• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.57 no.6
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• pp.409-419
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• 2024

Climate change is already impacting sustainable water resource management. The influence of climate change on water supply from reservoirs has been generally assessed using climate change scenarios generated based on global climate models. However, inherent uncertainties exist due to the limitations of estimating climate change by assuming IPCC carbon emission scenarios. The decision scaling approach was applied to mitigate these issues in this study focusing on four reservoir watersheds: Chungju, Yongdam, Hapcheon, and Seomjingang reservoirs. The reservoir water supply reliablity was analyzed by combining the rainfall-runoff model (IHACRES) and the reservoir operation model based on HEC-ResSim. Water supply reliability analysis was aimed at ensuring the stable operation of dams, and its results ccould be utilized to develop either structural or non-structural water supply plans. Therefore, in this study, we aimed to assess potential risks that might arise during the operation of reserviors under various climate conditions. Using observed precipitation and temperature from 1995 to 2014, 49 climate stress scenarios were developed (7 precipitation scenarios based on quantiles and 7 temperature scenarios ranging from 0℃ to 6℃ at 1℃ intervals). Our study demonstrated that despite an increase in flood season precipitation leading to an increase in reservoir discharge, it had a greater impact on sustainable water management compared to the increase in non-flood season precipitation. Furthermore, in scenarios combining rainfall and temperature, the reliability of reservoir water supply showed greater variations than the sum of individual reliability changes in rainfall and temperature scenarios. This difference was attributed to the opposing effects of decreased and increased precipitation, each causing limitations in water and energy-limited evapotranspiration. These results were expected to enhance the efficiency of reservoir operation.

• Journal of Radiation Industry
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.345-357
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• 2023

Nuclear forensics has been understood as a mendatory component in the international society for nuclear material control and non-proliferation verification. Radiochronometry of nuclear activities for nuclear forensics are decay series characteristics of nuclear materials and the Bateman equation to estimate when nuclear materials were purified and produced. Radiochronometry values have uncertainty of measurement due to the uncertainty factors in the estimation process. These uncertainties should be calculated using appropriate evaluation methods that are representative of the accuracy and reliability. The IAEA, US, and EU have been researched on radiochronometry and uncertainty of measurement, although the uncertainty calculation method using the Bateman equation is limited by the underestimation of the decay constant and the impossibility of estimating the age of more than one generation, so it is necessary to conduct uncertainty calculation research using computer simulation such as Monte Carlo method. This highlights the need for research using computational simulations, such as the Monte Carlo method, to overcome these limitations. In this study, we have analyzed mathematical models and the LHS (Latin Hypercube Sampling) methods to enhance the reliability of radiochronometry which is to develop an uncertainty algorithm for nuclear material radiochronometry using Bateman Equation. We analyzed the LHS method, which can obtain effective statistical results with a small number of samples, and applied it to algorithms that are Monte Carlo methods for uncertainty calculation by computer simulation. This was implemented through the MATLAB computational software. The uncertainty calculation model using mathematical models demonstrated characteristics based on the relationship between sensitivity coefficients and radiative equilibrium. Computational simulation random sampling showed characteristics dependent on random sampling methods, sampling iteration counts, and the probability distribution of uncertainty factors. For validation, we compared models from various international organizations, mathematical models, and the Monte Carlo method. The developed algorithm was found to perform calculations at an equivalent level of accuracy compared to overseas institutions and mathematical model-based methods. To enhance usability, future research and comparisons·validations need to incorporate more complex decay chains and non-homogeneous conditions. The results of this study can serve as foundational technology in the nuclear forensics field, providing tools for the identification of signature nuclides and aiding in the research, development, comparison, and validation of related technologies.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.45 no.3
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• pp.301-316
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• 2012

