이외에도 자연환경 훼손을 최소화하며 개발 할 수밖에 없는 구조적인 어려움에 직면할 수밖에 없다. 이처럼 국내광업이 안고 있는 여러 가지 난제들을 극복하기 위해서는 업계와 정부가 합심하여 국내광업 육성의 중요성을 재인식하고 새로운 마음가짐으로 관련 정책을 수립 일관성 있게 추진해 나가야 할 것으로 보인다.의 연구 결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 브랜드 이미지와 서비스 품질과의 관계에서 브랜드이미지는 서비스 품질의 선행변수가 될 수 있음을 증명하였으며 4개 요인의 이미지 중 사풍이미지를 제외한 영업 이미지, 제품 이미지, 마케팅 이미지가 서비스 품질에 영향을 미치고 있음을 알 수 있다. 둘째, 지각된 서비스 품질과 가격 수용성과의 관계에서, 서비스 품질은 최소 가격에 신뢰서비스 요인에서 정의 영향을 미치고 있으나 부가서비스, 환경서비스에서는 역의 영향을 미침을 알수 있고, 최대 가격에 있어서는 욕구서비스 요인은 정의 영향을 미치지만 부가서비스의 경우에는 역의 영향을 미치고 있음을 알 수 있다. 셋째, 서비스품질과 재 방문 의도와의 관계에 있어서 서비스품질은 재 방문 의도에 영향을 미침을 알 수 있다. 따라서 브랜드 이미지는 서비스품질의 선행변수가 될 수 있으며, 서비스품질은 가격 수용성과 재방문 의도에 영향을 미치고 있음을 알 수

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Development of 3D Impulse Calculation Technique for Falling Down of Trees (수목 도복의 3D 충격량 산출 기법 개발)

  • Kim, Chae-Won;Kim, Choong-Sik
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.51 no.2
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2023
  • This study intended to develop a technique for quantitatively and 3-dimensionally predicting the potential failure zone and impulse that may occur when trees are fall down. The main outcomes of this study are as follows. First, this study established the potential failure zone and impulse calculation formula in order to quantitatively calculate the risks generated when trees are fallen down. When estimating the potential failure zone, the calculation was performed by magnifying the height of trees by 1.5 times, reflecting the likelihood of trees falling down and slipping. With regard to the slope of a tree, the range of 360° centered on the root collar was set in the case of trees that grow upright and the range of 180° from the inclined direction was set in the case of trees that grow inclined. The angular momentum was calculated by reflecting the rotational motion from the root collar when the trees fell down, and the impulse was calculated by converting it into the linear momentum. Second, the program to calculate a potential failure zone and impulse was developed using Rhino3D and Grasshopper. This study created the 3-dimensional models of the shapes for topography, buildings, and trees using the Rhino3D, thereby connecting them to Grasshopper to construct the spatial information. The algorithm was programmed using the calculation formula in the stage of risk calculation. This calculation considered the information on the trees' growth such as the height, inclination, and weight of trees and the surrounding environment including adjacent trees, damage targets, and analysis ranges. In the stage of risk inquiry, the calculation results were visualized into a three-dimensional model by summarizing them. For instance, the risk degrees were classified into various colors to efficiently determine the dangerous trees and dangerous areas.

Analysis and Evaluation of Frequent Pattern Mining Technique based on Landmark Window (랜드마크 윈도우 기반의 빈발 패턴 마이닝 기법의 분석 및 성능평가)

