• Title/Summary/Keyword: Markov-chain

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Gas kinematics and star formation in NGC 6822

  • Park, Hye-Jin;Oh, Se-Heon;Wang, Jing;Zheng, Yun;Zhang, Hong-Xin;de Blok, W.J.G.
    • The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.45 no.1
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    • pp.61.4-62
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    • 2020
  • We present H I gas kinematics and star formation activities of NGC 6822, a dwarf galaxy located in the Local Volume at a distance of ~490 kpc. We perform profile decomposition of the line-of-sight velocity profiles of the high-resolution (~42.4" × 12") spatial; ~1.6 km/s spectral) H I data cube taken with the Australia Telescope Compact Array (ATCA). For this, we use a new tool, the so-called BAYGAUD (BAYesian GAUssian Decompositor) which is based on Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques, allowing us to decompose a line-of-sight velocity profile into an optimal number of Gaussian components in a quantitative manner. We classify the decomposed H I gas components of NGC 6822 into kinematically cold, warm or hot ones with respect to their velocity dispersion: 1) cold: < 4 km/s, 2) warm: 4 ~ 8 km/s, 3) hot: > 8 km/s. We then derive the Toomre-Q parameters of NGC 6822 using the kinematically decomposed H I gas maps. We also correlate their gas surface densities with the surface star formation rates derived using both GALEX far-ultraviolet and WISE 22 micron data to examine the impact of gas turbulence caused by stellar feedback on the Kennicutt-Schmidt (K-S) law. The kinematically cold component is likely to better follow the linear extension of the Kennicutt-Schmidt (K-S) law for molecular hydrogen (H2) at the low gas surface density regime where H I is not saturated.

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Realization of water distribution system digital twin model using parameter calibration model (상수도관망 디지털트윈 구현을 위한 해석 프로그램 매개변수 검보정 모형 개발)

  • Lee, Jaeyeon;Park, Jaehong;Lee, Seungyub
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.182-182
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    • 2022
  • 4차산업 기술이 상수도 관망 분야에도 활발히 도입되며 스마트워터 구축에 기술적인 기반이 마련되고 있다. 이중 디지털트윈의 경우 컴퓨터에 현실 속 사물의 쌍둥이를 만들고, 현실에서 발생할 수 있는 상황을 컴퓨터로 시뮬레이션함으로써 결과를 미리 예측하는 기술로 정의된다. 즉, 디지털트윈의 핵심기술은 시각화와 시뮬레이션 모형의 연계로 실시간 상황 표출뿐만 아니라 시뮬레이션 모형 입력값의 미래 변화를 추정하여 해당 사물의 상태를 예측하는 것이라고 할 수 있다. 상수도 관망의 경우도 디지털트윈 모형 구축 시 정교한 시뮬레이션 모형과 연계를 통해 관측 데이터의 표출과 함께 미관측 지점의 데이터를 추정 및 표출하는 것이 중요하다. 본 연구에서는 디지털트윈 모형 구축에 가장 필수적이라고 할 수 있는 상수도 관망의 해석 프로그램 매개변수 검보정 모형을 소개한다. 대표적인 상수도 관망해석 프로그램인 EPANET2.2의경우 입력값으로 주로 수요량과 관로의 조도계수를 요구하며, 본 연구에서는 수요량은 알고 있는 것으로 가정하고 관로의 조도계수만 Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)를 사용하여 검보정한다. 해당 모형은 (1) 실시간 조도계수 추정이 가능하면, (2) 동시에 누수 탐지가 가능하고, (3) 관로의 기능적 노후를 정의하여 향후 디지털트윈 모형 구현 시 관로 노후를 표출할 수 있는 기반을 구축한다. 우선 실시간 조도계수 추정은 데이터베이스와 연동하여 진행하며, MCMC 모형을 활용한 관로 별 조도계수의 분포에 따라 정상범위 내 변동이 발생하는지 여부를 판단한다. 이때 정상범위를 벗어난 변동이 발생하는 경우 잠재적 누수가 존재하는 것으로 가정하며, 콜모고로프-스미르노프(KS) 테스트를 통해 이를 판단한다. 기능적 노후는 관로의 통수능과 연관이 있으며, 추정한 조도계수에 따른 관로의 통수능을 산정하여 결과를 표출한다. 본 연구에서 제안한 모형은 향후 상수도 관망 디지털트윈 구현에 핵심 요소기술로 활용할 수 있을 것으로 기대한다.