Two models, TANK and SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) were compared for simulating natural flows in the Paldang Dam upstream areas of the Han River basin in order to understand the limitations of TANK and to review the applicability and capability of SWAT. For comparison, simulation results from the previous research work were used. In the results for the calibrated watersheds (Chungju Dam and Soyanggang Dam), two models provided promising results for forecasting of daily flows with the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency of around 0.8. TANK simulated observations during some peak flood seasons better than SWAT, while it showed poor results during dry seasons, especially its simulations did not fall down under a certain value. It can be explained that TANK was calibrated for relatively larger flows than smaller ones. SWAT results showed a relatively good agreement with observed flows except some flood flows, and simulated inflows at the Paldang Dam considering discharges from upper dams coincided with observations with the model efficiency of around 0.9. This accounts for SWAT applicability with higher accuracy in predicting natural flows without dam operation or artificial water uses, and in assessing flow variations before and after dam development. Also, two model results were compared for other watersheds such as Pyeongchang-A, Dalcheon-B, Seomgang-B, Inbuk-A, Hangang-D, and Hongcheon-A to which calibrated TANK parameters were applied. The results were similar to the case of calibrated watersheds, that TANK simulated poor smaller flows except some flood flows and had same problem of keeping on over a certain value in dry seasons. This indicates that TANK application may have fatal uncertainties in estimating low flows used as an important index in water resources planning and management. Therefore, in order to reflect actually complex and complicated physical characteristics of Korean watersheds, and to manage efficiently water resources according to the land use and water use changes with urbanization or climate change in the future, it is necessary to utilize a physically based watershed model like SWAT rather than an existing conceptual lumped model like TANK.

• Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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• v.22 no.10
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• pp.1905-1919
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• 2000

The main motivation of this research is to develop an intelligent control strategy for Activated Sludge Process (ASP). ASP is a complex and nonlinear dynamic system because of the characteristic of wastewater, the change in influent flow rate, weather conditions, and etc. The mathematical model of ASP also includes uncertainties which are ignored or not considered by process engineer or controller designer. The ASP is generally controlled by a PID controller that consists of fixed proportional, integral, and derivative gain values. The PID gains are adjusted by the expert who has much experience in the ASP. The ASP model based on $Matlab^{(R)}5.3/Simulink^{(R)}3.0$ is developed in this paper. The performance of the model is tested by IWA(International Water Association) and COST(European Cooperation in the field of Scientific and Technical Research) data that include steady-state results during 14 days. The advantage of the developed model is that the user can easily modify or change the controller by the help of the graphical user interface. The ASP model as a typical nonlinear system can be used to simulate and test the proposed controller for an educational purpose. Various control methods are applied to the ASP model and the control results are compared to apply the proposed intelligent control strategy to a real ASP. Three control methods are designed and tested: conventional PID controller, fuzzy logic control approach to modify setpoints, and fuzzy-PID control method. The proposed setpoints changer based on the fuzzy logic shows a better performance and robustness under disturbances. The objective function can be defined and included in the proposed control strategy to improve the effluent water quality and to reduce the operating cost in a real ASP.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.380-420
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• 2014

We increasingly see the importance of employees acquiring enough expert capability or innovation capability to prepare for ever growing uncertainties in their operation domains. However, despite the above circumstances, there have not been an enough number of researches on how operational input components for employees' innovation outcome, innovation activities such as acquisition, exercise and promotion effort of employee's innovation capability, and their resulting innovation outcome interact with each other. This trend is believed to have been resulted because most of the current researches on innovation focus on the units of country, industry and corporate entity levels but not on an individual corporation's innovation input components, innovation outcome and innovation activities themselves. Therefore, this study intends to avoid the currently prevalent study frames and views on innovation and focus more on the strategic policies required for the enhancement of an organization's innovation capabilities by quantitatively analyzing employees' innovation outcomes and their most suggested relevant innovation activities. The research model that this study deploys offers both linear and structural model on the trio of learning, innovation capability and innovation outcome, and then suggests the 4 relevant hypotheses which are quantitatively tested and analyzed as follows: Hypothesis 1] The different levels of innovation capability produce different innovation outcomes (accepted, p-value = 0.000<0.05). Hypothesis 2] The different amounts of learning time produce different innovation capabilities (rejected, p-value = 0.199, 0.220>0.05). Hypothesis 3] The different amounts of learning time produce different innovation outcomes. (accepted, p-value = 0.000<0.05). Hypothesis 4] the innovation capability acts as a significant parameter in the relationship of the amount of learning time and innovation outcome (structural modeling test). This structural model after the t-tests on Hypotheses 1 through 4 proves that irregular on-the-job training and e-learning directly affects the learning time factor while job experience level, employment period and capability level measurement also directly impacts on the innovation capability factor. Also this hypothesis gets further supported by the fact that the patent time absolutely and directly affects the innovation capability factor rather than the learning time factor. Through the 4 hypotheses, this study proposes as measures to maximize an organization's innovation outcome. firstly, frequent irregular on-the-job training that is based on an e-learning system, secondly, efficient innovation management of employment period, job skill levels, etc through active sponsorship and energization community of practice (CoP) as a form of irregular learning, and thirdly a model of Yί=f(e, i, s, t, w)+${\varepsilon}$ as an innovation outcome function that is soundly based on a smart system of capability level measurement. The innovation outcome function is what this study considers the most appropriate and important reference model.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.35-44
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• 2015

