• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• 제31권4호
• /
• pp.377-391
• /
• 2024

Accurate household projections are essential for sectors such as housing supply and tax policy planning, given the rapid social changes like declining birthrates, an aging population, and a rise in single-person households that impact household size and type. Korea introduced its first register-based census in 2015, transitioning from five-year general survey-based approach to an annual administrative data-based census. This change in census allows for more frequent and effective capturing the rapid demographic shifts and trends. However, this change in census has caused challenges in future projection by the existing household projection model due to the rapid dynamics. This paper proposes a new household projection method, the N-point Modified Exponential Model (MEM), that accurately reflects register-based census data and mitigates the impact of rapid demographic changes, in three types: the Weighted N-point MEM, the Regression-based N-point MEM, and the Rolling Weighted N+point MEM. Using register-based census data from 2016 to 2020 to forecast household headship rates by age, household size, and household type to 2051, the N-point modified exponential model outperformed the existing model in both long- and short-term forecast accuracy, suggesting its suitability as a future household projection model for Korea.

• 한국인구학
• /
• 제9권1호
• /
• pp.41-53
• /
• 1986

The purpose of this paper is two-fold. One is to investigate the determinants of the demand supply of labor, and another is to project long-term demand and supply of labor. The paper consists of three parts. In the first part, theoretical models and important hypotheses are discussed: for the case of a labor supply model, issues regarding discouraged worker model, permanent wage hypothesis, and relative wage hypothesis are examined and for the case of a demand model, issues regarding estimating an employment demand equation within the framework of an inverted short-run produc- tion function are inspected. Particularly, a theoretical justification for introducing a demographic cohort variable in a labor supply equation is also investigated. In the second part, empirical results of the estimated supply and demand equations are analyzed. Supply equations are specified differently between primary and secondary labor force. That is, for the case of primary labor force groups including males aged 25 and over, attempts are made to explain the variations in participation behavior within the framework of a neo-classical economics oriented permanent wage hypothesis. On the other hand, for the case of females and young male labor force, variations in participation rates are explained in terms of a relative wage hypothesis. In other words, the participation behavior of primary labor force is related to short-rum business fluctuations, while that of secondary labor force is associated with intermediate swings of business cycles and demographic changes in the age structure of population. Some major findings arc summarized as follows. (1) For the case of males aged 14~19 and 2O~24 groups and females aged 14∼19, the effect of schhool enrollment rate is dominant and thus it plays a key role in explaining the recent declining trend of participation rates of these groups. (2) Except for females aged 20∼24, a demographic cohort variable, which captures the impact of changes in the age structure on participation behavior, turns out to show positive and significant coefficients for secondary labor force groups. (3) A cyclical variable produce significant coefficients for prime-age males and females reflecting that as compared to other groups the labor supply behavior of these groups is more closely related to short-run cyclical variations (4) The wage variable, which represents a labor-leisure trade-off turns out to yield significant coefficients only for older age groups (6O and over) for both males and females. This result reveals that unlike the experiences of other higer-income nations, the participation decision of the labor force of our nation is not highly sensitive with respect to wage changes. (5)The estimated result of the employment demand equation displays that given that the level of GNP remains constant the ability of the economy to absord labor force has been declining;that is, the elasticity of GNP with respect to labor absorption decreasre over time. In the third part, the results of long-term projections (for the period of 1986 and 1995) for age-sex specific participation rates are discussed. The participation rate of total males is anticipated to increase slightly, which is contrary to the recent trend of declining participation rates of this group. For the groups aged 25 and below, the participation rates are forecast to decline although the magnitude of decrease is likely to shrink. On the other hand, the participation rate of prime- age males (25 to 59 years old) is predicted to increase slightly during 1985 and 1990. For the case of females, except for 20∼24 and 25∼34 age groups, the participation rates are projected to decrease: the participation rates of 25∼34 age group is likely to remain at its current level, while the participation rate of 20∼24 age group is expected to increase considerably in the future (specifi- cally, from 55% in 1985 to 61% in 1990 and to 69% in 1995). In conclusion, while the number of an excess supply of labor will increase in absolute magnitude, its size as a ratio of total labor force is not likely to increase. However, the age composition of labor force is predicted to change; that is, the proportion of prime-age male and female labor force is projected to increase.

