• Title/Summary/Keyword: Make-to-forecast

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A study on time series linkage in the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (가계동향조사 지출부문 시계열 연계 방안에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sihyeon;Seong, Byeongchan;Choi, Young-Geun;Yeo, In-kwon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.553-568
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    • 2022
  • The Household Income and Expenditure Survey is a representative survey of Statistics Korea, which aims to measure and analyze national income and consumption levels and their changes by understanding the current state of household balances. Recently, the disconnection problem in these time series caused by the large-scale reorganization of the survey methods in 2017 and 2019 has become an issue. In this study, we model the characteristics of the time series in the Household Income and Expenditure Survey up to 2016, and use the modeling to compute forecasts for linking the expenditures in 2017 and 2018. In order to evenly reflect the characteristics across all expenditure item series and to reduce the impact of a specific forecast model, we synthesize a total of 8 models such as regression models, time series models, and machine learning techniques. In particular, the noteworthy aspect of this study is that it improves the forecast by using the optimal combination technique that can exactly reflect the hierarchical structure of the Household Income and Expenditure Survey without loss of information as in the top-down or bottom-up methods. As a result of applying the proposed method to forecast expenditure series from 2017 to 2019, it contributed to the recovery of time series linkage and improved the forecast. In addition, it was confirmed that the hierarchical time series forecasts by the optimal combination method make linkage results closer to the actual survey series.

A Study on the Prototyping for Developing Computer Game (컴퓨터게임 제작을 위한 프로토타입에 관한 연구)

  • Tak, Hwa-Eun;Kim, Sung-Kon
    • Archives of design research
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.129-140
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    • 2004
  • The process of game development is contained of many steps that is hard to forecast success or failure. In order to develop successful game, the development period should be shorter, which could reduce development cost. In order to reduce development period and cost, it is needed to make a communication among planners, programmers, graphic designers and investors lively with a prototype as a communication tool. In this study, the concrete examples are demonstrated how to use prototypes as a tool for communication and feedback of team members, in the process of game development. This paper explains the characteristics of various types of prototypes according to types of game contents. This paper demonstrated two types of prototype according to development stage, one type is a prototype to gather feedback in the planning stage, the other is a prototype to make team members cooperate and communicate in the stage of production stage.

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Implementation of IS-95C Multimedia Terminal using GPS (GPS 연동 IS-95C 멀티미디어 단말기 구현)

  • 하재승
    • Journal of the Korea Computer Industry Society
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    • v.2 no.8
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    • pp.1133-1138
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    • 2001
  • In this paper, we implemented that MMT(Multimedia Terminal) demonstrates spot news, weather forecast, sports news and cultural news employed CDMA mobile communication networks. The MMT displays mobile pictures/joint pictures/on screen ad and to make known Bus stop or Mobile stations. The MMT gives driver's and passenger's safety and valuable information for one's use GPS satellites. We verified to make real time mobile picture transfer use of CDMA2000 1×(IS-95C) network and development the scheduler control each module. This system tested on vehicle that train and bus. MMT was implemented high reliability and stability by the embedded system. The mobile terminal shows reliable data transfer rate about 74Kbps on IS-95C.

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Improving Performance of HPC Clusters by Including Non-Dedicated Nodes on a LAN (LAN상의 비전용 노드를 포함한 HPC 클러스터의 확장에 의한 성능 향상)

  • Park, Pil-Seong
    • Journal of Information Technology Services
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.209-219
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    • 2008
  • Recently the number of Internet firms providing useful information like weather forecast data is growing. However most of such information is not prepared in accordance with customers' demand, resulting in relatively low customer satisfaction. To upgrade the service quality, it is recommended to devise a system for customers to get involved in the process of service production, which normally requires a huge investment on supporting computer systems like clusters. In this paper, as a way to cut down the budget for computer systems but to improve the performance, we extend the HPC cluster system to include other Internet servers working independently on the same LAN, to make use of their idle times. We also deal with some issues resulting from the extension, like the security problem and a possible deadlock caused by overload on some non-dedicated nodes. At the end, we apply the technique in the solution of some 2D grid problem.

A Comparative Study of the Rainfall Intensity Between Ground Rain Gauge and Weather Radar (지상우량계와 기상레이더 강우강도의 비교연구)

  • Ryu, Chan-Su;Kang, In-Sook;Lim, Jae-Hwan
    • Journal of Integrative Natural Science
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    • v.4 no.3
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    • pp.229-237
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    • 2011
  • Today they use a weather radar with spatially high resolution in predicting rainfall intensity and utilizing the information for super short-range forecast in order to make predictions of such severe meteorological phenomena as heavy rainfall and snow. For a weather radar, they use the Z-R relation between the reflectivity factor(Z) and rainfall intensity(R) by rainfall particles in the atmosphere in order to estimate intensity. Most used among the various Z-R relation is $Z=200R^{1.6}$ applied to stratiform rain. It's also used to estimate basic rainfall intensity of a weather radar run by the weather center. This study set out to compare rainfall intensity between the reflectivity of a weather radar and the ground rainfall of ASOS(Automatic Surface Observation System) by analyzing many different cases of heavy rain, analyze the errors of different weather radars and identify their problems, and investigate their applicability to nowcasting in case of severe weather.

