• 제목/요약/키워드: Loss Models

검색결과 1,236건 처리시간 0.027초

일반화 선형모형을 이용한 수출보험의 지급비율 추정 (Estimation of the Expected Loss per Exposure of Export Insurance using GLM)

  • 주효찬;이항석
    • 응용통계연구
    • /
    • 제26권6호
    • /
    • pp.857-871
    • /
    • 2013
  • 한국을 비롯한 많은 국가에서 수출보험은 수출증진을 위한 수단으로 이용되어 왔다. 무역자유화를 위한 세계무역기구의 출범 이후에도 수출보험은 여전히 수출증진을 위한 주요 수단으로 인식된다. 본 논문은 국내 기업의 해외법인이 체결한 단기수출보험의 자료를 이용하여 수출보험과 관련한 위험요소(수입자의 신용등급, 결제기간, 모기업의 크기)의 각 등급에 따른 보험가입금액 대비 보험금 지급비율을 산출한다. 이를 위해 일반화 선형모형을 활용, 모델 선택과정을 거쳐 사고빈도(frequency)와 사고심도(severity)를 각각 음이항분포와 로그노말분포로 적합한다. 그리고 일반화 선형모형의 분석결과를 바탕으로 사고빈도와 사고심도에 미치는 각 위험요소의 등급에 따른 계약건수 대비 평균 사고발생 비율과 보험가입금액 대비 평균 지급비율을 제시한다. 이후 이를 통합함으로써 각 위험요소의 등급별 지급비율의 기댓값을 추정한다. 그리고 이 결과를 이용하여 요율산정에 대한 시사점을 논의한다.

간단한 손실모델을 이용한 단단축류압축기 탈설계점 성능예측 (Off-Design Performance Prediction of an Axial Flow Compressor Stage Using Simple Loss Correlations)

  • 김병남;정명균
    • 대한기계학회논문집
    • /
    • 제18권12호
    • /
    • pp.3357-3368
    • /
    • 1994
  • Total pressure losses required to calculate the total-to-total efficiency are estimated by integrating empirical loss coefficients of four loss mechanisms along the mean-line of blades as follows; blade profile loss, secondary flow loss, end wall loss and tip clearance loss. The off-design points are obtained on the basis of Howell's off-design performance of a compressor cascade. Also, inlet-outlet air angles and camber angle are obtained from semi-empirical relations of transonic airfoils' minimum loss incidence and deviation angles. And nominal point is replaced by the design point. It is concluded that relatively simple loss models and Howell's off-design data permit us to calculate the off-design performance with satisfactory accuracy. And this method can be easily extended for off-design performance prediction of multi-stage compressors.

Path Loss Prediction Using an Ensemble Learning Approach

  • Beom Kwon;Eonsu Noh
    • 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
    • /
    • 제29권2호
    • /
    • pp.1-12
    • /
    • 2024
  • 경로 손실(Path Loss)을 예측하는 것은 셀룰러 네트워크(Cellular Network)에서 기지국(Base Station) 의 설치 위치 선정 등 무선망 설계에 중요한 요인 중 하나다. 기존에는 기지국의 최적 설치 위치를 결정하기 위해 수많은 현장 테스트(Field Tests)를 통해 경로 손실 값을 측정했다. 따라서 측정에 많은 시간이 소요된다는 단점이 있었다. 이러한 문제를 해결하기 위해 본 연구에서는 머신러닝(Machine Learning, ML) 기반의 경로 손실 예측 방법을 제안한다. 특히, 경로 손실 예측 성능을 향상시키기 위해서 앙상블 학습(Ensemble Learning) 접근법을 적용하였다. 부트스트랩 데이터 세트(Bootstrap Dataset)을 활용하여 서로 다른 하이퍼파라미터(Hyperparameter) 구성을 갖는 모델들을 얻고, 이 모델들을 앙상블하여 최종 모델을 구축했다. 인터넷상에 공개된 경로 손실 데이터 세트를 활용하여 제안하는 앙상블 기반 경로 손실 예측 방법과 다양한 ML 기반 방법들의 성능을 평가 및 비교했다. 실험 결과, 제안하는 방법이 기존 방법들보다 우수한 성능을 달성하였으며, 경로 손실 값을 가장 정확하게 예측할 수 있다는 것을 입증하였다.

