• Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.127-134
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• 2010

This study investigated the accuracy of mean sea level pressure(MSLP) predicted by weather models around Korean Peninsula during typhoon Manyi and Usagi period in 2007. The mesoscale regional model, RDAPS, KWRF with 30 and 10 km horizontal resolution and developed high-resolution WRF models with 9 and 3 km horizontal resolutions are used to predict the features of MSLP. The predicted MSLP aspects were verified using observed results from total 35 coastal stations including AWS and ocean buoy. Although 4 models showed the reasonable MLSP results during typhoon periods, the highest resolution, 3km WRF model show the most accurate MSLP results with maximum 69% and 60% improvement with comparisons of RDAPS and KWRF, respectively.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.62 no.2
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• pp.171-178
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• 2017

Nonlinear vibrations of an Euler-Bernoulli beam resting on a nonlinear elastic foundation are discussed. In search of approximate analytical solutions, the classical multiple scales (MS) and the multiple scales Lindstedt Poincare (MSLP) methods are used. The case of primary resonance is investigated. Amplitude and phase modulation equations are obtained. Steady state solutions are considered. Frequency response curves obtained by both methods are contrasted with each other with respect to the effect of various physical parameters. For weakly nonlinear systems, MS and MSLP solutions are in good agreement. For strong hardening nonlinearities, MSLP solutions exhibit the usual jump phenomena whereas MS solutions are not reliable producing backward curves which are unphysical.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.249-249
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• 2023

Spring drought forecasting in South Korea is essential due to the sknewness of rainfall which could lead to water shortage especially in spring when managed without prediction. Therefore, drought forecasting over South Korea was performed in the current study by thoroughly searching appropriate predictors from the lagged global climate variable, mean sea level pressure(MSLP), specifically in winter season for forecasting time lag. The target predictand defined as accumulated spring precipitation(ASP) was driven by the median of 93 weather stations in South Korea. Then, it was found that a number of points of the MSLP data were significantly cross-correlated with the ASP, and the points with high correlation were regionally grouped. The grouped variables with three regions: the Arctic Ocean (R1), South Pacific (R2), and South Africa (R3) were determined. The generalized linear model(GLM) was further applied for skewed marginal distribution in drought prediction. It was shown that the applied GLM presents reasonable performance in forecasting ASP. The results concluded that the presented regionalization of the climate variable, MSLP can be a good alternative in forecasting spring drought.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.31 no.4
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• pp.297-304
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• 2009

We investigated the response of the westerly winds over the Southern Ocean (SO) to glacial boundary conditions for the Last Glacial Maximum using the CCM3 atmospheric general circulation model. In response to glacial boundary conditions, the zonally averaged maximum SO westerly winds weakened 20-35% and were displaced toward the equator by 3-4 degrees. This weakening of the SO westerly winds arose from a substantial increase in mean sea level pressure (MSLP) in the southern part of the SO around Antarctica relative to the northern part. The increase in MSLP around Antarctica is associated with a marked temperature reduction caused by an increase in sea ice cover and ice albedo feedback during the glacial time. The weakened westerly winds in the SO and their equator-ward displacement might play a role in reducing the atmospheric $CO_2$ concentration by reducing upwelling of the carbon rich deep water during the glacial time.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.47-47
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• 2023

Drought occurs due to lack of water resources over an extended period and its intensity has been magnified globally by climate change. In recent years, drought over South Korea has also been intensed, and the prediction was inevitable for the water resource management and water industry. Therefore, drought forecasting over South Korea was performed in the current study with the following procedure. First, accumulated spring precipitation(ASP) driven by the 93 weather stations in South Korea was taken with their median. Then, correlation analysis was followed between ASP and Df4m, the differences of two pair of the global winter MSLP. The 37 Df4m variables with high correlations over 0.55 was chosen and sorted into three regions. The selected Df4m variables in the same region showed high similarity, leading the multicollinearity problem. To avoid this problem, a model that performs variable selection and model fitting at once, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LASSO) was applied. The LASSO model selected 5 variables which showed a good agreement of the predicted with the observed value, R²=0.72. Other models such as multiple linear regression model and ElasticNet were also performed, but did not present a performance as good as LASSO. Therefore, LASSO model can be an appropriate model to forecast spring drought over South Korea and can be used to mange water resources efficiently.

