• 제목/요약/키워드: Long-term variability

검색결과 278건 처리시간 0.03초

PM10 장기노출 예측모형 개발을 위한 국가 대기오염측정자료의 탐색과 활용 (Exploration and Application of Regulatory PM10 Measurement Data for Developing Long-term Prediction Models in South Korea)

  • 이선주;김호;김선영
    • 한국대기환경학회지
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    • 제32권1호
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    • pp.114-126
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    • 2016
  • Many cohort studies have reported associations of individual-level long-term exposures to $PM_{10}$ and health outcomes. Individual exposures were often estimated by using exposure prediction models relying on $PM_{10}$ data measured at national regulatory monitoring sites. This study explored spatial and temporal characteristics of regulatory $PM_{10}$ measurement data in South Korea and suggested $PM_{10}$ concentration metrics as long-term exposures for assessing health effects in cohort studies. We obtained hourly $PM_{10}$ data from the National Institute of Environmental Research for 2001~2012 in South Korea. We investigated spatial distribution of monitoring sites using the density and proximity in each of the 16 metropolitan cities and provinces. The temporal characteristics of $PM_{10}$ measurement data were examined by annual/seasonal/diurnal patterns across urban background monitoring sites after excluding Asian dust days. For spatial characteristics of $PM_{10}$ measurement data, we computed coefficient of variation (CV) and coefficient of divergence (COD). Based on temporal and spatial investigation, we suggested preferred long-term metrics for cohort studies. In 2010, 294 urban background monitoring sites were located in South Korea with a site over an area of $415.0km^2$ and distant from another site by 31.0 km on average. Annual average $PM_{10}$ concentrations decreased by 19.8% from 2001 to 2012, and seasonal $PM_{10}$ patterns were consistent over study years with higher concentrations in spring and winter. Spatial variability was relatively small with 6~19% of CV and 21~46% of COD across 16 metropolitan cities and provinces in 2010. To maximize spatial coverage and reflect temporal and spatial distributions, our suggestion for $PM_{10}$ metrics representing long-term exposures was the average for one or multiple years after 2009. This study provides the knowledge of all available $PM_{10}$ data measured at national regulatory monitoring sites in South Korea and the insight of the plausible longterm exposure metric for cohort studies.

북서태평양 장기 고해상도 지역해양 재분석 자료 생산 및 해양기후변화 진단 (Production of High-Resolution Long-Term Regional Ocean Reanalysis Data and Diagnosis of Ocean Climate Change in the Northwest Pacific)

  • 김영호
    • 한국지구과학회지
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    • 제45권3호
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    • pp.192-202
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    • 2024
  • 해양재분석 자료는 관측 자료를 수치 모델에 동화함으로, 관측 자료의 시공간적인 제약을 극복하고 해양 변수 간의 물리적 상호작용을 고려한 격자화된 고해상도 정보를 제공함으로써 해양순환 및 기후 연구에 광범위하게 사용되고 있다. 이 연구에서는 기존에 생산된 12년간(2011년부터 2022년까지)의 북서태평양 지역해양 재분석 자료를 확장하여 30년간(1993년부터 2022년까지)의 1/24° 수평해상도를 갖는 장기 재분석 자료(K-ORA22E)를 생산하고, 이를 분석하여 한반도 주변해역에서의 장기 해양기후변화를 진단하였다. K-ORA22E 데이터를 통해 한반도 주변 해역의 수온 상승 경향을 분석한 결과, 쿠로시오 확장역에서 쿠로시오의 경로가 지난 30년 동안 1년에 약 6 km 씩 북상하였으며, 쿠로시오 경로의 북쪽에서 수온 상승이 두드러졌다. 한반도 주변 해역 중에서는 동해에서 수온 상승이 가장 뚜렷했다. 특히, 동해에서는 표층보다는 중층에서 수온 상승이 두드러졌으며, 동한난류의 수온 상승률은 전 지구 평균보다 2-3배 높았다. 황해저층냉수가 출현하는 황해 중앙부에서는 장기적으로 수온이 상승하였으나, 한반도 서해안과 남해안에서는 수온이 오히려 감소하는 경향이 나타났다. 이러한 수온의 장기변화의 공간적인 차이는 쿠로시오 해류의 북상에 따른 열수송의 경로와 밀접한 관련이 있을 것으로 보인다. 이 연구에서 구축된 K-ORA22E와 같은 고해상도 지역 해양 재분석 자료는 한반도 주변 해역의 장기 변동성을 이해하고 기후 변화의 영향을 분석하는 데 중요한 기초 자료로 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

