• Title/Summary/Keyword: Maximum likelihood model

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Estimation of Genetic Parameters for Economic Traits in Yorkshire (요크셔종에 대한 경제형질의 유전모수 추정)

  • Song, K.L.;Kim, B.W.;Kim, S.D.;Choi, C.S.;Kim, M.J.;Lee, J.G.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.44 no.5
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    • pp.499-506
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    • 2002
  • This study was conducted to estimate the heritabilities and genetic and phenotypic correlations among average daily gain, age at 90kg and backfat thickness in Yorkshire pigs. The data were obtained from 2,111 heads of Yorkshire tested at National Livestock Research Institute from May, 1994 to April, 2000. Genetic parameters were estimated with a multiple trait animal model by using DF-REML (Deri- vative-Free REstricted Maximum Likelihood). The results obtained are summarized as follows ; The means of traits studied were 0.871${\pm}$0.124 kg for average daily gain, 145.397${\pm}$11.718 days for age at 90kg and 1.476${\pm}$0.241 cm for backfat thickness. The estimated heritabilities were 0.55 for average daily gain, 0.56 for age at 90kg and 0.55 for backfat thickness. The genetic correlation of average daily gain with age at 90kg and backfat thickness were -0.82, 0.10, respectively. The genetic correlation of age at 90kg with backfat thickness was -0.25. The phenotypic correlations of average daily gain(ADG) with age at 90kg and backfat thickness and age at 90kg with backfat thickness were -0.77, 0.02 and -0.05 respectively. Though phenotypic correlation of ADG and age at 90kg was low, breeding project should be carefully considered by high genetic correlation. High heritabilities on all economic traits were obtained. Therefore, it is considered that suitable selection and management is needed successful improvement.

The Relationship Between Son Preference and Fertility (남아 선호와 출산력간의 관계)

  • 이성용
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.31-57
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    • 2003
  • This study is intended to examine (l)whether the value of son-for example, old age security and succession of family lineage- causing son preference in the traditional society can be explained at the individual level, (2)whether women without son in the son preference country continue her childbearing until having at least one son or give up the desire of having a son at a certain level. To accomplish these purposes, the 1974 Korean National Fertility Survey data are analyzed by the quadratic hazard models controlling unobserved heterogeneity. Unlike ordinary regression model, even omitted variables that affect hazard rates and are uncorrelated with the included independent variables can distort the parameter estimates in the hazard model. Therefore the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator(NPMLE) of a mixing distribution developed by Heckman and Singer is used to control unobserved heterogeneity. Based on the statistical result in this study, the value of son causing son preference is determined at the societal level, not at the individual level. And Korean women without a son did not continue endlessly childbearing during child bearing ages until having a son. In general, they gave up the desire having a son when she had born six daughters continuously. Thus, 30-40 years ago, the number of daughters that women without a son giving up the desire of son was six, which is about the level of total fertility rate during 1960s. In these days, we can often see many women who have only two or three daughters and do not any son. This means that the level of giving up the desire of son, which is one factor representing the strength of son preference, becomes lower. If the strength of son preference did not become much weaker, then the fertility rates in Korea could not reach the below replacement level.

Genetic Correlation of Carcass and Meat Production Traits with Hormones and Metabolic Components in Hawoo (가축의 혈청 호르몬 및 대사물질 농도와 도체 및 산육형질에 대한 유전상관에 관한 연구)

  • Jeon G. J.;Juong H. Y.;Cho K. H.;Kim M. J.;Kim I. C.;Kim J. B.
    • Journal of Embryo Transfer
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.255-269
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    • 2005
  • This study was aimed to investigate genetic relationships, variables, and correlations between economic traits and metabolic materials in serum components according to bleeding periods and breeding locations for the castrated and not castrated Hanwoo cattle at National Livestock Research Institute. Analysis of variance for serum hormones and metabolic materials showed significant differences by breeding locations except for testosterone and globulin. Statistical differences for serum components were detected by birth year except for cortisol, total protein, globulin and creatinine, and by castration except for total protein and BUN. All the serum components were tended to have sire effects except for testosterone resulting in some degree of additive gene actions. Breeding locations showed statistical significances for carcass weight and back fat thickness, but not in carcass rate, KPH, live weight and transportation weight loss. Effects of breeding locations and castration were significant for all weight measurement periods except for 9 month and 6 month, respectively. A significant sire effect was observed in all weight measurements. Least squared means for concentration of serum components by breeding year, season and castration were not significant. High concentration of cortisol, creatinine and triglyceride and low concentration of IGF-1 and glucose were detected in castrated cattle. Concentration of testosterone with castrated cattle was $5.2\%$ corresponding to non castrated cattle. Estimation of heritabilities of serum components using a sire model with restricted maximum likelihood were ranged 0.07 to 0.58. High heritabilities were estimated for total protein, albumin, globulin, cortisol, creatinine and BUN were 0.53, 0.54, 0.42, 0.45, 0.58 and 0.54, respectively. Low heritabilities were estimated fur calcium, testosterone and IGF-1 for 0.07, 0.15 and 0.12, respectively. Heritabilities for carcass weight, back fat thickness, meat yield index, KPH, and IMF were estimated as 0.39, 0.45, 0.30 0.13, and 0.93. Heritabilities of weights on 18, 12, 9, 6, and 24 month were estimated as 0.78, 0.76, 0.62, 0.58 and 0.58. Estimated heritabilities for average daily gain on 6${\~}$2, 12${\~}$18, and 18${\~}$24 month were 0.80, 0.75 and 0.19, respectively.

