• Title/Summary/Keyword: Market Uncertainty

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Exploring market uncertainty in early ship design

  • Zwaginga, Jesper;Stroo, Ko;Kana, Austin
    • International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.352-366
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    • 2021
  • To decrease Europe's harmful emissions, the European Union aims to substantially increase its offshore wind energy capacity. To further develop offshore wind energy, investment in ever-larger construction vessels is necessary. However, this market is characterised by seemingly unpredictable growth of market demand, turbine capacity and distance from shore. Currently it is difficult to deal with such market uncertainty within the ship design process. This research aims to develop a method that is able to deal with market uncertainty in early ship design by increasing knowledge when design freedom is still high. The method uses uncertainty modelling prior to the requirement definition stage by performing global research into the market, and during the concept design stage by iteratively co-evolving the vessel design and business case in parallel. The method consists of three parts; simulating an expected market from data, modelling multiple vessel designs, and an uncertainty model that evaluates the performance of the vessels in the market. The case study into offshore wind foundation installation vessels showed that the method can provide valuable insight into the effect of ship parameters like main dimensions, crane size and ship speed on the performance in an uncertain market. These results were used to create a value robust design, which is capable of handling uncertainty without changes to the vessel. The developed method thus provides a way to deal with market uncertainty in the early ship design process.

The Effect of Market Orientation on Speed-to-market in International Markets

  • Kim, Eunmi
    • East Asian Journal of Business Economics (EAJBE)
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.39-49
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    • 2019
  • Purpose - The major aim of this article is to advance understanding of the relationship between market orientation and speed-to-market. Specifically, this study examines the different impacts of component of market orientation on commitment to R&D and speed-to-market and explores whether market uncertainty plays a role of moderating in speed-to-market for market-oriented firms. Research design, data, and methodology - This study collected a survey data from Korean exporting firms. The Final sample size was 196. The measure of market orientation was conceptualized with second order constructs. All items were measured on five-point scale. To confirm hypotheses, this study conducted a hierarchical regression. Results - As sub-constructs of market orientation, customer orientation, competitor orientation and interfunctional coordination foster speed-to-market, and the relationship between only customer orientation and speed-to-market might be weakened when the extent of market uncertainty is high. Conclusions - This study confirmed the relationship between market orientation and speed-to-market, with three components of market orientation respectively, and whether market uncertainty plays a role of moderating which weaken the link between market orientation and speed-to-market. It could be useful to take a component approach to the market orientation construct, because the roles of different market orientation components might vary, contingent on uncertainty in the environment.

The Effects of Financial Market Uncertainty: Does Regime Change Occur During Financial Market Crises? (금융시장 불확실성의 효과: 금융시장 위기 기간 중 국면전환이 발생하였는가?)

  • Kim, Seewon
    • Economic Analysis
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.70-99
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    • 2019
  • Using a stochastic volatility-in-mean VAR model consisting of the KOSPI index, the foreign exchange rate, the government bond rate, and the credit spread, this study investigates the effects of financial market uncertainty on financial markets. We find that higher uncertainty has recessionary effects on financial markets. The effects are especially stronger in equity markets and in won-dollar exchange markets. We also find that the effects of uncertainty become stronger during times of financial market stress compared to normal times. Finally, the results imply that financial market uncertainty may potentially affect the real sector, too.

The Evolution of Market Mechanism in B2B Electronic Commerce: An Exploratory Study (기업간 전자상거래시장의 시장 메커니즘 진화에 관한 탐색적 연구 -Electronic Market 가설을 중심으로-)

  • 김효근;홍진영;정성휘
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.41-61
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    • 2001
  • Many markets are forecast to see significant changes due to the growth of electronic commerce made possible by the internet. The way of doing business with internet affects the market mechanism. It is now over 10 years since Malone et al(1987) set out their hypothesis on electronic markets, and electronic hierarchies. An electronic market is an interorganizational information system through which multiple buyers and sellers interact to accomplish one or more of the following market-making activities. And they predicted that markets evolve toward electronic markets, by reducing search cost, which may result in significantly. higher price competition among sellers and therefore lower prices for buyers. And the degree of two factors; asset specificity and uncertainty, affect the market mechanism. Products with low asset specificity and low uncertainty are compatible with a market relationship while the greater the asset specificity and uncertainty, the more likely it is to favour a hierarchical structure. Based on the these researches, we observed and analyzed a case study of market mechanism in Internet business. We found the fact that even though Internet could make the business environment in which lots of buyers and suppliers participate, electronic market will evolve market mechanism. 1 analyzed two factors, which affected market evolution. First, When Asset specificity is low in electronic commerce, market structure should be preferred to hierarchical structure. Second, When transaction uncertainty is low in electronic commerce, market structure should be preferred In hierarchical structure. This research covers conceptual and empirical aspects on electronic market structure. Future research should be variously done about the influential factors of electronic market mechanism.

