• Title/Summary/Keyword: Magnitude of internal variability

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Regional Characteristics of Global Warming: Linear Projection for the Timing of Unprecedented Climate (지구온난화의 지역적 특성: 전례 없는 기후 시기에 대한 선형 전망)

  • SHIN, HO-JEONG;JANG, CHAN JOO
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.49-57
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    • 2016
  • Even if an external forcing that will drive a climate change is given uniformly over the globe, the corresponding climate change and the feedbacks by the climate system differ by region. Thus the detection of global warming signal has been made on a regional scale as well as on a global average against the internal variabilities and other noises involved in the climate change. The purpose of this study is to estimate a timing of unprecedented climate due to global warming and to analyze the regional differences in the estimated results. For this purpose, unlike previous studies that used climate simulation data, we used an observational dataset to estimate a magnitude of internal variability and a future temperature change. We calculated a linear trend in surface temperature using a historical temperature record from 1880 to 2014 and a magnitude of internal variability as the largest temperature displacement from the linear trend. A timing of unprecedented climate was defined as the first year when a predicted minimum temperature exceeds the maximum temperature record in a historical data and remains as such since then. Presumed that the linear trend and the maximum displacement will be maintained in the future, an unprecedented climate over the land would come within 200 years from now in the western area of Africa, the low latitudes including India and the southern part of Arabian Peninsula in Eurasia, the high latitudes including Greenland and the mid-western part of Canada in North America, the low latitudes including Amazon in South America, the areas surrounding the Ross Sea in Antarctica, and parts of East Asia including Korean Peninsula. On the other hand, an unprecedented climate would come later after 400 years in the high latitudes of Eurasia including the northern Europe, the middle and southern parts of North America including the U.S.A. and Mexico. For the ocean, an unprecedented climate would come within 200 years over the Indian Ocean, the middle latitudes of the North Atlantic and the South Atlantic, parts of the Southern Ocean, the Antarctic Ross Sea, and parts of the Arctic Sea. In the meantime, an unprecedented climate would come even after thousands of years over some other regions of ocean including the eastern tropical Pacific and the North Pacific middle latitudes where an internal variability is large. In summary, spatial pattern in timing of unprecedented climate are different for each continent. For the ocean, it is highly affected by large internal variability except for the high-latitude regions with a significant warming trend. As such, a timing of an unprecedented climate would not be uniform over the globe but considerably different by region. Our results suggest that it is necessary to consider an internal variability as well as a regional warming rate when planning a climate change mitigation and adaption policy.

Characterization of Particulates Containing Naturally Occurring Radioactive Materials in Phosphate Processing Facility (인광석 취급 산업체에서 발생하는 천연방사성물질 함유 입자의 특성 평가)

  • Lim, HaYan;Choi, Won Chul;Kim, Kwang Pyo
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.7-13
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    • 2014
  • Phosphate rock, phosphogypsum, and products in phosphate processing facility contain naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM). Therefore, they may give rise to enhanced radiation dose to workers due to inhalation of airborne particulates. Internal dose due to particle inhalation varies depending on particle properties. The objective of the present study was to characterize particle properties at the largest phosphate processing facility in Korea. A cascade impactor was employed to sample airborne particulates at various processing areas in the plant. The collected samples were used for characterization of particle size distribution, particle concentration in the air, and shape analysis. Aerodynamic diameters of airborne particulates ranged 0.03-100 ${\mu}m$ with the highest concentration at the particle size range of 4.7-5.8 ${\mu}m$ (geometric mean = 5.22 ${\mu}m$) or 5.8-9.0 ${\mu}m$ (geometric mean = 7.22 ${\mu}m$). Particle concentrations in the air varied widely by sampling area up to more than two orders of magnitude. The large variation resulted from the variability of mechanical operations and building ventilations. The airborne particulates appeared as spheroids or rough spherical fragments across all sampling areas and sampled size intervals. Average mass densities of phosphate rocks, phosphogypsums, and fertilizers were 3.1-3.4, 2.1-2.6, and 1.7 $gcm^{-3}$, respectively. Radioactivity concentration of uranium series in phosphate rocks varied with country of origin, ranging 94-866 $Bqkg^{-1}$. Among the uranium series, uranium was mostly concentrated on products, including phosphoric acid or fertilizers whereas radium was concentrated on byproducts or phosphogypsum. No significant radioactivity of $^{226}Ra$ and $^{228}Ra$ were found in fertilizer. However, $^{40}K$ concentration in fertilizer was up to 5,000 Bq $g^{-1}$. The database established in this study can be used for the accurate risk assessment of workers due to inhalation of airborne particles containing NORM. In addition, the findings can be used as a basic data for development of safety standard and guide and for practical radiation safety management at the facility.