• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.17 no.7
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• pp.648-655
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• 2016

As the FTAs' implementations are accelerated, an Ex-post assessment, such as an analysis of the tariff schedule and agricultural trade has been emerging as an important national issue for an agricultural sector Korea-EU FTA, which was to be implemented in the five years from July 2016 as one of the giant FTA. The purpose of this study was to determine the demand of an ex-post assessment on agricultural sector as a trade negotiation procedural law. In addition, by providing policy direction for the agricultural policy part requiring amendments and supplements through ex-post assessment, the conflicting arguments between agricultural and non-agricultural sector can be evaluated more objectively. The current evaluation method on the economic impact ex-post assessment of a FTA is generally compared using the change in trade balance before and after the time of FTA implementation. On the other hand, this comparison cannot be said to be the pure FTA effects and objective, tightening economic impact assessment of the FTA in all combined situations, such as the effects of exchange rates and international macroeconomic changes and climate change & occurrence of pests. Over the last 4 years, however, Korea-EU FTA's total accumulated agricultural GDP loss was measured to be 2,178 billion by these research attempts with dynamic analysis as ex-post assessment methodology. The greatest impact was mainly livestock and pork followed by cereals and vegetables. In addition, this research is expected to contribute to policy evaluations in the future.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.233-260
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• 2022

In this paper, we analyzed how oil price fluctuations affect stock price by industry using the non-parametric quantile causality test method. We used weekly data of WTI spot price, KOSPI index, and 22 industrial stock indices from January 1998 to April 2021. The empirical results show that the effect of changes in oil prices on the KOSPI index was not significant, which can be attributed to mixed responses of diverse stock prices in several industries included in the KOSPI index. Looking at the stock price response to oil price by industry, the 9 of 18 industries, including Cloth, Paper, and Medicine show a causality with oil prices, while 9 industries, including Food, Chemical, and Non-metal do not show a causal relationship. Four industries including Medicine and Communication (0.45~0.85), Cloth (0.15~0.45), and Construction (0.5~0.6) show causality with oil prices more than three quantiles consecutively. However, the quantiles in which causality appeared were different for each industry. From the result, we find that the effects of oil price on the stock prices differ significantly by industry, and even in one industry, and the response to oil price changes is different depending on the market situation. This suggests that the government's macroeconomic policies, such as industrial and employment policies, should be performed in consideration of the differences in the effects of oil price fluctuations by industry and market conditions. It also shows that investors have to rebalance their portfolio by industry when oil prices fluctuate.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.43 no.5
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• pp.47-66
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• 2018

This study analyzes the potential economic effects of a trade war between the U.S. and China. The CGE model is used to estimate the macroeconomic variables of each country and the change in imports/exports by industry by considering three different scenarios: (i) the US imposes a 25% of tariff on China; (ii) the US and China impose a 25% tariff bilaterally; (iii) the United States expands protection in vehicles and metals to Korea, Japan, and the EU. According to the results of the study, when the US and China initiate a trade war, GDP and welfare of both countries decline. China's decline in GDP and welfare are larger than those of the United States, which implies a trade war is more favorable to the U.S. than to China. In the long run, China's GDP and welfare decline widens further. While the trade volumes of the US and China are greatly reduced, the trade volumes of other countries does not significantly fluctuate. Finally, if the US extends protection policy to Korea, Japan and the EU, it creates undesirable effects on the US. In particular, damage to the US jeopardizes its advantageous position in a trade war with China. In order to emphasize the unfairness of protectionist policy and the damage to Korean industry, Korea needs to establish a strategy to counter US protectionist policy.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.129-140
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• 1991

The primary purpose of price regulation on public utilities and other public services is not to prevent them from rising and control inflation but to allocate resources efficiently and reflect social values, when market does not function perfectly. That is, price regulation by government is a policy tool which is aimed at microeconomic effects. Therefore, when a microeconomic policy tool is used for macroeconomic policy objectives, such as price stabilization, we can have problems stemming from the mismatch. One of the examples is distortions in the relative price structure of resources. As government suppresses increases in regulated prices in an effort to reduce inflationary pressures, some of the public services become relatively cheaper, resulting in excess use of those services under regulation. Also, inflexibility of adjusting regulated prices to the overall price changes results in deterioration of qualities of public services. This paper proposes a set of reform proposals which are itnended to minimize such government failures. It is argued that the authority of price regulation should be decentralized, and ultimately done by independent regulatory commissions for each service. The pricing should be based on the principle of separate and independent accounting by each service unit and the principle of beneficiaries bearing the costs of services.

• Hwankyungkyoyuk
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.89-211
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• 1993

The Korean government embarked upon ambitious economic development plans in the 1960's the goals of development policy at that time were the elimination of absolute poverty and the alleviation of unemployment. With scant natural resources, the government had to push for industrialization based upon borrowed foreign raw materials with surplus local labor. Preoccupation with the economic goals of industrialization and export expansion left little room for considering environmental protection. It is evident that Korea's exported industrialization strategy of the past three decades has been a success in terms of income, production, and other macroeconomic indicators, but it cannot be denied that a host of undesirable side-effects have been created. These include environmental problems. congestion in several large cities, poor wealth distribution, and regional disparities. The environmental problems were recognized even in the early stage of development, but preoccupation with the pending economic goals of industrialization and export expansion left little room for considering environment protection. The perceived and actual seriousness of the problems, however, has reached such a level that further negligence may imperil political stability and developmental problems facing the world arise from a world economic order characterized by ever expanding consumption and production, which exhausts and contaminates natural resources and creates and perpetuates gross inequalities between and within nations. It will be necessary to develop new culture and ethical values, transform economic structures, and reorient, our lifestyles. Changing lifestyles can not be promoted by government policy initiative alone but through self=generated educational efforts and mutual training by people themselves. The citizens group for environment (NGOs) should assume these educational and training responsibilities starting from grass-root level of people. It must be reawakened to the reality that the environmental preservation for better quality of life is based on the development of human relationships, creativity, spirituality, reverance for the natural world and celebration of life, and is not dependent upon increased consumption of non-basic material goods. To carry on such environment education social movements and NGOs should (1) provides educational methodologies, which focus on values clarification and moving beyond clarification and moving beyond blame to constructive action. (2) provide training for leaders of business and industry, government, union and others on consumption and production. (3) initiate and support the training and work of environmental counselor who encourage responsible consumption. (4) cooperative with media to initiate and strengthen educational programs on the social environmental programs on the social environmental impacts of consumption and production and to build awareness of consumer responsibility and potential. Economic and social development can be compatible with environment protection : both can be achieved simultaneously. Effective environmental management depends on the various factors : political will, institutional arrangements, appropriate legislation, and availability of the requistite financial and technological resources, which is possible with a strong public awareness of the importance of environmental preservation.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.36 no.5
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• pp.578-592
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• 2001

