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포트폴리오 최적화와 주가예측을 이용한 투자 모형 (Stock Trading Model using Portfolio Optimization and Forecasting Stock Price Movement)

  • 박강희;신현정
    • 대한산업공학회지
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    • 제39권6호
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    • pp.535-545
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    • 2013
  • The goal of stock investment is earning high rate or return with stability. To accomplish this goal, using a portfolio that distributes stocks with high rate of return with less variability and a stock price prediction model with high accuracy is required. In this paper, three methods are suggested to require these conditions. First of all, in portfolio re-balance part, Max-Return and Min-Risk (MRMR) model is suggested to earn the largest rate of return with stability. Secondly, Entering/Leaving Rule (E/L) is suggested to upgrade portfolio when particular stock's rate of return is low. Finally, to use outstanding stock price prediction model, a model based on Semi-Supervised Learning (SSL) which was suggested in last research was applied. The suggested methods were validated and applied on stocks which are listed in KOSPI200 from January 2007 to August 2008.

Decision-Making of Consumers with Higher Pain of Payment: Moderating Role of Pain of Payment When Payment Conditions Differ

  • Koh, Geumjoung;Sohn, Young Woo;Rim, Hye Bin
    • 감성과학
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    • 제21권4호
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    • pp.3-10
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    • 2018
  • The present study explores two relationships: first, between number of payment and payment option preference, and second, total sum and payment option preference, with pain of payment as a mediator variable. The analyses revealed that consumers who feel higher pain of payment preferred the pennies-a-day pricing to the aggregate pricing when the per-payment price is low. Consumers who experience higher pain of payment prefer to pay in small frequent installments because they feel the small per-payment price can be comparable to daily expense. Consumers who experienced higher pain of payment preferred aggregate pricing to pennies-a-day pricing when the per-payment price was high. When the per-payment price is high, it is no longer comparable to daily expense, thus leading to greater pain of payment among consumers. The study discusses the implications for mechanism of pain of payment on payment option preference.

System Dynamics Modeling of Korean Lease Contract Chonsei

  • Myung-Gi Moon;Moonseo Park;Hyun-Soo Lee;Sungjoo Hwang
    • 국제학술발표논문집
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    • The 5th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • pp.151-157
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    • 2013
  • Since the sub-prime mortgage crisis from the US in 2008, the Korean housing market has plummeted. However, the deposit prices of the Korean local lease contract, Chonsei, had been increasing. This increase of Chonsei prices can be a threat to low-income people, most of whom prefer to live in houses with a Chonsei contract. In the housing and Chonsei market, there are many stakeholders with their own interest, hence, simple thoughts about housing and Chonsei market, such as more house supply, will decrease house price, would not work in a real complex housing market. In this research, we suggests system dynamics conceptual model which consists of causal-loop-diagrams for the Chonsei market as well as the housing market. In conclusion, the Chonsei price has its own homeostasis characteristics and different price behavior with housing price in the short and long term period. We found that unless government does not have a structural causation mind in implementing policies in the real estate market, the government may not attain their intended effectiveness on both markets.

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서비스 명성에 따른 준거가격광고 효과 (Effects of Reference Price Advertisements by Service Reputation)

  • 박민숙;천명환
    • 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
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    • 제8권9호
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    • pp.124-132
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    • 2008
  • 경제적 환경의 변화와 인터넷 등의 다양한 유통경로 등장으로 인해 경쟁이 심화되면서 가격은 아주 강력한 마케팅 수단이 되고 있다. 이에 따라 가격할인 등의 가격전략을 통해 소비자의 구매행동을 강화하는 현상을 볼 수 있는데, 많은 광고에서 가격할인 정보를 제시하면서 준거가격을 함께 제시하는 전략을 활발하게 사용하고 있다. 이에 따라 많은 연구들이 준거가격제시에 따른 광고효과를 검증하였는데, 본 연구에서는 기존의 제품에 한정된 준거가격 연구에서 확장하여 서비스 경우에 준거가격을 제시함에 따른 효과를 검증하고, 서비스의 명성에 따라 준거가격제시 방법에 따른 광고효과의 차이를 검증한다. 서비스의 명성과 준거가격제시 방법에 따른 실험을 설계하여 분석을 실시하였다. 분석결과, 서비스 광고에서 준거가격을 제시하는 경우에 가격태도 및 이용의도가 높은 것으로 나타났는데, 서비스 명성이 높은 경우에는 준거가격을 제시하는 것 보다 할인율을 표시하는 것이 더 효과가 높으며, 서비스 명성이 낮은 경우에는 준거가격 제시만으로 광고효과가 높아짐을 볼 수 있다. 이를 통해 서비스 경우에는 그 명성에 따라 준거가격을 제시하는 방법과 관련한 전략적 관점이 필요함을 알 수 있다.