  • Pyun, Gwangbum;Yun, Unil
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.101-107
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    • 2014
  • With the development of online service, recent forms of databases have been changed from static database structures to dynamic stream database structures. Previous data mining techniques have been used as tools of decision making such as establishment of marketing strategies and DNA analyses. However, the capability to analyze real-time data more quickly is necessary in the recent interesting areas such as sensor network, robotics, and artificial intelligence. Landmark window-based frequent pattern mining, one of the stream mining approaches, performs mining operations with respect to parts of databases or each transaction of them, instead of all the data. In this paper, we analyze and evaluate the techniques of the well-known landmark window-based frequent pattern mining algorithms, called Lossy counting and hMiner. When Lossy counting mines frequent patterns from a set of new transactions, it performs union operations between the previous and current mining results. hMiner, which is a state-of-the-art algorithm based on the landmark window model, conducts mining operations whenever a new transaction occurs. Since hMiner extracts frequent patterns as soon as a new transaction is entered, we can obtain the latest mining results reflecting real-time information. For this reason, such algorithms are also called online mining approaches. We evaluate and compare the performance of the primitive algorithm, Lossy counting and the latest one, hMiner. As the criteria of our performance analysis, we first consider algorithms' total runtime and average processing time per transaction. In addition, to compare the efficiency of storage structures between them, their maximum memory usage is also evaluated. Lastly, we show how stably the two algorithms conduct their mining works with respect to the databases that feature gradually increasing items. With respect to the evaluation results of mining time and transaction processing, hMiner has higher speed than that of Lossy counting. Since hMiner stores candidate frequent patterns in a hash method, it can directly access candidate frequent patterns. Meanwhile, Lossy counting stores them in a lattice manner; thus, it has to search for multiple nodes in order to access the candidate frequent patterns. On the other hand, hMiner shows worse performance than that of Lossy counting in terms of maximum memory usage. hMiner should have all of the information for candidate frequent patterns to store them to hash's buckets, while Lossy counting stores them, reducing their information by using the lattice method. Since the storage of Lossy counting can share items concurrently included in multiple patterns, its memory usage is more efficient than that of hMiner. However, hMiner presents better efficiency than that of Lossy counting with respect to scalability evaluation due to the following reasons. If the number of items is increased, shared items are decreased in contrast; thereby, Lossy counting's memory efficiency is weakened. Furthermore, if the number of transactions becomes higher, its pruning effect becomes worse. From the experimental results, we can determine that the landmark window-based frequent pattern mining algorithms are suitable for real-time systems although they require a significant amount of memory. Hence, we need to improve their data structures more efficiently in order to utilize them additionally in resource-constrained environments such as WSN(Wireless sensor network).

Development of Multimedia Annotation and Retrieval System using MPEG-7 based Semantic Metadata Model (MPEG-7 기반 의미적 메타데이터 모델을 이용한 멀티미디어 주석 및 검색 시스템의 개발)

  • An, Hyoung-Geun;Koh, Jae-Jin
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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    • v.14D no.6
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    • pp.573-584
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    • 2007
  • As multimedia information recently increases fast, various types of retrieval of multimedia data are becoming issues of great importance. For the efficient multimedia data processing, semantics based retrieval techniques are required that can extract the meaning contents of multimedia data. Existing retrieval methods of multimedia data are annotation-based retrieval, feature-based retrieval and annotation and feature integration based retrieval. These systems take annotator a lot of efforts and time and we should perform complicated calculation for feature extraction. In addition. created data have shortcomings that we should go through static search that do not change. Also, user-friendly and semantic searching techniques are not supported. This paper proposes to develop S-MARS(Semantic Metadata-based Multimedia Annotation and Retrieval System) which can represent and extract multimedia data efficiently using MPEG-7. The system provides a graphical user interface for annotating, searching, and browsing multimedia data. It is implemented on the basis of the semantic metadata model to represent multimedia information. The semantic metadata about multimedia data is organized on the basis of multimedia description schema using XML schema that basically comply with the MPEG-7 standard. In conclusion. the proposed scheme can be easily implemented on any multimedia platforms supporting XML technology. It can be utilized to enable efficient semantic metadata sharing between systems, and it will contribute to improving the retrieval correctness and the user's satisfaction on embedding based multimedia retrieval algorithm method.

A CF-based Health Functional Recommender System using Extended User Similarity Measure (확장된 사용자 유사도를 이용한 CF-기반 건강기능식품 추천 시스템)