Based on a survey sample of farm households in three provinces of Korea, this article reports the perspectives of fuel-time farmers regarding trade liberalization, its effects on their lives, and the future of small-scale farming. While the agricultural sector is being transformed under neoliberal policies, farmers, with life or no preparation for a global market order, are forced to modernize their farming operations. The findings from the survey indicate that farmers accede to terms of global integration in principle while disapproving state rural policies in practice. The survey data also confirm that intra-regional differences in farmers'perceived satisfaction with living conditions, government farm policies, and socio-economic/labor issues. Disparities in the degree of discontent with government policies and socio-economic well-being are explicit between the relatively diversified region of Kyonggi Province and the farming-dependent regions of Chunbuk and Kyongbuk Provinces. The overall findings uphold that most farmers who have not been fully exposed to free market mechanisms are confronted by increased uncertainties and economic hardships. The findings propound that agricultural/rural policies need to reflect long-term, macroeconomic changes, and regionally/locally-based agricultural structure.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.419-448
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• 2008

The objective of this study is to conduct a quantitative assessment of potential impacts on the Korean economy of Agreement on Trade in Services Under the Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Among the Governments of the Republic of Korea and the Member Countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations which was signed on 21 November 2007 using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. Tariff equivalents of services were calculated on the basis of concessions made in the Agreement between Korea and ASEAN member countries. The empirical analysis shows that Korea is to get an additional gain in real GDP of 0.04 percent and in welfare of US$106 million, with an increase in per capita utility of 0.03 percent. Total exports and imports of Korea are to rise by US$179 million and $191 million, respectively, causing a trade deficit of $12 million. Korea's exports to ASEAN member countries will increase by $108 million and Korea's imports from them will rise by $278 million, giving rise to a trade deficit of $170 million.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.695-728
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• 2009

This study aims to conduct a quantitative assessment of potential economic impacts on the Korean economy of the concessions of the Korea-U.S. FTA (KORUS FTA) which was signed on April 1, 2007 using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, with all sectors, including agriculture, manufacturing sectors and services industry, considered for simulations. In addition, the timing of trade liberalization based on the concessions agreed on in the KORUS FTA talks for all sectors is explicitly considered. Major findings of this study are that Korea' real GDP would rise by 4.67%~4.99% by 2023 and the contribution of liberalization of services trade to Korea's economic growth would be 0.3%~0.62% points. Trade liberalization in service sectors would lead to lowered import prices and an increase in FDI, which are to contribute to an higher output and exports of sectors which make an intensive use of imported inputs and finally a higher economic growth of the Korean economy as a whole. For that to happen, a ratification of the KORUS FTA by the National Assembly of Korea and the U.S. Congress is required.

• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.113-118
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• 2023

This study analyzed the effects of macroeconomic variables, including housing affordability, and bank loan-related variables on variation in housing prices using multiple regression models. As a result of the analysis, consumer price growth rate, the total currency growth rate, and the housing affordability growth rate had a significant positive effect on changes in housing prices. As a result of analyzing the period of rising and falling housing prices, consumer price growth rate and the total currency growth rate during the period of rising housing prices had a significant positive effect on housing prices. Unlike the period of rising housing prices, the growth rate of household loans was found to have a significant positive effect on changes in housing prices. On the other hand, unlike the period of rising housing prices, the growth rater of mortgage loans was found to have a significant negative effect on changes in housing prices. The growth rate of housing affordability index did not have a significant positive effect on changes in housing prices during a falling housing prices. The determinants of housing prices showed different patterns during the period of rising housing prices and falling housing prices.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.1-32
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• 2024

The emissions trading system stands as a pivotal climate policy in Korea, incentivizing abatement equivalent to 87% of total emissions (as of 2021). As the system likely has a far-reaching impact, it is crucial to understand how the real economic activity, energy sector, as well as environment would be influenced by its implementation. Employing a macroeconometric model, this paper is the first study analyzing the effects of the Korean emissions trading policy. It interconnects the Korean Standard Industrial Classification (Economy), Energy Balance (Energy), and National Inventory Report (Environment), enhancing its real-world explanatory power. We find that a 50% increase in emission permit price over four years results in a decrease in greenhouse gas emissions (-0.043%) and downward shifts in key macroeconomic variables, including real GDP (-0.058%), private consumption (-0.003%), and investment (-0.301%). The price increase in emission permit is deemed crucial for achieving greenhouse gas reduction targets. To mitigate transition risk associated with price shocks, revenue recycling using auction could ensure the sustainability of the economy. This study confirms the comparative advantage of expanded current transfers expenditure over corporate tax reduction, particularly from an economic growth perspective.