• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.281-288
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• 2021

The purpose of the study is to determine the poverty and distributional effects of the implementation of Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion Law. The Computable General Equilibrium-Top Down Behavioral Microsimulation was used to obtain the effects of the tax reform on macroeconomic and microeconomic levels. Moreover, the Poverty Gap Index, Squared Poverty Gap Index, Foster, Greer, and Thorbecke Measures of Poverty, and Sen-Shorrocks-Thon Index were used to measure the poverty effect of the tax reform. Meanwhile, the Gini Coefficient and SST Gini Coefficient Index were used to measure the distributional effect of the tax reform. The results show that the implementation of the tax reform has resulted in a significant increase in household income and disposable income. Region IV has the highest estimated increase in household income. Meanwhile, Region IV remained to have the lowest household income. Further, the findings of this study suggest that the tax reform resulted in a significant decrease in the magnitude of poor and the number of poor in the Philippines. However, the result of the study also suggests that the effect of tax reform manifests no differences in terms of the poverty gap measured through the Foster, Greer, and Thorbecke poverty index due.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제46권5호
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• pp.449-457
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• 2022

The Port of Busan is currently ranked as the seventh largest container port worldwide in terms of cargo throughput. However, port competition in the Far-East region is fierce. The growth rate of container throughput handled by the port of Busan has recently slowed down. In this study, we analyzed how economic conditions and multiple external shocks could influence cargo throughput and identified potential implications for port business. The aim of this study was to build a model to accurately forecast port throughput using the ARIMA model, which could incorporate external socio-economic shocks, and the VEC model considering causal variables having long-term effects on transshipment cargo. Findings of this study suggest that there are three main areas affecting container throughput in the port of Busan, namely the Russia-Ukraine war, the increased competition for transshipment cargo of Chinese ports, and the weaker growth rate of the Korean economy. Based on the forecast, in order for the Port of the Port of Busan to continue to grow as a logistics hub in Northeast-Asia, policy intervention is necessary to diversify the demand for transshipment cargo and maximize benefits of planned infrastructural investments.

• 농업과학연구
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• 제49권1호
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• pp.77-91
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• 2022

North-South Korea economic integration is progressing slowly given the sensitive responses to changes in internal and external conditions. Nevertheless, advanced discussions focusing on North-South Korean economic cooperation should continue. Given this background, various studies of the economic effects of economic integration between North and South Korea have been conducted, but research on agricultural issues has been limited. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of the economic integration of South and North Korea on the agricultural market. In this study, a simultaneous equation model was constructed using a growth model. Solow's growth accounting approach is used to construct a model for estimating the macroeconomic effect of North-South economic integration. Also, the construction of growth accounting formulas subdivided into South and North Korea as well as agriculture and non-agricultural fields during the construction of the growth model is a major research achievement and differentiates it from previous studies. It is expected that the results of this study will serve as basic information for preparing policy measures to promote integration. However, there are many limitations when estimating the economic effects of North-South agricultural integration and obtaining policy implications given the insufficient available statistical data on agriculture in North Korea and the lack of related studies in the agricultural field. Therefore, it should be noted that there is an inherent problem in that the analysis results vary greatly depending on the assumptions set, as there is inevitably no choice but to rely on many and strong assumptions.

• 경제분석
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• 제26권4호
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• pp.39-64
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• 2020

전형적인 경기변동모형의 경우 노동시간 선택 문제만을 고려하여 노동시장의 주요 거시 변수인 고용과 실업을 명시적으로 설명하지 못하는 어려움이 있다. 본 논문에서는 뉴 케인지안 유형의 가격 경직성 모형에 노동시장의 탐색 및 매칭 마찰을 도입하고 이를 베이지안 방법으로 추정하여 우리나라 고용 및 실업의 움직임을 전체 경기변동의 움직임에 비추어 살펴보았다. 추정 결과 우리나라 실업률은 노동공급 충격과 더불어 노동수요 측면인 기술충격에 의하여 많은 부분 설명되는 것으로 나타났다. 아울러 노동시장 변동에서 기업과 노동자 간의 임금 협상에서 기인하는 협상력 충격도 상당 부분 중요한 것으로 나타났는데 협상력 충격은 경기 및 고용에 부정적인 영향을 미치므로 이에 대하여 주의를 기울일 필요가 있다.