• 대한한의학회지
• /
• 제35권1호
• /
• pp.145-156
• /
• 2014

Objectives: Korean medicine hospitals, since they first emerged in the early 1970s, have rapidly become a new member of the hospital population. As it was a new organizational frame for traditional medicine, we tried to analyze the changes of Korean medicine hospitals coping with institutional environment and their relative positioning in the whole health care sector. Methods: On the basis of Scott and his colleagues' identification of the three components of institutional environments, changes in organizational logics, actors, and governance of Korean medicine hospitals during the period from 1971 to 2010 were analyzed. Results: First, Similar to previous literature on institutional eras of Korean health sector, three distinct periods were characterized: the foundation of Korean medicine hospitals to consolidate the legal status(1971~1986), a rapid increase of entrepreneurial hospitals through cultural-cognitive legitimacy(1987~2001), and the reinforcement of specialization and competition(2002~present). Conclusions: Results suggested that: (1) changes in institutional environments hada heavy impact on structural and behavioral changes among Korean medicine hospitals, but the pace was slower than that of western medicine hospitals. (2) In structure, Korean medicine hospitals have positioned themselves as unofficial long-term care hospitals, focusing on chronic diseases(e.g. cerebrovascular disease). Our study demonstrated that organizational theories can provide useful framework for the analysis of Korean medicine and related policies. Indeed, one of the most important implications of this study is that understanding changes in institutional environments is important to understand the process of how members of the health care sector live, grow, change, decline and survive.

• 가정과삶의질연구
• /
• 제24권6호
• /
• pp.177-193
• /
• 2006

This study analyzes marriage and fertility rates in Korea and makes recommendations for family policy. Based on the 'The Report of Marriage & Divorce Statistics in 2005' and data from the Korea Statistical Information System (KOSIS) of the National Statistics Organization, the trends, reasons for marriage rates changes, and future expectations were critically reviewed. In addition, the relationship between marriage and fertility rates was analyzed. The principle characteristics of marriage rates are as follows: 1) the M-shape of the longitudinal crude marriage rates; 2) the increased age of individuals entering their the first marriage; 3) the increase in remarriage rates; 4) the changes in the patterns of remarriage; 5) the increased in the age at which individuals remarry and; 6) the increase in marriage to non-Koreans. The marriage and fertility rates changes are a permanent normative shift because of 1) later marriage because of women's increased education and labor force participation 2) rational choices about birth control 3) reduced population because of the aging of baby boomers 4) structural changes in the marriage market and 5) egalitarian changes in women's attitudes toward marriage and family. The recommendations for future family policy were as follows: 1) the need for a realistic, long-term family policy because the current marriage patterns will continue; 2) the need to develop new statistics such as fertility rates that are based on marriage cohort or birth cohort because family behavior is a mixture of personal, social and political responses; 3) the need for impact analysis of current family policy about increasing fertility rates; 4) the need for a new family perspective that encompasses diverse marriage and family patterns; 5) the need to focus on men's role in families because of women's changing roles and family interaction patterns and; 6) the need for preventive family policies such as family life education.

• 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
• /
• 제18권5호
• /
• pp.167-174
• /
• 2018

일본정부는 급격하게 고령화 되어가는 사회에 대응하기 위해 지속적으로 노인복지를 확대해왔다. 그리고 일본의 노인 복지제도의 바탕을 이루고 있던 조치제도는 2000년에 들어서면서 개호보험이라는 사회보험적 형태의 노인복지 시스템으로 변화, 정착되었고 일본의 노인복지 시스템은 획기적인 변화를 맞게 되었다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 개호보험이 가지는 주요 특징 중에 특별히 주목하는 점은 다음과 같다. 첫째, 개호보험은 사회보험시스템으로서 의무적인 가입을 해야 하며 상당한 양의 보험금과 자기부담금을 부담해야한다. 둘째, 복지제도의 이용자는 소비자로 인식되며, 그들은 다양한 소비자로서의 초이스를 가질 수 있도록 하고, 이를 위해 복지서비스 제공자는 자유시장에서의 경쟁의 원리를 바탕으로 활동하게 된다. 그리고 이전의 조치제도 하의 복지서비스 제공자들이 정부 주도의 시설과 단체들로서 그에 대한 규제가 엄격하였다면, 개호 보험에서의 서비스 제공자들은 훨씬 유화되고 간단해진 관리와 규제를 받게 되었다. 이러한 개호보험의 특징은 재일조선, 한국인 조직들이 재일 고령자라는 소비자에게 일본 복지서비스에서는 찾기 힘든 한민족의 민족적 콘텐츠를 노인 복지 영역에 도입하는 활동을 기획하고 실천하는데 있어 그 동력을 제공하였다. 즉, 한민족 콘텐츠를 복지 서비스의 판매에 유리한 조건(selling point)로서, 동시에 예상되는 복지이용에서의 민족적 불이익에 대한 대안으로 삼음으로써 일본의 노인복지서비스 영역을 다양화하는 결과를 가져왔다.