조류 조화상수의 월변동성 완화 방법 고찰 (Investigating the Adjustment Methods of Monthly Variability in Tidal Current Harmonic Constants)

  • 변도성
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • 제33권3호
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    • pp.309-319
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    • 2011
  • This is a preliminary study of the feasibility of obtaining reliable tidal current harmonic constants, using one month of current observations, to verify the accuracy of a tidal model. An inference method is commonly used to separate out the tidal harmonic constituents when the available data spans less than a synodic period. In contrast to tidal constituents, studies of the separation of tidal-current harmonics are rare, basically due to a dearth of the long-term observation data needed for such experiments. We conducted concurrent and monthly harmonic analyses for tidal current velocities and heights, using 2 years (2006 and 2007) of current and sea-level records obtained from the Tidal Current Signal Station located in the narrow waterway in front of Incheon Lock, Korea. Firstly, the l-year harmonic analyses showed that, with the exception of $M_2$ and $S_2$ semidiurnal constituents, the major constituents were different for the tidal currents and heights. $K_1$, for instance, was found to be the 4th major tidal constituent but not an important tidal current constituent. Secondly, we examined monthly variation in the amplitudes and phase-lags of the $S_2$ and $K_1$ current-velocity and tide constituents over a 23-month period. The resultant patterns of variation in the amplitudes and phase-lags of the $S_2$ tidal currents and tides were similar, exhibiting a sine curve form with a 6-month period. Similarly, variation in the $K_1$ tidal constant and tidal current-velocity phase lags showed a sine curve pattern with a 6-month period. However, that of the $K_1$ tidal current-velocity amplitude showed a somewhat irregular sine curve pattern. Lastly, we investigated and tested the inference methods available for separating the $K_2$ and $S_2$ current-velocity constituents via monthly harmonic analysis. We compared the effects of reduction in monthly variability in tidal harmonic constants of the $S_2$ current-velocity constituent using three different inference methods and that of Schureman (1976). Specifically, to separate out the two constituents ($S_2$ and $K_2$), we used three different inference parameter (i.e. amplitude ratio and phase-lag diggerence) values derived from the 1-year harmonic analyses of current-velocities and tidal heights at (near) the short-term observation station and from tidal potential (TP), together with Schureman's (1976) inference (SI). Results from these four different methods reveal that TP and SI are satisfactorily applicable where results of long-term harmonic analysis are not available. We also discussed how to further reduce the monthly variability in $S_2$ tidal current-velocity constants.

한반도 상공의 오존층 변화 1985~2009 (The Variations of Stratospheric Ozone over the Korean Peninsula 1985~2009)

  • 박상서;김준;조나영;이윤곤;조희구
    • 대기
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    • 제21권4호
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    • pp.349-359
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    • 2011
  • The climatology in stratospheric ozone over the Korean Peninsula, presented in previous studies (e.g., Cho et al., 2003; Kim et al., 2005), is updated by using daily and monthly data from satellite and ground-based data through December 2009. In addition, long-term satellite data [Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS), Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), 1979~2009] have been also analyzed in order to deduce the spatial distributions and temporal variations of the global total ozone. The global average of total ozone (1979~2009) is 298 DU which shows a minimum of about 244 DU in equatorial latitudes and increases poleward in both hemispheres to a maximum of about 391 DU in Okhotsk region. The recent period, from 2006 to 2009, shows reduction in total ozone by 6% relative to the values for the pre-1980s (1979~1982). The long-term trends were estimated by using a multiple linear regression model (e.g., WMO, 1999; Cho et al., 2003) including explanatory variables for the seasonal variation, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and solar cycle over three different time intervals: a whole interval from 1979 to 2009, the former interval from 1979 to 1992, and the later interval from 1993 to 2009 with a turnaround point of deep minimum in 1993 is related to the effect of Mt. Pinatubo eruption. The global trend shows -0.93% $decade^{-1}$ for the whole interval, whereas the former and the later interval trends amount to -2.59% $decade^{-1}$ and +0.95% $decade^{-1}$, respectively. Therefore, the long-term total ozone variations indicate that there are positive trends showing a recovery sign of the ozone layer in both North/South hemispheres since around 1993. Annual mean total ozone (1985~2009) is distributed from 298 DU for Jeju ($33.52^{\circ}N$) to 352 DU for Unggi ($42.32^{\circ}N$) in almost zonally symmetric pattern over the Korean Peninsula, with the latitudinal gradient of 6 DU $degree^{-1}$. It is apparent that seasonal variability of total ozone increases from Jeju toward Unggi. The annual mean total ozone for Seoul shows 323 DU, with the maximum of 359 DU in March and the minimum of 291 DU in October. It is found that the day to day variability in total ozone exhibits annual mean of 5.7% in increase and -5.2% in decrease. The variability as large as 38.4% in increase and 30.3% in decrease has been observed, respectively. The long-term trend analysis (e.g., WMO, 1999) of monthly total ozone data (1985~2009) merged by satellite and ground-based measurements over the Korean Peninsula shows increase of 1.27% $decade^{-1}$ to 0.80% $decade^{-1}$ from Jeju to Unggi, respectively, showing systematic decrease of the trend magnitude with latitude. This study also presents a new analysis of ozone density and trends in the vertical distribution of ozone for Seoul with data up to the end of 2009. The mean vertical distributions of ozone show that the maximum value of the ozone density is 16.5 DU $km^{-1}$ in the middle stratospheric layer between 24 km and 28 km. About 90.0% and 71.5% of total ozone are found in the troposphere and in the stratosphere between 15 and 33 km, respectively. The trend analysis reconfirms the previous results of significant positive ozone trend, of up to 5% $decade^{-1}$, in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere (0~24 km), with negative trend, of up to -5% $decade^{-1}$, in the stratosphere (24~38 km). In addition, the Umkehr data show a positive trend of about 3% $decade^{-1}$ in the upper stratosphere (38~48 km).

