• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
• /
• v.33 no.1
• /
• pp.75-87
• /
• 2017

The purpose of this study is to utilize the system dynamics to carry out a medium and long-term forecasting analysis of the bunker price. In order to secure accurate bunker price forecast, a quantitative analysis was established based on the casual loop diagram between various variables that affects bunker price. Based on various configuration variables such as crude oil price which affects crude oil consumption & production, GDP and exchange rate which influences economic changes and freight rate which is decided by supply and demand in shipping and logistic market were used in accordance with System Dynamics to forecast bunker price and then objectivity was verified through MAPEs. Based on the result of this study, bunker price is expected to rise until 2029 compared to 2016 but it will not be near the surge sighted in 2012. This study holds value in two ways. First, it supports shipping companies to efficiently manage its fleet, offering comprehensive bunker price risk management by presenting structural relationship between various variables affecting bunker price. Second, rational result derived from bunker price forecast by utilizing dynamic casual loop between various variables.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
• /
• v.9 no.4
• /
• pp.404-417
• /
• 2017

The present study numerically analyzed the dynamic behavior of 3D framed structures subject to impulsive slamming forces by violent breaking waves. The structures were modeled using multiple lumped masses for the vertical projections of each member, and the slamming forces from the breaking waves were concentrated on these lumped masses. A numerical algorithm was developed to properly incorporate the slamming forces into a dynamic analysis to numerically determine the structural responses. Then, the validity of the numerical analysis was verified using the results of an existing hydraulic experiment. The numerical and experimental results for various model structures were generally in good agreement. The uncertainties concerning the properties of the breaking waves used in the verification are also discussed here.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
• /
• v.18 no.3
• /
• pp.109-114
• /
• 2016

PURPOSES : The demand for extending national highways is increasing, but traffic monitoring is hindered because of resource limitations. Hence, this study classified highway segments into 5 types to improve the efficiency of short-term traffic count planning. METHODS : The traffic volume trends of 880 highway segments were classified through R-squared and linear regression analyses; the steadiness of traffic volume trends was evaluated through coefficient of variance (COV), and the normality of the data were determined through the Shapiro-Wilk W-test. RESULTS : Of the 880 segments, 574 segments had relatively low COV and were classified as type 1 segments, and 123 and 64 segments with increasing and decreasing traffic volume trends were classified as type 2 and type 3 segments, respectively; 80 segments that failed the normality test were classified as type 4, and the remaining 39 were classified as type 5 segments. CONCLUSIONS : A theoretical basis for biennial count planning was established. Biennial count is recommended for types 1~4 because their mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) are approximately 10%. For type 5 (MAPE =19.26%), the conventional annual count can be continued. The results of this analysis can reduce the traffic monitoring budget.

• The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
• /
• v.26 no.1E
• /
• pp.8-13
• /
• 2007

It has long been known that high-frequency sensorineural hearing loss (HFHL) can contribute to difficulty in speech understanding by elderly listeners. This study evaluated the relative contribution of HFHL and age to speech understanding. Subjects included adult middle-aged and old groups with normal hearing or with limited HFHL. The Hearing-in-Noise-Test (HINT) was used to measure speech perception performance in quiet and in noise. The middle-aged groups showed significant effects of HFHL for speech intelligibility in quiet and in noise, but the old groups showed the difference in quiet only due to high frequency hearing. The results suggest that HFHL may affect speech intelligibility differently with age and therefore hearing aid selection needs to take into account the influence of age.

• Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
• /
• v.10 no.1
• /
• pp.7-12
• /
• 2019

The application of neural networks to stock forecasting has received a great deal of attention because no assumption about a suitable mathematical model has to be made prior to forecasting and they are capable of extracting useful information from data, which is required to describe nonlinear input-output relations of stock forecasting. The paper builds neural network models to forecast daily KOrea composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI), and their performance is demonstrated. MAPEs of NN1 model show 0.427 and 0.627 in its learning and test, respectively. Based on the predicted KOSPI price, the paper proposes an alpha trading for trades in Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) that fluctuate with the KOSPI200. The alpha trading is tested with data from 125 trade days, and its trade return of 7.16 ~ 15.29 % suggests that the proposed alpha trading is effective.