• Title/Summary/Keyword: Median regression model

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Evaluation of Malignancy Risk of Ampullary Tumors Detected by Endoscopy Using 2-[18F]FDG PET/CT

  • Pei-Ju Chuang;Hsiu-Po Wang;Yu-Wen Tien;Wei-Shan Chin;Min-Shu Hsieh;Chieh-Chang Chen;Tzu-Chan Hong;Chi-Lun Ko;Yen-Wen Wu;Mei-Fang Cheng
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.243-256
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    • 2024
  • Objective: We aimed to investigate whether 2-[18F]fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (2-[18F]FDG PET/CT) can aid in evaluating the risk of malignancy in ampullary tumors detected by endoscopy. Materials and Methods: This single-center retrospective cohort study analyzed 155 patients (79 male, 76 female; mean age, 65.7 ± 12.7 years) receiving 2-[18F]FDG PET/CT for endoscopy-detected ampullary tumors 5-87 days (median, 7 days) after the diagnostic endoscopy between June 2007 and December 2020. The final diagnosis was made based on histopathological findings. The PET imaging parameters were compared with clinical data and endoscopic features. A model to predict the risk of malignancy, based on PET, endoscopy, and clinical findings, was generated and validated using multivariable logistic regression analysis and an additional bootstrapping method. The final model was compared with standard endoscopy for the diagnosis of ampullary cancer using the DeLong test. Results: The mean tumor size was 17.1 ± 7.7 mm. Sixty-four (41.3%) tumors were benign, and 91 (58.7%) were malignant. Univariable analysis found that ampullary neoplasms with a blood-pool corrected peak standardized uptake value in earlyphase scan (SUVe) ≥ 1.7 were more likely to be malignant (odds ratio [OR], 16.06; 95% confidence interval [CI], 7.13-36.18; P < 0.001). Multivariable analysis identified the presence of jaundice (adjusted OR [aOR], 4.89; 95% CI, 1.80-13.33; P = 0.002), malignant traits in endoscopy (aOR, 6.80; 95% CI, 2.41-19.20; P < 0.001), SUVe ≥ 1.7 in PET (aOR, 5.43; 95% CI, 2.00-14.72; P < 0.001), and PET-detected nodal disease (aOR, 5.03; 95% CI, 1.16-21.86; P = 0.041) as independent predictors of malignancy. The model combining these four factors predicted ampullary cancers better than endoscopic diagnosis alone (area under the curve [AUC] and 95% CI: 0.925 [0.874-0.956] vs. 0.815 [0.732-0.873], P < 0.001). The model demonstrated an AUC of 0.921 (95% CI, 0.816-0.967) in candidates for endoscopic papillectomy. Conclusion: Adding 2-[18F]FDG PET/CT to endoscopy can improve the diagnosis of ampullary cancer and may help refine therapeutic decision-making, particularly when contemplating endoscopic papillectomy.

Predicting the Progression of Chronic Renal Failure using Serum Creatinine factored for Height (소아 만성신부전의 진행 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Kyo-Sun;We, Harmon
    • Childhood Kidney Diseases
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.144-153
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    • 2000
  • Purpose : Effects to predict tile progression of chronic renal failure (CRF) in children, using mathematical models based on transformations of serum creatinine (Scr) concentration, have failed. Error may be introduced by age-related variations in creatinine production rate. Height (Ht) is a reliable reference for creatinine production in children. Thus, Scr, factored for Ht, could provide a more accurate predictive model. We examined this hypothesis. Methods : The progression of of was detected in 63 children who proceeded to end-stage renal disease. Derivatives of Scr, including 1/Scr, log Scr & Ht/Scr, were defined fir the period Scr was between 2 and 5 mg/dl. Regression equation were used to predict the time, in months, to Scr > 10 mg/dl. The prediction error (PE) was defined as the predicted time minus actual time for each Scr transformation. Result : The PE for Ht/Scr was lower than the PE for either 1/Scr or log Scr (median: -0.01, -2.0 & +10.6 mos respectively; P<0.0001). For children with congenital renal diseases, the PE for Ht/Scr was also lower than for the other two transformations (median: -1.2, -3.2 & +8.2 mos respectively; P<0.0001). However, the PEs for children with glomerular diseases was not as clearly different (median: +0.9, +0.5 & +9.9 respectively). In children < 13 yrs, PE for Ht/Scr was tile lowest, while in older children, 1/Scr provided the lowest PE but not significantly different from that for Ht/Scr. The logarithmic transformation tended to predict a slower progression of CRF than actually occurred. Conclusion : Scr, floored for Ht, appears to be a useful model to predict the rate of progression of CRF, particularly in the prepubertal child with congenital renal disease.