유역내 네가지 강수손실 성분들의 합성 (Combining Four Elements of Precipitation Loss in a Watershed)

  • 유주환
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국수자원학회 2012년도 학술발표회
    • /
    • pp.200-204
    • /
    • 2012
  • In engineering hydrology, an estimation of precipitation loss is one of the most important issues for successful modeling to forecast flooding or evaluate water resources for both surface and subsurface flows in a watershed. An accurate estimation of precipitation loss is required for successful implementation of rainfall-runoff models. Precipitation loss or hydrological abstraction may be defined as the portion of the precipitation that does not contribute to the direct runoff. It may consist of several loss elements or abstractions of precipitation such as infiltration, depression storage, evaporation or evapotranspiration, and interception. A composite loss rate model that combines four loss rates over time is derived as a lumped form of a continuous time function for a storm event. The composite loss rate model developed is an exponential model similar to Horton's infiltration model, but its parameters have different meanings. In this model, the initial loss rate is related to antecedent precipitation amounts prior to a storm event, and the decay factor of the loss rate is a composite decay of four losses.

  • PDF

Integration of GIS-based RUSLE model and SPOT 5 Image to analyze the main source region of soil erosion

  • LEE Geun-Sang;PARK Jin-Hyeog;HWANG Eui-Ho;CHAE Hyo-Sok
    • 대한원격탐사학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 대한원격탐사학회 2005년도 Proceedings of ISRS 2005
    • /
    • pp.357-360
    • /
    • 2005
  • Soil loss is widely recognized as a threat to farm livelihoods and ecosystem integrity worldwide. Soil loss prediction models can help address long-range land management planning under natural and agricultural conditions. Even though it is hard to find a model that considers all forms of erosion, some models were developed specifically to aid conservation planners in identifying areas where introducing soil conservation measures will have the most impact on reducing soil loss. Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) computes the average annual erosion expected on hillslopes by multiplying several factors together: rainfall erosivity (R), soil erodibility (K), slope length and steepness (LS), cover management (C), and support practice (P). The value of these factors is determined from field and laboratory experiments. This study calculated soil erosion using GIS-based RUSLE model in Imha basin and examined soil erosion source area using SPOT 5 high-resolution satellite image and land cover map. As a result of analysis, dry field showed high-density soil erosion area and we could easily investigate source area using satellite image. Also we could examine the suitability of soil erosion area applying field survey method in common areas (dry field & orchard area) that are difficult to confirm soil erosion source area using satellite image.

  • PDF

NEW WALL DRAG AND FORM LOSS MODELS FOR ONE-DIMENSIONAL DISPERSED TWO-PHASE FLOW

  • KIM, BYOUNG JAE;LEE, SEUNG WOOK;KIM, KYUNG DOO
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
    • /
    • 제47권4호
    • /
    • pp.416-423
    • /
    • 2015
  • It had been disputed how to apply wall drag to the dispersed phase in the framework of the conventional two-fluid model for two-phase flows. Recently, Kim et al. [1] introduced the volume-averaged momentum equation based on the equation of a solid/fluid particle motion. They showed theoretically that for dispersed two-phase flows, the overall two-phase pressure drop by wall friction must be apportioned to each phase, in proportion to each phase fraction. In this study, the validity of the proposed wall drag model is demonstrated though one-dimensional (1D) simulations. In addition, it is shown that the existing form loss model incorrectly predicts the motion of the dispersed phase. A new form loss model is proposed to overcome that problem. The newly proposed form loss model is tested in the region covering the lower plenum and the core in a nuclear power plant. As a result, it is shown that the new models can correctly predict the relative velocity of the dispersed phase to the surrounding fluid velocity in the core with spacer grids.

Medetomidine에 유발된 정좌반사소실에 대한 Tricyclic Isoxazole 유도체들의 항우울성에 관한 3D-QSAR 분석 (3D-QSAR Analysis on Antidepressant Activity of Tricyclic Isoxazole Analogues against Medetomidine-induced Loss of Righting)

  • 최민성;성낙도;명평근
    • 약학회지
    • /
    • 제55권2호
    • /
    • pp.98-105
    • /
    • 2011
  • To search the minimum structural requirement of tricyclic isoxazole analogues (1~30) as new class potent antidepressant, thee-dimensional quanti- tative-structure relationship (3D-QSAR) models between substituents ($R_1{\sim}R_5$) of tricyclic isoxazoles and their antidepressant activity against medetomidine-induced loss of righting were performed and discussed quantitatively using comparative molecular field analysis (CoMFA) and comparative molecular similarity indies analysis (CoMSIA) methods. The correlativity and predictability ($r^2$=0.484 and $q^2$=0.947) of CoMSIA-2 model were higher than those of the rest models. The inhibitory activity against medetomidine-induced loss of righting was dependent on electrostatic field (43.4%), hydrophobic field (35.3%), and steric field (21.2%) of tricyclic isoxazoles. From the CoMSIA-2 contour maps, it is predicted that the antidepressant activity of potent antidepressants against medetomidine-induced loss of righting will be able to increase by the substituents ($R_1{\sim}R_5$) which were in accord with CoMSIA field.

