• Title/Summary/Keyword: Mann-Kendall trend test

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Evaluation of long-term water quality management policy effect using nonparametric statistical methods

  • Jung, Kang Young;Ahn, Jung Min;Cho, Sohyun;Lee, Yeong Jae;Han, Kun Yeun;Shin, Dongseok;Kim, Kyunghyun
    • Membrane and Water Treatment
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    • v.10 no.5
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    • pp.339-352
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    • 2019
  • Long term water quality change was analyzed to evaluate the effect of the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) policy. A trend analysis was performed for biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations data monitored at the outlets of the total 41 TMDL unit watersheds of the Nakdong River in the Republic of Korea. Because water quality data do not usually follow a normal distribution, a nonparametric statistical trend analysis method was used. The monthly mean values of BOD and TP for the period between 2004 and 2015 were analyzed by the seasonal Mann-Kendall test and the locally weighted scatterplot smoother (LOWESS). The TMDL policy effect on the water quality change of each unit watershed was analyzed together with the results of the trend analysis. From the seasonal Mann-Kendall test results, it was found that for BOD, 7.8 % of the 41 points showed downward trends, 26.8 % and the rest 65.9% showed upward and no trends. For TP, 51.2% showed no trends and the rest 48.8% showed downward trends. From the LOWESS analysis results, TP began to decrease in most of the unit watersheds from mid-2010s when intensive chemical treatment processes were introduced to existing wastewater treatment plants. Overall, for BOD, relatively more points were improved in the main stream compared to the points of the tributaries although overall trends were mostly no trend or upward. For TP, about half of the points were improved and the rest showed no trends.

Analysis of drought in Northwestern Bangladesh using standardized precipitation index and its relation to Southern oscillation index

  • Nury, Ahmad Hasan;Hasan, Khairul
    • Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.58-68
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    • 2016
  • The study explored droughts using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) in the northwestern region of Bangladesh, which is the drought prone area. In order to assess the trend and variability of monthly rainfall, as well as 3-month scale SPI, non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) tests and continuous wavelet transform were used respectively. The effect of climatic parameters on the drought in this region was also evaluated using SPI, with the Southern Oscilation Index (SOI) by means of the wavelet coherence technique, a relatively new and powerful tool for describing processes. The MK test showed no statistically significant monthly rainfall trends in the selected stations, whereas the seasonal MK test showed a declining rainfall trend in Bogra, Ishurdi, Rangpur and Sayedpur stations respectively. Sen's slope of six stations also provided a decreasing rainfall trend. The trend of the SPI, as well as Sen's slope indicated an increasing dryness trend in this area. Dominant periodicity of 3-month scale SPI at 8 to 16 months, 16 to 32 months, and 32 to 64 months were observed in the study area. The outcomes from this study contribute to hydrologists to establish strategies, priorities and proper use of water resources.

Long-Term Trend Analysis and Exploratory Data Analysis of Geumho River based on Seasonal Mann-Kendall Test (계절 맨-켄달 기법을 이용한 금호강 본류 BOD의 장기 경향 분석 및 탐색적 자료 분석)

  • Jung, Kang-Young;Lee, In Jung;Lee, Kyung-Lak;Cheon, Se-Uk;Hong, Jun Young;Ahn, Jung-Min
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.217-229
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    • 2016
  • The government has conducted a plan of total maximum daily loads(TMDL), which divides with unit watershed, for management of stable water quality target by setting the permitted total amount of the pollutant. In this study, BOD concentration trends over the last 10 years from 2005 to 2014 were analyzed in the Geumho river. Improvement effect of water quality throughout the implementation period of TMDL was evaluated using the seasonal Mann-Kendall test and a LOWESS(locally weighted scatter plot smoother) smooth. As a study result of the seasonal Mann-Kendall test and the LOWESS smooth, BOD concentration in the Geumho river appeared to have been reduced or held at a constant. As a result of quantitatively analysis for BOD concentration with exploratory data analysis(EDA), the mean and the median of BOD concentration appeared in the order of GH8 > GH7 > GH6 > GH5 > GH4 > GH3 > GH2 > GH1. The monthly average concentration of BOD appeared in the order of Apr > Mar > Feb >May > Jun > Jul > Jan > Aug > Sep > Dec > Nov > Oct. As a result of the outlier, its value was the most frequent in February, which is estimated 1.5 times more than July, and was smallest frequent in July. The outlier in terms of water quality management is necessary in order to establish a management plan for the contaminants in watershed.