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Prediction of Life Expectancy for Terminally Ill Cancer Patients Based on Clinical Parameters (말기 암 환자에서 임상변수를 이용한 생존 기간 예측)

  • Yeom, Chang-Hwan;Choi, Youn-Seon;Hong, Young-Seon;Park, Yong-Gyu;Lee, Hye-Ree
    • Journal of Hospice and Palliative Care
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.111-124
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    • 2002
  • Purpose : Although the average life expectancy has increased due to advances in medicine, mortality due to cancer is on an increasing trend. Consequently, the number of terminally ill cancer patients is also on the rise. Predicting the survival period is an important issue in the treatment of terminally ill cancer patients since the choice of treatment would vary significantly by the patents, their families, and physicians according to the expected survival. Therefore, we investigated the prognostic factors for increased mortality risk in terminally ill cancer patients to help treat these patients by predicting the survival period. Methods : We investigated 31 clinical parameters in 157 terminally ill cancer patients admitted to in the Department of Family Medicine, National Health Insurance Corporation Ilsan Hospital between July 1, 2000 and August 31, 2001. We confirmed the patients' survival as of October 31, 2001 based on medical records and personal data. The survival rates and median survival times were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method and Log-rank test was used to compare the differences between the survival rates according to each clinical parameter. Cox's proportional hazard model was used to determine the most predictive subset from the prognostic factors among many clinical parameters which affect the risk of death. We predicted the mean, median, the first quartile value and third quartile value of the expected lifetimes by Weibull proportional hazard regression model. Results : Out of 157 patients, 79 were male (50.3%). The mean age was $65.1{\pm}13.0$ years in males and was $64.3{\pm}13.7$ years in females. The most prevalent cancer was gastric cancer (36 patients, 22.9%), followed by lung cancer (27, 17.2%), and cervical cancer (20, 12.7%). The survival time decreased with to the following factors; mental change, anorexia, hypotension, poor performance status, leukocytosis, neutrophilia, elevated serum creatinine level, hypoalbuminemia, hyperbilirubinemia, elevated SGPT, prolonged prothrombin time (PT), prolonged activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT), hyponatremia, and hyperkalemia. Among these factors, poor performance status, neutrophilia, prolonged PT and aPTT were significant prognostic factors of death risk in these patients according to the results of Cox's proportional hazard model. We predicted that the median life expectancy was 3.0 days when all of the above 4 factors were present, $5.7{\sim}8.2$ days when 3 of these 4 factors were present, $11.4{\sim}20.0$ days when 2 of the 4 were present, and $27.9{\sim}40.0$ when 1 of the 4 was present, and 77 days when none of these 4 factors were present. Conclusions : In terminally ill cancer patients, we found that the prognostic factors related to reduced survival time were poor performance status, neutrophilia, prolonged PT and prolonged am. The four prognostic factors enabled the prediction of life expectancy in terminally ill cancer patients.

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The Concentrations of Endocrine Disrupter (PCBs and DDE) in the Serumand Their Predictors of Exposure in Korean Women (일부 한국 성인 여성들의 혈중 내분비계 장애물질 농도 및 그 노출요인의 연구)

