• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.42 no.1 s.139
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• pp.57-63
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• 2005

This paper introduces basic research of optimum routing assessment system as voyage support purpose which can obtain safe and efficient route. In view point of safety, the prediction of ship motion should be evaluated in the condition of rough weather This part includes general seakeeping estimation based on 3 dimensional panel method and parametric roil prediction. For increasing voyage efficiency, ETA(Estimated Time of Arrival) and fuel consumption should be calculated considering speed reduction and power increase due to wave effects based on added resistance calculation and ship performance characteristics. Basically, the weather forecast is assumed to be prepared previously to operate this system. The idea of these factors in this system will be helpful to escape from dangerous voyage situation by wave conditions and to make optimum route planning based on ETA and fuel consumption.

• Journal of Agricultural Extension & Community Development
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.33-48
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• 2017

Returning to farming and rural village is one of the most hot social issues in Korea. Therefore, the government has tried to make up a policy program, which aims to support for the urban residents to get appropriate informations and to make right decisions about returning to farming and rural village. For the sparsely populated rural communities, this phenomena are some good opportunities for their sustainable development. The government needs the resasonale prospect on returning to farming and rural village, because their policy program should be made on the basis sound data and information. But, with the current data about returning to farming in Korea, it is impossible to make an econometrical model that can forecast the population who will return to farming and rural village. So, we tried a delphi method to sketch the future returning to farming and rural village. The delphi panels gave us some prospects on the issues. They anticipated that the population of returning to farming will increase for the next five years. And, they recommended some policy directions.

• Journal of Service Research and Studies
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• v.6 no.4
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• pp.75-85
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• 2016

Coal can be divided into thermal coal and coking coal. The price of thermal coal is basically affected by demand and supply. However, many other factors with regard to economic condition such as exchange rate, economy growth rate also make an influence on the price. This study is targeted to develop a forecast model for thermal coal price by using System Dynamics Method. System dynamics provides results that better reflect the real world by employing an inter-dependent system of variables. This study found out that 8 factors have important influence on the thermal coal price. Most of the data of the variables were acquired from the Bloomberg Database. The period extends to 2 years and 4 months, from May of 2011 to August of 2013. The causal relations among the variables were acquired by regression analysis

• Atmosphere
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.391-402
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• 2014

This study investigated the performances of precipitable water vapor (PWV) retrieval from the sets of ground global positioning system (GPS) signals, each of which had different length of observing-session duration, for the purpose of obtaining as short session duration as possible that is required at the least for appropriate retrieval of the PWV for meteorological usage. The shorter duration is highly desirable to make the most use of the GPS instrument on board the mobile observation vehicle making measurements place by place. First, using Bernese 5.0 software the PWV retrieval was conducted with the data sets of GPS signals archived continuously in 30 seconds interval during 2-month period of January and February, 2012 at Bukgangneung site. Each of the PWVs produced independently using different session durations was compared to that of radio-sonde launched at the same GPS location, a Bukgangneung site. Second, the same procedure was done using the data sets obtained from the mobile observation vehicle that was operating at Boseong area in Jeonnam province during Changma observation campaign in 2013, and the results were compared to that at Bukgangneung site. The results showed that as the observing-session duration increased the retrieval errors decreased with the dramatic change happening between 3 and 4 hours of the duration. On average, the root mean square error (RMSE) of the retrieved PWV was around 1 mm for the durations of greater than 4 hours. The results at both the Bukgangneung (fixed site) and Boseong (mobile vehicle) seemed to be fairly comparable with each other. From this study it is believed that at least 4 hours of observing-session duration is needed for the retrieval of PWV from the ground GPS for meteorological usage using Bernese 5.0 software.

• IE interfaces
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.269-281
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• 2004

How to maintain the optimal electric power generation mix is one of the important problems in electric power industry. The objective of this study is to develop a computer model which can be used to forecast the investment in power generation unit by the plant owners after restructuring of electric power industry. Restructuring of electric power industry will make difference in decision making process of investment in power generation unit. After Privatiazation of Power Industry, Gencos will think that profit is the most important factor among all others attracting the investment in the industry. Coal power generation is better than LNG CCGT in terms of profit. However, many studies show that LNG CCGT will be main electric power generation source because the rest of factors other than profit in LNG CCGT are superior than Coal power generation. The impacts of the various government policies can be analyzed using the computer model, thus the government can formulate effective policies for achieving the desired electric power generation mix.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 1996.10a
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• pp.139-145
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• 1996

A forecast on the past output data sets of small bar steels is very important information to make a decision on the future production quantities. In many cases, however, it has been mainly determined by experience (or rule of thumb). In this paper, past basic data sets of each small bar steels are statistically analyzed by some graphical and statistical forecasting methods. This work is mainly done by SAS. Among various quantitative forecasting methods in SAS, STEPAR forecasting method was best performed to the above data sets. By the method, the future production quantities of each small bar steels are forecasted. As a result of this statistical analysis, 95% confidence intervals for future forecast quantities are very wide. To improve this problem, a suitable systematic database system, integrated management system of demand-production-inventory and integrated computer system should be required.