• Asian Journal for Public Opinion Research
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.75-101
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• 2024

This study investigates the variation in anxiety levels across income classes in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia. The research is based on data from nationally representative surveys conducted in 2017 and 2021, and it employs a multilevel mixed-effects ordered logistic model. The unique aspect of this investigation lies in its utilization of the Cantril ladder, a commonly employed tool in public opinion research, to gauge anxiety levels. Participants are prompted to assess their present life circumstances concerning their daily worries and anxieties. The empirical findings provide evidence that individuals in provinces with higher exposures to COVID-19 reported heightened anxiety levels. Furthermore, the results highlight a consistent association between higher household income and lower levels of anxiety. Notably, individuals from the highest income group experienced a substantial decline in anxiety levels during the pandemic. When examining specific income classes, the study reveals heightened anxiety among women in higher-income brackets and among lower-income households residing in urban areas. Furthermore, regarding macroeconomic circumstances, the results illustrate a positive correlation between economic prosperity and anxiety levels among members of low-income households. The study also uncovers a positive connection between income inequality and self-assessed anxiety within upper-middle and high-income brackets.

• 유통과학연구
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• 제10권2호
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• pp.7-17
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• 2012

The aim of this study is to empirically explore micro and macroeconomic factors affecting the Pakistani sugar industries and searching the energy potential of this industry, through the survey of literature. The empirical part has been explored by employing Vector Autoregression (VAR), Granger Causality tests and simultaneous equation models through quarterly data for the period of 1991q2-2008q4. The study also aims to devise policies for the development of sugar industries and identify its growing importance for the energy sector of Pakistan. Empirical tests applied on the domestic prices of sugar, domestic interest rates, and exchange rate, productive capacities of sugar mills, per capita income, world sugar prices on cultivable area and sugar production reveal very useful results. Results reveal an improvement of productive capacity of the sugar mills of Pakistan on account of increasing crushing capacity of this sector. Negative effect of rising wholesale prices on the harvesting area was also observed. Profit earnings of the sugar mills significantly increase with the rise of sugar prices but the system does not exist for the farming community to share the rising prices of sugar. The models indicate positive and significant effect of local prices of sugar on its volume of import. Another of the findings of this study positively relates the local sugar markets with the international prices of sugar. Additionally, the causality tests results reveal exchange rate, harvesting area and overall output of sugarcane to have significant effects on the local prices of sugar. Similarly, import of sugar, interest rate, per capita consumption of sugar, per capita national income and the international prices of sugar also significantly affect currency exchange rate of Pakistani rupee in terms of US$. The study also finds sugar as an essential and basic necessity of the Pakistani consumers. That is why there are no significant income and price effects on the per capita consumption of sugar in Pakistan. All the empirical methods reiterate the relationship of variables. Economic policy makers are recommended to improve governance and management in the production, stock taking, internal and external trading and distribution of sugar in Pakistan using bumper crop policies. Macroeconomic variables such as interest rate, exchange rate per capita income and consumption are closely connected with the production and distribution of sugar in Pakistan. The cartelized role of the sugar industries should also be examined by further studies. There is need to further explore sugar sector of Pakistan with the perspective of energy generation through this sector; cartelized sugar markets in Pakistan and many more other dimensions of this sector. Exact appraisal of sugar industries for energy generation can be done appropriately by the experts from applied sciences.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제23권1호
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• pp.133-156
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• 2014

