• Title/Summary/Keyword: Macro index analysis

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Neural Network Analysis in Forecasting the Malaysian GDP

  • SANUSI, Nur Azura;MOOSIN, Adzie Faraha;KUSAIRI, Suhal
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.12
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    • pp.109-114
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    • 2020
  • The aim of this study is to develop basic artificial neural network models in forecasting the in-sample gross domestic product (GDP) of Malaysia. GDP is one of the main indicators in presenting the macro economic condition of a country as set by the world authority bodies such as the World Bank. Hence, this study uses an artificial neural network-based approach to make predictions concerning the economic growth of Malaysia. This method has been proposed due to its ability to overcome multicollinearity among variables, as well as the ability to cope with non-linear problems in Malaysia's growth data. The selected inputs and outputs are based on the previous literatures as well as the economic growth theory. Therefore, the selected inputs are exports, imports, private consumption, government expenditure, consumer price index (CPI), inflation rate, foreign direct investment (FDI) and money supply, which includes M1 and M2. Whilst, the output is real gross domestic product growth rate. The results of this study showed that the neural network method gives the smallest value of mean error which is 0.81 percent with a total difference of 0.70 percent. This implies that the neural network model is appropriate and is a relevant method in forecasting the economic growth of Malaysia.

Financial Ratio, Macro Economy, and Investment Risk on Sharia Stock Return

  • WIDAGDO, Bambang;JIHADI, M.;BACHITAR, Yanuar;SAFITRI, Oky Ervina;SINGH, Sanju Kumar
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.12
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    • pp.919-926
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze and test the effect of financial ratios and macroeconomics on Islamic stock returns listed in Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) other than to assess whether investment risk can be an intervening variable in this study. The type of research is explanatory in nature with a quantitative descriptive approach. The data used is based on secondary sources with a sample group of 29 companies listed on JII for a 5-year period ending 31 December 2018. The data obtained were analyzed by using SEM (Structural Equation Model) with AMOS (Analysis Moment of Structural) 21 program. The results of the study show that only financial ratios affect sharia stock returns and investment risk, while the mediation test found that investment risk does not act as a mediating variable between financial ratios and macroeconomics and Islamic stock return. These findings indicate that the role of the company's financial health is very important. Besides affecting the rate of return obtained, the company's financial health can also reflect the level of risk that investors will accept in the future. By improving financial performance properly, a company will have a positive impact on various interested parties and minimize the level of investor losses.

Characterization of macro-benthic fauna for ecological health status of the Fosu and Benya lagoons in coastal Ghana

  • Armah, Frederick A.;Ason, Benjamin;Luginaah, Isaac;Essandoh, Paul K.
    • Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.279-289
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    • 2012
  • This study conducted a comparative analysis of benthic macroinvertebrate communities in the Fosu and Benya lagoons in Ghana, based on the anthropogenic effect on the two lagoons. Salinity, oxygen, temperature, conductivity, turbidity and pH were measured, invertebrate richness and species densities were determined. The AZTI Marine Biotic Index (AMBI) and multivariate statistics were used to determine the different responses of fauna to pollution. The fauna were categorized into five ecological groups based on the degree of tolerance of the different species to pollution: disturbance-sensitive species; disturbance-indifferent species, disturbance-tolerant species, second-order opportunistic species; and first-order opportunistic species. The Fosu Lagoon supported more pollution tolerant species, whereas the Benya Lagoon had more species that were sensitive to organic enrichment under relatively unpolluted conditions. Chironomus sp., which is adapted to virtually anoxic conditions, was the most abundant in the Fosu Lagoon whereas Nemertea sp. was the most abundant in the Benya Lagoon. The numerical and relative abundance (%) of all 7 taxa in the Fosu Lagoon was 1,359 and 92.35%, respectively. The numerical and relative abundance (%) of all 34 taxa in the Benya Lagoon was 2,459 and 87.52%, respectively. Expectedly, the level of dissolved oxygen in the less saline Fosu Lagoon was higher than that in the more saline Benya Lagoon. The reduced photoperiod and photosynthetic activities of aquatic plants might account for this trend. There is a need to implement comprehensive monitoring and management initiatives for sustaining the ecological health of coastal lagoons in Ghana in order to support the many people that depend upon these ecosystems for their livelihood.