Forests contain a huge amount of carbon (C) and climate change could affect forest C dynamics. This study was conducted to predict the C dynamics of Pinus densiflora and Quercus variabilis forests, which are the most dominant needleleaf and broadleaf forests in Korea, using the Korean Forest Soil Carbon (KFSC) model under the two climate change scenarios (2012-2100; Constant Temperature (CT) scenario and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario). To construct simulation unit, the forest land areas for those two species in the 5th National Forest Inventory (NFI) data were sorted by administrative district and stand age class. The C pools were initialized at 2012, and any disturbance was not considered during the simulation period. Although the forest C stocks of two species generally increased over time, the forest C stocks under the RCP 8.5 scenario were less than those stocks under the CT scenario. The C stocks of P. densiflora forests increased from 260.4 Tg C in 2012 to 395.3 (CT scenario) or 384.1 Tg C (RCP 8.5 scenario) in 2100. For Q. variabilis forests, the C stocks increased from 124.4 Tg C in 2012 to 219.5 (CT scenario) or 204.7 (RCP 8.5 scenario) Tg C in 2100. Compared to 5th NFI data, the initial value of C stocks in dead organic matter C pools seemed valid. Accordingly, the annual C sequestration rates of the two species over the simulation period under the RCP 8.5 scenario (65.8 and $164.2g\;C\;m^{-2}\;yr^{-1}$ for P. densiflora and Q. variabilis) were lower than those values under the CT scenario (71.1 and $193.5g\;C\;m^{-2}\;yr^{-1}$ for P. densiflora and Q. variabilis). We concluded that the C sequestration potential of P. densiflora and Q. variabilis forests could be decreased by climate change. Although there were uncertainties from parameters and model structure, this study could contribute to elucidating the C dynamics of South Korean forests in future.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.1-21
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• 2021

As the global business environment changes, uncertainties in technology development and market needs increase, and competition among companies intensifies, interests and demands for R&D activities of individual companies are increasing. In order to cope with these environmental changes, R&D companies are strengthening R&D investment as one of the means to enhance the qualitative competitiveness of R&D while paying more attention to facility investment. As a result, facilities or R&D investment elements are inevitably a burden for R&D companies to bear future uncertainties. It is true that the management strategy of increasing investment in R&D as a means of enhancing R&D capability is highly uncertain in terms of corporate performance. In this study, the structural factors that influence the R&D capabilities of companies are explored in terms of technology management capabilities, R&D capabilities, and corporate classification attributes by utilizing data mining techniques, and the characteristics these individual factors present according to the level of R&D capabilities are analyzed. This study also showed cluster analysis and experimental results based on evidence data for all domestic R&D companies, and is expected to provide important implications for corporate management strategies to enhance R&D capabilities of individual companies. For each of the three viewpoints, detailed evaluation indexes were composed of 7, 2, and 4, respectively, to quantitatively measure individual levels in the corresponding area. In the case of technology management capability and R&D capability, the sub-item evaluation indexes that are being used by current domestic technology evaluation agencies were referenced, and the final detailed evaluation index was newly constructed in consideration of whether data could be obtained quantitatively. In the case of corporate classification attributes, the most basic corporate classification profile information is considered. In particular, in order to grasp the homogeneity of the R&D competency level, a comprehensive score for each company was given using detailed evaluation indicators of technology management capability and R&D capability, and the competency level was classified into five grades and compared with the cluster analysis results. In order to give the meaning according to the comparative evaluation between the analyzed cluster and the competency level grade, the clusters with high and low trends in R&D competency level were searched for each cluster. Afterwards, characteristics according to detailed evaluation indicators were analyzed in the cluster. Through this method of conducting research, two groups with high R&D competency and one with low level of R&D competency were analyzed, and the remaining two clusters were similar with almost high incidence. As a result, in this study, individual characteristics according to detailed evaluation indexes were analyzed for two clusters with high competency level and one cluster with low competency level. The implications of the results of this study are that the faster the replacement cycle of professional managers who can effectively respond to changes in technology and market demand, the more likely they will contribute to enhancing R&D capabilities. In the case of a private company, it is necessary to increase the intensity of input of R&D capabilities by enhancing the sense of belonging of R&D personnel to the company through conversion to a corporate company, and to provide the accuracy of responsibility and authority through the organization of the team unit. Since the number of technical commercialization achievements and technology certifications are occurring both in the case of contributing to capacity improvement and in case of not, it was confirmed that there is a limit in reviewing it as an important factor for enhancing R&D capacity from the perspective of management. Lastly, the experience of utility model filing was identified as a factor that has an important influence on R&D capability, and it was confirmed the need to provide motivation to encourage utility model filings in order to enhance R&D capability. As such, the results of this study are expected to provide important implications for corporate management strategies to enhance individual companies' R&D capabilities.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.101-114
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• 2023