경제구조를 표현하는 식들로 구성된 모형을 이용하여 도출되는 정량적 분석결과는 성과의 크기를 제시하므로 정책을 평가할 때에 유용하다. 이에 본 논문에서는 해외석유 가스개발사업의 국민경제에 대한 효과를 정량적으로 측정하기 위하여 해외석유 가스개발사업을 반영한 거시경제모형을 구축하고, 이를 이용하여 해외석유 가스개발사업으로부터의 회수액이 GDP, 경상수지, 실업률, 소비자물가, 환율 등에 미치는 효과를 분석하였다. 해외석유 가스개발 사업의 회수액은 우리나라 기업이 해외석유 가스개발사업에 참여하여 획득한 석유 또는 가스를 달러 형태로 금액화한 것이다. 해외석유 가스개발사업을 반영한 거시경제모형은 한국은행의 모형(1997, 2004, 2012)을 이용하여 구축하였으며, 개별 행태방정식의 통계적 적합성과 historical simulation을 통해 모형 전체의 안정성을 확인하였다. 분석결과에 따르면 시간이 경과하면서 해외석유 가스개발사업 회수액의 규모가 커지면서 우리 나라의 거시경제 변수에 미치는 효과의 크기도 커졌다. 변수별로 보면 해외석유 가스개발사업은 경상수지, 실질 GDP, 실업률에 대해서 긍정적인 효과를 유도하였다. 이에 비해서 소비자물가에 대해서는 상승하는, 그리고 환율에 대해서는 하락(원화가치의 평가절상)하는 효과를 보였다. 매해마다 효과의 크기는 다르지만, 2011년 기준으로 해외석유 가스개발사업 회수액은 경상수지를 2.226%, 실질 GDP를 0.401% 증가시키고, 실업률을 0.489%p 감소시켰다. 소비자물가는 0.101% 증가시키고, 원/달러환율은 0.379% 낮추었다.

• 대한교통학회지
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• 제36권2호
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• pp.141-154
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• 2018

지속적으로 증가하는 국제선 항공수요에 대웅하기 위해 지방 광역권에도 새로운 공항 건설 및 기존 공항 확장 계획이 이루어지고 있다. 그러나 기존 항공수요예측은 우리나라 전체 항공수요 또는 주요 도시 간의 항공수요에 대해서 수행되어 왔으며, 지방의 고유 특성을 고려한 지역별 항공수요예측은 많이 이루어지지 않았다. 본 연구에서는 영남권 국제선 항공수요를 대상으로 하였고, 현실적으로 관측하기 어려운 지방 광역권의 고유 특성을 반영할 수 있는 패널 자료를 활용한 fixed-effects model을 최적 모형으로 제안하였다. 모형 검증결과를 살펴보면 패널 자료 분석은 시계열 특성을 가지는 몇 개의 거시 사회경제지표만을 사용한 모형에서 다루기 어려운 허구적 회귀와 미관찰 이질성을 효과적으로 처리하고 있음을 알 수 있다. 다양한 통계적 검증과 적합성 평가를 통해서 본 연구에서 제안한 fixed-effects model이 다른 계량경제 모형들에 비해서 영남권 국제선 수요예측에 있어서 우수함을 증명하였다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권7호
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• pp.55-66
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• 2021

The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship and effects of variables both directly and indirectly (e.g., investment (INV), government expenditure (GE), unemployment rate (UR), economic growth (EG), and income inequality). The analytical phases consist, first, to transform the data using the Log Natural (Ln) method. Second, to check normality and multicollinearity of data. Third, to test direct effects of variables (government expenditure and investment effect on the unemployment rate and economic growth; investment on government expenditure; economic growth on unemployment rate; economic growth and unemployment rate on income inequality). Fourth, to test indirect effects using Sobel test, which involves UR and EG as intervening variable. Fifth, to test hypotheses with p-value < 0.05. The results of the study reveal that, of the 12 relationships, statistics show that 11 variations of the association have significant positive and negative effects. Theoretically, the different characters and goals of GE and INV in each country will have a different impact on EG and UR goals. The study provides an input, especially for the government. To create optimal EG through GE and INV, it is necessary to allocate budgets to industrial sectors that can absorb a massive labor force and to new economic growth sectors.

• Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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• 제4권1호
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• pp.1-18
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• 2015

Most research on Official Development Assistance (ODA) targeted the recipients, but this study examines the effect of ODA on the donor's exports to the recipient. To do this, a panel analysis was carried out with ODA and macroeconomic data on the United States and 33 other countries from 1999 to 2009. The results are summarized as follows: (1) The economic influence on the donor varies with the recipient's localization effort. (2) High-tech exports to the recipient are independent of ODA. (3) In medium-to-low-technology areas, ODA has a positive effect on exports to the recipient with low absorption efforts. (4) Both High-tech and LM-tech product exports decreases with the technological innovation efforts of recipients with high absorption efforts, while High-tech product exports only increases with that of recipients with low absorption efforts. These results indicate that a strategic approach for ODA program is more effective and useful to the donor's economy.