Methods for Genetic Parameter Estimations of Carcass Weight, Longissimus Muscle Area and Marbling Score in Korean Cattle (한우의 도체중, 배장근단면적 및 근내지방도의 유전모수 추정방법)

  • Lee, D.H.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.46 no.4
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    • pp.509-516
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    • 2004
  • This study is to investigate the amount of biased estimates for heritability and genetic correlation according to data structure on marbling scores in Korean cattle. Breeding population with 5 generations were simulated by way of selection for carcass weight, Longissimus muscle area and latent values of marbling scores and random mating. Latent variables of marbling scores were categorized into five by the thresholds of 0, I, 2, and 3 SD(DSI) or seven by the thresholds of -2, -1, 0,1I, 2, and 3 SD(DS2). Variance components and genetic pararneters(Heritabilities and Genetic correlations) were estimated by restricted maximum likelihood on multivariate linear mixed animal models and by Gibbs sampling algorithms on multivariate threshold mixed animal models in DS1 and DS2. Simulation was performed for 10 replicates and averages and empirical standard deviation were calculated. Using REML, heritabilitis of marbling score were under-estimated as 0.315 and 0.462 on DS1 and DS2, respectively, with comparison of the pararneter(0.500). Otherwise, using Gibbs sampling in the multivariate threshold animal models, these estimates did not significantly differ to the parameter. Residual correlations of marbling score to other traits were reduced with comparing the parameters when using REML algorithm with assuming linear and normal distribution. This would be due to loss of information and therefore, reduced variation on marbling score. As concluding, genetic variation of marbling would be well defined if liability concepts were adopted on marbling score and implemented threshold mixed model on genetic parameter estimation in Korean cattle.

