• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.325-337
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• 2017

In this paper, we proposed a new long-term lifetime distribution with four parameters inserted in a risk competitive scenario with decreasing, increasing and unimodal hazard rate functions, namely the Weibull-Poisson long-term distribution. This new distribution arises from a scenario of competitive latent risk, in which the lifetime associated to the particular risk is not observable, and where only the minimum lifetime value among all risks is noticed in a long-term context. However, it can also be used in any other situation as long as it fits the data well. The Weibull-Poisson long-term distribution is presented as a particular case for the new exponential-Poisson long-term distribution and Weibull long-term distribution. The properties of the proposed distribution were discussed, including its probability density, survival and hazard functions and explicit algebraic formulas for its order statistics. Assuming censored data, we considered the maximum likelihood approach for parameter estimation. For different parameter settings, sample sizes, and censoring percentages various simulation studies were performed to study the mean square error of the maximum likelihood estimative, and compare the performance of the model proposed with the particular cases. The selection criteria Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion, and likelihood ratio test were used for the model selection. The relevance of the approach was illustrated on two real datasets of where the new model was compared with its particular cases observing its potential and competitiveness.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제30권8호
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• pp.976-984
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• 2006

Time-temperature superposition has been studied to determine the long-term fatigue life over millions of cycles for glassy polymers. π le superposition is supposed to make an accelerated lifetime testing (ALT) technique possible. Dog-bone shaped specimens made of carbon filled Polycarbonate (PC) were tested under fatigue, based on the stress-lifetime approach (S-N curve). Fatigue-induced localized yield-like deformation is considered as the defect leading to fatigue and its evolution behavior is characterized by a modified energy activation model in which temperature is considered as fatigue acceleration factor. This model allows the reduced time concept to account for effects of different temperature in short-term fatigue data to determine long-term fatigue life through the use of time-temperature superposition that is applicable under a low frequency and isothermal conditions. The experimental results validated that the proposed technique could be a possible method for accelerated lifetime testing (ALT) of time-dependent polymeric materials.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제40권4호
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• pp.269-276
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• 2008

Operational license of WWER-440/213 units at Paks NPP, Hungary is limited to the design lifetime of 30 years. Prolongation by additional 20 years of the operational lifetime is feasible. Moreover, enhancement of the reactor thermal power by 8% will increase both the net power output and the competitiveness of the plant. Paks NPP is a pioneer considering the power up-rate and preparation of long-term operation of WWER-440/213 design. Systematic preparatory work for long-term operation of Paks NPP has been started in 2000. A regulatory framework and a comprehensive engineering practice have been developed. According to the authors view, creation of a gapless engineering system via consequent application of best practices, and feed-back of experiences together with proper consideration of WWER-440/V213 features are the decisive elements of ensuring the safety of long-term operation. That systematic engineering approach is in the focus of recent paper. Key elements of justification and measures for ensuring the safety of long-term operation of Paks NPP WWER-440/213 units are identified and discussed. These are the assessment of plant condition and review of adequacy of ageing management programmes, also the review, validation and reconstitution of time limited ageing analyses as core tasks of licence renewal.

• Tribology and Lubricants
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• 제34권5호
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• pp.197-207
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• 2018

Thermal deterioration of fuel due to long-term storage influences engine performance and causes malfunctions. Fuel stability is usually evaluated via heat resistance and thermal stability during a brief heat shock at high temperature; storage stability in this scenario means that there is very little change in the quality of the fuel during long-term storage. In addition, rubber-based products such as oil seals, O-rings, and rubber hoses can influence the quality of the fuel. When these rubber products are in contact with fuel, they can swell, mechanically weaken, and occasionally crack, thus leaking low molar weight rubber and additives including plasticizer and antioxidant into the fuel to degrade its properties and shorten its useful lifetime. This study determines the thermal stabilities of three kinds of synthetic fuels by evaluating their low temperature kinematic viscosities, chemical composition changes via GC analyses, gross heat of combustion, and color changes. We evaluate the compression set of O-rings by immersing one NBR and two FKM rubber O-rings in the three synthetic fuel samples in airtight containers at variable storage temperatures for six months; from this, we estimate the lifetimes of the O-rings using the Power law model. There were very little changes in the chemical compositions and gross heat of combustion after six months of the experiment. The lifetimes are thus dependent on the materials of the rubber products, and in particular, the FKM O-ring was calculated to have a theoretical lifetime of 200 to 5,700 years. These results indicate that the synthetic fuels maintain their physical properties even after long-term storage at high temperatures, and the FKM O-ring is suitable for long-term sealing of these fuels.

• 대기
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• 제19권3호
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• pp.243-253
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• 2009

In other to interpret the long-term variations of sunshine duration, cloud lifetime, and precipitation intensity observed in and around Seoul and Busan for the period from 1986 to 2005, aerosol indirect effect was employed and applied. For the identification of long-term trend of aerosol concentration, observed visibility and AOT of AERONET sunphotometer data were also used over the same regions. The result showed that the time series of visibility was decreased and those of AOT increased, especially trends were remarkable in 2000s. In both regions, occurrence frequencies of observed cloudiness (cloud amount ${\leq}6/10$) and strong precipitation (rain rate > $0.5mmhour^{-1}$) have been steadily increased while those of cloudiness (cloud amount > 7/10) and weak precipitation (rain rate ${\leq}0.2mmhour^{-1}$) decreased. These results are corresponding to the trend of both visibility and AERONET data, implying the aerosol indirect effect that makes size of cloud droplet reduce, cloud life-time longer and precipitation efficiency decreased. Our findings demonstrate that, although these phenomena are not highly significant, weather and climate system over Korean urban area have been changed toward longer lifetime of small cloudiness and increasing precipitation intensity as a result of increased aerosol indirect effect.