에스트로젠 호르몬 대치요법이 혈압, 심박동변이, 갱년기증상에 미치는 효과 (The Effects of Estrogen Replacement Therapy on Blood Pressure, Heart Rate Variability, and Climacteric Symptoms in Postmenopausal Women)

  • 이혜경
    • 여성건강간호학회지
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    • 제8권2호
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    • pp.151-164
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    • 2002
  • PURPOSE: Estrogen replacement therapy is indicated for the relief of hot flushes and urogenital atrophy, the prevention of osteoporosis and the reduction in risk of cardiovascular disease. The present study assessed by blood pressure, heart rate variability, and climacteric symptoms in menopausal women before treatment and at 1 month during estrogen replacement therapy. METHODS: The study sample consisted of 16 healthy menopausal women (range 49 to 59 years, mean : 53.4 years) attending menopausal clinics for the complaint of climateric symptoms at S. hospital in Chunchoen. They were all non-smokers and no patient had symptoms or evidence of cardiovascular disease. They took estrogen replacement therapy (conjugated estrogen 0.625 mg with or without medroxy progesteron 2.5mg) for 1 month. Blood pressure, heart rate variability(heart period and vagal tone) through ECG, and climacteric symptom were measured in all subjects before treatment and at 1 month during treatment. Climacteric symptom questionnaire which was developed by Neugarten et al.(1963) was modified with 20 items of question(Cronbach's alpha = 88 -.89). The data was collected from Sept. 1. 2000 to July. 30. 2001. RESULTS: There was no significant difference in mean systolic and diastolic pressure between the baseline and at 1 month during treatment. The mean heart period and vagal tone were slightly increased, but difference of mean heart period and vagal tone were not statistically significant between the baseline and at 1 month during treatment. The score of climacteric symptoms decreased significantly from the baseline after treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Even though, this study did not show that estrogen replacement therapy led decrease of blood pressure and increase heart rate variability, climacteric symptoms reduced much in all subjects after taking drugs. These results suggest that there is need to repeat study with long term period.

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The Applicability of CERES-Rice Simulation Model in Korea

  • Shim, Kyo-Moon;Cui, Ri-Xian;Lee, Jeong-Taek;Lee, Yang-Soo;Lee, Byun-Woo
    • 한국농림기상학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국농림기상학회 2003년도 춘계 학술발표논문집
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    • pp.39-41
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    • 2003
  • The crop growth simulation model could be adopted to evaluate the impact not only of the long term climate change such as atmosphere $CO_2$ concentration rising and global warming but also of the predicted short term weather variability on the national crop production. There are several growth simulation models for predicting rice crop performance such as ORYZA1, CERES-Rice, Rice Clock Model, and SIMRIW.(omitted)