  • 민선영;정문호
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.127-137
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    • 2001
  • Polychlorinated biphenyls(PCBs) are halogenated aromatic compounds with the empirical formula $C_{12}$ $H_{10-n}$C $l_{n}$(n=1~10), and are a mixture of possible 209 different chlorinated congeners. PCBs were widely used as dielectric fluids for capacitors and transformers, plasticizers, lubricant inks and paint addirives. Once released into the environment, PCBs persist for years because they are so resistant to degradation. In addition to their persistence in the environment, PCBs in ecological food chains undergo biomagnification because of their high degree of lipophilicity. In 1970s, the worldwide production of PCBs was ceased and the import of PCBs was prohibited since 1983 in Korea. In spite of these actions, many PCBs seems to be still in use. The environmental load of PCBs will continue to be recycled through air, land, water, and the biosphere for decades to come. This study was conducted to measure the concentrations of PCBs in the serum samples of 112 women by GC/MSD and GC/ECD. The main results of this study were as follows. 1. PCBs were detected in all samples. The mean $\pm$SD levels of PCBs in the serum were 3.613$\pm$0.759 ppb, and median were 3.828 ppb. 2. The correlation coefficients of the concentrations of 13 PCB congeners were from minimum, 0.7913 to maximum, 0.9985, and all was significant(p=0.0001). The correlation coefficient between the concentrations of PCBs and p,p'-DDE was 0.9641(p=0.0001). 3. There was a positive association between age and PCBs' concentrations (simple linear regression ; $R^2$=0.86, $\beta$=0.08023, p<0.001). 4. There was a positive association between total lipids in the serum and PCBs' concentrations (simple linear regression ; $R^2$=0.7058, $\beta$=0.00486, p<0.001). 5. For possible predictors of PCBs and p,p' -DDE levels in the serum, age adjusted model (Y=$\beta$$_{0}$+$\beta$$_1$age+ $B_2$X) was applied. For BMI, major residential area, wether to eat caught fish by angling, where to eat caught fish by angling(by parents in the past), fish consumption, meat consumption, meat consumption, and dairy consumption, there was no association. For total conception frequency and lactation frequency and lactation period, there was negative association.ion.

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Prediction and analysis of acute fish toxicity of pesticides to the rainbow trout using 2D-QSAR (2D-QSAR방법을 이용한 농약류의 무지개 송어 급성 어독성 분석 및 예측)

  • Song, In-Sik;Cha, Ji-Young;Lee, Sung-Kwang
    • Analytical Science and Technology
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.544-555
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    • 2011
  • The acute toxicity in the rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) was analyzed and predicted using quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR). The aquatic toxicity, 96h $LC_{50}$ (median lethal concentration) of 275 organic pesticides, was obtained from EU-funded project DEMETRA. Prediction models were derived from 558 2D molecular descriptors, calculated in PreADMET. The linear (multiple linear regression) and nonlinear (support vector machine and artificial neural network) learning methods were optimized by taking into account the statistical parameters between the experimental and predicted p$LC_{50}$. After preprocessing, population based forward selection were used to select the best subsets of descriptors in the learning methods including 5-fold cross-validation procedure. The support vector machine model was used as the best model ($R^2_{CV}$=0.677, RMSECV=0.887, MSECV=0.674) and also correctly classified 87% for the training set according to EU regulation criteria. The MLR model could describe the structural characteristics of toxic chemicals and interaction with lipid membrane of fish. All the developed models were validated by 5 fold cross-validation and Y-scrambling test.

A Study on the Safety-Maximizing Design of Exclusive Bus Lanes (안전성 제고를 위한 버스전용차로 디자인 연구)

  • Yang, Chul-Su
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.21-32
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    • 2012
  • Exclusive bus lane (EBL) is typically located in the roadway median, and is accessed by weaving across the GPLs(general purpose lanes) before entering from the left lane of the GPLs. To maximize the potential for successful EBL operations, a critical design issue that requires special attention is the length of bus weaving section before entering EBL. The process of developing guidelines for the length of bus weaving section can be supported by a sensitivity analysis of performance measure (safety) with respect to the bus weaving distance. However, field data are difficult to obtain due to inherent complexity in creating performance measure (safety) samples under various interesting flows and bus weaving distance that are keys to research success. In this paper, VISSIM simulation is applied to simulate the operation of roadway weaving areas with EBL, and based on vehicle trajectory data from microscopic traffic simulation models, the Surrogate Safety Assessment Model (SSAM) computes the number of surrogate conflicts (or degree of safety) with respect to the bus weaving distance. Then, a multiple linear regression (MLR) model using safety data (number of surrogate conflicts) is developed. Finally, guidelines for bus weaving distance are established based on the developed MLR. Developed guidelines explicitly indicate that a longer bus weaving distance is required to maintain desired safety as weaving volume increases.