전력시장체제하에서의 전력품질제어 매커니즘에 대한 모델링 (A Model for Power Quality Control Mechanism for Electric Power Market)

  • 이근준;윤석호
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 2002년도 추계학술대회 논문집 전력기술부문
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    • pp.15-19
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    • 2002
  • To provide a specified power quality under electric market system is becoming an important issue for customers and utility company. However, there is no realistic infra-structure to design a power system for the specified power quality. Present electric market is operating under the economic point of view. The low price could be attractive. but the effect of low price and low power quality for the long time should be considered for the system safety. This paper presents a model which conceptualize the dynamic power quality control mechanism to minimize total cost of a society which is affected electric power quality. This model aims to produce a basic infra-structure to balance cost and quality under the electric market system.

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시공간자기회귀(STAR)모형을 이용한 부동산 가격 추정에 관한 연구 (An Empirical Study on the Estimation of Housing Sales Price using Spatiotemporal Autoregressive Model)

  • 전해정;박헌수
    • 부동산연구
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    • 제24권1호
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    • pp.7-14
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    • 2014
  • 본 연구는 2006년 1월부터 2013년 6월까지의 서울시 아파트 개별 실거래가격에 대한 시공간 자료로 시공간자기상관의 문제를 헤도닉가격결정모형에 의한 통상최소자승법(OLS), 시간효과를 고려한 시간자기회귀모형(TAR), 공간효과를 고려한 공간자기회귀모형(SAR)과 시공간자기회귀모형(STAR)을 이용해 아파트 가격 추정결과를 비교분석하였다. 실증분석결과, STAR모형이 기존의 OLS에 비해 수정결정계수가 약 10% 증가하였으며, 추정오차는 약 18% 감소한 것으로 나타나 시공간효과를 고려했을 때 아파트 가격 추정이 기존모형에 비해 정확함을 알 수가 있었다. STAR모형 분석결과, 아파트 매매가격에 전용면적(-), 아파트연수(-), 저층더미(-), 개별난방(-), 도시가스(-), 재건축더미(+), 계단식(+), 단지규모(+)등이 영향을 주는 것으로 나타났으며 다른 분석방법론과도 대부분 같은 부호를 나타냈다. 시공간자기회귀모형을 이용해 부동산 가격을 추정시 정부 당국자는 부동산시장의 동향을 정확히 파악해 정책을 수립 집행해 정책효율을 높을 수 있고 투자자의 입장에서는 객관적인 정보를 바탕으로 합리적 투자를 할 수 있다.

서울지역 고등학생들의 외식서비스 특성에 대한 중요인지도와 수행만족도 비교 (Importance-performance Analysis of High School Students in Seoul towards Restaurant Service Attributes)

  • 양일선;이진미;차진아;한재정
    • 한국식생활문화학회지
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    • 제11권5호
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    • pp.663-671
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    • 1996
  • The purpose of this study was to compare high-school students importance and performance toward restaurant service attributes for the marketing strategy development. Specific objectives were to: a) investigate restaurant patronage characteristics of high school students; b) identify the difference of patronage behavior among three types of restaurants; and c) analyze the importance and performance among three types of restaurants. A questionnaire was developed and hand-delivered to 400 students enrolled 9th grade in 4 different high schools in Seoul. A total of 320 students (80%) was responded to this study. The questionnaire was composed of two parts with 47 restaurant service attribute statements. Results of this study were as follows: 1. A total of 57% was female and 61% of respondents spent less than ₩5,000 per week on eating out. 2. The frequency of visiting the low-priced restaurant was 8.9 times per week. 3. Reasons for being a patronage to low- (${\geq}$₩2,000) and mid-priced ( <₩2,000 and ${\geq}$₩5,000) restaurants were hunger, appointment, and seeking favorites with freinds but the reason for high-priced (<₩5,000) restaurants was celebrating special days with parents. 4. The main source of information for selecting restaurants was family and friends, T.V. advertising, and bulletin board. 5. For the low-priced restaurants, food, hygiene, price, and location were rated as important; location, price, menu, and food were rated as satisfied. 6. For the mid-priced restaurants, hygiene, food, price, and menu were rated as important; food, hygiene, service, and menu were rated as satisfied. 7. For the high-priced restaurants, hygiene, food, and atmosphere were rated as important; food, hygiene, atmosphere, and menu were as satisfied. 8. According to paired t-test, the score gap between importance and performance was the highest in the hygiene attribute; differences were high with the low-priced and low with high-priced restaurants.

