• Title/Summary/Keyword: Macro-scale

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Hydrological impact assessment of anthropogenic climate change: Pakistan flood in 2022 (인간 활동에 의한 기후변화의 수문학적 영향 평가: 2022년 파키스탄 홍수)

  • Jin Pak;Suyeon Moon;Yusuke Satoh;Hyungjun Kim
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.327-327
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    • 2023
  • 인간 활동의 영향으로 인한 기후변화는 지구의 물 순환을 변화시키며 결과적으로 수문학적 재해의 발생빈도와 강도를 변화시킬 것으로 전망한다. 파키스탄은 기후변화에 대한 기여도가 적음에도 불구하고 기후변화로 인한 피해가 큰 나라 중 하나이다. 파키스탄은 2022년 여름 국가의 30% 이상의 지역이 침수되며 3300만명이 피해를 받은 기록적인 홍수를 겪은 바 있다. 본 연구에서는 하천 물리 모델인 Catchment based Macro-scale Floodplain (CaMa-Flood)를 사용하여 2022년 파키스탄에서 발생한 홍수에 대하여 인간 활동에 의한 기후변화 영향을 평가했다. 결합모델간 상호비교 프로젝트 (Coupled Model Intercomparision Project Phase 6, CMIP6)에 참여한 모형들 중, 일 유출량을 제공하는 4개의 전구기후모델 (CanESM5, CNRM-CM6-1, HadGEM3-GC31-LL, IPSL-CM6A-LR)을 선정하였다. 본 연구는 선정된 모델을 기반으로 지난 1950-2014년의 총 65년간, 인간의 영향을 제외한 hist-nat과 인간의 영향이 포함된 historical 시뮬레이션 결과를 비교하여 홍수에 대한 인간 활동의 기여도를 평가하였다. 각 hist-nat과 historical 시뮬레이션에서 산출된 일 유출량을 CaMa-Flood의 입력 자료로 사용하여, 파키스탄 지역의 자연 변동성 및 인위적 강제력이 영향을 미치는 하천 유량, 저수량, 범람 면적 및 수위 등을 계산하였다. 연구 결과, 인간 활동이 2022년 파키스탄 홍수의 하천 범람 면적 및 총 하천 유량 증가에 영향을 미쳤으며, 이는 자연 변동성만을 고려한 hist-nat 시뮬레이션과의 비교를 통해 차이를 확인하였다. 이는 향후 파키스탄 지역에서 발생하는 홍수 사례 전망 및 유엔 기후변화협약당사국총회(COP27)에서 의제로 채택된 기후변화로 인한 손실과 피해의 보상에 대한 구체적인 근거에 도움이 될 것으로 보인다.

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A Study on Determining Trade Terms for Logistics Efficiency in the Era of Logistics 4.0: Moderated Mediating Effect of Added Value of Traded Goods

  • Chang-Bong Kim;Kyeong-Wook Jeong;Hwa-Jung Hyun
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.1-18
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    • 2023
  • Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to study how flexibility and mutuality in determining trade terms impact logistics efficiency in the context of relational theory. Additionally, the effect of relational contracts on logistical efficiency relative to the value of the goods being traded is investigated. Design/methodology - According to the relational contract theory, we developed 17 factors utilizing a 7-point Likert scale to measure variables related to flexibility, mutuality, logistics efficiency, and the added value of goods. The survey occurred over four months, and was distributed directly, and via email, phone, and online Google surveys. A total of 403 surveys were collected out of 1,800 distributed, and 380 were analyzed. The principal respondents were import/export companies and members of the Korea International Trade Association and the Korea Small and Medium Business Export-Import Association. The collected data were analyzed using frequency analysis, exploratory factor analysis, and correlation analysis using SPSS ver. 26.0 statistical software, and hypothesis test results were derived using Process Macro ver. 3.5. Findings - This study provides evidence that negotiation flexibility for trade terms affects the efficiency of the logistics process, and the mutuality of such arrangements is shown to be associated with the flexibility and efficiency of logistics processes. Additionally, it has been established that companies whose trade goods possess a low degree of added value may experience increased efficiency in logistics operations if they agree to trade terms that are both flexible and mutually beneficial with their counterparts. Originality/value - This study suggests that in an environment of rapidly shifting global logistics and unpredictable related costs, trade companies may be able to improve logistics efficiency by establishing flexible, mutually beneficial trade terms when entering into contracts. Furthermore, it is suggested that companies dealing in low-value-added products may improve the logistical performance of approaching trade from a perspective of relational contracts.