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Analysis on the Dependence Structure between Energy Price and Economic Uncertainty Using Copula Model (Copula 모형을 이용한 에너지 가격과 경제적 불확실성 사이의 의존관계 분석)

  • Kim, Bu-Kwon;Choi, Ki-Hong;Yoon, Seong-Min
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.145-170
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    • 2020
  • This study analyzes the dependence structure between energy (crude oil, natural gas, coal) prices and economic (real and financial) uncertainty. Summary of the results of the dependence structure between energy prices and economic uncertainty analysis is as follows. First, the results of model selection show that the BB7 copula model for the pair of crude oil price and economic uncertainty, the Joe copula model for the pair of natural gas price and economic uncertainty, and the Clayton copula model for the pair of coal price and economic uncertainty were chosen. Second, looking at the dependency structure, it showed that the pair of energy (crude oil, natural gas, coal) prices and real market uncertainty show positive dependence. Whereas, the only pair of financial market uncertainty-crude oil price shows positive dependency. In particular, crude oil price was found to have the greatest dependence on economic uncertainty. Third, looking at the results of tail dependency, the pair of real market uncertainty-crude oil price and pair of real market uncertainty-natural gas price have an asymmetric relationship with the upper tail dependency. It can be seen that the only pair of financial market uncertainty-crude oil represents asymmetric relationships with the upper tail dependencies. In other words, combinations with asymmetric relationships have shown strong dependence when negative extreme events occur. On the other hand, tail dependence between economic uncertainty and coal price be not found.

The Effects of RMO and PMO on SMEs' New Product Performance: The Moderating Role of Foreign Market Environment (반응적시장지향성과 선제적시장지향성이 중소기업의 신제품 성과에 미치는 영향: 수출시장환경의 조절효과를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Youngwoo;Cho, Hyo Eun;Jeong, Insik
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.175-194
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    • 2019
  • In order to overcome the limitation of market orientation concept, Narver et al. (2004) have extended the original concept into two dimensions, responsive market orientation (RMO) and proactive market orientation (PMO), respectively. Yet, there has been very limited empirical studies that analyzed the differential effects of each market orientation on firm outcomes, especially in the Korean context. We analyze the impact of RMO and PMO on the new product performance in the perspective of SMEs and examine the moderating effect of external factors such as environmental uncertainty and market similarity. The results of this study show that both RMO and PMO have a significant positive effect on the new product performance of SMEs. Also, environment uncertainty shows a negative moderating effect on the relationship between RMO and new product performance, whereas it has positive moderation with PMO. This suggests that focusing on potential customers' needs rather than current needs helps improve firm performance as the competitive environment surrounding the firm becomes more uncertain. Lastly, market similarity showed a positive moderating effect on the relationship between RMO and new product performance, but not on PMO.

A Study on the Effect of Customer Integration and Market Orientation on the Uncertainty and Flexibility of Supply Chain and Management (고객통합과 시장 지향성이 공급사슬 불확실성과 유연성 및 경영성과에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Jung, He-Kyung;Boo, Jeman
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.178-189
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study was to analyze structural relationships with regard to the effect of customer integration, which is a type of integration in the supply chain, and market orientation of supply chain on the resulting change in the supply chain and management performance. The results of analysis in this study are as follows: First, customer integration and market orientation had a positive effect on reducing the flexibility and uncertainty of SCM. The decreased flexibility and uncertainty of SCM had a positive effect on non-financial performance, which also had a positive effect on financial performance. Second, customer integration and market orientation had a positive effect on financial and non-financial performance indirectly by decreasing the flexibility and uncertainty of SCM. Third, the effect of customer integration and uncertainty of SCM on the flexibility of SCM changed depending on the position in the supply chain; the effect was larger in the distribution group. The implications based on the analysis results are as follows: It is expected that the ability to deal with market changes in the overall supply chain is improved by laying the foundation for cooperation through establishing information infrastructure, including sharing information with trade partners and integrating systems, and implementing customer integration based on these achievements. It is also necessary to consider the business types and characteristics of individual companies in establishing information infrastructure.