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뉴 미디어 시대 패션소비자의 정보 탐색과 공유 (Fashion consumers' information search and sharing in new media age)

  • 신현주;이규혜
    • 복식문화연구
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    • 제26권2호
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    • pp.251-263
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    • 2018
  • As mobile shopping has increased in the new media age, fashion consumers' decision making and product consumption processes have changed. The volume of consumer-driven information has expanded since media and social networking sites have enabled consumers to share information they obtain. The purpose of this study was to determine the factors affecting information searching strategies and information sharing about fashion products. An online survey collected data from 466 respondents, relating to the influence of product price level and consumer SNS commitment level on information search and information sharing. Experimental design of three product price level and two consumer SNS commitment level was used. Analysis of the data identified factors in fashion information searching as ongoing searching, prepurchase web portal information search, and prepurchase marketing information search. For low-price fashion products, prepurchase product-detail influenced intention to share information. For mid-priced products, ongoing search significantly affected intention to share information. Both ongoing search and prepurchase marketing information search showed significant effects for high-price products. Consumers who are more committed to SNS engaged in significantly more searching in all aspects of information search factors. Significant interaction effect was detected for consumer SNS commitment level and product price level. When consumers with low consumer SNS commitment search for information on lower-priced fashion products, they are less likely do a prepurchase web portal information search.

품패개격촉소신식대소비자질량인지적영향(品牌价格促销信息对消费者质量认知的影响) (The Effect of Price Promotional Information about Brand on Consumer's Quality Perception: Conditioning on Pretrial Brand)

  • Lee, Min-Hoon;Lim, Hang-Seop
    • 마케팅과학연구
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    • 제19권3호
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    • pp.17-27
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    • 2009
  • 典型的价格促销是指降低一定数量产品的价格或以相同的价 格获得更多数量的产品, 从而增加价值和创造经济的激励购买. 价格促销经常用来鼓励没有消费过产品或服务的用户试用产品或服务. 因此, 理解价格促销对那些从来没有使用过促销品牌的消费者的此品牌质量认知的影响是很重要的. 然而, 如果消费者通过价格促销获得的产品的质量不好, 促销可能达不到用经济的刺激方法来增加销售的效果. 相反则有可能发生. 具体来说, 通过价格促销消费者产生低的质量的认知会削弱经济的和心理上的激励, 减少购买的可能性. 因此, 对市场营销人员来说理解品牌的价格促销信息如何影响消费者对此品牌的质量的不良认知是非常重要的. 先前的有关价格促销对质量认知的影响的研究有不一致的解释. 一些是关注价格促销对消费者认知的不利影响. 但是其他的研究显示价格促销并没有提高消费者对品牌的不良认知. 之前的研究发现这些不一致的结果和价格促销曝光的时机以及相关的试验得出的质量评估有关. 而且, 消费者是否经历过产品促销都可能会调节这些影响. 一些研究把产品类别的不同作为基本的因素. 本研究的目的是探讨在不同的情况下, 价格促销信息对消费者的不良的质量认知产生的影响. 作者控制了促销曝光的时机, 过去的各种促销形式以及信息发布的方式. 与以往的研究不同, 作者通过控制以前个人使用此产品的经验的潜在调节作用来测试事先设定限制的价格促销的影响. 这样的操作可以解决相关的有可能产生的争议. 这种方法对实际工作方面也是有意义的. 价格促销不仅适用于已存在的目标消费者, 而且可以鼓励没有使用过产品和服务的消费者尝试此产品或服务. 因此, 对市场营销人员来说理解品牌的价格促销信息如何影响消费者对此品牌的质量的不良认知是非常重要的. 如果没有使用过这个品牌的消费者通过价格促销获得的产品的质量不好, 促销可能达不到用经济的刺激方法来增加销售的效果. 相反则有可能发生. 另外, 如果价格促销结束, 购买了这个产品的消费者可能会出现明显的减少再购买行为. 通过文献回顾, 假设1用来探讨消费者通过过去的价格促销获得的质量认知的调节作用. 消费者对没有使用过的品牌的价格促销而产生的质量认知的影响会被此品牌过去的价格促销活动所调节. 换句话说, 消费者会对没有进行过价格促销的没有使用过的品牌产生不良的质量认知. 假设2-1:未使用过的品牌进行首次价格促销的时候, 价格促销的信息发布的方式将影响价格促销的成败. 假设2-2:消费者越不在意价格促销的原因, 越容易对产品的质量产生不良的认知. 通过测试1, 简要地解释了产品和品牌在提供四种价格促销形式之前并解释说明了每种价格促销形式. WAVEX这个虚拟品牌的质量的认知被评估为7. 网球拍被选中的原因是由于选定的产品组必须过去几乎没有价格促销活动来消除促销的平均次数对价格促销信息的影响, 正如Raghubir和Corfman(1999)所提出的. 测试2也用网球拍作为产品组, 主持测试2的管理者与测试1相同. 随着测试1, 选择了对产品组熟悉而对产品不熟悉的受访者. 每个受访者被分配到代表WAVEX价格促销的两种不同信息发布方式的两组中的一组. 在评估WAVEX的质量认知为7以前, 受访者看了每个促销信息. 不熟悉的实验品牌的价格促销对消费者的质量认知的影响被证明为会被以前有过或没有价格促销活动所调节. 与过去的促销行为一致是使品牌评估变得更糟的不良影响的重要变量. 如果此品牌从未进行过价格促销, 价格促销活动会对消费者的质量认知产生不良的影响. 第二, 不熟悉的品牌进行首次价格促销时, 促销信息的发布方式会影响公司促销的成败. 当消费者进行性格归因和情境归因的比较时, 质量认知的不良影响会更大. 与先前主要关注具有或不具有情境/性格归因中良好或不良的动机的研究不同, 本研究的焦点是检验如果公司提出了具有说服性的理由, 即使消费者在价格促销行为中有性格归因, 情境归因也可以被推断出的事实. 这种方法, 在学术方面取得了很大的成果, 意义在于它运用非数学的问题来解释固定和调整过程而不像以前的研究大部分是把它用于数学问题来解释. 换句话说, 根据基本属性错误, 有很大的倾向去性格地归因其他的行为. 当这种情况出现在价格促销时, 我们可以推断出消费者很有可能性格地归因公司的价格促销行为. 反而, 即使在这种情况下, 公司可以调整消费者的锚定性来降低性格归因的可能性. 另外, 不像多数对价格促销的长/短期影响的以往的研究, 只考虑价格促销对消费者的购买行为影响, 本 研究测试对质量认知的影响, 一个影响消费者购买行为的因素. 这些结果在实际工作方面有重要启示. 本研究的结果可以作为新产品有效的提供促销信息的指南. 如果品牌要避免错误的暗示, 比如在施行价格促销战略时被认为是产品的质量不好, 一定要为促销提供清晰合理的理由. 尤其是对那些以前没有进行过价格促销活动的公司来说, 提供明确的理由尤其重要. 不一致的行为可以导致消费者的不信任和焦虑. 这也是无止境的价格战的风险的重要因素之一. 没有事先通知的价格促销会使消费者怀疑, 但不会影响市场份额.