Operating Simulation of RPS using DEVS W/S in Web Service Environment

  • Cho, Kyu-Cheol
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.21 no.12
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    • pp.107-114
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    • 2016
  • Web system helps high-performance processing for big-data analysis and practical use to make various information using IT resources. The government have started the RPS system in 2012. The system invigorates the electricity production as using renewable energy equipment. The government operates system gathered big-data with various related information system data and the system users are distributed geographically. The companies have to fulfill the system, are available to purchase the REC to other electricity generation company sellers to procure REC for their duty volumes. The REC market operates single auction methods with users a competitive price. But the price have the large variation with various user trading strategy and sellers situations. This papler proposed RPS system modeling and simulation in web environment that is modeled in geographically distributed computing environment for web user with DEVS W/S. Web simulation system base on web service helps to analysis correlation and variables that act on trading price and volume within RPS big-data and the analysis can be forecast REC price.

Studies on Analysis of Combining Ability in the Mulberry Silkworm, Bombyx mori L.

  • Singh, Ravindra;Rao, D.Raghavendra;Kariappa, B.K.;Premalatha, V.;Dandin, S.B.
    • International Journal of Industrial Entomology and Biomaterials
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.107-113
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    • 2003
  • Analysis of combining ability is a widely used biometrical tool to select promising parents and hybrids, to determine the kinds and relative magnitudes of genetic variability among hybrids as well as to forecast yield attributes in early breeding generations both in plants and animals. Various statistical approaches like Jinks and Hayman (1953), Griffing (1956), Kempthorne (1957) etc. have been extensively applied in plants. These approaches have also been tried in the mulberry silkworm, Bombyx mori L. In the present review, an attempt has been made to collect most of the studies carried out on combining ability in silkworm at one place and make it available to the scientists engaged in sericultural research.

Web Service System for GIS-based Storm-surge Visualization (GIS기반 폭풍해일 시각화를 통한 웹 서비스 시스템 구축)

  • Kim, Jin-Ah;Park, K.S.;Kwon, Jae-Il
    • 한국HCI학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2009.02a
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    • pp.611-614
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    • 2009
  • Understanding the severity of the typhoon-induced storm-surge helps in planning reaction and in preventing further disaster. Natural disasters due to the storm-surge are predictable from accurate observations and forecasts from numerical simulations. What we can do is to make intelligent effort to minimize the loss due to the disaster to the most extent with the technology of early warning, forecast and prevention activity. In this paper, we propose the design of GIS-based Web Service System to visualize the time-varying storm-surge's height and wind field data effectively with 3 different kinds of resolution for predict and prevent storm-surge disasters. This system is one of the efforts to provide the storm-surge forecast service to general public and share two-way more helpful information to coastal resident through the Internet.

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A Study on the Current State and Policies for Standardization on Electronic Commerce (전자상거래 표준화 현황 및 정책 분석에 관한 연구)

  • 박윤정;임춘성;윤용기
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.23-44
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    • 2003
  • It is needed to search the electronic commerce standardization and to analysis its policies to meet the international situations strategically and forecast the technology surroundings for electronic commerce. This study aims at searching the current state of electronic commerce standardization and analyzing policies on electronic commerce by the driving subject, that is, government and private organization, major countries, and standard classifications of electronic commerce technologies such as e-documents, e-catalog, e-payment, and e-process. The government and private organizations get information for the current state and policies for standardization on electronic commerce and put them practical use to make policies and strategy applications.

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A Study on Survey for Technology Forecasting using Delphi in Animal Science and Veterinary Medicine (축산 . 수의분야의 델파이 기술예측조사에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, K.T.;Paik, I.K.;Cho, Y.W.;Lee, J.I.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.479-494
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    • 2004
  • The study was designed to forecast and derive future core technologies using Delphi method for Korean livestock industry. The technologies will make livestock industJy a core and strategic industry that has high value-added sector in 21 century. Questions were given to specialists of each technology in order to survey importance, realization time. level of R&D in Korea and foremost countries, leading group of R&D, effective policy, etc. for each technology. The target of the survey for Delphi is confined to specialists in the area of Animal Science and Veterinary Medicine. 90 core technologies were derived and 62 specialists answered the questionnaire.