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A Search for Exoplanets around Northern Circumpolar Stars. IX. A Multi-Period Analysis of the M Giant HD 135438

  • Byeong-Cheol Lee;Jae-Rim Koo;Yeon-Ho Choi;Tae-Yang Bang;Beomdu Lim;Myeong-Gu Park;Gwanghui Jeong
    • Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.56 no.2
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    • pp.277-286
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    • 2023
  • It is difficult to distinguish the pure signal produced by an orbiting planetary companion around giant stars from other possible sources, such as stellar spots, pulsations, or certain activities. Since 2003, we have obtained radial (RV) data from evolved stars using the high-resolution, fiber-fed Bohyunsan Observatory Echelle Spectrograph (BOES) at the Bohyunsan Optical Astronomy Observatory (BOAO). Here, we report the results of RV variations in the binary star HD 135438. We found two significant periods: 494.98 d with eccentricity of 0.23 and 8494.1 d with eccentricity of 0.83. Considering orbital stability, it is impossible to have two companions in such close orbits with high eccentricity. To determine the nature of the changes in the RV variability, we analyzed indicators of stellar spot and stellar chromospheric activity to find that there are no signals related to the significant period of 494.98 d. However, we calculated the upper limits of rotation period of the rotational velocity and found this to be 478-536 d. One possible interpretation is that this may be closely related to the rotational modulation of an orbital inclination at 67-90 degrees. The other signal corresponding to the period of 8494.1 d is probably associated with a stellar companion orbiting the giant star. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation considering a single companion indicates that HD 135438 system hosts a stellar companion with 0.57+0.017 -0.017 M with an orbital period of 8498 d.

Methodology to Verify the Unpredictability of True Random Number Generators (실난수 발생기 통계적 예측 불가능성 확인 방법)

  • Moon-Seok Kim;Seung-Bae Jeon
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.123-132
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    • 2024
  • In the era of the Internet of Things, 7 billion diverse devices have been interconnected worldwide. Ensuring information security across these varied devices is crucial in this hyper-connected age. To achieve essential security functions such as confidentiality, integrity, and authentication, it is imperative to implement true random number generators (TRNGs). Therefore, this study proposes a method to rapidly characterize the randomness of TRNGs. While there are international standards for formally characterizing the randomness of TRNGs, adhering to these standards often requires significant time and resources. This study aims to help TRNG developers enhance efficiency in both time and cost by characterizing rough randomness and unpredictability. Firstly, we propose applying auto-correlation and cross-correlation metrics for analog signals. Secondly, we suggest adopting joint entropy and mutual information metrics for digital signals.

Simulation of the Phase-Type Distribution Based on the Minimal Laplace Transform (최소 표현 라플라스 변환에 기초한 단계형 확률변수의 시뮬레이션에 관한 연구)

  • Sunkyo Kim
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.19-26
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    • 2024
  • The phase-type, PH, distribution is defined as the time to absorption into a terminal state in a continuous-time Markov chain. As the PH distribution includes family of exponential distributions, it has been widely used in stochastic models. Since the PH distribution is represented and generated by an initial probability vector and a generator matrix which is called the Markovian representation, we need to find a vector and a matrix that are consistent with given set of moments if we want simulate a PH distribution. In this paper, we propose an approach to simulate a PH distribution based on distribution function which can be obtained directly from moments. For the simulation of PH distribution of order 2, closed-form formula and streamlined procedures are given based on the Jordan decomposition and the minimal Laplace transform which is computationally more efficient than the moment matching methods for the Markovian representation. Our approach can be used more effectively than the Markovian representation in generating higher order PH distribution in queueing network simulation.