Consumer Responses to Retailer's Location-based Mobile Shopping Service : Focusing on PAD Emotional State Model and Information Relevance (유통업체의 위치기반 모바일 쇼핑서비스 제공에 대한 소비자 반응 : PAD 감정모델과 정보의 상황관련성을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Hyun-Hwa;Moon, Hee-Kang
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.63-92
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    • 2012
  • This study investigated consumer intention to use a location-based mobile shopping service (LBMSS) that integrates cognitive and affective responses. Information relevancy was integrated into pleasure-arousal-dominance (PAD) emotional state model in the present study as a conceptual framework. The results of an online survey of 335 mobile phone users in the U.S. indicated the positive effects of arousal and information relevancy on pleasure. In addition, there was a significant relationship between pleasure and intention to use a LBMSS. However, the relationship between dominance and pleasure was not statistically significant. The results of the present study provides insight to retailers and marketers as to what factors they need to consider to implement location-based mobile shopping services to improve their business performance. Extended Abstract : Location aware technology has expanded the marketer's reach by reducing space and time between a consumer's receipt of advertising and purchase, offering real-time information and coupons to consumers in purchasing situations (Dickenger and Kleijnen, 2008; Malhotra and Malhotra, 2009). LBMSS increases the relevancy of SMS marketing by linking advertisements to a user's location (Bamba and Barnes, 2007; Malhotra and Malhotra, 2009). This study investigated consumer intention to use a location-based mobile shopping service (LBMSS) that integrates cognitive and affective response. The purpose of the study was to examine the relationship among information relevancy and affective variables and their effects on intention to use LBMSS. Thus, information relevancy was integrated into pleasure-arousal-dominance (PAD) model and generated the following hypotheses. Hypothesis 1. There will be a positive influence of arousal concerning LBMSS on pleasure in regard to LBMSS. Hypothesis 2. There will be a positive influence of dominance in LBMSS on pleasure in regard to LBMSS. Hypothesis 3. There will be a positive influence of information relevancy on pleasure in regard to LBMSS. Hypothesis 4. There will be a positive influence of pleasure about LBMSS on intention to use LBMSS. E-mail invitations were sent out to a randomly selected sample of three thousand consumers who are older than 18 years old and mobile phone owners, acquired from an independent marketing research company. An online survey technique was employed utilizing Dillman's (2000) online survey method and follow-ups. A total of 335 valid responses were used for the data analysis in the present study. Before the respondents answer any of the questions, they were told to read a document describing LBMSS. The document included definitions and examples of LBMSS provided by various service providers. After that, they were exposed to a scenario describing the participant as taking a saturday shopping trip to a mall and then receiving a short message from the mall. The short message included new product information and coupons for same day use at participating stores. They then completed a questionnaire containing various questions. To assess arousal, dominance, and pleasure, we adapted and modified scales used in the previous studies in the context of location-based mobile shopping service, each of the five items from Mehrabian and Russell (1974). A total of 15 items were measured on a seven-point bipolar scale. To measure information relevancy, four items were borrowed from Mason et al. (1995). Intention to use LBMSS was captured using two items developed by Blackwell, and Miniard (1995) and one items developed by the authors. Data analyses were conducted using SPSS 19.0 and LISREL 8.72. A total of usable 335 data were obtained after deleting the incomplete responses, which results in a response rate of 11.20%. A little over half of the respondents were male (53.9%) and approximately 60% of respondents were married (57.4%). The mean age of the sample was 29.44 years with a range from 19 to 60 years. In terms of the ethnicity there were European Americans (54.5%), Hispanic American (5.3%), African-American (3.6%), and Asian American (2.9%), respectively. The respondents were highly educated; close to 62.5% of participants in the study reported holding a college degree or its equivalent and 14.5% of the participants had graduate degree. The sample represents all income categories: less than $24,999 (10.8%), $25,000-$49,999 (28.34%), $50,000-$74,999 (13.8%), and $75,000 or more (10.23%). The respondents of the study indicated that they were employed in many occupations. Responses came from all 42 states in the U.S. To identify the dimensions of research constructs, Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) using a varimax rotation was conducted. As indicated in table 1, these dimensions: arousal, dominance, relevancy, pleasure, and intention to use, suggested by the EFA, explained 82.29% of the total variance with factor loadings ranged from .74 to .89. As a next step, CFA was conducted to validate the dimensions that were identified from the exploratory factor analysis and to further refine the scale. Table 1 exhibits the results of measurement model analysis and revealed a chi-square of 202.13 with degree-of-freedom of 89 (p =.002), GFI of .93, AGFI = .89, CFI of .99, NFI of .98, which indicates of the evidence of a good model fit to the data (Bagozzi and Yi, 1998; Hair et al., 1998). As table 1 shows, reliability was estimated with Cronbach's alpha and composite reliability (CR) for all multi-item scales. All the values met evidence of satisfactory reliability in multi-item measure for alpha (>.91) and CR (>.80). In addition, we tested the convergent validity of the measure using average variance extracted (AVE) by following recommendations from Fornell and Larcker (1981). The AVE values for the model constructs ranged from .74 through .85, which are higher than the threshold suggested by Fornell and Larcker (1981). To examine discriminant validity of the measure, we again followed the recommendations from Fornell and Larcker (1981). The shared variances between constructs were smaller than the AVE of the research constructs and confirm discriminant validity of the measure. The causal model testing was conducted using LISREL 8.72 with a maximum-likelihood estimation method. Table 2 shows the results of the hypotheses testing. The results for the conceptual model revealed good overall fit for the proposed model. Chi-square was 342.00 (df = 92, p =.000), NFI was .97, NNFI was .97, GFI was .89, AGFI was .83, and RMSEA was .08. All paths in the proposed model received significant statistical support except H2. The paths from arousal to pleasure (H1: ${\ss}$=.70; t = 11.44), from information relevancy to intention to use (H3 ${\ss}$ =.12; t = 2.36), from information relevancy to pleasure (H4 ${\ss}$ =.15; t = 2.86), and pleasure to intention to use (H5: ${\ss}$=.54; t = 9.05) were significant. However, the path from dominance to pleasure was not supported. This study investigated consumer intention to use a location-based mobile shopping service (LBMSS) that integrates cognitive and affective responses. Information relevancy was integrated into pleasure-arousal-dominance (PAD) emotional state model as a conceptual framework. The results of the present study support previous studies indicating that emotional responses as well as cognitive responses have a strong impact on accepting new technology. The findings of this study suggest potential marketing strategies to mobile service developers and retailers who are considering the implementation of LBMSS. It would be rewarding to develop location-based mobile services that integrate information relevancy and which cause positive emotional responses.