Potential soil loss evaluation using the RUSLE/RUSLE-runoff models in Wadi Saida watershed (N-W Algeria)

  • Cherif, Kessar;Yahia, Nasrallah;Bilal, Bilssag
    • Advances in environmental research
    • /
    • 제9권4호
    • /
    • pp.251-273
    • /
    • 2020
  • Soil degradation has become a major worldwide environmental problem, particularly in arid and semi-arid climate zones due to irregular rainfall and the intensity of storms that frequently generate heavy flooding. The main objective of this study is the use of geographic information system and remote sensing techniques to quantify and to map the soil losses in the Wadi Saida watershed (624 ㎢) through the revised universal soil loss equation model and a proposed model based on the surface erosive runoff. The results Analysis revealed that the Wadi Saida watershed showed moderate to moderately high soil loss, between 0 and 1000 t/㎢/year. In the northern part of the basin in the region of Sidi Boubkeur and the mountains of Daia; which are characterized by steep slopes, values can reach up to 3000 t/㎢/year. The two models in comparison showed a good correlation with R = 0.95 and RMSE = 0.43; the use of the erosive surface runoff parameter is effective to estimate the rate of soil loss in the watersheds. The problem of soil erosion requires serious interventions, particularly in basins with disturbances and aggressive climatic parameters. Good agricultural practices and forest preservation areas play an important role in soil conservation.

A Realistic Path Loss Model for Real-time Communication in the Urban Grid Environment for Vehicular Ad hoc Networks

  • Mostajeran, Ehsan;Noor, Rafidah Md;Anisi, Mohammad Hossein;Ahmedy, Ismail;Khan, Fawad Ali
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
    • /
    • 제11권10호
    • /
    • pp.4698-4716
    • /
    • 2017
  • Wireless signal transmission is influenced by environmental effects. These effects have also been challenging for Vehicular Ad hoc Network (VANET) in real-time communication. More specifically, in an urban environment, with high mobility among vehicles, a vehicle's status from the transmitter can instantly trigger from line of sight to non-line of sight, which may cause loss of real-time communication. In order to overcome this, a deterministic signal propagation model is required, which has less complexity and more feasibility of implementation. Hence, we propose a realistic path loss model which adopts ray tracing technique for VANET in a grid urban environment with less computational complexity. To evaluate the model, it is applied to a vehicular simulation scenario. The results obtained are compared with different path loss models in the same scenario based on path loss value and application layer performance analysis. The proposed path loss model provides higher loss value in dB compared to other models. Nevertheless, the performance of vehicle-vehicle communication, which is evaluated by the packet delivery ratio with different vehicle transmitter density verifies improvement in real-time vehicle-vehicle communication. In conclusion, we present a realistic path loss model that improves vehicle-vehicle wireless real-time communication in the grid urban environment.

Improvement in the DNBR Modeling of RETRAN for Safety Analyses of Westinghouse Nuclear Power Plants

  • Cheong, Ae-Ju;Kim, Yo-Han
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
    • /
    • 제34권6호
    • /
    • pp.596-609
    • /
    • 2002
  • Korea Electric Power Research Institute has developed the in-house safety analysis methodologies for non-LOCA(Loss Of Coolant Accident) events based on codes and methodologies of vendors and Electric Power Research Institute . According to the new methodologies, analyses of system responses and calculation of DNBR(Departure from Nucleate Boiling Ratio) during the transient have been carried out with RETRAN code and a sub-channel analysis code, respectively. However, it takes too much time to calculate DNBR for each case using the two codes to search for the limiting case from sensitivity study. To simplify the search for the limiting case, accordingly, RETRAN code has been modified to roughly calculate DNBR using hot channel modeling. The W-3 correlation is already included in RETRAN as one of the auxiliary DNBR models. However, WRB-1 and WRB-2 correlations required to analyze some Westinghouse type fuels are not considered in RETRAN DNBR models. In this paper, the RETRAN DNBR models using the correlations have been developed and the partial and complete loss of forced reactor coolant flow events have been analyzed for Yonggwang units 1 and 2 with the new methodologies to validate the models. The results of the analyses have been compared with those mentioned in the chapter 15 of the Final Safety Analysis Report.