A Study on derivation of drought severity-duration-frequency curve through a non-stationary frequency analysis (비정상성 가뭄빈도 해석 기법에 따른 가뭄 심도-지속기간-재현기간 곡선 유도에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, Minsu;Park, Seo-Yeon;Jang, Ho-Won;Lee, Joo-Heon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.2
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    • pp.107-119
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    • 2020
  • This study analyzed past drought characteristics based on the observed rainfall data and performed a long-term outlook for future extreme droughts using Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP 8.5) climate change scenarios. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) used duration of 1, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months, a meteorological drought index, was applied for quantitative drought analysis. A single long-term time series was constructed by combining daily rainfall observation data and RCP scenario. The constructed data was used as SPI input factors for each different duration. For the analysis of meteorological drought observed relatively long-term since 1954 in Korea, 12 rainfall stations were selected and applied 10 general circulation models (GCM) at the same point. In order to analyze drought characteristics according to climate change, trend analysis and clustering were performed. For non-stationary frequency analysis using sampling technique, we adopted the technique DEMC that combines Bayesian-based differential evolution ("DE") and Markov chain Monte Carlo ("MCMC"). A non-stationary drought frequency analysis was used to derive Severity-Duration-Frequency (SDF) curves for the 12 locations. A quantitative outlook for future droughts was carried out by deriving SDF curves with long-term hydrologic data assuming non-stationarity, and by quantitatively identifying potential drought risks. As a result of performing cluster analysis to identify the spatial characteristics, it was analyzed that there is a high risk of drought in the future in Jeonju, Gwangju, Yeosun, Mokpo, and Chupyeongryeong except Jeju corresponding to Zone 1-2, 2, and 3-2. They could be efficiently utilized in future drought management policies.

The Analysis of Successional Trends by Topographic Positions in the Natural Deciduous Forest of Mt. Chumbong (점봉산(點鳳産) 일대 천연활엽수림(天然闊葉樹林)의 지형적(地形的) 위치(位置)에 따른 천이(遷移) 경향(傾向) 분석(分析))

  • Lee, Won Sup;Kim, Ji Hong;Jin, Guang Ze
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.89 no.5
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    • pp.655-665
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    • 2000
  • Taking account of the structural variation on species composition by topography, the successional trends were comparatively analyzed for the three topographic positions (valley, mid-slope, and ridge) in the natural deciduous forest of Mt. Chumbong area. The analysis was based upon the subsequent process of generation replacement by understory saplings and seedlings over the overstory trees which will be eventually fallen down. This study adopted the plot sampling method, establishing twenty $20m{\times}20m$ quadrats and collecting vegetation and site data on each different topographic position. The transition matrix model, which was modified from the mathematical theory of Markov chain, was employed to analyze the successional trends and thereafter to predict the overstory species composition in the future for each different topographic position. In valley, the simulation indicated the remarkable decrease in the proportion of species composition of present dominants Quercus mongolica and Fraxinus mandshurica from current 23% and 21% to around 4% of each at the steady state, which is predicted to take less than 200 years. On the other hand, the proportion of such species as Abies holophylla, Acer mono, Tilia amurensis, and Ulmus laciniata will increase at the steady state. In mid-slope, the result showed the remarkable decrease in the proportion of Juglans mandshurica, Kalopanax pictus, and Tilia amurensis from current 15%, 8%, and 15% to 2%, 1%, and 5%, respectively, at steady state predicted to take more than 250 years. In ridge, the current dominant Quercus mongolica was predicted to be decreased dramatically from 58% to 8% at steady state which could be achieved about 200 years. On the contrary, the proportion of Acer mono and Tilia amurensis will be increased from current 4% and 3% to more than 20% and 40%, respectively, at the steady state. Overall results suggested that the study forest is more likely seral rather than climax community. Even though a lot of variation is inevitable due to various kinds of site and vegetation development, the study forest is considered to be more than 200 years away from the steady state or climax in terms of overstory species composition.

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A Phylogenetic Analysis of Otters (Lutra lutra) Inhabiting in the Gyeongnam Area Using D-Loop Sequence of mtDNA and Microsatellite Markers (경남지역 수달(Lutra lutra)의 mitochondrial DNA D-loop지역과 microsatellite marker를 이용한 계통유전학적 유연관계 분석)