A Study on the Effect of The Service Quality Factors of SMEs in Korea on Utilization Performance of B2B Global Export E-commerce (우리나라 중소 수출제조기업의 서비스 품질요인이 B2B 글로벌 전자상거래 활용성과에 미치는 영향 연구)

  • Chang-Bong Kim;Hwa-Jung Hyun
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.47 no.2
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    • pp.155-174
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    • 2022
  • This study aims to analyze the effect of service quality on e-commerce utilization performance in B2B market. Measurement factors derived from the survey were examined, and whether they had a positive effect on the performance of e-commerce utilizing was examined. The survey period was conducted on the Likert-5 score scale for about four months from November 2021 to February 2022, and 2,200 copies were distributed online and offline, and a total of 268 copies were used for empirical analysis. The moderating effect of the research methodology was analyzed by using multiple regression analysis and PROCESS MACRO. Three factors of service quality were secured and the influence relationship on e-commerce utilization performance was derived. Study results were as follows. First, interaction, logistics and economics have a positive effect on the level of e-commerce utilization. It means SMEs can increase the level of use of e-commerce as they produce and deliver goods with high economic contribution from the perspective of foreign companies, accuracy of goods transportation services, and purchasing companies. Second, It was confirmed that the effect of service quality on the utilization performance of e-commerce varies depending on the degree of corporate image. Therefore, it will be important to plan a management strategy first to improve service quality in order to increase e-commerce activities.

A Data-driven Multiscale Analysis for Hyperelastic Composite Materials Based on the Mean-field Homogenization Method (초탄성 복합재의 평균장 균질화 데이터 기반 멀티스케일 해석)

  • Suhan Kim;Wonjoo Lee;Hyunseong Shin
    • Composites Research
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    • v.36 no.5
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    • pp.329-334
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    • 2023
  • The classical multiscale finite element (FE2 ) method involves iterative calculations of micro-boundary value problems for representative volume elements at every integration point in macro scale, making it a computationally time and data storage space. To overcome this, we developed the data-driven multiscale analysis method based on the mean-field homogenization (MFH). Data-driven computational mechanics (DDCM) analysis is a model-free approach that directly utilizes strain-stress datasets. For performing multiscale analysis, we efficiently construct a strain-stress database for the microstructure of composite materials using mean-field homogenization and conduct data-driven computational mechanics simulations based on this database. In this paper, we apply the developed multiscale analysis framework to an example, confirming the results of data-driven computational mechanics simulations considering the microstructure of a hyperelastic composite material. Therefore, the application of data-driven computational mechanics approach in multiscale analysis can be applied to various materials and structures, opening up new possibilities for multiscale analysis research and applications.

Investigation of mechanical surface treatment effect on the properties of titanium thin film

  • Ehsan Bazzaz;Abolfazl Darvizeh;Majid Alitavoli;Mehdi Yarmohammad Tooski
    • Advances in nano research
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.33-49
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    • 2024
  • Using the mechanical treatments for mechanical properties improvement was rarely in the development scope before. This research approves through analytical ways that surface impacts can improve the quality of the surface significantly. This fact is approved for deposited titanium on silicone substrate. The new algorithm called minimum resultant error method (MREM) which is a direct combination of nanoindentation, FEM and dimensional analysis through a reverse method is utilized to extract the mechanical characteristics of the coating surface before and after impact. This method is extended to the time dependent behavior of the material to obtain strain rate coefficient. To implement this new approach, a new analysis technic is developed to define the residual stress field caused by surface impact as initial condition for nanoindentation. Analyzing the model in micro and macro scale at the same time was one of the main resolved challenges in this study. The result was obtaining of the constants of Johnson-Cook constitutive equation. Comparing the characteristics of the coating surface before and after impact shows high improvement in yield stress (34%), Elastic modulus (7.75%) and strain hardening coefficient (2.8%). The main achievement is that the strength improvement in titanium thin layer is much higher than bulk titanium. The yield strength shows 41.7% improvement for coated titanium comparing with 24% for bulk material. The rate of enhancement is about 6 times when it comes to the Young's modulus.

