• Title/Summary/Keyword: Macroeconomic Effects

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A Big Data Analysis Methodology for Examining Emerging Trend Zones Identified by SNS Users: Focusing on the Spatial Analysis Using Instagram Data (SNS 사용자에 의해 형성된 트렌드 중심지 도출을 위한 빅 데이터 분석 방법론 연구: 인스타그램 데이터 활용 공간분석을 중심으로)

  • Il Sup Lee;Kyung Kyu Kim;Ae Ri Lee
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.63-85
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    • 2018
  • Emerging hotspot and trendy areas are formed into alleys and blocks with the help of viral effects among social network services (SNS) users called "Golmogleo." These users search for every corner of the alleys to share and promote their own favorite places through SNS. An analysis of hot places is limited if it is only based on macroeconomic indicators such as commercial area data published by national organizations, large-scale visiting facilities, and commuter figures. Careful analyses based on consumers' actual activities are needed. This study develops a "social big data analysis methodology" using Instagram data, which is one of the most popular SNSs suitable to identify recent consumer trends. We build a spatial analysis model using Local Moran's I. Results show that our model identifies new trend zones on the basis of posting data in Instagram, which are not included in the commercial information prepared by national organizations. The proposed analysis methodology enables better identification of the latest trend areas formulated by SNS user activities. It also provides practical information for start-ups, small business owners, and alley merchants for marketing purposes. This analytical methodology can be applied to future studies on social big data analysis.

Construction of Consumer Confidence index based on Sentiment analysis using News articles (뉴스기사를 이용한 소비자의 경기심리지수 생성)

  • Song, Minchae;Shin, Kyung-shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.1-27
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    • 2017
  • It is known that the economic sentiment index and macroeconomic indicators are closely related because economic agent's judgment and forecast of the business conditions affect economic fluctuations. For this reason, consumer sentiment or confidence provides steady fodder for business and is treated as an important piece of economic information. In Korea, private consumption accounts and consumer sentiment index highly relevant for both, which is a very important economic indicator for evaluating and forecasting the domestic economic situation. However, despite offering relevant insights into private consumption and GDP, the traditional approach to measuring the consumer confidence based on the survey has several limits. One possible weakness is that it takes considerable time to research, collect, and aggregate the data. If certain urgent issues arise, timely information will not be announced until the end of each month. In addition, the survey only contains information derived from questionnaire items, which means it can be difficult to catch up to the direct effects of newly arising issues. The survey also faces potential declines in response rates and erroneous responses. Therefore, it is necessary to find a way to complement it. For this purpose, we construct and assess an index designed to measure consumer economic sentiment index using sentiment analysis. Unlike the survey-based measures, our index relies on textual analysis to extract sentiment from economic and financial news articles. In particular, text data such as news articles and SNS are timely and cover a wide range of issues; because such sources can quickly capture the economic impact of specific economic issues, they have great potential as economic indicators. There exist two main approaches to the automatic extraction of sentiment from a text, we apply the lexicon-based approach, using sentiment lexicon dictionaries of words annotated with the semantic orientations. In creating the sentiment lexicon dictionaries, we enter the semantic orientation of individual words manually, though we do not attempt a full linguistic analysis (one that involves analysis of word senses or argument structure); this is the limitation of our research and further work in that direction remains possible. In this study, we generate a time series index of economic sentiment in the news. The construction of the index consists of three broad steps: (1) Collecting a large corpus of economic news articles on the web, (2) Applying lexicon-based methods for sentiment analysis of each article to score the article in terms of sentiment orientation (positive, negative and neutral), and (3) Constructing an economic sentiment index of consumers by aggregating monthly time series for each sentiment word. In line with existing scholarly assessments of the relationship between the consumer confidence index and macroeconomic indicators, any new index should be assessed for its usefulness. We examine the new index's usefulness by comparing other economic indicators to the CSI. To check the usefulness of the newly index based on sentiment analysis, trend and cross - correlation analysis are carried out to analyze the relations and lagged structure. Finally, we analyze the forecasting power using the one step ahead of out of sample prediction. As a result, the news sentiment index correlates strongly with related contemporaneous key indicators in almost all experiments. We also find that news sentiment shocks predict future economic activity in most cases. In almost all experiments, the news sentiment index strongly correlates with related contemporaneous key indicators. Furthermore, in most cases, news sentiment shocks predict future economic activity; in head-to-head comparisons, the news sentiment measures outperform survey-based sentiment index as CSI. Policy makers want to understand consumer or public opinions about existing or proposed policies. Such opinions enable relevant government decision-makers to respond quickly to monitor various web media, SNS, or news articles. Textual data, such as news articles and social networks (Twitter, Facebook and blogs) are generated at high-speeds and cover a wide range of issues; because such sources can quickly capture the economic impact of specific economic issues, they have great potential as economic indicators. Although research using unstructured data in economic analysis is in its early stages, but the utilization of data is expected to greatly increase once its usefulness is confirmed.