• Journal of Periodontal and Implant Science
• /
• 제48권1호
• /
• pp.3-11
• /
• 2018

Purpose: This study utilized a strong quasi-experimental design to test the hypothesis that the implementation of a policy to expand dental care services resulted in an increase in the usage of dental outpatient services. Methods: A total of 45,650,000 subjects with diagnoses of gingivitis or advanced periodontitis who received dental scaling were selected and examined, utilizing National Health Insurance claims data from July 2010 through November 2015. We performed a segmented regression analysis of the interrupted time-series to analyze the time-series trend in dental costs before and after the policy implementation, and assessed immediate changes in dental costs. Results: After the policy change was implemented, a statistically significant 18% increase occurred in the observed total dental cost per patient, after adjustment for age, sex, and residence area. In addition, the dental costs of outpatient gingivitis treatment increased immediately by almost 47%, compared with a 15% increase in treatment costs for advanced periodontitis outpatients. This policy effect appears to be sustainable. Conclusions: The introduction of the new policy positively impacted the immediate and long-term outpatient utilization of dental scaling treatment in South Korea. While the policy was intended to entice patients to prevent periodontal disease, thus benefiting the insurance system, our results showed that the policy also increased treatment accessibility for potential periodontal disease patients and may improve long-term periodontal health in the South Korean population.

• Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
• /
• 제67권4호
• /
• pp.458-466
• /
• 2024

Objective : Several clinical studies have explored the feasibility and efficacy of radiosurgical treatment for mesial temporal lobe epilepsy, but the long-term safety of this treatment has not been fully characterized. This study aims to report and describe radiation-induced cavernous malformation as a delayed complication of radiosurgery in epilepsy patients. Methods : The series includes 20 patients with mesial temporal lobe epilepsy who underwent Gamma Knife radiosurgery (GKRS). The majority received a prescribed isodose of 24 Gy as an adjuvant treatment after anterior temporal lobectomy. Results : In this series, we identified radiation-induced cavernous malformation in three patients, resulting in a cumulative incidence of 18.4% (95% confidence interval, 6.3% to 47.0%) at an 8-year follow-up. These late sequelae of vascular malformation occurred between 6.9 and 7.6 years after GKRS, manifesting later than other delayed radiation-induced changes, such as radiation necrosis. Neurological symptoms attributed to intracranial hypertension were present in those three cases involving cavernous malformation. Of these, two cases, which initially exhibited an insufficient response to radiosurgery, ultimately demonstrated seizure remission following the successful microsurgical resection of the cavernous malformation. Conclusion : All things considered, the development of radiation-induced cavernous malformation is not uncommon in this population and should be acknowledged as a potential long-term complication. Microsurgical resection of cavernous malformation can be preferentially considered in cases where the initial seizure outcome after GKRS is unsatisfactory.

