• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 1990.04a
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• pp.272-288
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• 1990

The uncertainty quantification process in probabilistic Risk Assessment usually involves a specification of the uncertainty in the input data and the propagation of this uncertainty to the final risk results. The distributional sensitivity analysis is to study the impact of the various assumptions made during the quantification of input parameter uncertainties on the final output uncertainty. The uncertainty importance of input parameters, in this case, should reflect the degree of changes in the whole output distribution and not just in a point estimate value. A measure of the uncertainty importance is proposed in the present paper. The measure is called the distributional sensitivity measure(DSM) and explicitly derived from the definition of the Kullback's discrimination information. The DSM is applied to three typical discrimination information. The DSM is applied to three typical cases of input distributional changes: 1) Uncertainty is completely eliminated, 2) Uncertainty range is increased by a factor of 10, and 3) Type of distribution is changed. For all three cases of application, the DSM-based importance ranking agrees very well with the observed changes of output distribution while other statistical parameters are shown to be insensitive.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.267-273
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• 2011

Since 'The Act on Private Investment of The Infrastructure' was established in 1994, private investment as well as government's investment in transport infrastructure has been active. However investment in transport infrastructure has more risks than others' due to uncertainty both in traffic volume and in construction cost. In the current appraisal procedure of deciding transportation infrastructure investment, instead of risk management, the sensitivity analysis considering only the changes of benefit, cost and social discount rate which are main factor affecting economic feasibility is carried out. Therefore the uncertainty of various factors affecting demand, cost and benefit are not considered in feasibility study. In this study the problems in current investment appraisal system were reviewed. Using Delphi technique the major factors which have high uncertainty in feasibility study were surveyed and then improvement plan was suggested in the respective of classic 4 step demand forecasting method. The range estimation technique was also mentioned to deal with the uncertainty of the future.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.177-193
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• 2003

This paper examines empirically if the increase of funding uncertainty in government supported R&D institutes(GSRIs) in Korean cause managers to use more effective management control practices. Recently government introduced a new government R&D budget management system, based on competition, named PBS(Project Base System). Government requires GSRIs to be self-supporting and compete for funding from government. The introduction of new budget management system named PBS, has resulted in the increase of funding uncertainty in GSRIs. According to institutional theory, government organizations gain legitimacy by conforming to external expectations regarding management control practices, In contrast, contingency theory proposes that management control practices are driven by the fit between the technical features of the environment and the management control practices. The contingency literature provides that one external factor expected to motivate government managers to use more efficient control practices is the presence of competition and funding uncertainty. This paper use both theoretical perspective to develop hypotheses and examine the influence of funding environment on management control practices. Results show that the more institutionalized environment, the more managers in GSRIs rely on bureaucratic mode of control for conforming to external requirements, and the greater the funding uncertainty, the more managers use results and personal modes of control to improve research team performance.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.1-17
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• 2020

Purpose - Since China has been South Korea's biggest export destination, uncertainty shocks originating from it would influence South Korea's exports. This paper evaluates the effects of China's economic policy uncertainty on Korea's exports to explore the transmission channels. Design/methodology - Incorporating endogeneities and nonlinearities, this study employs a quarterly time-varying parameters vector autoregressive model to investigate the relationships between China's economic policy uncertainty and Korea's exports, where the overparameterization due to time-varying specifications is overcome by a novel stochastic model specification search framework. According to previous theoretical studies, this paper assesses two channels, demand shock channel and exchange rate channel, through which foreign uncertainty affects Korea's exports. This paper identifies the primary drivers of Korea's aggregate exports and analyzes the rationales for the time-variant impacts of China's economic policy uncertainty on Korea's exports to China. Findings - Our empirical results reveal that Korea's aggregate exports are less responsive to China's economic policy uncertainty shocks and significantly move together with global demand. In contrast, its bilateral exports to China are highly responsive in a negative and time-variant way. Moreover, Chinese investment is an important channel through which China's economic policy uncertainty affects Korea's exports to China after 2010. Further, the time-variant effects of China's economic policy uncertainty on Korea's exports to China are related to changes in China's foreign trade policies, global economic conditions, and China's degree of economic freedom. Originality/value - Few previous studies touch the effects of external uncertainty shocks on South Korea's exports. This paper attempts to fill this gap and explicitly investigate the impacts of China's economic policy uncertainty on Korea's exports from a time-varying perspective. As Korea is an export-oriented economy, this study provides insights for the Korean government to understand the transmissions of external uncertainty better.