• IE interfaces
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.205-220
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• 2005

This study presents a web log analysis model for e-CRM, which combines the on-line customer's purchasing pattern data and transaction data between companies in B2B environment of make-to-order company. With this study, the customer evaluation and the customer subdivision are available. We can forecast the estimate demands with periodical products sales records. Also, the purchasing rate per each product, the purchasing intention rate, and the purchasing rate per companies can be used as the basic data for the strategy for receiving the orders in future. These measures are used to evaluate the business strategy, the quality ability on products, the customer's demands, the benefits of customer and the customer's loyalty. And it is used to evaluate the customer's purchasing patterns, the response analysis, the customer's secession rate, the earning rate, and the customer's needs. With this, we can satisfy various customers' demands, therefore, we can multiply the company's benefits. And we presents case of the 'H' company, which has the make-to-order manufacture environment, in order to verify the effect of the proposal system.

• Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing Administration
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.237-251
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• 1999

The purpose of this study is to suggest successful strategies through which the effect of the information system of a hospital can be forecasted at the nursing department. In order to set up successful strategies, in the first place, both the methods of CSF(Critical Success Factor: Rockart, 1979) and ULD(User-Led Development) method and the method suggested by the Korea Productivity Center were applied. In order to measure the improvement of nursing productivity, the Dissonance theory was used. The data were collected from 100 employees serving at the clinic department of Kwangju Patriots' and Veterans' Hospital from July 4 to July 25, 1998 with reference to all 222 cases, for sampling work; then the part of the efficiency of the treatment or management of hospital business - simplification of the process of the treatment of hospital business and reduction of the time of the treatment of hospital business were measured; and in order to forecast organizational behavior, 100 cases of organization behavior were analysed, based on the well structured, questionnaires. In order to forecast the user's organizational behavior, a tool(Ronald. 1988; Stephen, 1982: Senn, 1992: Olsen, 1980: Anderson, 1988: Kim. 1992: Cho. 1994) to measure the extent or degree of the user's recognition or understanding whose reliability coefficient is 0.63 was used: and regarding the items expected by the users concerning the convenience of the system, a tool created by Bernadett, Szajna and Richard W. Scamell(1993) whose reliability coefficient is 0.88 was used. And finally, those data were analysed, utilizing the statistical package of SPSS/PC 6.0. successful strategies are suggested as follows: 1. In order that the Kwangju Patriots' and Veterans' Hospital's purpose can be successful through its strategic, information system, the quality of its services should be elevated. and for elevating the quality of medical services, elevation of the quality of medical expertism or specialty is an important factor in determining such quality. 2. In order to make the hospital information system to be successful, the hospital's top manager should participate in the effort making it successful with helping hands of the members or personnel of the hospital. 3. In order to make users participate in the hospital information system, it is prerequisite that all nurses in a hospital should voluntarily participate in the system 4. In order to reduce the expense, the time in coping with business per duty should be reduced by 10${\sim}$33.23%. The time of the direct nursing care which added value is relatively high should be elongated in order to elevate the quality of hospital services. 5. Since the introduction and spread of the hospital information system are influenced by the duration in the experience of computer use, the user of the hospital information system should have a plan to receive well-planned computer education. Finally it is suggested that the forecast of long-term productivity through a review of the user's expectation of the system should be inspected and tested through continuous studies of its effectiveness.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.131-140
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• 2013

Econometric forecast models based on past time-series data have been applied to a wide variety of applications due to their advantages in short-term point estimating. These models are particularly used in predicting the impact of governmental research and development (R&D) programs because program managers should assert their feasibility due to R&D program's huge amount of budget. The construction governmental R&D programs, however, separately make an investment by dividing total budget into five sub-business area. It make R&D program managers difficult to understand how R&D programs affect the whole system including economy because they are restricted with regard to many dependent and dynamic variables. In this regard, system dynamics (SD) model provides an analytic solution for complex, nonlinear, and dynamic systems such as the impacts of R&D programs by focusing on interactions among variables and understanding their structures. This research, therefore, developed SD model to capture the different impacts of five construction R&D sub-business by considering different characteristics of sub-business area. To overcome the SD's disadvantages in point estimating, this research also proposed the method for constructing quantitative forecasting model using qualitative data. Understanding the different characteristics of each construction R&D sub-business can support R&D program managers to demonstrate their feasibility of capital investment.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2001.10a
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• pp.177-186
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• 2001

Based upon the previous experiences and typical oases of typhoon evasion fur ships as well as tile achievement in scientific research in this detrain, we developed the Intelligent Typhoon Evasion System for Ships. It consists of five subsystems, including electronic charts, ship movement management, typhoon information query and automatic plotting, real-time calculation of ship-typhoon situation, intelligent typhoon evasion decision making. With the synthetical application of analogy theory, synoptic chart, satellite cloud picture analysis, typhoon digital forecast and other relevant technologies, we leave established the typhoon evasion data bases. model bases and knowledge bases, which make it possible to automatically track the ships and typhoon paths. The system can realize ship-typhoon situation analysis, risk levee assessment, typhoon paths correction and course synoptic forecast, and intelligent typhoon evasion decision making.