• 상하수도학회지
• /
• 제37권6호
• /
• pp.363-373
• /
• 2023

Numerous studies have established a correlation between sociodemographic characteristics and water usage, identifying population as a primary independent variable in mid- to long-term demand forecasting. Recent dramatic sociodemographic changes, including urban concentration-rural depopulation, low birth rates-aging population, and the rise in single-person households, are expected to impact water demand and supply patterns. This underscores the necessity for operational and managerial changes in existing water supply systems. While sociodemographic characteristics are regularly surveyed, the conducted surveys use aggregate units that do not align with the actual system. Consequently, many water demand forecasts have been conducted at the administrative district level without adequately considering the water supply system. This study presents an upward water demand forecasting model that accurately reflects real water facilities and consumers. The model comprises three key steps. Firstly, Statistics Korea's SGIS (Statistical Geological Information System) data was reorganized at the DMA level. Secondly, DMAs were classified using the SOM (Self-Organizing Map) algorithm to consider differences in water facilities and consumer characteristics. Lastly, water demand forecasting employed the PCR (Principal Component Regression) method to address multicollinearity and overfitting issues. The performance evaluation of this model was conducted for DMAs classified as rural areas due to the insufficient number of DMAs. The estimation results indicate that the correlation coefficients exceeded 0.9, and the MAPE remained within approximately 10% for the test dataset. This method is expected to be useful for reorganization plans, such as the expansion and contraction of existing facilities.

• Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
• /
• 제32권2호
• /
• pp.219-235
• /
• 2016

Forest tree diversity inventory and its periodical monitoring are important to understand changes in tree population structure and to provide information useful for biodiversity conservation and reserve management. In a long-term forest dynamics program in Indian tropical dry evergreen forest, this communication deals with tree diversity changes at decadal interval. The initial inventory of tree diversity was carried out in 2003, in four tropical dry evergreen forest sites - (much disturbed sites Shanmuganathapuram - SP and Araiyapatti - AP and moderately disturbed sites - Karisakkadu - KR and Maramadakki - MM) on the Coromandel Coast of peninsular India, by establishing four 1ha permanent plots, one in each site. In 2013, the four plots were re-inventoried for tree diversity (${\geq}10cm\;gbh$) changes which yielded 56 species from 46 genera and 26 families. The studied forest sites are threatened by disturbance due to multiple reasons; cutting of trees inside of the forest, grazing by goats, construction of temple approach road, and some aspects cultural attachment of local people like constructing new, additional strctures of temple by denuding a portion of forest etc.. Tree species richness over a decade increased by four species in site SP, two species in site AP, and one species in site KR, but decreased by one species in site MM. Tree density decreased drastically by 480 (28.92%) and 102 (12.63%) stems $ha^{-1}$ respectively in sites SP and AP, but moderately increased by 82 (12.09%) stems $ha^{-1}$ in site KR and 26 (3.46%) stems $ha^{-1}$ in site MM. Tree basal area declined in site KR from $21.6m^2$ to $20.26m^2ha^{-1}$ and in site SP from 21.1 to $20.38m^2ha^{-1}$, but increased from $19.1m^2$ to $19.43m^2$ and from 15.5 to $18.63m^2ha^{-1}$ in sites AP and MM respectively. Three tree species (Allophylus serratus, Maytenus emarginata and Ehretia pubescens) were lost out of the 57 species recorded in 2003, and two species (Jatropha gossypiifolia and Streblus asper) were new additions in ten years. The long-term forest monitoring data will be valuable to understand forest dynamics and for conservation and management of this and similar tropical forests.

• Nutrition Research and Practice
• /
• 제8권3호
• /
• pp.319-326
• /
• 2014

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: The immigrant population has grown considerably in South Korea since the early 1990s due to international marriages. Dietary changes in immigrants are an important issue, because they are related to health and disease patterns. This study was conducted to compare changes in dietary intake between baseline and follow-up periods. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Two hundreds thirty three Vietnamese female married immigrants. Baseline data were collected during 2006-2009, and the follow-up data were collected during 2008 and 2010. Food consumption was assessed using a 1-day 24-hour recall. RESULTS: The amount of the total food consumed (P < 0.001) including that of cereals (P = 0.004), vegetables (P = 0.003), and fruits (P = 0.002) decreased at follow-up compared to that at baseline, whereas consumption of milk and dairy products increased (P = 0.004). Accordingly, the overall energy and nutrient intake decreased at follow-up, including carbohydrates (P = 0.012), protein (P = 0.021), fiber (P = 0.008), iron (P = 0.009), zinc (P = 0.006), and folate (P = 0.002). Among various anthropometric and biochemical variables, mean skeletal muscle mass decreased (P = 0.012), plasma high density lipoprotein-cholesterol increased, (P = 0.020) and high sensitivity C-reactive protein decreased at follow-up (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: A long-term follow-up study is needed to investigate the association between changes in food and nutrient intake and anthropometric and biochemical variables in these Vietnamese female marriage immigrants.