• Atmosphere
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.287-298
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• 2012

The predictability of heavy precipitation over the Korean Peninsula is studied using THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) data. The performance of the six ensemble models is compared through the inconsistency (or jumpiness) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for MSLP, T850 and H500. Grand Ensemble (GE) of the three best ensemble models (ECMWF, UKMO and CMA) with equal weight and without bias correction is consisted. The jumpiness calculated in this study indicates that the GE is more consistent than each single ensemble model. Brier Score (BS) of precipitation also shows that the GE outperforms. The GE is used for a case study of a heavy rainfall event in Korean Peninsula on 9 July 2009. The probability forecast of precipitation using 90 members of the GE and the percentage of 90 members exceeding 90 percentile in climatological Probability Density Function (PDF) of observed precipitation are calculated. As the GE is excellent in possibility of potential detection of heavy rainfall, GE is more skillful than the single ensemble model and can lead to a heavy rainfall warning in medium-range. If the performance of each single ensemble model is also improved, GE can provide better performance.

• Atmosphere
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• v.29 no.4
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• pp.451-461
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• 2019

Medium-range forecast is highly dependent on ensemble forecast data. However, operational weather forecasters have not enough time to digest all of detailed features revealed in ensemble forecast data. To utilize the ensemble data effectively in medium-range forecasting, representative weather patterns in East Asia in this study are defined. The k-means clustering analysis is applied for the objectivity of weather patterns. Input data used daily Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) anomaly of the ECMWF ReAnalysis-Interim (ERA-Interim) during 1981~2010 (30 years) provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Using the Explained Variance (EV), the optimal study area is defined by 20~60°N, 100~150°E. The number of clusters defined by Explained Cluster Variance (ECV) is thirty (k = 30). 30 representative weather patterns with their frequencies are summarized. Weather pattern #1 occurred all seasons, but it was about 56% in summer (June~September). The relatively rare occurrence of weather pattern (#30) occurred mainly in winter. Additionally, we investigate the relationship between weather patterns and extreme weather events such as heat wave, cold wave, and heavy rainfall as well as snowfall. The weather patterns associated with heavy rainfall exceeding 110 mm day^-1 were #1, #4, and #9 with days (%) of more than 10%. Heavy snowfall events exceeding 24 cm day^-1 mainly occurred in weather pattern #28 (4%) and #29 (6%). High and low temperature events (> 34℃ and < -14℃) were associated with weather pattern #1~4 (14~18%) and #28~29 (27~29%), respectively. These results suggest that the classification of various weather patterns will be used as a reference for grouping all ensemble forecast data, which will be useful for the scenario-based medium-range ensemble forecast in the future.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.217-227
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• 2012

On 31 March 2007, the abnormal wave occurred along western coast of Korean including Yeonggwang. In this paper, this event is studied using available field measurement data for the event analysis and numerical model for reproducing the unknown waves. We found several 1-min interval tidal elevation and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) data along the western coast of Korea and analyzed it using wavelet technique. We computed the arrival time and the propagation direction of abnormal wave using wavelet results and performed the numerical simulation using 2 dimensional shallow water wave model. The sea level under the forcing of air pressure jump was obviously amplified by the Proudman resonant effect. The computed sea levels compared with observations are underestimated, but the order of arrival time at the tidal station showed good agreement.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.17-27
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• 1995

One of the world widely used methods in determining the intensity of a typhoon is Dvorak's technique. By applying the Dvorak's method to the typhoons which affected our country in various degress and extents without regard to their individual severity, we estimated their intensity for six different cases of typhoons. We have derived a regression equation of estimating the central pressures and maximum wind speeds for the six selected typhoons. Their intensity was estimated from the Dvork's method using GMS satellite image data. The derived equation has tested to typhoon ORCHID and the computed values have been compared with the direct observations in its central pressure and maximum wind speed. The computed values in the Dvork's method are smaller in their magnitudes than the observed corresponding values. But their relative magnitudes do not change so much at each different time step. But our results are significantly different from those of NOAA and JMA. The cause of differences are not investigated in depth in this analysis.