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소비자의 배추 가격민감도와 구매 속성 분석 (A Study on Price Sensitivity and Purchasing Attribute of Chinese Cabbage)

  • 하두종;이상용;조용빈
    • 농촌지도와개발
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    • 제21권2호
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    • pp.81-99
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    • 2014
  • 배추는 우리나라에서 가장 중요한 채소이지만 매년 수급불안에 가격은 등락을 계속하고 있다. 그러나 가격안정화를 위한 정책을 수립 할 때 어느 가격 이상이 되어야 수입을 할 것인지 또는 가격이 하락하여 어느 적정가격 이하이면 수매를 통한 가격안정화를 할 것인지에 대한 적절한 기준이 없었다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 도시소비자의 배추 가격민감도를 조사 분석하여 소비자가 체감하고 있는 적정 가격기준을 가격민감도분석(PSM; Price Sensitivity Measurement)을 이용하여 분석한 다음 제시하고, 생산자에게는 소비자가 구입하고자 하는 배추의 속성을 제공하고자 한다. 배추 가격 지불의사 적정금액은 포기당 1,991~2,018원사이로 분석되었다. 따라서 시장에서 형성되는 소비자 가격도 1,991~2,018원 사이에서 형성이 되도록 농민은 생산을 관계당국은 유통비용을 조정한다면 생산자와 소비자 모두 만족할 수 있을 것이다. 소비자가 수용 가능한 가격 범위는 포기당 하한가격은 1,472원(PMC), 상한가격은 2,714원(PME) 사이로 분석되었다. 최소 1,472원이 되도록 시장을 형성하고 최대 2,714원 이상이 되었을 때 수입을 고려해야 할 것이다. 배추 구입시 가장 중요한 속성은 맛이며, 크기는 3kg이 가장 적당한 것으로 나타났다.