• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
• /
• v.22 no.6
• /
• pp.1199-1215
• /
• 2011

Relaxing an unrealistic assumption of a representative percolation model, this paper demonstrates that herd behavior leads to a high increase in volatility but not trading volume, in contrast with information flows that give rise to increases in both volatility and trading volume. Although detecting herd behavior has posed a great challenge due to its empirical difficulty, this paper proposes a new methodology for detecting trading days with herding. Furthermore, this paper suggests a herd-behavior-stochastic-volatility model, which accounts for herding in financial markets. Strong evidence in favor of the model specification over the standard stochastic volatility model is based on empirical application with high frequency data in the Korean equity market, strongly supporting the intuition that herd behavior causes excess volatility. In addition, this research indicates that strong persistence in volatility, which is a prevalent feature in financial markets, is likely attributed to herd behavior rather than news.

• Journal of Communications and Networks
• /
• v.13 no.5
• /
• pp.463-471
• /
• 2011

Cooperative communications using relays in wireless networks have similar effects of multiple-input and multiple-output without the need of multiple antennas at each node. To implement cooperation into a system, efficient protocols are desired. In IEEE 802.11 families such as a/b/g, mobile stations can automatically adjust transmission rates according to channel conditions. However throughput performance degradation is observed by low-rate stations in multi-rate circumstances resulting in so-called performance anomaly. In this paper, we propose active relay-based cooperative medium access control (AR-CMAC) protocol, in which active relays desiring to transmit their own data for cooperation participate in relaying, and it is designed to increase throughput as a solution to performance anomaly. We have analyzed the performance of the simplified AR-CMAC using an embedded Markov chain model to demonstrate the gain of AR-CMAC and to verify it with our simulations. Simulations in an infrastructure network with an IEEE 802.11b/g access point show noticeable improvement than the legacy schemes.

• The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
• /
• v.7 no.3
• /
• pp.852-861
• /
• 2000

Software reliability growth models are used in testing stages of software development to model the error content and time intervals betwewn software failures. In this paper, using priors for the number of fault with the negative binomial distribution nd the error rate with gamma distribution, Bayesian inference and model selection method for Jelinski-Moranda and Goel-Okumoto and Schick-Wolverton models in software reliability. For model selection, we explored the sum of the relative error, Braun statistic and median variation. In Bayesian computation process, we could avoid the multiple integration by the use of Gibbs sampling, which is a kind of Markov Chain Monte Carolo method to compute the posterior distribution. Using simulated data, Bayesian inference and model selection is studied.

• Proceedings of the Korean Information Science Society Conference
• /
• 2000.10b
• /
• pp.90-92
• /
• 2000

데이터마이닝 문제는 데이터를 그 속성들에 따라 분류하여 예측하는 것뿐만 아니라 분류된 속성들간의 연관성에 대해 잘 설명할 수 있어야 한다. 일반적으로 변수들간의 연관성을 잘 설명할 수 있으면서도 높은 예측력을 가지는 방법으로는 베이지안 네트웍 분류자(Bayesian network classifier)가 있다. 그러나 이것은 데이터 마이닝과 같은 대용량 데이터에서는 성능이 떨어지는 단점이 있다. 이에 이 논문에서는 최근 RBF 신경망이 입력변수 선정문제에 성공적으로 적용된 Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo 방법을 이용하여 최적의 입력변수들만을 선택하여 베이지안 네트웍을 학습하는 Selective BN Augmented Naive-Bayes Classifier를 새로운 방안으로 제안하고 이를 실제 데이터마이닝 문제에 적용한 결과를 제시한다.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 2008.02a
• /
• pp.727-730
• /
• 2008