3D GIS의 기술 동향

  • Lee, Ji-Yeong
    • Proceedings of the Korean Association of Geographic Inforamtion Studies Conference
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    • 2010.06a
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    • pp.185-185
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    • 2010
  • 문명 발전에 의해 생활공간이 더욱더 복잡해짐에 따라 현실 세계의 3차원 공간으로서의 이해가 필요해졌고, 3차원 공간을 효율적으로 관리 및 분석하기 위하여 3차원 GIS에 대한 중요성이 대두되기 시작하였다. 현재까지의 3차원 GIS는 1990년대에 들어서 3차원 가상도시의 등장으로 도시 모델의 3차원 가시화에 대해 많은 연구가 진행되어 왔다. 이러한 3차원 가상도시는 도시 관리 차원에서 도시공간의 표현, 분석, 모델링, 시뮬레이션 등을 통하여 도시정보의 체계적이고 효율적인 관리를 가능하게 한다. 3D GIS 기술의 활용 사례로는 3차원 도시 경관 분석 및 도시 계획, 3차원 시뮬레이션, 3차원 위치기반 서비스, 도시 행정 관리 등이 있다. 3차원 도시 경관 분석 및 도시 계획 활용 분야에서는 3차원 GIS를 활용하여 새롭게 건설되는 건물들이나 토지 이용 변경에 따른 경관 분석을 가상공간에서 시뮬레이션 분석함으로써 경관 변화 예측 및 적합한 경관 설계에 대한 분석을 한다. 3차원 시뮬레이션의 경우 환경오염도 분석, 최적의 입지선정, 개발 전후의 경관 차이, 각종 재난에 따른 위험도 분석, 경관과 일조량 분석 등을 미리 가상도시에 시뮬레이션 함으로서 불필요한 업무를 줄일 수 있고 발생할 수 있는 결과 값을 예상할 수 있다. 3차원 위치기반 서비스의 경우 자신의 위치를 비교적 정확히 측정함으로서 생소한 도시를 방문하거나 위치를 찾아갈 경우 최단 경로 및 최적 경로를 탐색할 수 있다. 앞으로의 3차원 GIS 기술 동향으로 유비쿼터스 환경에서의 시공간분석(Temporal GIS)과 3차원 실내공간인지 기술 개발 등으로 볼수있다. 시공간분석은 시공간 질의를 통한 공간정보의 시간에 다른 변화 계산 또는 예측된 결과를 분석할 수 있고, 시공간 분석에 사용되는 공간적, 시간적 정보의 조합은 적어도 3차원 이상의 정보를 나타내기 때문에 필요에 따라 다양한 결과를 산출 할 수 있다. 종합적으로 시공간분석은 GIS의 분석 범위를 넓혀 주며 실시간 GIS 응용시스템 개발을 위한 주요 과업이다. 3차원 실내공간정보 표현기법과 공간분석 및 공간인지 기법을 이용한 통한 유비쿼터스 환경에서의 3차원 실내공간인지 기술 개발을 통해 최근 공간정보를 기반으로 한 위치기반서비스내 u-서비스 즉, 인간 행태의 분석, 관리 및 응용을 지원하도록 한다 이는 위치기반서비스 사용자의 주변상황에 대한 인지능력을 향상시켜주고 최근 사회적 이슈가 되고 있는 U-City의 성공여부에 직접적인 영향을 미칠것이다. 이를 위해 다음과 같은 기술개발이 수행되어야 할것이다. 첫째로, 공간인지 기술을 위한 3차원 실내공간표현 방법 개발, 둘째로, 3차원 실내공간정보를 이용한 공간분석 및 공간인지 기법 개발, 마지막으로 유비쿼터스 환경에서 3차원 실내공간인지를 위한 미들웨어 개발을 통해서 공간정보의 활용을 macro-scale 공간에서 micro-scale로 확산될 것이다. 그러므로, 본 세미나를 통해서, 3차원 GIS의 활용의 보편화와 대중화를 위해서는 3차원 데이터 획득 및 처리 방법, 3차원 공간데이타베이스, 공간 분석 및 가시화에 대한 기술적 이슈들을 논하고자 한다.

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A Study on Measurement of TFP and Determinant factor (IT제조업의 총요소생산성 추정 및 결정요인 분석)

  • Lee, Young-Soo;Kim, Jung-Un;Jung, Hyun-Joon
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.76-86
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    • 2008
  • This paper estimates the TFP in IT manufacturing (total factor productivity) by employment size of establishment and analyses the determinants of it. And the panel data is consisted of time series and cross section data of 4 employment size of establishment over $1990{\sim}2004$. During the period from 1991 to 1997 TFP increased positively irrespective of the employment size of establishment, but from 1998 to 2004 TFP increase rate turned negative except large size(more than 300) of establishment. TFP assume macro variables and policy variables as the determinants of IT manufacturing TFP. The analysis of whole size of establishment shows that sales growth rate is significantly positive, which makes us conclude that there is a teaming by doing effect and economy of scale. But some variables(i.e. IT capital stock, policy financing, and openness etc.) are significant in only a few models. So there may be different effect by employment size of establishment. In TFP determinants analysis by employment size of establishment, we find that coefficients of policy financing and openness variables are significantly positive. The larger employment size of establishment is, the larger scale economy is. And for large size(more than 300) establishment, IT capital stock helps propel the increase of the productivity.