Long-term Variations of Water Quality Parameters in Lake Kyoungpo (경포호에서 수질변수들의 장기적인 변화)

  • Kwak, Sungjin;Bhattrai, Bal Dev;Choi, Kwansoon;Heo, Woomyung
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.48 no.2
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    • pp.95-107
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    • 2015
  • In order to identify long-term trends of water quality parameters in Lake Kyeongpo, Mann-Kendall test, Sen's slope estimator and linear regression were applied on data, with 15 parameters from three different sites and rainfall, monitored once in every two months from March to November during 1998~2013. Seasonal variation analysis only used Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator. Analysis result showed that salinity, transparency and nutrient variables (total phosphorus, dissolved inorganic phosphorus, total nitrogen, nitrate nitrogen, ammonia nitrogen) were only parameters having statistically significant trend. In linear regression analysis, salinity (surface and bottom layer of all sites) and transparency (only at site 1), were figured out with statistically significant increasing trend, while in non-parametric statistical method, salinity and transparency in all sites (surface, middle, deep) were figured out with statistically significant increasing trend. Water quality parameters showing statistically significant decreasing trends were dissolved oxygen (surface layer of site 1 and bottom layer of sites 2 and 3), total phosphorus (sites 1 and 2), dissolved inorganic phosphorus, total nitrogen, nitrate nitrogen and ammonia nitrogen in the linear regression analysis and, dissolved oxygen (bottom layer of all sites), total phosphorus, dissolved inorganic phosphorus, total nitrogen, nitrate nitrogen and ammonia nitrogen in the non-parametric method. Seasonal trend analysis result showed that salinity, turbidity, transparency and suspended solids in spring, salinity, transparency, nitrate nitrogen and suspended solids in summer and temperature, salinity, transparency and suspended solids in fall were the variables depending on the season with increasing trends. In general, rainfall during the research period showed decreasing trend. The significant reduction trends of nutrients in Lake Kyeongpo were believed to be related to lagoon restoration and water management project run by Gangneung city and under-water wear removal, but further detailed studies are needed to know the exact causes.

Analysis of Domestic Water Consumption Characteristics for Water Usage Purpose (가정용수의 사용 목적별 소비경향 특성분석)

  • Choi, Sun-hee;Son, Mi-na;Kim, Sang-hyun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.23-29
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    • 2008
  • Throughout the analysis of field data from water distribution system, valid parameters were determined that can be included in the water service and design plan. This study investigates water consumption patterns to understand the variation of water-demand structures utilizing the pattern analysis of domestic purpose water. Water use data were collected by a public water resources management firm in Korea, Kwater, for 140 houses monitored during three years. Flow meters were installed at the faucet for drinking water, the shower booth, the laundry machine, bathroom sink, toilet, and garden faucet. Data was filtered using multiple physically meaningful criteria to improve analysis credibility. Mann Kendall and Spearman's Rho tests were used to carry out the analysis. Distinct factors of water consumption patterns can be determined for both increasing and decreasing trends of water use. Throughout the data analysis, the characterization of terms was classified and analyzed by the condition of the location of water-demand. Analysis of this data provide a physical basis for the parameter configuration of a reasonable design for a domestic water demand prediction model.

Variation of Hydro-Meteorological Variables in Korea

  • Nkomozepi, Temba;Chung, Sang-Ok;Kim, Hyun-Ki
    • Current Research on Agriculture and Life Sciences
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.135-143
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    • 2014
  • The variability and temporal trends of the annual and seasonal minimum and maximum temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, wind speed, sunshine hours, and runoff were analyzed for 5 major rivers in Korea from 1960 to 2010. A simple regression and non-parametric methods (Mann-Kendall test and Sen's estimator) were used in this study. The analysis results show that the minimum temperature ($T_{min}$) had a higher increasing trend than the maximum temperature ($T_{max}$), and the average temperature increased by about $0.03^{\circ}C\;yr.^{-1}$. The relative humidity and wind speed decreased by $0.02%\;yr^{-1}$ and $0.01m\;s^{-1}yr^{-1}$, respectively. With the exception of the Han River basin, the regression analysis and Mann-Kendall and Sen results failed to detect trends for the runoff and rainfall over the study period. Rapid land use changes were linked to the increase in the runoff in the Han River basin. The sensitivity of the evapotranspiration and ultimately the runoff to the meteorological variables was in the order of relative humidity > sunshine duration > wind speed > $T_{max}$ > $T_{min}$. Future studies should investigate the interaction of the variables analyzed herein, and their relative contributions to the runoff trends.

Dissolved Oxygen Trend in Sapgyo Stream Watershed (삽교천유역의 용존산소 추세)

  • Rim, Chang-Soo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.6
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    • pp.667-681
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    • 2013
  • In this study, monthly and seasonal dissolved oxygen trends of 19 water quality measurement stations in Sapgyo stream watershed were analyzed using monthly dissolved oxygen (DO) data measured for 16 years (1995~2010). Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen's slope estimator were carried out for trend analysis. Furthermore, Sapgyo stream watershed was divided into four different sections (Sapgyo stream, Muhan stream, Gykgyo stream, and Sapgyo lake) and chi-square test of homogeneity for DO trend was carried out for four different sections. The study results indicated that most of water quality measurement stations showed increasing or non-significant trend of DO on a monthly and seasonal basis. The chi-square test of homogeneity for each water quality measurement station showed the statistical homogeneity in seasonal DO trend; however, the test results showed the statistical non-homogeneity in monthly DO trend for the stations located in the reservoir. Overall, the dissolved oxygen trend in each water quality measurement station showed different patterns depending on the location of each station and season.