Prognostic Factors Influencing the Result of Postoperative Radiotherapy in Endometrial Carcinoma (자궁내막암의 수술 후 방사선치료 결과에 영향을 미치는 예후인자)

  • Ki Yong-Kan;Kwon Byung-Hyun;Kim Won-Taek;Nam Ji-Ho;Yun Man-Su;Lee Hyung-Sik;Kim Dong-Won
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.110-115
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    • 2006
  • Purpose: This study was performed to determine the prognostic factors influencing relapse pattern, overall and disease-free survival in patients treated with postoperative radiotherapy for endometrial carcinoma. Materials and Methods: The records of 54 patients with endometrial adenocarcinoma treated postoperative radiotherapy at Pusan National University Hospital between April 1992 and May 2003 were reviewed retrospectively. Median age of the patients was 55 (range $35{\sim}76$). The distribution by surgical FIGO stages were 63.0% for 0Stage I, 14.8% for Stage II, 22.2% for Stage III. All patients received postoperative external radiotherapy up to $41.4{\sim}54Gy$ (median: 50.4 Gy). Additional Intravaginal brachytherapy was app led to 20 patients (37.0% of all). Median follow-up time was 35 months ($5{\sim}115$ months). Significant factors of this study: histologic grade, Iymphovascular space invasion and myometrial invasion depth were scored (GLM score) and analyzed. Survival analysis was peformed using Kaplan-Meier method. The log-rank test was used for univariate analysis and the Cox regression model for multivariate analysis. Results: 5-year overall and disease-free survival rates were 87.7% and 871%, respectively. Prognostic factors related with overall and disease-free survival were histologic grade, Iymphovascular space invasion and myometrial invasion according to the univariate analysis. According to the multivariate analysis, Iymphovascular space invasion was associated with decreased disease-free survival. GLM score was a meaningful factor affecting overall and disease-free survival (p=0.0090, p=0.0073, respectively) and distant recurrence (p=0.0132), which was the sum of points of histologic grade, Iymphovascular space Invasion and myometrial invasion. Total failure rate was 11% with 6 patients. Relapse sites were 2 para-aortic Iymph nodes, 2 lungs, a supraclavicular Iymph node and a vagina. Conclusion: The prognosos in patients with endometrial carcinoma treated by postoperative radiotherapy was closely related with surgical histopathology. If further explorations confirm the system of prognostic factors in endometrial carcinoma, it will help us to predict the progression pattern and to manage.

Usability of a smartphone food picture app for assisting 24-hour dietary recall: a pilot study

  • Hongu, Nobuko;Pope, Benjamin T.;Bilgic, Pelin;Orr, Barron J.;Suzuki, Asuka;Kim, Angela Sarah;Merchant, Nirav C.;Roe, Denise J.
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.207-212
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    • 2015
  • BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: The Recaller app was developed to help individuals record their food intakes. This pilot study evaluated the usability of this new food picture application (app), which operates on a smartphone with an embedded camera and Internet capability. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Adults aged 19 to 28 years (23 males and 22 females) were assigned to use the Recaller app on six designated, nonconsecutive days in order to capture an image of each meal and snack before and after eating. The images were automatically time-stamped and uploaded by the app to the Recaller website. A trained nutritionist administered a 24-hour dietary recall interview 1 day after food images were taken. Participants' opinions of the Recaller app and its usability were determined by a follow-up survey. As an evaluation indicator of usability, the number of images taken was analyzed and multivariate Poisson regression used to model the factors determining the number of images sent. RESULTS: A total of 3,315 food images were uploaded throughout the study period. The median number of images taken per day was nine for males and 13 for females. The survey showed that the Recaller app was easy to use, and 50% of the participants would consider using the app daily. Predictors of a higher number of images were as follows: greater interval (hours) between the first and last food images sent, weekend, and female. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this pilot study provide valuable information for understanding the usability of the Recaller smartphone food picture app as well as other similarly designed apps. This study provides a model for assisting nutrition educators in their collection of food intake information by using tools available on smartphones. This innovative approach has the potential to improve recall of foods eaten and monitoring of dietary intake in nutritional studies.

