• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제7권9호
• /
• pp.251-261
• /
• 2020

The paper examines the role of some determinants of economics, politics and institutions on the budget deficit volatility in some countries of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) such as Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam. The paper uses the fixed effects model (FEM) and the random effects model (REM) to investigate panel data of these countries in the period of 1990-2018. Moreover, the study also explores ordinary least square (OLS) to analyze time-series data for each country in the same period to make comparison among them. The economic data is collected from international financial statistics and world development indicators. The data on political variables are collected from International Country Risk Data Guide (ICRG). The empirical results both confirm that corruption and political stability are important indicators of budget deficit. Besides, the paper suggests authorities should pay more attention on improving the institutional setup of the economy in order to avoid high and unstable deficit. The findings offer new insight on the budget deficit in essence and suggest that the most important thing need to be done ahead is to strongly implement anti-corruption actions. By doing so, the status of budget deficit would be remarkably improved immediately.

• Asian Journal of Business Environment
• /
• 제7권4호
• /
• pp.5-9
• /
• 2017

Purpose - Many countries rely on currency depreciation or debt-financed government spending to stimulate their economies. Currency depreciation tends to increase net exports and aggregate demand but reduce short-run aggregate supply due to higher import costs. Debt-financed government spending increases aggregate demand, but the crowding-out effect due to a higher real interest rate may reduce private spending and aggregate demand. Therefore, the net impact of currency depreciation or debt-financed government spending on equilibrium real GDP is unclear. Research design, data, and methodology - This paper examines potential impacts of real depreciation of the ringgit, more government debt as a percent of GDP and other relevant macroeconomic variables on aggregate output in Malaysia. Results - Applying the AD/AS model, this paper finds that aggregate output in Malaysia is positively associated with real appreciation during 2005.Q3-2010.Q3, real depreciation during 2010.Q4-2016.Q1, the debt-to-GDP ratio and the real stock price, negatively affected by the real lending rate and inflation expectations, and is not influenced by the real oil price. Conclusions - Real depreciation of the ringgit after 2010. Q3 or sustainable expansionary fiscal policy would be beneficial to the economy.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제7권11호
• /
• pp.657-668
• /
• 2020

This paper investigates the effect of market structure, including some bank-specific variables and macroeconomic conditions, on the profitability of Indonesian Islamic rural banks. We apply the structure conduct performance (SCP) and the relative market power (RMP) hypothesis. Panel data comprising 142 Islamic rural banks from 2013Q1 to 2018Q4 are employed. This study breaks them apart, associated with the level of economic development consisting of Java as developed regions and outside Java as less developed regions. This study employs static and dynamic panel regression. The GMM method, however, is appropriate because of the dynamic nature of profitability. Our results confirm the SCP hypothesis and fail to support the RMP hypothesis. The higher market concentration allows Islamic rural banks to generate a significantly higher profit by conducting a collusive strategy. More interestingly, the collusive behavior may result in more profit for Islamic rural banks located in the developed regions than those in less developed regions. Evidence also highlights the importance of operating efficiency and impaired financing on profitability. High operating efficiency and low impaired financing can improve profit. Our results suggest that capitalizing market share by improving efficiency and optimizing financing contracts between PLS and non-PLS contracts also improve profit.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제7권11호
• /
• pp.147-156
• /
• 2020

This study aims to analyze the effect of public spending, macroeconomic variables, and BPK opinion on economic growth. This study is motivated by the inequality of fiscal policy effectiveness between regions in Indonesia in influencing the economic growth of different regions, the ability of local governments to attract foreign investors, and the transparency of regional financial management in designing development programs to encourage regional economic growth. The analytical tool in this study is a dynamic panel regression model with data from 2008 to 2017. The results of this study show that, in the short term, the population affects regional economic growth, while in the long term, the economic growth is affected by the number of people, the poor, General Allocation Fund, health budget, foreign investment and BPK opinion. The findings of this study are that in the long term the General Allocation Fund becomes an obstacle to economic growth, this is because the general allocation funds is widely used to cover the lack of funds for routine regional activities, thereby reducing activities for development programs. Another research finding is that fiscal policies carried out by local governments make a small and ineffective contribution to promoting economic growth.

• 동아시아경상학회지
• /
• 제4권4호
• /
• pp.1-7
• /
• 2016

This paper has studied the impacts of the exchange rate, government debt as a percent of GDP and other relevant macroeconomic variables on aggregate output in the Philippines. A simultaneous-equation model consisting of aggregate demand and short-run aggregate supply is applied. The dummy variable technique is employed to detect whether the slope and intercept of the real effective exchange rate may have changed. Real depreciation during 1998.Q1 - 2006.Q3, real appreciation during 2006.Q4 - 2016.Q1, a lower domestic debt as a percent of GDP, a lower real interest rate, a higher stock price or a higher lagged real oil price would raise aggregate output. Recent trends of real peso appreciation, declining domestic debt as a percent of GDP, lower real interest rates, and rising stock prices are in line with the empirical results and would promote economic growth. The authorities may need to continue to pursue fiscal prudence and maintain a stronger peso as the positive effect of real appreciation dominates its negative effect in recent years.