The Price of Risk in the Korean Stock Distribution Market after the Global Financial Crisis (글로벌 금융위기 이후 한국 주식유통시장의 위험가격에 관한 연구)

  • Sohn, Kyoung-Woo;Liu, Won-Suk
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.71-82
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    • 2015
  • Purpose - The purpose of this study is to investigate risk price implied from the pricing kernel of Korean stock distribution market. Recently, it is considered that the quantitative easing programs of major developed countries are contributing to a reduction in global uncertainty caused by the 2007~2009 financial crisis. If true, the risk premium as compensation for global systemic risk or economic uncertainty should show a decrease. We examine whether the risk price in the Korean stock distribution market has declined in recent years, and attempt to provide practical implications for investors to manage their portfolios more efficiently, as well as academic implications. Research design, data and methodology - To estimate the risk price, we adopt a non-parametric method; the minimum norm pricing kernel method under the LOP (Law of One Price) constraint. For the estimation, we use 17 industry sorted portfolios provided by the KRX (Korea Exchange). Additionally, the monthly returns of the 17 industry sorted portfolios, from July 2000 to June 2014, are utilized as data samples. We set 120 months (10 years) as the estimation window, and estimate the risk prices from July 2010 to June 2014 by month. Moreover, we analyze correlation between any of the two industry portfolios within the 17 industry portfolios to suggest further economic implications of the risk price we estimate. Results - According to our results, the risk price in the Korean stock distribution market shows a decline over the period of July 2010 to June 2014 with statistical significance. During the period of the declining risk price, the average correlation level between any of the two industry portfolios also shows a decrease, whereas the standard deviation of the average correlation shows an increase. The results imply that the amount of systematic risk in the Korea stock distribution market has decreased, whereas the amount of industry-specific risk has increased. It is one of the well known empirical results that correlation and uncertainty are positively correlated, therefore, the declining correlation may be the result of decreased global economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, less asset correlation enables investors to build portfolios with less systematic risk, therefore the investors require lower risk premiums for the efficient portfolio, resulting in the declining risk price. Conclusions - Our results may provide evidence of reduction in global systemic risk or economic uncertainty in the Korean stock distribution market. However, to defend the argument, further analysis should be done. For instance, the change of global uncertainty could be measured with funding costs in the global money market; subsequently, the relation between global uncertainty and the price of risk might be directly observable. In addition, as time goes by, observations of the risk price could be extended, enabling us to confirm the relation between the global uncertainty and the effect of quantitative easing. These topics are beyond our scope here, therefore we reserve them for future research.

Unit Commitment of a GENCO Under the Competitive Environment Considering the Uncertainty of Market Prices (가격 불확실성을 고려한 발전사업자 기동정지계획)

  • 정정원
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.52 no.4
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    • pp.234-239
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    • 2003
  • In recent decades, many countries have introduced competition in the electricity industry. Now, unit commitment becomes not a problem to be solved by a monopoly company but the one to be tackled by each generation company(GENCO). Its aim has been altered from the global cost minimization to the each GENCO's profit maximization. In this paper, the author proposes the scheme of unit commitment of a GENCO to maximize profit considering the uncertainty of market clearing price. The type of the assumed market is a uniform price market. A genetic algorithm is used for the maximization of the profit.

A Study on the Uncertainty of Additional Generating Capacity in Long Term Electricity Plan (전력수급기본계획에서 발전소 준공 불확실성에 대한 고찰)

  • Kim, C.S.;Rhee, C.H.
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2005.07a
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    • pp.843-845
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    • 2005
  • The uncertainty of long term electricity plan consists of the uncertainty of demand forecast and additional generating capacity. Demand forecast is clearly improved the accuracy than the past through improving forecasting methods. However, the uncertainty of additional generating capacity is increased due to the change of market environment. In an operation by a sole utility, additional generating capacity would be possible by the regulation of government. Currently the generation companies have spined off from KEPCO and some IPPs participate the electricity market. It increases the uncertainty due to weakened regulation. Also the environment movement by NGOs and occurrence of civil affairs cause the increase of uncertainty. This research would analyze the current situation on the uncertainty of additional generating capacity and construction delays. Furthermore this research would present the plan to reflecting it in long term electricity plan.

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