• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.44 no.5
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• pp.407-413
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• 2020

In this paper we examined a novel extension of the convergence empirics for the maritime business cycle which considers structure breaks and/or changes. To provide theoretical justification, the convergence hypothesis uses the relaxed assumption to technology shocks. Based on the recent empirical results provided by Kim and Chang (2020), we consider nonlinear dynamics that capture the properties on structural changes in the equilibrium adjustment process. This approach bridges the gap between the theoretical framework and empirical specifications. In particular, we applied the convergence hypothesis to the multiple structure change model for the maritime business cycle. Our application to the maritime data showed support of the convergence hypothesis allowing multiple structure changes during the high volatile period and offers additional insight into the forecasting maritime business cycles.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.15 no.11
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• pp.59-72
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• 2017

Purpose - This paper evaluated the efficiency performance of the three major maritime transport markets and examined the determinants of the performance. The firms' revenue fluctuates with the changes of the economic cycle; hence it is important for them to set up business strategies to improve efficiencies. A lack of efficiency measurements for shipping firms leads to a significant gap in determining their overall performance. Research design, data, and methodology - Each of DEA scores was adopted for the evaluation and panel regression was used to examine the impact of determinants on the performance. The analysis included 50 shipping firms from three maritime transport markets as follows; 15 firms of container liners, 18 firms of bulk carrier and 17 firms of tanker carriers, and its period was from 2010 to 2016. Results - In the CCR model, container liners were the highest, tanker carriers were the second, and bulk carriers were the lowest in operation efficiency and financial efficiency. By region, operation efficiency and financial efficiency was high in the order of America, Asia, and Europe. Conclusions - This study suggests business strategies for maritime transport companies based on the analytical results of determinants of operational and financial efficiency.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.457-466
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• 2015

In this paper, the academic research on the value chain and the supply chain of offshore business are conducted for the investigation of the offshore business comprehensive configuration. Then, the assembly and ergonomic simulation was conducted for the purpose of advanced validation of offshore project.. With respect to the simulation analysis, the assembly simulation model(w.r.t. drill ship) and the ergonomic simulation model(w.r.t. FPSO) are constructed. Through the assembly simulation of drillship, the production processes could be validated in terms of availability. Also, the problem of topside design of FPSO was found by ergonomic simulation.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.153-164
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• 2022

In this study, we estimate the quantile-regression framework of the shipping industry for the Capesize used ship, which is a typical raw material transportation from January 2000 to December 2021. This research aims two main contributions. First, we analyze the relationship between the Capesize used ship, which is a typical type in the raw material transportation market, and the freight market, for which mixed empirical analysis results are presented. Second, we present an empirical analysis model that considers the structural transformation proposed in the Hyunsok Kim and Myung-hee Chang(2020a) study in quantile-regression. In structural change investigations, the empirical results confirm that the quantile model is able to overcome the problems caused by non-stationarity in time series analysis. Then, the long-run relationship of the co-integration framework divided into long and short-run effects of exogenous variables, and this is extended to a prediction model subdivided by quantile. The results are the basis for extending the analysis based on the shipping theory to artificial intelligence and machine learning approaches.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.45 no.6
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• pp.276-283
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• 2021

The capital structure of the shipping business, which is characterized by its capital intensity and extreme market volatility, is closely related to long-term stability. Research in this area has been conducted mostly in the form of deriving the determinants of capital structure from company-wise financial ratios. This research, on the other hand, has a different approach to the topic. It identifies the relationship between actual cash profit and loss and other variables - i.e. actual vessel prices, interest rates and leverage ratio - by employing historical simulation. The result demonstrates that the P anamax cash profit shows 0 (break-even point) when the debt weight reaches 64.38% (debt ratio 180.74%) and the Cape, 73.04% (debt ratio 270.92%). Additionally, the ships of different types show a divided pattern for the pre- and post-'Super Boom'. It indicates that the business area and the market cycle should be considered when a leverage strategy is established. This research benefits shipping companies set a rational leverage strategy as well as delivers a reasonable guideline to government authorities for the development of a sound policy on shipping finance.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.24 no.2 s.88
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• pp.53-63
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• 2006

The objective of this study is to estimate Korean transportation service index (KTSI), and to explore possible uses of the KTSI. The KTSI was monthly index to represent the level of passenger and freight services by road, railroad, air and maritime modes, which was developed from eight series. Four of these series measure the level of passenger services (passenger-kilometers) by road, railroad. air and maritime modes : monthly data from January 1995 to December 2004. Similarly. the remaining four series measure the level or freight activity (tonnage) by four modes during the same period. Given the weights of modal revenues, component series were aggregated into two indexes (passenger index and freight index) and a composite index using Chained Fisher Ideal index. which was a geometric mean of the Laspeyres index and the Passche index. The Fisher Ideal index is one of the 'superlative' indexes, which diminish 'substitution bias' as current-weighted indexes. As a result, the freight index and the composite index explain economic conditions better than the passenger index. Based on the composite index. the newly estimated KTSI shows an average lag time of one and a half years at peaks and three months at troughs in comparison with domestic business cycles. Nonetheless. the following efforts are needed for more credible and useful estimates; establishment of data collection scheme in time. credibility uplift of used data, development of various indexation methods.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.41 no.1
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• pp.25-32
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• 2017

The purpose of this investigation is to analyze the synchronization between the representative global freight index, the Baltic Dry bulk Index (BDI) and the China Container Freight Index (CCFI) with monthly data from 2000 to 2016. Using the non-stationarity of the business cycle that is able to include common trends, we employ the Engle-Granger 2 stage co-integration test and found no synchronization. On the contrary, we additionally estimated the causality between the markets and revealed the causality, which implies that the Chinese economy has a significant effect on the global market. The results of this empirical analysis demonstrate that the CCFI of China is appropriate for analyzing the shipping industry. In practice, this means that it is more appropriate to include CCFI in the global market outlook than use it as a substitute for the global freight rate index, the BDI. This is a case study of the synchronization of the economic fluctuations of the shipping industry. It suggests that the economic fluctuations of China need to be considered in the unstable global market forecast. In particular, this case applies to the fluctuations in the shipping industry synchronism and provides important results in scientific terms.