• 재무관리연구
• /
• 제16권2호
• /
• pp.179-213
• /
• 1999

본 연구에서는 국내 주식시장에서 주식수익률의 횡단면 차이에 유의적인 설명력을 가지는 것으로 나타난 기본적 변수가 시장지수 베타에서는 측정되지 않은 또 다른 가격화된 위험에 대해 유용한 대용변수인지를 규명하였다. 기본적 변수들 중에서 기업규모와 장부/시장가치 비율은 주식수익률의 횡단면 차이를 설명함에 있어 독립적인 효과를 갖는 가장 유의적인 변수였다. 주식수익률의 횡단면 차이에 매우 유의적인 설명력을 가지는 깃으로 나타난 거시경제요인의 요인민감도는 기업규모, 장부/시장가치 비율을 포함시 더 이상 유의적인 설명력을 가지지 못하였다. 소규모, 높은 장부/시장가치 기업은 매우 지속적인 수익성 악화를 겪고 있는 곤경기업이며, 역시 배당감소위험, 레버리지위험 및 미래 현금흐름의 불확실성으로 측정된 기업특성적 위험이 보다 큰 곤경기업이었다. 따라서 이러한 실증결과는 소규모, 높은 장부/시장가치 주식이 대규모, 낮은 장부/시장가치 주식에 비해 높은 수익률을 보이는 원인이 보다 높은 위험에 따른 보상의 결과이며, 규모변수와 장부/시장 가치 비율은 이들 위험에 대한 유용한 대용치라는 '위험에 기초한 가설'을 지지하는 증거로 주장될 수 있다. 기업규모와 장부/시장가치 비율이 시장베타로는 측정되지 않는 주식가격결정에 있어 가격화 된 또 다른 위험을 대리한다면 수익률에 나타난 SIZE, B/M효과는 합리적 가격결정하 APT나 ICAPM과 같은 확장된 CAPM과 모순되지 않는 하나의 증거로 볼 수 있으며, 비록 이들 변수들이 관찰 불가능한 진정한 시장베타에 대한 보다 나은 대용치라고 할지라도 이들 두 변수와 관련된 요인을 포함한 다요인 가격결정모델이 시장지수만을 포함한 단일요인모델에 비해 보다 유용한 모형임을 기대할 수 있다.

• 유통과학연구
• /
• 제17권1호
• /
• pp.21-31
• /
• 2019

Purpose - As the market economy deepens, the issue of social equity caused by income distribution becomes more and more significant. Therefore, this paper attempts to exploit the determinants of income distribution in terms of macroeconomics. Research design, data, and methodology - The data set from 1990 to 2017 will be used to conduct an empirical analysis under a menu of econometric approaches such as vector autoregressive model and impulse response function. The income distribution and other macroeconomic variables such as foreign direct investment and employment will be used to conduct an empirical analysis to explore the determinants of income distribution in terms of macroeconomics. Results - The findings indicate that the income distribution is related with macroeconomics. More specifically, the export, import, GDP and foreign direct investment play a role in deteriorating the income distribution. Conversely, the industrialization, inflation and employment can improve the income distribution. Unfortunately, the inflation and employment do not get through under 5% significant test. Conclusions - Due to that a good income distribution can be beneficial for both a country and an individual, this paper provides a new scope for China's government to improve its income distribution in terms of macroeconomics.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제8권5호
• /
• pp.583-593
• /
• 2021

The objective of this paper is to investigate the impact of economic growth (per capita real GDP), the square of per capita real GDP, energy use, financial development (FD), and foreign direct investment (FDI) on ecological footprint (EF) in the case of Malaysia over the period 1971-2014, by employing the ARDL approach. The long-run results revealed that economic growth has a significant positive impact on the ecological footprint and it implies that the economic growth deteriorates the environmental quality in Malaysia. Conversely, the square of GDP showed a negative and significant impact on the EF in the long run. As the coefficient of GDP in our study is positive and statistically significant while the coefficient of squared GDP is negatively significant, thus, this study supports the presence of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis in the case of Malaysia. Furthermore, the result indicates that FDI has a positive and significant impact on the EF in the long run, which means a rise in FDI will enhance the environmental pollution level. Thus, it confirms the pollution haven hypothesis. Hence, it suggests that Malaysia imposes stricter environmental policies. Further, FDI and FD are causing GDP in Malaysia, but through increasing EF.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제8권5호
• /
• pp.649-656
• /
• 2021

This paper aims to examine the moderating role of bank competition on the effect of liquidity creation on bank capital. We measure bank competition using the Lerner index approach, liquidity creation using the Catfat approach, and bank capital using the capital to total asset ratio approach. This test also considers control variables from bank-specific factors such as Return on Assets, Loan to Deposit Ratio, and Non-Performance Loans as well as macroeconomic factors such as Gross Domestic Product, inflation, and Bank Indonesia interest rates. The sampling technique used was purposive sampling. The data sample obtained was 96 banks from a population of 114 banks in Indonesia which consistently operated during the period 2008-2018. Hypothesis testing uses panel data regression analysis techniques through the first model of the Hayes method. The results show that the negative effect of liquidity creation on bank capital depends on competition. We found that bank competition at any level (low, medium, high) negatively moderates (weakens) the effect of liquidity creation on bank capital in all banks. This finding is consistent with the view that banks may strengthen their capital in response to bank competition which may decrease the level of bank liquidity creation.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제8권4호
• /
• pp.653-663
• /
• 2021

There has been a massive increase in household debt in China, especially in the last five of years. Learning from past experiences, the country needs careful forecasting that may help to form new policies or make amendments to the existing ones. This research paper aims to highlight the impact of the monetary policy on household debt in China. The study covers the time period from 1996 to 2020 The study employs a cointegration test, Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bound Test (ARDL) approach, a Augmented Dicky Fuller (ADF) and PP test (PMG) and time series data. The findings suggest on a quantitative analysis using a time-series model in which gdp per capita and interest rate has a positive impact on household debt whereas, cpi doesn't have significant impact. In a short-term variables relationship, household debt responds more to an increase in income than in the long-term. Also, the impact of interest rate changes on household debt is lower than income in the short run.The research suggests that there should be some restrictions on household debt and consumer financing provided to citizens and for this, appropriate leverage measures should be taken in order for the central bank to sustain robust macroeconomic conditions.