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Estimation of GARCH Models and Performance Analysis of Volatility Trading System using Support Vector Regression (Support Vector Regression을 이용한 GARCH 모형의 추정과 투자전략의 성과분석)

  • Kim, Sun Woong;Choi, Heung Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.107-122
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    • 2017
  • Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.

Factorial Validity of the Korean Version of the Illness Intrusive Rating Scale among Psychiatric Outpatients Mainly Diagnosed with Anxiety or Depressive Disorders (불안 및 우울장애를 주요 진단으로 하는 정신건강의학과 외래환자 대상 한국판 질병침습도 평가척도의 요인 타당도 연구)

  • Cho, Yubin;Kim, Daeho;Kim, Eunkyung;Jo, Hwa Yeon;Yun, Mirim;Lee, Hoseon
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.77-84
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    • 2019
  • Objectives : The Illness Intrusiveness Rating Scale (IIRS) is a well-validated self-report instrument for assessing negative impact of chronic illness and/or adverse effects of its treatment on everyday life domains. Although extensive literature probed its psychometric properties in medical illness, little attention was paid for its validity for psychiatric population. This study aimed to test factorial structure of the Korean Version of the IIRS (IIRS-K) in a consecutive sample of psychiatric outpatients. Methods : Data set of 307 first-visit patients of psychiatric clinic at Guri Hanyang univ. Hospital were used. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis, internal consistency were tested in IIRS-K. We also checked Spearman's correlation analysis between IIRS-K, Zung's self-report anxiety scale and Zung's self-report depression scale. Results : 76.9% of the patients were with anxiety disorder and depressive disorder. The principal component factor analysis of the IIRS-K extracted three-factor structure accounted for 63.2% of total variance that was contextually similar to the original English version. This three-factor solution showed the best fit when tested confirmatory factor analysis compared to the original IIRS, two-factor model of IIRS-K suggested from medical outpatients, and one-factor solution. The IIRS-K also showed good internal consistency (Cronbach's α=0.90) and good convergent validity with anxiety and depression scales. Conclusions : The IIRS-K showed the three-factor structure that was similar but not identical to original version. Overall, this study proved factorial validity of the IIRS-K and it can be used for Korean clinical population.

A Biomechanical Study on a New Surgical Procedure for the Treatment of Intertrochanteric Fractures in relation to Osteoporosis of Varying Degrees (대퇴골 전자간 골절의 새로운 수술기법에 관한 생체역학적 분석)

  • 김봉주;이성재;권순용;탁계래;이권용
    • Journal of Biomedical Engineering Research
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.401-410
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    • 2003
  • This study investigates the biomechanical efficacies of various cement augmentation techniques with or without pressurization for varying degrees of osteoporotic femur. For this study, a biomechanical analysis using a finite element method (FEM) was undertaken to evaluate surgical procedures, Simulated models include the non-cemented(i.e., hip screw only, Type I), the cement-augmented(Type II), and the cemented augmented with pressurization(Type III) models. To simulate the fracture plane and other interfacial regions, 3-D contact elements were used with appropriate friction coefficients. Material properties of the cancellous bone were varied to accommodate varying degrees of osteoporosis(Singh indices, II∼V). For each model. the following items were analyzed to investigate the effect surgical procedures in relation to osteoporosis of varying degrees : (a) von Mises stress distribution within the femoral head in terms of volumetric percentages. (b) Peak von Mises stress(PVMS) within the femoral head and the surgical constructs. (c) Maximum von Mises strain(MVMS) within the femoral head, (d) micromotions at the fracture plane and at the interfacial region between surgical construct and surrounding bone. Type III showed the lowest PVMS and MVMS at the cancellous bone near the bone-construct interface regardless of bone densities. an indication of its least likelihood of construct loosening due to failure of the host bone. Particularly, its efficacy was more prominent when the bone density level was low. Micromotions at the interfacial surgical construct was lowest in Type III. followed by Type I and Type II. They were about 15-20% of other types. which suggested that pressurization was most effective in limiting the interfacial motion. Our results demonstrated the cement augmentation with hip screw could be more effective when used with pressurization technique for the treatment of intertrochanteric fractures. For patients with low bone density. its effectiveness can be more pronounced in limiting construct loosening and promoting bone union.