In the wartime, aircraft carrying out a mission to strike the enemy deep in the depth are exposed to the risk of being shoot down. As a key combat force in mordern warfare, it takes a lot of time, effot and national budget to train military flight personnel who operate high-tech weapon systems. Therefore, this study studied the path problem of predicting the route of emergency escape from enemy territory to the target point to avoid obstacles, and through this, the possibility of safe recovery of emergency escape military flight personnel was increased. based problem, transforming the problem into a TSP, VRP, and Dijkstra algorithm, and approaching it with an optimization technique. However, if this problem is approached in a network problem, it is difficult to reflect the dynamic factors and uncertainties of the battlefield environment that military flight personnel in distress will face. So, MDP suitable for modeling dynamic environments was applied and studied. In addition, GIS was used to obtain topographic information data, and in the process of designing the reward structure of MDP, topographic information was reflected in more detail so that the model could be more realistic than previous studies. In this study, value iteration algorithms and deterministic methods were used to derive a path that allows the military flight personnel in distress to move to the shortest distance while making the most of the topographical advantages. In addition, it was intended to add the reality of the model by adding actual topographic information and obstacles that the military flight personnel in distress can meet in the process of escape and escape. Through this, it was possible to predict through which route the military flight personnel would escape and escape in the actual situation. The model presented in this study can be applied to various operational situations through redesign of the reward structure. In actual situations, decision support based on scientific techniques that reflect various factors in predicting the escape route of the military flight personnel in distress and conducting combat search and rescue operations will be possible.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.129-141
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• 2023

Crop models have been used to predict yield under diverse environmental and cultivation conditions, which can be used to support decisions on the management of forage crop. Cultivar parameters are one of required inputs to crop models in order to represent genetic properties for a given forage cultivar. The objectives of this study were to compare calibration and ensemble approaches in order to minimize the uncertainty of crop yield estimates using the SIMPLE crop model. Cultivar parameters were calibrated using Log-likelihood (LL) and Generic Composite Similarity Measure (GCSM) as an objective function for Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm. In total, 20 sets of cultivar parameters were generated for each method. Two types of ensemble approach. First type of ensemble approach was the average of model outputs (E_em), using individual parameters. The second ensemble approach was model output (E_pm) of cultivar parameter obtained by averaging given 20 sets of parameters. Comparison was done for each cultivar and for each error calculation methods. 'Jowoo' and 'Yeongwoo', which are forage rice cultivars used in Korea, were subject to the parameter calibration. Yield data were obtained from experiment fields at Suwon, Jeonju, Naju and I ksan. Data for 2013, 2014 and 2016 were used for parameter calibration. For validation, yield data reported from 2016 to 2018 at Suwon was used. Initial calibration indicated that genetic coefficients obtained by LL were distributed in a narrower range than coefficients obtained by GCSM. A two-sample t-test was performed to compare between different methods of ensemble approaches and no significant difference was found between them. Uncertainty of GCSM can be neutralized by adjusting the acceptance probability. The other ensemble method (E_pm) indicates that the uncertainty can be reduced with less computation using ensemble approach.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.9 no.5 s.45
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• pp.41-52
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• 2005

Using the variable control gain scheme on the basis of fuzzy-based decision-making process, Fuzzy supervisory control (FSC) technique exhibits better control performance than linear control technique with one static control gain. This paper demonstrates the effectiveness of the FSC technique by evaluating the robust performance of the FSC technique under the presence of uncertainties in the models and the excitations. Robust performance of the FSC system is compared with that of optimally designed LQG control system for the benchmark cable-stayed bridge presented by Dyke et al. Parameter studies on the robust performance evaluation are carried out by varying the stiffness of the bridge model as well as the magnitudes of several earthquakes with different frequency contents. From the comparative study of two control systems, FSC system shows the enhanced control performance against various magnitudes of several earthquakes while maintaining lower level of power required for controlling the bridge response. Especially, FSC system clearly guarantees the improved robust performance of the control system with stable reduction effects on the seismic responses and slight increases in total power and stroke for the control system, while LQG control system exhibits poor robust performance.