• 폴리머
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• 제26권4호
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• pp.452-461
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• 2002

본 연구에서는 폴리아미드 6 (PA 6)을 70~$160^{\circ}C$에서 장시간 사용하였을 때 산화방지제의 사용유무 및 농도에 따른 열 안정성을 조사하였다. 70~$160^{\circ}C$의 온도범위내의 열 산화반응 시 모든 시료는 100시간 내에 황변 현상이 일어났다. 기계적 물성, 황변 지수, 점도측정으로 가장 적정한 산화방지제의 농도를 조사하였다. 일, 이차 산화방지제의 조성변화에 의한 산화방지효과는 미미하였다. 황변 현상의 분석은 NMR, IR, 그리고 element analysis (EA)를 사용하였다. $^{13}C$ NMR에 의해 서로 다른 카르보닐기의 존재를 확인하였으며, 산소의 소모량 측정은 EA를 사용하였다. Arrhenius식을 이용하여 산화방지제를 첨가한 시료와 그렇지 않은 시료의 lifetime을 예측하였다.

• Tribology and Lubricants
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• 제35권4호
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• pp.222-228
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• 2019

As rubber products such as O-rings, which are also known as packings or toric joints, come in regular, long term contact with liquid fuel, they can eventually swell, become mechanically weakened, and occasionally crack; this diminishes both their usefulness and intrinsic lifetime and could cause leaks during the steady-state flow condition of the fuel. In this study, we evaluate the lifetime of such products through compression set tests of FKM, a family of fluorocarbon elastomer materials defined by the ASTM international standard D141; these materials have great compression, sunlight, and ozone resistance as well as a low gas absorption rate. In this process, O-rings are immersed in the liquid fuel of airtight containers that can be expressed as a compression set, and the liquid fuel leakage in a flow rig tester at variable temperatures over 12 months is investigated. Using the Power Law model, our study determined a theoretical O-ring lifetime of 2,647 years, i.e. a semi-permanent lifespan, by confirming the absence of liquid fuel leakage around the O-ring assembled fittings. These results indicate that the FKM O-rings are significantly compatible for fuel tests to evaluate long-term sealing conditions.

• 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.37-45
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• 2009

Recently mechanical watt-hour meters are being replaced by electronic watt-hour meters. The replacement period of mechanical watt-hour meters is 7 years. This period is based on long term historical data. The replacement period of electronic watt-meters is also 7 years. This period is determined using the replacement period of mechanical watt-hour meters. However lifetime of mechanical watt-hour meters is different from the lifetime of electronic meters. In order to determine desirable replacement period of electronic watt-hour meters, accelerated life tests of major components in electronic watt-hour meters were performed. The test results showed that LCD was the component which had the shortest lifetime. In this paper, lifetime of electronic watt-hour meters manufactured by 3 company was estimated and life test standard for LCD was developed.

• Current Photovoltaic Research
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• 제8권4호
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• pp.107-113
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• 2020

Here we report the long-term stability of polymer:nonfullerene solar cells which were stored under dark and indoor light condition. The polymer:nonfullerene solar cells were fabricated using bulk heterojunction (BHJ) layers of poly[(2,6-(4,8-bis(5-(2-ethylhexyl) thiophen-2-yl)-benzo[1,2-b:4,5-b']dithiophene))-alt-(5,5-(1',3'-di-2-thienyl-5',7-bis(2-ethylhexyl)benzo[1',2'-c:4',5'-c']dithiophene-4,8-dione))] (PBDB-T) and 3,9-bis(6-methyl-2-methylene-(3-(1,1-dicyanomethylene)-indanone))-5,5,11,11-tetrakis(4-hexylphenyl)-dithieno[2,3-d:2',3-d']-s-indaceno[1,2-b:5,6-b']dithiophene (IT-M). To investigate their long-term stability, the PBDB-T:IT-M solar cells were stored in an argon-filled glove box. One set of the fabricated solar cells was completely covered with an aluminum foil to prevent any effect of light, whereas another set was exposed to indoor light. The solar cells were subjected to a regular performance measurement for 40 weeks. Results revealed that the PBDB-T:IT-M solar cells underwent a gradual decay in performance irrespective of the storage condition. However, the PBDB-T:IT-M solar cells stored under indoor light condition exhibited relatively lower power conversion efficiency (PCE) than those stored under the dark. The inferior stability of the solar cells under indoor light was explained by the noticeably changed optical absorption spectra and dark spot generation, indicative of degradations in the BHJ layers.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제32권4호
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• pp.367-377
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• 2015

Atmospheric drag force is an important source of perturbation of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) orbit satellites, and solar activity is a major factor for changes in atmospheric density. In particular, the orbital lifetime of a satellite varies with changes in solar activity, so care must be taken in predicting the remaining orbital lifetime during preparation for post-mission disposal. In this paper, the System Tool Kit (STK$^{(R)}$) Long-term Orbit Propagator is used to analyze the changes in orbital lifetime predictions with respect to solar activity. In addition, the STK$^{(R)}$ Lifetime tool is used to analyze the change in orbital lifetime with respect to solar flux data generation, which is needed for the orbital lifetime calculation, and its control on the drag coefficient control. Analysis showed that the application of the most recent solar flux file within the Lifetime tool gives a predicted trend that is closest to the actual orbit. We also examine the effect of the drag coefficient, by performing a comparative analysis between varying and constant coefficients in terms of solar activity intensities.