The Impact of Changes in Market Shares among Retailing Types on the Price Index (소매업태간 시장점유율 변화가 물가에 미친 영향)

  • Moon, Youn-Hee;Choi, Sung-Ho;Choi, Ji-Ho
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.93-115
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    • 2012
  • This study empirically examines the impact of changes in market shares among retailing types on the price index. The retailing type is classified into 6 groups: department store, big mart, super market, convenient store, specialty merchant, and on-line store. The market shares of retailing types are calculated by the ratio of each retailing type monthly sales to total monthly retailing sales in which total retailing sales is the sum of each retailing type sales. We employed several price indices: consumer price index (CPI), CPI for living necessaries, and fresh food price index. In addition, this study used fundamental price indices based on 25 product families as well as 42 representative products. The empirical model also included several variables in order to control for the macroeconomic effects and those variables are the exchange rate, M1, an oil price, and the industrial production index. The data is monthly time-series data spanning over the period from January 2000 to December 2010. In order to test for the stability of data series, we conducted ADF test and PP test in which the model and length of lag were determined by the relevant previous literature and based on the AIC. The empirical results indicate that changes in market shares among retailing types have impacts on the price index. Table A shows that impacts differ as to which price index to use and which product families and products to use. For department store, it lowers the price of food and non-alcoholic beverages, home appliances, fresh food, fresh and vegetables, but it keeps the price high for fresh fruit. The big mart retailing type has a positive impact on the price of food, nut has a negative effect on clothing and foot wear, non-food, and fresh fruit. For super market, it has a positive impact on food and non-alcoholic beverages, fresh food, fresh shellfishes, but increases the price of CPI for living necessaries and non-food. The specialty merchant retailing type increases the price level of CPI for living necessaries and fresh fruit. For on-line store type, it keeps the price high for CPI for living necessaries and non-food as well as fresh fruit. For the analysis based on 25 product families shows that changes in market shares among retailing types also have different effects on the price index. Table B summarizes the different results. The 42 representative product level analysis is summerized in Table C and it indicates that changes in market shares among retailing types have different effects on the price index. The study offers the theoretical and practical implication to these findings and also suggests the direction for the further analysis.

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The Impact of SSM Market Entry on Changes in Market Shares among Retailing Types (기업형 슈퍼마켓(SSM)의 시장진입이 소매업태간 시장점유율 변화에 미친 영향)

  • Choi, Ji-Ho;Yonn, Min-Suk;Moon, Youn-Hee;Choi, Sung-Ho
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.115-132
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    • 2012
  • This study empirically examines the impact of SSM market entry on changes in market shares among retailing types. The data is monthly time-series data spanning over the period from January 2000 to December 2010, and the effect of SSM market entry on market shares of retailing types is analyzed by utilizing several key factors such as the number of new SSM monthly entrants, total number of SSMs, the proportion of new SSM entrant that is smaller than $165m^2$ to total new SSM entrants. According to the Korean Standard Industrial Classification codes, the retailing type is classified into 5 groups: department stores, retail sale in other non-specialized large stores(big marts), supermarkets, convenience stores, and retail sale in other non-specialized stores with food or beverages predominating (others). The market shares of retailing types are calculated by the ratio of each retailing type monthly sales to total monthly retailing sales in which total retailing sales is the sum of each retailing type sales. The empirical model controls for the size effects with the number of monthly employees for each retailing type and the macroeconomic effects with M2. The empirical model employed in this study is as follows; $$MS_i=f(NewSSM,\;CumSSM,\;employ_i,\;under165,\;M2)$$ where $MS_i$ is the market share of each retailing type (department stores, big marts), supermarkets, convenience stores, and others), NewSSM is the number of new SSM monthly entrants, CumSSM is total number of SSMs, $employ_i$ is the number of monthly employees for each retailing type, and under165 is the proportion of new SSM entrant that is smaller than $165m^2$ to total new SSM entrants. The correlation among these variables are reported in

    .
    shows the descriptive statistics of the sample. Sales is the total monthly revenue of each retailing type, employees is total number of monthly employees for each retailing type, area is total floor space of each retail type($m^2$), number of store is total number of monthly stores for each retailing type, market share is the ratio of each retailing type monthly sales to total monthly retailing sales in which total retailing sales is the sum of each retailing type sales, new monthly SSMs is total number of new monthly SSM entrants, and M2 is a money supply. The empirical results of the effect of new SSM market entry on changes in market shares among retailing types (department stores, retail sale in other non-specialized large stores, supermarkets, convenience stores, and retail sale in other non-specialized stores with food or beverages predominating) are reported in
    . The dependant variables are the market share of department stores, the market share of big marts, the market share of supermarkets, the market share of convenience stores, and the market share of others. The result shows that the impact of new SSM market entry on changes in market share of retail sale in other non-specialized large stores (big marts) is statistically significant. Total number of monthly SSM stores has a significant effect on market share, but the magnitude and sign of effect is different among retailing types. The increase in the number of SSM stores has a negative effect on the market share of retail sale in other non-specialized large stores(big marts) and convenience stores, but has a positive impact on the market share of department stores, supermarkets, and retail sale in other non-specialized stores with food or beverages predominating (others). This study offers the theoretical and practical implication to these findings and also suggests the direction for the further analysis.

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  • The Economic Impact of the Korean Port Industry on the National Economy : from the Viewpoint of Macroeconomics (한국항만산업이 국가경제에 미치는 영향에 관한 분석 - 거시경제의 관점에서 -)

    • Moon, S.H.
      • Journal of Korean Port Research
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      • v.6 no.2
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      • pp.65-92
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      • 1992
    • The Korean central government has not appreciate the full extent of the impact of seaports on the national economy. As a consequence port investment has not been given sufficient priority and capacity has failed to keep pace with demand. The principal reason for this failure is the fact that the linkages (or relationships) of the port transport industry with other sectors have not been quantified and fully appreciated. To overcome this dificiency this paper developed a port input-output model to determine the economic impact of the port industry on the national economy. This impact study was conducted by analysing the impact of the Korean port industry upon the national economy from the macroeconomic viewpoint, and identifying the spreading effects of port investments upon the nation's economy. The analysis of the economic impact of the port industry suggests that its contribution to the Korean economy is substantial. What the model shows is, in quantifiable terms, there are the strong economic linkages between the port industry and the other sectors of the national economy. The contribution of the port industry to the Korean economy was summarised in the Conclusion section.

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