  • Park, Moon-Sung;Lim, Hyun-Tae;Oh, Ki-Cheol;Moon, Young-Rok;Kim, Jong-Gap;Jeon, Jin-Tae
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.385-392
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    • 2011
  • The otter (Lutra lutra) in Korea is classified as a first grade endangered species and is managed under state control. We performed a phylogenetic analysis of the otter that inhabits the Changnyeong, Jinju, and Geoje areas in Gyeongsangnamdo, Korea using mtDNA and microsatellite (MS) markers. As a result of the analysis using the 676-bp D-loop sequence of mtDNA, six haplotypes were estimated from five single nucleotide polymorphisms. The genetic distance between the Jinju and Geoje areas was greater than distances within the areas, and the distance between Jinju and Geoje was especially clear. From the phylogenetic tree estimated using the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis by the MrBays program, two subgroups, one containing samples from Jinju and the other containing samples from the Changnyeong and Geoje areas were clearly identified. The result of a parsimonious median-joining network analysis also showed two clear subgroups, supporting the result of the phylogenetic analysis. On the other hand, in the consensus tree estimated using the genetic distances estimated from the genotypes of 13 MS markers, there were clear two subgroups, one containing samples from the Jinju, Geoje and Changnyeong areas and the other containing samples from only the Jinju area. The samples were not identically classified into each subgroup defined by mtDNA and MS markers. It could be inferred that the differential classification of samples by the two different marker systems was because of the different characteristics of the marker systems used, that is, the mtDNA was for detecting maternal lineage and the MS markers were for estimating autosomal genetic distances. Nonetheless, the results from the two marker systems showed that there has been a progressive genetic fixation according to the habitats of the otters. Further analyses using not only newly developed MS markers that will possess more analytical power but also the whole mtDNA are needed. Expansion of the phylogenetic analysis using otter samples collected from the major habitats in Korea should be helpful in scientifically and efficiently maintaining and preserving them.

Balanced DQDB Applying the System with Cyclic Service for a Fair MAC Procotol (공정한 MAC 프로토콜을 위해 순환서비스시스템을 적용한 평형 DQDB)

  • 류희삼;강준길
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.18 no.12
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    • pp.1919-1927
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    • 1993
  • A new MAC protocol has been proposed and analysed to relieve the unfairness problems exhibited by the basic version of the DQDB standard. DQDB MAC protocol has the unfairness problems in throughputs. message delay and so or. And when the slots are reused or the file transmissions takes long, the unfairness problems in the system become worse. The new access protocol proposed here, which of called the Balanced DQDB, guarantees a fair bandwidth distribution by using one bit of the dual bus network protocol and keeps up all characteristics of DQDB. the DQDB analysis model introduced by Wen Jing, et al, was considered to analyse a sequential balance distribution of solts. And the probabilities of the empty in operation mode were represented to determine the probabilities for busy bits to generate on each node of the bus using the Markov chain. Through the simulations. the performances of the proposed Balanced DQDB and that of the standard DQDB of the BWB mechanism were compared at the state that the values of the RQ or CD counter on each node varied dynamically. As the results, it is shown that the Balanced DQDB has the decrement of throughputs in upstream, but the numbers of the used empty slots at each node of the Balanced DQDB had more than that of the others because the Balanced DQDB has over 0.9 throughputs in the 70~80% nodes of total node and it has constant throughputs at each node. And there results were analogous to that of the analytical model.

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Analysis of Signaling Load of Mobile IPv6 and Hierarchical Mobile IPv6 (Mobile IPv6와 Hierarchical Mobile IPv6의 시그널링 부하 분석)

  • Kong Ki-Sik;Song MoonBae;Hwang Chong-Sun
    • Journal of KIISE:Information Networking
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.515-524
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    • 2005
  • As the number of the mobile nodes (MNs) increases in the networks, the signaling traffic generated by mobility management for MNs will increase explosively, and such a phenomenon will probably affect overall network performance. In this paper, we propose a novel analytical approach using a continuous-time Markov chain model and hierarchical network model for the analysis on the signaling load of representative IPv6 mobility support Protocols such as Mobile IPv6 (MIPv6) and Hierarchical Mobile IPv6 (HMIPv6). According to these analytical modeling, this paper derives the various signaling costs, which are generated by an MN during its average domain residence time when MIPv6 and HMIPv6 are deployed under the same network architecture, respectively. In addition, based on these derived costs, we investigate the effects of various mobility/traffic-related parameters on the signaling costs generated by an MN under MIPv6 and HMIPv6. The analytical results show that as the average moving speed of an MN gets higher and the binding lifetime is set . to the larger value, and as its average packet arrival rate gets lower, the total signaling cost generated during its average domain residence time under HMIPv6 will get relatively lower than that under MIPv6, and that under the reverse conditions, the total signaling cost under MIPv6 will get relatively lower than that under HMIPv6.