  • Sein Hong;Euiju Jeong;Jaekyeong Kim
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2023
  • With the recent rapid development of ICT(Information and Communication Technology) and the popularization of digital devices, the size of the online market continues to grow. As a result, we live in a flood of information. Thus, customers are facing information overload problems that require a lot of time and money to select products. Therefore, a personalized recommender system has become an essential methodology to address such issues. Collaborative Filtering(CF) is the most widely used recommender system. Traditional recommender systems mainly utilize quantitative data such as rating values, resulting in poor recommendation accuracy. Quantitative data cannot fully reflect the user's preference. To solve such a problem, studies that reflect qualitative data, such as review contents, are being actively conducted these days. To quantify user review contents, text mining was used in this study. The general CF consists of the following three steps: user-item matrix generation, Top-N neighborhood group search, and Top-K recommendation list generation. In this study, we propose a recommendation algorithm that applies an extended similarity measure, which utilize quantified review contents in addition to user rating values. After calculating review similarity by applying TF-IDF, Word2Vec, and Doc2Vec techniques to review content, extended similarity is created by combining user rating similarity and quantified review contents. To verify this, we used user ratings and review data from the e-commerce site Amazon's "Health and Personal Care". The proposed recommendation model using extended similarity measure showed superior performance to the traditional recommendation model using only user rating value-based similarity measure. In addition, among the various text mining techniques, the similarity obtained using the TF-IDF technique showed the best performance when used in the neighbor group search and recommendation list generation step.

Development of a complex failure prediction system using Hierarchical Attention Network (Hierarchical Attention Network를 이용한 복합 장애 발생 예측 시스템 개발)

  • Park, Youngchan;An, Sangjun;Kim, Mintae;Kim, Wooju
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.127-148
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    • 2020
  • The data center is a physical environment facility for accommodating computer systems and related components, and is an essential foundation technology for next-generation core industries such as big data, smart factories, wearables, and smart homes. In particular, with the growth of cloud computing, the proportional expansion of the data center infrastructure is inevitable. Monitoring the health of these data center facilities is a way to maintain and manage the system and prevent failure. If a failure occurs in some elements of the facility, it may affect not only the relevant equipment but also other connected equipment, and may cause enormous damage. In particular, IT facilities are irregular due to interdependence and it is difficult to know the cause. In the previous study predicting failure in data center, failure was predicted by looking at a single server as a single state without assuming that the devices were mixed. Therefore, in this study, data center failures were classified into failures occurring inside the server (Outage A) and failures occurring outside the server (Outage B), and focused on analyzing complex failures occurring within the server. Server external failures include power, cooling, user errors, etc. Since such failures can be prevented in the early stages of data center facility construction, various solutions are being developed. On the other hand, the cause of the failure occurring in the server is difficult to determine, and adequate prevention has not yet been achieved. In particular, this is the reason why server failures do not occur singularly, cause other server failures, or receive something that causes failures from other servers. In other words, while the existing studies assumed that it was a single server that did not affect the servers and analyzed the failure, in this study, the failure occurred on the assumption that it had an effect between servers. In order to define the complex failure situation in the data center, failure history data for each equipment existing in the data center was used. There are four major failures considered in this study: Network Node Down, Server Down, Windows Activation Services Down, and Database Management System Service Down. The failures that occur for each device are sorted in chronological order, and when a failure occurs in a specific equipment, if a failure occurs in a specific equipment within 5 minutes from the time of occurrence, it is defined that the failure occurs simultaneously. After configuring the sequence for the devices that have failed at the same time, 5 devices that frequently occur simultaneously within the configured sequence were selected, and the case where the selected devices failed at the same time was confirmed through visualization. Since the server resource information collected for failure analysis is in units of time series and has flow, we used Long Short-term Memory (LSTM), a deep learning algorithm that can predict the next state through the previous state. In addition, unlike a single server, the Hierarchical Attention Network deep learning model structure was used in consideration of the fact that the level of multiple failures for each server is different. This algorithm is a method of increasing the prediction accuracy by giving weight to the server as the impact on the failure increases. The study began with defining the type of failure and selecting the analysis target. In the first experiment, the same collected data was assumed as a single server state and a multiple server state, and compared and analyzed. The second experiment improved the prediction accuracy in the case of a complex server by optimizing each server threshold. In the first experiment, which assumed each of a single server and multiple servers, in the case of a single server, it was predicted that three of the five servers did not have a failure even though the actual failure occurred. However, assuming multiple servers, all five servers were predicted to have failed. As a result of the experiment, the hypothesis that there is an effect between servers is proven. As a result of this study, it was confirmed that the prediction performance was superior when the multiple servers were assumed than when the single server was assumed. In particular, applying the Hierarchical Attention Network algorithm, assuming that the effects of each server will be different, played a role in improving the analysis effect. In addition, by applying a different threshold for each server, the prediction accuracy could be improved. This study showed that failures that are difficult to determine the cause can be predicted through historical data, and a model that can predict failures occurring in servers in data centers is presented. It is expected that the occurrence of disability can be prevented in advance using the results of this study.