최근 연구에 의하면 기상 등의 외부적 요인이 수문학적 빈도를 변화시킨다고 알려지고 있다. 그러나 전통적인 수문학적 빈도해석은 자료의 정상성을 전제로 하기 때문에 어떤 외부인자의 따른 영향을 고려할 수 없다. 본 연구에서는 비정상성 빈도해석 모형의 기본 개념 및 절차에 대해서 살펴보았고 이를 국내 자료에 대해서 적용 검토하였다. 본 연구에서는 계층적 Bayesian 방법을 이용하여 한국에서 극치사상의 영향을 미치는 다양한 영향 인자를 평가하였다. 해수면온도, 예측 GCM 강수량 및 기상인자를 잠재적인 영향인자로 고려하였다. 수문위험도 분석에 관련된 매개변수는 Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) 방법을 이용하였다. 각 예측 인자의 적합성 및 중요성은 각 예측인자와 관련된 매개변수의 사후분포를 이용하여 검토 평가하였다.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
• /
• v.24 no.3
• /
• pp.333-343
• /
• 1998

This paper proposes variable stream and sample size(VSSS) group control charts in which both the number of streams selected for sampling and sample size from each of the selected streams are allowed to vary based on the values of the preceding sample statistics. The proposed charts select a small portion of streams and take samples of size n = 1 if both the largest and smallest of sample means fall between the lower and upper threshold limits, and select a large portion of streams and take samples of size n > 1 otherwise. A Markov chain approach is used to derive the formulas for evaluating the performances of the proposed charts. Numerical comparisons are made between the VSSS and fixed stream and sample size(FSSS) group control charts.

• IE interfaces
• /
• v.24 no.1
• /
• pp.15-23
• /
• 2011

This study considers paging schemes that can page some cells or only one cell within the location area to reduce paging cost by using PAs (Paging Agents) and compares their performances by using a new analytic method. There are three ways of paging schemes using PAs; BSPA (Base Staton Paging Agent), 2SPA (2-Step Paging Agent), LAPA (Location Area Paging Agent). This study proposes exact performance of BSPA and 2SPA using a new analytic method based on Markov chain modeling to find the most efficient paging scheme. Numerical results for various circumstances are presented by using proposed analytic method to select a proper paging scheme in mobile communication networks.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.22 no.4
• /
• pp.349-359
• /
• 2015

We study a semiparametric Bayesian approach to small area estimation under a nested error linear regression model with area level covariate subject to measurement error. Consideration is given to radial basis functions for the regression spline and knots on a grid of equally spaced sample quantiles of covariate with measurement errors in the nested error linear regression model setup. We conduct a hierarchical Bayesian structural measurement error model for small areas and prove the propriety of the joint posterior based on a given hierarchical Bayesian framework since some priors are defined non-informative improper priors that uses Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to fit it. Our methodology is illustrated using numerical examples to compare possible models based on model adequacy criteria; in addition, analysis is conducted based on real data.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.23 no.6
• /
• pp.445-466
• /
• 2016

Nonparametric Bayesian methods have seen rapid and sustained growth over the past 25 years. We present a gentle introduction to the methods, motivating the methods through the twin perspectives of consistency and false consistency. We then step through the various constructions of the Dirichlet process, outline a number of the basic properties of this process and move on to the mixture of Dirichlet processes model, including a quick discussion of the computational methods used to fit the model. We touch on the main philosophies for nonparametric Bayesian data analysis and then reanalyze a famous data set. The reanalysis illustrates the concept of admissibility through a novel perturbation of the problem and data, showing the benefit of shrinkage estimation and the much greater benefit of nonparametric Bayesian modelling. We conclude with a too-brief survey of fancier nonparametric Bayesian methods.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.27 no.4
• /
• pp.413-430
• /
• 2020

The multiply Type-II hybrid censoring scheme is disadvantaged by an experiment time that is too long. To overcome this limitation, we propose a generalized multiply Type-II hybrid censoring scheme. Some estimators of the scale parameter of the exponential distribution are derived under a generalized multiply Type-II hybrid censoring scheme. First, the maximum likelihood estimator of the scale parameter of the exponential distribution is obtained under the proposed censoring scheme. Second, we obtain the Bayes estimators under different loss functions with a noninformative prior and an informative prior. We approximate the Bayes estimators by Lindleys approximation and the Tierney-Kadane method since the posterior distributions obtained by the two priors are complicated. In addition, the Bayes estimators are obtained by using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo samples. Finally, all proposed estimators are compared in the sense of the mean squared error through the Monte Carlo simulation and applied to real data.