The Technological Competitiveness Analysis of Evolving Artificial Intelligence by Using the Patent Information (특허 분석을 통한 인공지능 기술경쟁력 변화 과정에 관한 연구 - 주요 5개국을 중심으로 -)

  • Huang, Minghao;Nam, Eun Young;Park, Se Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Systems Engineering
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.66-83
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    • 2022
  • Artificial Intelligence (AI) is to assumed to be one of next generation technology which determine technological competitiveness and strategic advantage of a certain country. By using the patent data, this study aims to have a comparative analysis of the technological competitiveness of evolving artificial intelligence at different stages of development among the five largest intellectual property offices in the world (IP5). For the analysis data, all AI technology patent data from 1956 to 2019 were utilized according to the classification system presented in the "WIPO 2019 Technology Trend: Artificial Intelligence" report published by the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) in 2019. The results shows that China has already surpassed the United States in terms of the number of patent applications in the field of artificial intelligence technology. However, in the domains of the United States, Europe, Japan, and Korea, the technology competitiveness of the United States is far ahead of China. Interestingly, the rate of increase of Korea's technology competitiveness is also very fast, and it has been shown that the technology strength is ahead of China in non-Chinese domains. The significance of this study can be found in the fact that the temporal and spatial change process of technological competitiveness of significant countries in the field of artificial intelligence technology artificial intelligence was viewed as a macro-framework using the technology index (TS) the differences were compared.

Seismic Risk Assessment on Buried Electric Power Tunnels with the Use of Liquefaction Hazard Map in Metropolitan Areas (액상화 재해지도를 이용한 수도권 전력구 매설지반의 지진시 위험도 평가)

  • Baek, Woohyun;Choi, Jaesoon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.45-56
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    • 2019
  • In this study, the seismic risk has been evaluated by setting the bedrock acceleration to 0.154g which, was taking into consideration that the earthquake return period for the buried electric power tunnels in the metropolitan area to be 1,000 years. In this case, the risk assessment during the earthquake was carried out in three stages. In the first stage, the site classification was performed based on the site investigation data of the target area. Then, the LPI(Liquefaction Potential Index) was applied using the site amplification factor. After, candidates were selected using a hazard map. In the second stage, risk assessment analysis of seismic response are evaluated thoroughly after the recalculation of the LPI based on the site characteristics from the boring logs around the electric power area that are highly probable to be liquefied in the first stage. The third Stage visited the electric power tunnels that are highly probable of liquefaction in the second stage to compensate for the limitations based on the borehole data. At this time, the risk of liquefaction was finally evaluated based off of the reinforcement method used at the time of construction, the application of seismic design, and the condition of the site.

Characteristics of Macro Benthic Community in the Subtidal Zone of Muan Bay on Summer and Health Assessment by using AZTI Marine Biotic Index (AMBI) and Water Quality Index (WQI) (하계 무안만 조하대 저서동물군집 특성 및 AZTI의 해양생물지수(AMBI)와 수질평가지수(WQI)를 이용한 건강성 평가)

  • Oh, Jun Ho;Lee, Kyoung Seon
    • Journal of Marine Life Science
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.21-28
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    • 2022
  • Benthic animals are important indicators in benthic environmental quality assessment. This study investigated the environmental characteristics and the distribution pattern of benthic animals, and assessed the benthic ecosystem using AMBI (AZTI's marine biotic index) and WQI (water quality index) in the subtidal zone of Muan bay. Samplings were collected from 10 stations in the subtidal zone of Muan bay on summer. In the upper area of Muan bay, grain size was finer and organic content was higher than those of in the lower area. The pollution indicator organism such as Musculista senhousia, Theora fragilis and Lumbrineris longifolia were dominant at some stations. The benthic community was distinguished into three groups of upper, center and lower area of Muan bay, and which were coincided with the results by correlation analysis between organic matter content and benthic health assessment (WQI and AMBI). As a result of this study, the health condition of the subtidal zone in Muan bay were good. However, from the results that benthic animals were not evenly distributed, and also the opportunistic species appeared, the load of organic matter in Muan bay seems to be increasing.