Development of Gated Myocardial SPECT Analysis Software and Evaluation of Left Ventricular Contraction Function (게이트 심근 SPECT 분석 소프트웨어의 개발과 좌심실 수축 기능 평가)

  • Lee, Byeong-Il;Lee, Dong-Soo;Lee, Jae-Sung;Chung, June-Key;Lee, Myung-Chul;Choi, Heung-Kook
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.73-82
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    • 2003
  • Objectives: A new software (Cardiac SPECT Analyzer: CSA) was developed for quantification of volumes and election fraction on gated myocardial SPECT. Volumes and ejection fraction by CSA were validated by comparing with those quantified by Quantitative Gated SPECT (QGS) software. Materials and Methods: Gated myocardial SPECT was peformed in 40 patients with ejection fraction from 15% to 85%. In 26 patients, gated myocardial SPECT was acquired again with the patients in situ. A cylinder model was used to eliminate noise semi-automatically and profile data was extracted using Gaussian fitting after smoothing. The boundary points of endo- and epicardium were found using an iterative learning algorithm. Enddiastolic (EDV) and endsystolic volumes (ESV) and election fraction (EF) were calculated. These values were compared with those calculated by QGS and the same gated SPECT data was repeatedly quantified by CSA and variation of the values on sequential measurements of the same patients on the repeated acquisition. Results: From the 40 patient data, EF, EDV and ESV by CSA were correlated with those by QGS with the correlation coefficients of 0.97, 0.92, 0.96. Two standard deviation (SD) of EF on Bland Altman plot was 10.1%. Repeated measurements of EF, EDV, and ESV by CSA were correlated with each other with the coefficients of 0.96, 0.99, and 0.99 for EF, EDV and ESV respectively. On repeated acquisition, reproducibility was also excellent with correlation coefficients of 0.89, 0.97, 0.98, and coefficient of variation of 8.2%, 5.4mL, 8.5mL and 2SD of 10.6%, 21.2mL, and 16.4mL on Bland Altman plot for EF, EDV and ESV. Conclusion: We developed the software of CSA for quantification of volumes and ejection fraction on gated myocardial SPECT. Volumes and ejection fraction quantified using this software was found valid for its correctness and precision.

Performance Evaluation of Monitoring System for Sargassum horneri Using GOCI-II: Focusing on the Results of Removing False Detection in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea (GOCI-II 기반 괭생이모자반 모니터링 시스템 성능 평가: 황해 및 동중국해 해역 오탐지 제거 결과를 중심으로)

  • Han-bit Lee;Ju-Eun Kim;Moon-Seon Kim;Dong-Su Kim;Seung-Hwan Min;Tae-Ho Kim
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.39 no.6_2
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    • pp.1615-1633
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    • 2023
  • Sargassum horneri is one of the floating algae in the sea, which breeds in large quantities in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea and then flows into the coast of Republic of Korea, causing various problems such as destroying the environment and damaging fish farms. In order to effectively prevent damage and preserve the coastal environment, the development of Sargassum horneri detection algorithms using satellite-based remote sensing technology has been actively developed. However, incorrect detection information causes an increase in the moving distance of ships collecting Sargassum horneri and confusion in the response of related local governments or institutions,so it is very important to minimize false detections when producing Sargassum horneri spatial information. This study applied technology to automatically remove false detection results using the GOCI-II-based Sargassum horneri detection algorithm of the National Ocean Satellite Center (NOSC) of the Korea Hydrographic and Oceanography Agency (KHOA). Based on the results of analyzing the causes of major false detection results, it includes a process of removing linear and sporadic false detections and green algae that occurs in large quantities along the coast of China in spring and summer by considering them as false detections. The technology to automatically remove false detection was applied to the dates when Sargassum horneri occurred from February 24 to June 25, 2022. Visual assessment results were generated using mid-resolution satellite images, qualitative and quantitative evaluations were performed. Linear false detection results were completely removed, and most of the sporadic and green algae false detection results that affected the distribution were removed. Even after the automatic false detection removal process, it was possible to confirm the distribution area of Sargassum horneri compared to the visual assessment results, and the accuracy and precision calculated using the binary classification model averaged 97.73% and 95.4%, respectively. Recall value was very low at 29.03%, which is presumed to be due to the effect of Sargassum horneri movement due to the observation time discrepancy between GOCI-II and mid-resolution satellite images, differences in spatial resolution, location deviation by orthocorrection, and cloud masking. The results of this study's removal of false detections of Sargassum horneri can determine the spatial distribution status in near real-time, but there are limitations in accurately estimating biomass. Therefore, continuous research on upgrading the Sargassum horneri monitoring system must be conducted to use it as data for establishing future Sargassum horneri response plans.