• Journal of the Korean Society for information Management
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.287-309
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• 2006

While numerous studies have suggested the significance of uncertainty during the process of information-seeking, less research has investigated user uncertainty in the actual search process using a real system. This study investigated user perceptions of uncertainty in the process of the selection of Web search terms in the real information-seeking process. The subjects at the doctoral or post-doctoral level were limited to the discipline of science in order to understand user perceptions in this field. The findings revealed various dimensions, types, and incidents of uncertainty. The typology of uncertainty facilitated an understanding of the subjects' information-seeking context by identifying various aspects of the context that constituted the subjects' uncertainty The identification of two principal origins of uncertainty based on the different types of uncertainty generated implications to improve information systems and services.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2022.06a
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• pp.238-244
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• 2022

Civil projects are associated with many uncertainties because they involve a long duration, many resources, a large area, and many supply chains. Therefore, the price of a civil project is not simply proportional to the quantity and unit price of the item but has a variable value, including uncertainty risk. This study investigates the influence of the uncertainty factors in the pre-bid clarification document on bid price formation during the project bidding phase. To this end, civil projects from the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) were used as research data. This study randomly selected fifty sample data from each of twelve counties from 2008-to 2020: six hundred. The authors observed that each project sample had 0 to n query cases due to uncertainty. Then, this study examined the project uncertainty cases and categorized them into the following four uncertainty factors: 'conflict' (UF1), 'impossibility' (UF2), 'lack' (UF3), and 'missing' (UF4). Under the extracting process, the cases are classified into four uncertainty factors. With the project not containing any uncertainty factors as a control group, the project containing these uncertainty factors was designated as an experimental group. After comparing the bidder's price, the experimental group's bid price was higher than the control group's. This result suggests that uncertainty factors in bid documents induce bidders to set a high bid price as a defense against uncertainty.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.45 no.3
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• pp.533-547
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• 2017

Purpose: This study proposes the main sources of uncertainty and uncertainty analysis of a measurement system of insensitive munitions tests. Methods: We established the mathematical model for calculating measurement uncertainty of insensitive munitions tests, conducted experiments for calculating uncertainties of dynamic sensitivity and overshoot value, and estimated the distributions of uncertainty factors. Results: The measurement uncertainty calculation methods are presented, which include experimental data processing methods for calculating uncertainties of dynamic sensitivity and overshoot value. Conclusion: The measurement of explosion pressure in insensitive munitions tests is an important issue to the reporting test results and classifying reaction types. The more efforts to ensure the reliability of the insensitive munitions tests results are required.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.46-50
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• 2013

In insurance statistics, the sum of homogeneous insurance is often needed. The sum is called individual risk model which is a fundamental model in risk analysis for insurance. This paper first presents an individual risk model based on the uncertainty theory. Then its uncertainty distribution is provided. Finally, its arithmetic is shown by a numerical example.

• Management Science and Financial Engineering
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.35-53
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• 2007

We consider a(worst-case) robust optimization version of the Economic Order Quantity(EOQ) model. Order setup costs and inventory carrying costs are assumed to have uncertainty in their values, and the uncertainty description of the two parameters is supposed to be given by an ellipsoidal representation. A genetic algorithm combined with Monte Carlo simulation is proposed to approximate the ellipsoidal representation. The objective function of the model under ellipsoidal uncertainty description is derived, and the resulting problem is solved by another genetic algorithm. Computational test results are presented to show the performance of the proposed method.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.6
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• pp.231-243
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• 2022

The objective of this study is to analyze the impact of conservative financial reporting on investment during uncertainty. It was assumed that during uncertainty conservative financial reporting can play an important role to improve investment decision-making. For our analysis, data sets from 2005-2020 of nonfinancial companies are used. To measure the impact of conservative financial reporting in the non-financial sector of Pakistan, Khan and Watts' (2009) model is applied. "Prospector" and "Defender" Business strategy is applied for measuring firm-level uncertainty. Investment is measured by adding the change in fixed assets (property, plant, and equipment). To check the robustness of conservative financial reporting, Givoly and Hayn's (2000) Negative Accruals measure is applied. To measure the robustness of uncertainty, environmental scanning and alertness technique is applied. According to environmental scanning and alertness technique, companies are divided into two groups named 'inert' and 'alert'. 'Inert' are those firms that are not scanning their environment, and 'alert' are those firms who continuously analyze their environment. The empirical estimations support our hypothesis. The empirical findings provide the proof that in the wake of uncertainty conservative financial reporting may facilitate to take optimal investment decisions in the developing economy of Pakistan. Our results provide critical and practical implications for investors, researchers, and standard setters.