Association between Korean Healthy Eating Index and abdominal obesity in Korean adults: the mediating effect of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (한국 성인의 식생활평가지수 및 복부비만의 관계: 고감도 C-반응 단백질의 매개효과)

  • Jina Yoon;Dayeon Shin
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.57 no.1
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    • pp.88-104
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: High-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) is primarily synthesized in the liver upon stimulation of infectious disease cytokines, such as interleukin-6 (IL-6), and is used as a biological marker of systemic inflammation. Previous studies reported that hs-CRP is closely related to diet and abdominal obesity. Furthermore, a dietary score favoring the consumption of vegetables, fruits, and whole grains over meat and saturated fat reduced inflammation and decreased the prevalence of obesity and abdominal obesity. Nevertheless, no studies have examined whether hs-CRP mediates the relationship between dietary scores and abdominal obesity, and research on the Korean Healthy Eating Index (KHEI) is lacking. Therefore, the present study examined the association between the KHEI and abdominal obesity and the mediating effect of hs-CRP. Methods: In total, 17,770 adults aged ≥19 years were included in the study using the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2015-2018. KHEI was developed to assess the overall diet quality of Korean adults. Multivariable linear and logistic regression analyses assessed the relationship between KHEI, hs-CRP, and abdominal obesity. The mediation analysis with the bootstrapping method was performed using SAS MACRO. Results: Among women, the odds ratio (OR) of abdominal obesity prevalence was lower in the highest KHEI compared to the lowest KHEI after adjusting for age, body mass index, educational level, income level, occupational status, marital status, household type, region type, alcohol consumption, smoking status, physical activity, total energy intake, and hsCRP (OR 0.744, 95% confidence interval 0.598-0.926). The association between KHEI and abdominal obesity was partially mediated via hs-CRP, and the mediated proportion was 68.7% in men and 38.1% in women. Conclusion: A substantial relationship was observed between the KHEI and abdominal obesity among females. Moreover, according to the KHEI, abdominal obesity may be mediated partially by hs-CRP.

Empirical Analysis on Bitcoin Price Change by Consumer, Industry and Macro-Economy Variables (비트코인 가격 변화에 관한 실증분석: 소비자, 산업, 그리고 거시변수를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Junsik;Kim, Keon-Woo;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.195-220
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    • 2018
  • In this study, we conducted an empirical analysis of the factors that affect the change of Bitcoin Closing Price. Previous studies have focused on the security of the block chain system, the economic ripple effects caused by the cryptocurrency, legal implications and the acceptance to consumer about cryptocurrency. In various area, cryptocurrency was studied and many researcher and people including government, regardless of country, try to utilize cryptocurrency and applicate to its technology. Despite of rapid and dramatic change of cryptocurrencies' price and growth of its effects, empirical study of the factors affecting the price change of cryptocurrency was lack. There were only a few limited studies, business reports and short working paper. Therefore, it is necessary to determine what factors effect on the change of closing Bitcoin price. For analysis, hypotheses were constructed from three dimensions of consumer, industry, and macroeconomics for analysis, and time series data were collected for variables of each dimension. Consumer variables consist of search traffic of Bitcoin, search traffic of bitcoin ban, search traffic of ransomware and search traffic of war. Industry variables were composed GPU vendors' stock price and memory vendors' stock price. Macro-economy variables were contemplated such as U.S. dollar index futures, FOMC policy interest rates, WTI crude oil price. Using above variables, we did times series regression analysis to find relationship between those variables and change of Bitcoin Closing Price. Before the regression analysis to confirm the relationship between change of Bitcoin Closing Price and the other variables, we performed the Unit-root test to verifying the stationary of time series data to avoid spurious regression. Then, using a stationary data, we did the regression analysis. As a result of the analysis, we found that the change of Bitcoin Closing Price has negative effects with search traffic of 'Bitcoin Ban' and US dollar index futures, while change of GPU vendors' stock price and change of WTI crude oil price showed positive effects. In case of 'Bitcoin Ban', it is directly determining the maintenance or abolition of Bitcoin trade, that's why consumer reacted sensitively and effected on change of Bitcoin Closing Price. GPU is raw material of Bitcoin mining. Generally, increasing of companies' stock price means the growth of the sales of those companies' products and services. GPU's demands increases are indirectly reflected to the GPU vendors' stock price. Making an interpretation, a rise in prices of GPU has put a crimp on the mining of Bitcoin. Consequently, GPU vendors' stock price effects on change of Bitcoin Closing Price. And we confirmed U.S. dollar index futures moved in the opposite direction with change of Bitcoin Closing Price. It moved like Gold. Gold was considered as a safe asset to consumers and it means consumer think that Bitcoin is a safe asset. On the other hand, WTI oil price went Bitcoin Closing Price's way. It implies that Bitcoin are regarded to investment asset like raw materials market's product. The variables that were not significant in the analysis were search traffic of bitcoin, search traffic of ransomware, search traffic of war, memory vendor's stock price, FOMC policy interest rates. In search traffic of bitcoin, we judged that interest in Bitcoin did not lead to purchase of Bitcoin. It means search traffic of Bitcoin didn't reflect all of Bitcoin's demand. So, it implies there are some factors that regulate and mediate the Bitcoin purchase. In search traffic of ransomware, it is hard to say concern of ransomware determined the whole Bitcoin demand. Because only a few people damaged by ransomware and the percentage of hackers requiring Bitcoins was low. Also, its information security problem is events not continuous issues. Search traffic of war was not significant. Like stock market, generally it has negative in relation to war, but exceptional case like Gulf war, it moves stakeholders' profits and environment. We think that this is the same case. In memory vendor stock price, this is because memory vendors' flagship products were not VRAM which is essential for Bitcoin supply. In FOMC policy interest rates, when the interest rate is low, the surplus capital is invested in securities such as stocks. But Bitcoin' price fluctuation was large so it is not recognized as an attractive commodity to the consumers. In addition, unlike the stock market, Bitcoin doesn't have any safety policy such as Circuit breakers and Sidecar. Through this study, we verified what factors effect on change of Bitcoin Closing Price, and interpreted why such change happened. In addition, establishing the characteristics of Bitcoin as a safe asset and investment asset, we provide a guide how consumer, financial institution and government organization approach to the cryptocurrency. Moreover, corroborating the factors affecting change of Bitcoin Closing Price, researcher will get some clue and qualification which factors have to be considered in hereafter cryptocurrency study.