Individual Thinking Style leads its Emotional Perception: Development of Web-style Design Evaluation Model and Recommendation Algorithm Depending on Consumer Regulatory Focus (사고가 시각을 바꾼다: 조절 초점에 따른 소비자 감성 기반 웹 스타일 평가 모형 및 추천 알고리즘 개발)

  • Kim, Keon-Woo;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.171-196
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    • 2018
  • With the development of the web, two-way communication and evaluation became possible and marketing paradigms shifted. In order to meet the needs of consumers, web design trends are continuously responding to consumer feedback. As the web becomes more and more important, both academics and businesses are studying consumer emotions and satisfaction on the web. However, some consumer characteristics are not well considered. Demographic characteristics such as age and sex have been studied extensively, but few studies consider psychological characteristics such as regulatory focus (i.e., emotional regulation). In this study, we analyze the effect of web style on consumer emotion. Many studies analyze the relationship between the web and regulatory focus, but most concentrate on the purpose of web use, particularly motivation and information search, rather than on web style and design. The web communicates with users through visual elements. Because the human brain is influenced by all five senses, both design factors and emotional responses are important in the web environment. Therefore, in this study, we examine the relationship between consumer emotion and satisfaction and web style and design. Previous studies have considered the effects of web layout, structure, and color on emotions. In this study, however, we excluded these web components, in contrast to earlier studies, and analyzed the relationship between consumer satisfaction and emotional indexes of web-style only. To perform this analysis, we collected consumer surveys presenting 40 web style themes to 204 consumers. Each consumer evaluated four themes. The emotional adjectives evaluated by consumers were composed of 18 contrast pairs, and the upper emotional indexes were extracted through factor analysis. The emotional indexes were 'softness,' 'modernity,' 'clearness,' and 'jam.' Hypotheses were established based on the assumption that emotional indexes have different effects on consumer satisfaction. After the analysis, hypotheses 1, 2, and 3 were accepted and hypothesis 4 was rejected. While hypothesis 4 was rejected, its effect on consumer satisfaction was negative, not positive. This means that emotional indexes such as 'softness,' 'modernity,' and 'clearness' have a positive effect on consumer satisfaction. In other words, consumers prefer emotions that are soft, emotional, natural, rounded, dynamic, modern, elaborate, unique, bright, pure, and clear. 'Jam' has a negative effect on consumer satisfaction. It means, consumer prefer the emotion which is empty, plain, and simple. Regulatory focus shows differences in motivation and propensity in various domains. It is important to consider organizational behavior and decision making according to the regulatory focus tendency, and it affects not only political, cultural, ethical judgments and behavior but also broad psychological problems. Regulatory focus also differs from emotional response. Promotion focus responds more strongly to positive emotional responses. On the other hand, prevention focus has a strong response to negative emotions. Web style is a type of service, and consumer satisfaction is affected not only by cognitive evaluation but also by emotion. This emotional response depends on whether the consumer will benefit or harm himself. Therefore, it is necessary to confirm the difference of the consumer's emotional response according to the regulatory focus which is one of the characteristics and viewpoint of the consumers about the web style. After MMR analysis result, hypothesis 5.3 was accepted, and hypothesis 5.4 was rejected. But hypothesis 5.4 supported in the opposite direction to the hypothesis. After validation, we confirmed the mechanism of emotional response according to the tendency of regulatory focus. Using the results, we developed the structure of web-style recommendation system and recommend methods through regulatory focus. We classified the regulatory focus group in to three categories that promotion, grey, prevention. Then, we suggest web-style recommend method along the group. If we further develop this study, we expect that the existing regulatory focus theory can be extended not only to the motivational part but also to the emotional behavioral response according to the regulatory focus tendency. Moreover, we believe that it is possible to recommend web-style according to regulatory focus and emotional desire which consumers most prefer.