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LONG-TERM X-RAY VARIABILITIES OF THE SEYFERT GALAXY MCG-2-58-22 : SECULAR FLUX DECREASE AND FLARES

  • CHOI CHUL-SUNG;DOTANI TADAYASU;CHANG HEON- YOUNG;YI INSU
    • 천문학회지
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    • 제35권1호
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    • pp.1-7
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    • 2002
  • We have studied the long-term X-ray light curve (2-10 keV) of the luminous Seyfert 1 galaxy MCG-2-58-22 by compiling data, from various X-ray satellites, which together cover more than 20 years. We have found two distinct types of time variations in the light curve. One is a gradual and secular decrease of the X-ray flux, and the other is the episodic increase of X-ray flux (or flare) by a factor of 2-4 compared with the level expected from the secular variation. We detected 3 such flares in total; a representative duration for the flares is $\~$2 years, with intervening quiescent intervals lasting $\~$6-8 years. We discuss a few possible origins for these variabilities. Though a standard disk instability theory may explain the displayed time variability in the X-ray light curve, the subsequent accretions of stellar debris, from a tidal disruption event caused by a supermassive black hole in MCG-2-58-22, cannot be ruled out as an alternative explanation.

낙동강유역 난분해성 용존 유기탄소 배출 현황 분석 (Current Status of Refractory Dissolved Organic Carbon in the Nakdong River Basin)

  • 이정훈;김정선;이재관;강임석;김상단
    • 한국물환경학회지
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    • 제28권4호
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    • pp.538-550
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    • 2012
  • This study suggests a general methodology which is designed for assessing RDOC behavior at the catchment scale by coupling properly a series of steam flow and water quality simulation models and actual monitoring data set. The modified TANK model in which a river routing function is incorporated to the conventional one is applied to simulate the long-term daily stream flow data, and the simulated stream flow data is combined with the 7-parameter log-linear model coupled to the minimum variance unbiased estimator to simulate the long-term daily water quality (BOD, COD and TOC) loads. Finally, the regression analysis between the usually monitored water quality data (BOD, COD and TOC) and RDOC is combined with the simulated water quality data to manifest the spatio-temporal variability of RDOC flux behavior at the Korean TMDL catchment scale.

THE CASPIAN SEA LEVEL, DYNAMICS, WIND, WAVES AND UPLIFT OF THE EARTH'S CRUST DERIVED FROM SATELLITE ALTIMETRY

  • Lebedev, S.A.;Kostianoy, A.G.
    • 대한원격탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한원격탐사학회 2006년도 Proceedings of ISRS 2006 PORSEC Volume II
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    • pp.973-976
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    • 2006
  • The oscillations of the Caspian Sea level represent a result of mutually related hydrometeorological processes. The change in the tendency of the mean sea level variations that occurred in the middle 1970s, when the long-term level fall was replaced by its rapid and significant rise, represents an important indicator of the changes in the natural regime of the Caspian Sea. Therefore, sea level monitoring and long-term forecast of the sea level changes represent an extremely important task. The aim of this presentation is to show the experience of application of satellite altimetry methods to the investigation of seasonal and interannual variability of the sea level, wind speed and wave height, water dynamics, as well as of uplift of the Earth’s crust in different parts of the Caspian Sea and Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay. Special attention is given to estimates of the Volga River runoff derived from satellite altimetry data. The work is based on the 1992-2005 TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) and Jason-1 (J-1) data sets.

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Sea-Level Trend at the Korean Coast

  • Cho, Kwangwoo
    • 한국환경과학회지
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    • 제11권11호
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    • pp.1141-1147
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    • 2002
  • Based on the tide gauge data from the Permanent Service for Meau Sea Level (PSMSL) collected at 23 locations in the Korean coast, the long-term sea-level trend was computed using a simple linear regression fit over the recorded length of the monthly mean sea-level data. The computed sea-level trend was also corrected for the vertical land movement due to post glacial rebound(PGR) using the ICE-4G(VM2) model output. It was found that the PGR-corrected sea-level trend near Korea was 2.310 $\pm$ 2.220 mm/yr, which is higher than the global average at 1.0∼2.0mm/yr, as assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC). The regional distribution of the long-term sea-level trend near Korea revealed that the South Sea had the largest sea-level rise followed by the West Sea and East Sea, respectively, supporting the results of the previous study by Seo et al. However, due to the relatively short record period and large spatial variability, the sea-level trend from the tide gauge data for the Korean coast could be biased with a steric sea-level rise by the global warming during the 20th century.