A Study on the Macro Analysis of Knowledge Structure of the Domestic Korean Studies for Identifying the Research Fields (국내 한국학 분야의 연구 영역 식별을 위한 거시적 지식구조 분석 연구)

  • Song, Min-Sun;Ko, Young Man
    • Journal of the Korean Society for information Management
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.221-236
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    • 2015
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the research fields constituting the knowledge structure of the Korean Studies by applying hierarchical clustering method to domestic journal papers in Korean Studies. We analyzed 3,800 papers containing Korean author keyword that were listed in 14 kinds of Korean Studies journals published in 2004-2013, which have average impact factor more than 0.5 in 2011-2013. The results of the analysis show that the central research fields are the subjects related to political & social problems based on Confucian ideas focusing on Neo-Confucianism (Seonglihak) and Realist School of Confucianism (Silhak), to the political situation associated with territorial division of the Korean peninsula, and to the history from the period of japanese colonialism to modern and contemporary. It has been also found that the temporal backgrounds of researches in domestic Korean Studies were related to the modern times and the Joseon Dynasty periods, rather than the time of the ancient and contemporary.

An Analysis of Macro Aspects Caused by Protectionism in Korea

  • Kim, Yuri;Kim, Kyunghun
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2021
  • Purpose - The global trend of protectionism has expanded since the onset of US President Donald Trump's administration in 2017. This global phenomenon has led to a significant reduction in world trade volume and a negative impact on economic development in some countries where the external sector accounts for a large proportion of GDP. Although Korea is a country vulnerable to this deteriorating trade environment, few studies have examined the relationship between protectionism and its business cycles based on Korean data. Thus, this paper investigates the impact of protectionism on Korea's business cycle. Design/methodology - To identify future implications, we conduct a structural vector autoregression (VAR) analysis using monthly Korean data from 1994 to 2015. Macroeconomic variables in the model include the industrial production index, inflation rates, exports (or net exports), interest rates, and exchange rates. For the identification of the shock reflecting the expansion of protectionism, we use an antidumping investigation (ADI) data. Since ADIs are followed generally by the imposition of antidumping tariffs, they have no contemporaneous impact on tariffs and are also contemporaneously exogenous to other endogenous variables in the VAR model. We examine two kinds of ADI shocks i) shocks on Korean exports imposed by Korea's trading partners (ADI-imposed shocks) and ii) shocks on imports imposed by the Korean government (ADI-imposing shocks). Findings - We find that Korea's exports decline sharply due to ADI-imposed shocks; the lowest point at the third month after the initial shock; and do not recover until 24 months later. Simultaneously, the inflation rate decreases. Therefore, the ADI-imposed shock can be regarded as a negative shock on the demand curve where both production and price decrease. In contrast, the ADI-imposing shock generates a different response. The net exports decline, but the inflation rate increases. These can be seen as standard responses with respect to the negative shock on the supply curve. Originality/value - We shed light on the relationship between protectionism and Korea's economic fluctuations, which is rarely addressed in previous studies. We also consider the effects of both protective policy measures on imports to Korea imposed by the Korean government and on policy measures imposed by Korea's trading partner countries on its exports.