• 수산해양기술연구
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• 제56권4호
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• pp.347-360
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• 2020

In this study, the Bayesian state-space model was used for the stock assessment of the Blackfin flounder. In addition, effective measures for the resource management were presentedwith the analysis on the effectiveness of fisheries management plans. According to the result of the analysis using the Bayesian state-space model, the main biometric value of Blackfin flounder was analyzed as 1,985 tons for maximum sustainable yield (MSY), 23,930 tons for carrying capacity (K), 0.000007765 for catchability coefficient (q) and 0.31 for intrinsic growth (r). Also the evaluation on the biological effect of TAC was done. The result showed that the Blackfin flounder biomass will be kept at 14,637 tons 20 years later given the present TAC volume of 1,761 tons. If the Blackfin flounder TAC volume is set to 1,600 tons, the amount of biomass will increase to 16,252 tons in the future. Lastly, the biological effectiveness of the policy to reduce fishing effort was assessed. The result showed that the Blackfin flounder biomass will be maintained at 13,776 tons if the current fishing efforts (currently hp) level is set and maintained. If the fishing effort is reduced by 20%, it will increase to 17,091 tons in the future. The analysis on the economic effect of TAC showed that NPV will be the lowest at 1,486,410 won in 2038, 20 years after the establishment of 2,500 tons of TAC volume. If the TAC volume is set at 2,000 tons, NPV was estimated to be the highest at 2,206,522,000 won. In addition, the analysis on the economic effect of the policy to reduce the amount of fishing effort found that NPV will be 2,235,592,000 won in 2038, 20 years after maintaining the current level of fishing effort. If the fishing effort is increased by 10%, NPV will be the highest at 2,257,575 won even thoughthe amount of biomass will be reduced.

• 생태와환경
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• 제44권2호
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• pp.172-177
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• 2011

본 연구는 최적화된 자원량을 기반으로 최대 생산성을 얻을 수 있는 잠재생산량 추정을 통한 어족자원(꺽지)의 효율적 관리방안을 모색하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 섬진강 중 상류 수계에서 2008년 8월부터 2009년 4월까지 계절별로 총 4회 조사를 실시하였다. 자원량 추정은 소해면 적법(Swept Area method)을 이용하였으며, 잠재생산량은 생물학적 허용어획량(Allowable Biological Catch, ABC)에 기초한 어족자원 잠재력 추정시스템을 수정 보완하여 사용하였다. 또한, 꺽지 자원의 효율적인 관리 방안을 검토하기 위해 가입당생산량모델(Beverton and Holt)을 사용하였다. 연구결과, 어획개시연령($t_c$)은 1.464 age로 나타났으며, 이를 체장으로 환산한 결과 7.8 cm(BL)로 확인되었다. 현재 어획강도를 나타내는 순간어획사망계수(F)는 0.061 $year^{-1}$이었으며, 이를 기준으로 한가입당 생산량(Y/R)은 4.124 g로 추정되었다. 어획개시연령($t_c$)과 순간어획사망계수(F)를 기준으로 한 적정어획사망계수($F_{ABC}$)는 0.401 $year^{-1}$로 추정되었는데 이는 현재 꺽지 자원에 대한 어획강도가 매우 낮은 상태임을 시사한다. 꺽지의 연간 자원량은 3,048 kg으로 나타났으며, 현재 어획개시연령과 적정어획사망계수를($F_{ABC}$)를 바탕으로 한 잠재생산량은 861 kg으로 추정되었다. 가입당 생산량 모델을 사용하여 어획개시연령을 3 age로 어획사망계수는 0.643 $year^{-1}$로 가정할 경우, 가입당 생산량은 현재의 4.12 g에서 13.84 g로 약 3.4배 증가될 것으로 예상되었다.

• 수산해양기술연구
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• 제55권2호
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• pp.95-104
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• 2019

This study is aimed to take a stock assessment of blackthroat seaperch Doederleinia seaperch regarding the fishing effort of large-powered Danish Seine Fishery and Southwest Sea Danish Seine Fishery. For the assessment, the state-space model was implemented and the standardized catch per unit effort (CPUE) of large powered Danish Seine Fishery and Southwest Sea Danish Seine Fishery which is necessary for the model was estimated with generalized linear model (GLM). The model was adequate for stock assessment because its r-square value was 0.99 and root mean square error (RMSE) value was 0.003. According to the model with 95% confidence interval, maximum sustainable yield (MSY) of Blackthroat seaperch is from 2,634 to 6,765 ton and carrying capacity (K) is between 33,180 and 62,820. Also, the catchability coefficient (q) is between 2.14E-06 and 3.95E-06 and intrinsic growth rate (r) is between 0.31 and 0.72.

• 한국수산과학회지
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• 제53권6호
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• pp.925-933
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• 2020

This study is aimed to compare stock assessment models which are effective in assessing red snow crab Chinonoecetes japonicus resources and to select and apply an effective stock assessment model in the future. In order to select an effective stock assessment model, a process-error model, observation-error model, and a Bayesian state-space model were estimated. Analytical results show that the least error is observed between the estimated CPUE (catch per unit effort) and the observed CPUE when using the Bayesian state-space model. For the Bayesian state-space model, the 95% credible interval(CI) ranges for the maximum sustainable yield (MSY), carrying capacity (K), catchability coefficient (q), and intrinsic growth (r) are estimated to be 10,420-47,200 tons, 185,200-444,800 tons, 3.81E-06-9.02E-06, and 0.14-0.66, respectively. The results show that the Bayesian state-space model was most reliable among models.