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Forecasting Korean CPI Inflation (우리나라 소비자물가상승률 예측)

  • Kang, Kyu Ho;Kim, Jungsung;Shin, Serim
    • Economic Analysis
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.1-42
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    • 2021
  • The outlook for Korea's consumer price inflation rate has a profound impact not only on the Bank of Korea's operation of the inflation target system but also on the overall economy, including the bond market and private consumption and investment. This study presents the prediction results of consumer price inflation in Korea for the next three years. To this end, first, model selection is performed based on the out-of-sample predictive power of autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) models, AR models, small-scale vector autoregressive (VAR) models, and large-scale VAR models. Since there are many potential predictors of inflation, a Bayesian variable selection technique was introduced for 12 macro variables, and a precise tuning process was performed to improve predictive power. In the case of the VAR model, the Minnesota prior distribution was applied to solve the dimensional curse problem. Looking at the results of long-term and short-term out-of-sample predictions for the last five years, the ADL model was generally superior to other competing models in both point and distribution prediction. As a result of forecasting through the combination of predictions from the above models, the inflation rate is expected to maintain the current level of around 2% until the second half of 2022, and is expected to drop to around 1% from the first half of 2023.

The Impact of Social Capital and Laboratory Startup Team Diversity on Startup Performance Based on a Network Perspective: Focusing on the I-Corps Program (네트워크 관점에 기반한 사회적 자본 및 실험실 창업팀 다양성이창업 성과에 미치는 영향: I-Corps program을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Jai Ho;Sohn, Youngwoo;Han, Jung Wha;Lee, Sang-Myung
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.173-189
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    • 2023
  • As supreme technologies continue to be developed, industries such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology, robots, aerospace, electric vehicles, and solar energy are created, and the macro business environment is rapidly changing. Due to these large-scale changes and increased complexity, it is necessary to pay attention to the effect of social capital, which can create new value by utilizing capital increasing the importance of relationships rather than technology or asset ownership itself at the level of start-up strategy. Social capital is a concept first proposed by Hanifan in 1916, and refers to the overall sum of capabilities or resources that are latent or available for use in mutual, continuous, organic relationships or accumulated human relationship networks between individuals or social members. In addition, the diversity of start-up teams with diverse backgrounds, characteristics, and capabilities, rather than one exceptional founder, has been emphasized. Founding team diversity refers to the diversity of in-depth factors such as demographic factors, beliefs, and values of the founding team. In addition, changes in the macro environment are emphasizing the importance of technology start-ups and laboratory start-ups that lead industrial innovation and create the nation's core growth engines. This study focused on the I-Corps' program. I-Corps, which means innovation corps, is a laboratory startup program launched by the National Research Foundation (NSF) in 2011 to encourage entrepreneurship and commercialization of research results. It focuses on forming a startup team involving professors, researchers and market discovery activities. Taking these characteristics into account, this study empirically verified the impact of social capital from a network perspective and founding team diversity on I-Corps start-up performance. As a result of the analysis, the educational diversity of the founding team had a negative (-) effect on the financial performance of the founding team. On the other side, the gender diversity and the cognitive dimension of social capital had a positive (+) effect on the financial performance of the founding team. This study is expected to provide more useful theoretical and practical implications regarding the diversity, social capital, and performance interpretation of the I-Corps Lab startup team.

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A Study on the Comovements and Structural Changes of Global Business Cycles using MS-VAR models (MS-VAR 모형을 이용한 글로벌 경기변동의 동조화 및 구조적 변화에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Kyung-Hee;Kim, Kyung-Soo
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.1-22
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    • 2016
  • We analyzed the international comovements and structural changes in the quarterly real GDP by the Markov-switching vector autoregressive model (MS-VAR) from 1971(1) to 2016(1). The main results of this study were as follows. First, the business cycle phenomenon that occurs in the models or individual time series in real GDP has been grasped through the MS-VAR models. Unlike previous studies, this study showed the significant comovements, asymmetry and structural changes in the MS-VAR model using a real GDP across countries. Second, even if there was a partial difference, there were remarkable structural changes in the economy contraction regime(recession), such as 1988(2) ending the global oil shock crisis and 2007(3) starting the global financial crisis by the MS-VAR model. Third, large-scale structural changes were generated in the economic expansion and/or contraction regime simultaneously among countries. We found that the second world oil shocks that occurred after the first global oil shocks of 1973 and 1974 were the main reasons that caused the large-scale comovements of the international real GDP among countries. In addition, the spillover between Korea and 5 countries has been weak during the Asian currency crisis from 1997 to 1999, but there was strong transmission between Korea and 5 countries at the end of 2007 including the period of the global financial crisis. Fourth, it showed characteristics that simultaneous correlation appeared to be high due to the country-specific shocks generated for each country with the regime switching using real GDP since 1973. Thus, we confirmed that conclusions were consistent with a number of theoretical and empirical evidence available, and the macro-economic changes were mainly caused by the global shocks for the past 30 years. This study found that the global business cycles were due to large-scale asymmetric shocks in addition to the general changes, and then showed the main international comovements and/or structural changes through country-specific shocks.

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