Survival Time and Molecular Subtypes of Breast Cancer after Radiotherapy in Thailand

  • Kongsiang, Apichat;Tangvoraphonkchai, Vorachai;Jirapornkul, Chananya;Promthet, Supannee;Kamsa-ard, Siriporn;Suwanrungruang, Krittika
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.23
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    • pp.10505-10508
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    • 2015
  • Background: Breast cancer is an important cause of death among women. One way of classifying different forms of breast cancer is by molecular features, usually in terms of the four subtypes: luminal A, luminal B, HER2-enriched, and triple negative. Objectives: This study aimed to investigate the association between molecular subtypes and survival among breast cancer patients treated with radiotherapy. Materials and Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted. The subjects were 272 breast cancer patients who had received treatment in the radiotherapy unit at Srinagarind Hospital, Thailand, between 1 January, 1999, and 31 May, 2009. The end of the study was 1 June, 2014. Overall survival was defined as the time elapsing between initial registration at the radiotherapy unit and death or the end of the study. Survival curves were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method, and a multivariate analysis was performed using Cox's proportional hazard regression model. Results: The patient mean age was $47.5{\pm}10.4$ at the time of diagnosis. Of the 272 patients, 146 (53.7%) were classified as luminal A, 12 (4.4%) as luminal B, 30 (11.0%) as HER2-enriched, and 84 (30.9%) as triple negative. The overall survival rates at 1, 3 and 5 years were 87.1%, 68.4% and 59.2%, respectively. According to molecular subtypes, HER2-enriched patients had the lowest 5-year survival rate (30.0 %, 95%CI: 15.02-46.55). The median follow-up time was 8.37 years. In the Cox model analysis a higher risk of death was found for patients with HER2-enriched ($HR_{adj}=3.34$, 95%CI:1.96-5.67), triple negative ($HR_{adj}=2.17$, 95%CI: 1.44-3.27), and stage IIlB ($HR_{adj}=2.20$, 95%CI: 1.16-4.17) cancers. Conclusions: The worst survival rates were among patients classified as HER2-enriched, triple negative and at stage IIIB. Early detection and an advanced treatment modality are needed to help these patients.

Efficacy of Nab-Paclitaxel Plus Gemcitabine and Prognostic Value of Peripheral Neuropathy in Patients with Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer

  • You, Min Su;Ryu, Ji Kon;Choi, Young Hoon;Choi, Jin Ho;Huh, Gunn;Paik, Woo Hyun;Lee, Sang Hyub;Kim, Yong-Tae
    • Gut and Liver
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    • v.12 no.6
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    • pp.728-735
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    • 2018
  • Background/Aims: The combination of nab-paclitaxel and gemcitabine (nab-P/Gem) is widely used for treating metastatic pancreatic cancer (MPC). We aimed to evaluate the therapeutic outcomes and prognostic role of treatment-related peripheral neuropathy in patients with MPC treated with nab-P/Gem in clinical practice. Methods: MPC patients treated with nab-P/Gem as the first-line chemotherapy were included. All 88 Korean patients underwent at least two cycles of nab-P/Gem combination chemotherapy (125 and $1,000mg/m^2$, respectively). Treatment-related adverse events were monitored through periodic follow-ups. Overall survival and progression-free survival were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method, and the Cox proportional hazards regression linear model was applied to assess prognostic factors. To evaluate the prognostic value of treatment-related peripheral neuropathy, the landmark point analysis was used. Results: Patients underwent a mean of $6.7{\pm}4.2$ cycles during $6.3{\pm}4.4$ months. The median overall survival and progression-free survival rates were 14.2 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 11.8 to 20.3 months) and 8.4 months (95% CI, 7.1 to 13.2 months), respectively. The disease control rate was 84.1%; a partial response and stable disease were achieved in 30 (34.1%) and 44 (50.0%) patients, respectively. Treatment-related peripheral neuropathy developed in 52 patients (59.1%), and 13 (14.8%) and 16 (18.2%) patients experienced grades 2 and 3 neuropathy, respectively. In the landmark model, at 6 months, treatment-related peripheral neuropathy did not have a significant correlation with survival (p=0.089). Conclusions: Nab-P/Gem is a reasonable choice for treating MPC, as it shows a considerable disease control rate while the treatment-related peripheral neuropathy was tolerable. The prognostic role of treatment-related neuropathy was limited.