Rainfall Trend Detection Using Non Parametric Test in the Yom River Basin, Thailand

  • Mama, Ruetaitip;Bidorn, Butsawan;Namsai, Matharit;Jung, Kwansue
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.424-424
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    • 2017
  • Several studies of the world have analyzed the regional rainfall trends in large data sets. However, it reported that the long-term behavior of rainfall was different on spatial and temporal scales. The objective of this study is to determine the local trends of rainfall indices in the Yom River Basin, Thailand. The rainfall indices consist of the annual total precipitation (PRCTPOP), number of heavy rainfall days ($R_{10}$), number of very heavy rainfall days ($R_{20}$), consecutive of dry days (CDD), consecutive of wet days (CWD), daily maximum rainfall ($R_{x1}$), five-days maximum rainfall ($R_{x5}$), and total of annual rainy day ($R_{annual}$). The rainfall data from twelve hydrological stations during the period 1965-2015 were used to analysis rainfall trend. The Mann-Kendall test, which is non-parametric test was adopted to detect trend at 95 percent confident level. The results of these data were found that there is only one station an increasing significantly trend in PRCTPOP index. CWD, which the index is expresses longest annual wet days, was exhibited significant negative trend in three locations. Meanwhile, the significant positive trend of CDD that represents longest annual dry spell was exhibited four locations. Three out of thirteen stations had significant decreasing trend in $R_{annual}$ index. In contrast, there is a station statistically significant increasing trend. The analysis of $R_{x1}$ was showed a station significant decreasing trend at located in the middle of basin, while the $R_{x5}$ of the most locations an insignificant decreasing trend. The heavy rainfall index indicated significant decreasing trend in two rainfall stations, whereas was not notice the increase or decrease trends in very heavy rainfall index. The results of this study suggest that the trend signal in the Yom River Basin in the half twentieth century showed the decreasing tendency in both of intensity and frequency of rainfall.

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A Study on the Selection of the Total Pollution Load Management at Tributaries by Evaluation of Water Quality Volatility: Case Study for Chungcheongnam-do (수질변동성 평가를 통한 지류총량제 도입 대상유역 선정에 관한 연구: 충청남도를 중심으로)

  • Jeongho Choi;Hongsu Kim;Byunguk Cho;Sanghyun Park;Mukyu Lee;Byeonggu Lee;Uram Kang
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.39 no.5
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    • pp.377-389
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    • 2023
  • Chungcheongnam-do has been measuring the flow rate and water quality of streams in the province once a month since 2011 in order to water environment policies. Based on the results, after evaluating the coefficient of variation and the tendency of the water quality trend by using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's Slope for each stream, the streams subject to priority introduction of Total Pollution Load Management at Tributaries were selected through the Stream Grouping Method. The water quality trend analysis results for 125 streams using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's Slope were evaluated as streams showing a tendency of deteriorating water quality Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD): 13 streams, Total Phosphorus (T-P): 16 streams). Streams with deteriorating water quality were classified into A-D groups using the Stream Grouping Method. Group A, which has a high flow rate and high water quality, is a stream that requires priority management, and was selected as a stream for introduction of Total Pollution Load Management at Tributaries. There are 7 streams that need to be introduced into the BOD category, and there are 7 streams that need to be introduced into the T-P category. In this study, based on flow and water quality monitoring data accumulated over a long period of time (2011-2022), statistical techniques are used to select watersheds in which water quality is deteriorating. Accordingly, it is expected that it will be useful in establishing a water quality improvement plan in the future.

Development of Drought Vulnerability Index Using Delphi Method Considering Climate Change and Trend Analysis in Nakdong River Basin (낙동강 유역의 기후변화를 고려한 경향성 분석과 Delphi 기법을 이용한 가뭄 취약성 지수 개발)

  • Yang, Jeong-Seok;Kim, Il-Hwan
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.2245-2254
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    • 2013
  • A vulnerability index was developed for drought by using trend analysis and Delphi method. Twelve indicators were selected based on three groups, i.e., hydrological, meteorological, and humanistic groups. Data were collected from Nakdong river watershed. Three trend tests, i.e., Mann-Kendall, Hotelling-Pabst, and Sen's trend tests, were performed for standardizing the indicators and Delphi method was used to estimate the weights for individual indicators. The drought vulnerability index was calculated for seven regions in the Nakdong watershed and Hapcheon turned out to be the most vulnerable region among the study regions. The drought vulnerability index developed in this study can be applied to other regions in Korea for establishing national water resources management plan.