An Intelligent Decision Support System for Selecting Promising Technologies for R&D based on Time-series Patent Analysis (R&D 기술 선정을 위한 시계열 특허 분석 기반 지능형 의사결정지원시스템)

  • Lee, Choongseok;Lee, Suk Joo;Choi, Byounggu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.79-96
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    • 2012
  • As the pace of competition dramatically accelerates and the complexity of change grows, a variety of research have been conducted to improve firms' short-term performance and to enhance firms' long-term survival. In particular, researchers and practitioners have paid their attention to identify promising technologies that lead competitive advantage to a firm. Discovery of promising technology depends on how a firm evaluates the value of technologies, thus many evaluating methods have been proposed. Experts' opinion based approaches have been widely accepted to predict the value of technologies. Whereas this approach provides in-depth analysis and ensures validity of analysis results, it is usually cost-and time-ineffective and is limited to qualitative evaluation. Considerable studies attempt to forecast the value of technology by using patent information to overcome the limitation of experts' opinion based approach. Patent based technology evaluation has served as a valuable assessment approach of the technological forecasting because it contains a full and practical description of technology with uniform structure. Furthermore, it provides information that is not divulged in any other sources. Although patent information based approach has contributed to our understanding of prediction of promising technologies, it has some limitations because prediction has been made based on the past patent information, and the interpretations of patent analyses are not consistent. In order to fill this gap, this study proposes a technology forecasting methodology by integrating patent information approach and artificial intelligence method. The methodology consists of three modules : evaluation of technologies promising, implementation of technologies value prediction model, and recommendation of promising technologies. In the first module, technologies promising is evaluated from three different and complementary dimensions; impact, fusion, and diffusion perspectives. The impact of technologies refers to their influence on future technologies development and improvement, and is also clearly associated with their monetary value. The fusion of technologies denotes the extent to which a technology fuses different technologies, and represents the breadth of search underlying the technology. The fusion of technologies can be calculated based on technology or patent, thus this study measures two types of fusion index; fusion index per technology and fusion index per patent. Finally, the diffusion of technologies denotes their degree of applicability across scientific and technological fields. In the same vein, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent are considered respectively. In the second module, technologies value prediction model is implemented using artificial intelligence method. This studies use the values of five indexes (i.e., impact index, fusion index per technology, fusion index per patent, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent) at different time (e.g., t-n, t-n-1, t-n-2, ${\cdots}$) as input variables. The out variables are values of five indexes at time t, which is used for learning. The learning method adopted in this study is backpropagation algorithm. In the third module, this study recommends final promising technologies based on analytic hierarchy process. AHP provides relative importance of each index, leading to final promising index for technology. Applicability of the proposed methodology is tested by using U.S. patents in international patent class G06F (i.e., electronic digital data processing) from 2000 to 2008. The results show that mean absolute error value for prediction produced by the proposed methodology is lower than the value produced by multiple regression analysis in cases of fusion indexes. However, mean absolute error value of the proposed methodology is slightly higher than the value of multiple regression analysis. These unexpected results may be explained, in part, by small number of patents. Since this study only uses patent data in class G06F, number of sample patent data is relatively small, leading to incomplete learning to satisfy complex artificial intelligence structure. In addition, fusion index per technology and impact index are found to be important criteria to predict promising technology. This study attempts to extend the existing knowledge by proposing a new methodology for prediction technology value by integrating patent information analysis and artificial intelligence network. It helps managers who want to technology develop planning and policy maker who want to implement technology policy by providing quantitative prediction methodology. In addition, this study could help other researchers by proving a deeper understanding of the complex technological forecasting field.