• Title/Summary/Keyword: Long-term Prediction

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Development of the forecasting model for import volume by item of major countries based on economic, industrial structural and cultural factors: Focusing on the cultural factors of Korea (경제적, 산업구조적, 문화적 요인을 기반으로 한 주요 국가의 한국 품목별 수입액 예측 모형 개발: 한국의, 한국에 대한 문화적 요인을 중심으로)

  • Jun, Seung-pyo;Seo, Bong-Goon;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.23-48
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    • 2021
  • The Korean economy has achieved continuous economic growth for the past several decades thanks to the government's export strategy policy. This increase in exports is playing a leading role in driving Korea's economic growth by improving economic efficiency, creating jobs, and promoting technology development. Traditionally, the main factors affecting Korea's exports can be found from two perspectives: economic factors and industrial structural factors. First, economic factors are related to exchange rates and global economic fluctuations. The impact of the exchange rate on Korea's exports depends on the exchange rate level and exchange rate volatility. Global economic fluctuations affect global import demand, which is an absolute factor influencing Korea's exports. Second, industrial structural factors are unique characteristics that occur depending on industries or products, such as slow international division of labor, increased domestic substitution of certain imported goods by China, and changes in overseas production patterns of major export industries. Looking at the most recent studies related to global exchanges, several literatures show the importance of cultural aspects as well as economic and industrial structural factors. Therefore, this study attempted to develop a forecasting model by considering cultural factors along with economic and industrial structural factors in calculating the import volume of each country from Korea. In particular, this study approaches the influence of cultural factors on imports of Korean products from the perspective of PUSH-PULL framework. The PUSH dimension is a perspective that Korea develops and actively promotes its own brand and can be defined as the degree of interest in each country for Korean brands represented by K-POP, K-FOOD, and K-CULTURE. In addition, the PULL dimension is a perspective centered on the cultural and psychological characteristics of the people of each country. This can be defined as how much they are inclined to accept Korean Flow as each country's cultural code represented by the country's governance system, masculinity, risk avoidance, and short-term/long-term orientation. The unique feature of this study is that the proposed final prediction model can be selected based on Design Principles. The design principles we presented are as follows. 1) A model was developed to reflect interest in Korea and cultural characteristics through newly added data sources. 2) It was designed in a practical and convenient way so that the forecast value can be immediately recalled by inputting changes in economic factors, item code and country code. 3) In order to derive theoretically meaningful results, an algorithm was selected that can interpret the relationship between the input and the target variable. This study can suggest meaningful implications from the technical, economic and policy aspects, and is expected to make a meaningful contribution to the export support strategies of small and medium-sized enterprises by using the import forecasting model.

Design of accelerated life test on temperature stress of piezoelectric sensor for monitoring high-level nuclear waste repository (고준위방사성폐기물 처분장 모니터링용 피에조센서의 온도 스트레스에 관한 가속수명시험 설계)

  • Hwang, Hyun-Joong;Park, Changhee;Hong, Chang-Ho;Kim, Jin-Seop;Cho, Gye-Chun
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.451-464
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    • 2022
  • The high-level nuclear waste repository is a deep geological disposal system exposed to complex environmental conditions such as high temperature, radiation, and ground-water due to handling spent nuclear fuel. Continuous exposure can lead to cracking and deterioration of the structure over time. On the other hand, the high-level nuclear waste repository requires an ultra-long life expectancy. Thus long-term structural health monitoring is essential. Various sensors such as an accelerometer, earth pressure gauge, and displacement meter can be used to monitor the health of a structure, and a piezoelectric sensor is generally used. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a highly durable sensor based on the durability assessment of the piezoelectric sensor. This study designed an accelerated life test for durability assessment and life prediction of the piezoelectric sensor. Based on the literature review, the number of accelerated stress levels for a single stress factor, and the number of samples for each level were selected. The failure mode and mechanism of the piezoelectric sensor that can occur in the environmental conditions of the high-level waste repository were analyzed. In addition, two methods were proposed to investigate the maximum harsh condition for the temperature stress factor. The reliable operating limit of the piezoelectric sensor was derived, and a reasonable accelerated stress level was set for the accelerated life test. The suggested methods contain economical and practical ideas and can be widely used in designing accelerated life tests of piezoelectric sensors.

Development of Deep-Learning-Based Models for Predicting Groundwater Levels in the Middle-Jeju Watershed, Jeju Island (딥러닝 기법을 이용한 제주도 중제주수역 지하수위 예측 모델개발)

  • Park, Jaesung;Jeong, Jiho;Jeong, Jina;Kim, Ki-Hong;Shin, Jaehyeon;Lee, Dongyeop;Jeong, Saebom
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.697-723
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    • 2022
  • Data-driven models to predict groundwater levels 30 days in advance were developed for 12 groundwater monitoring stations in the middle-Jeju watershed, Jeju Island. Stacked long short-term memory (stacked-LSTM), a deep learning technique suitable for time series forecasting, was used for model development. Daily time series data from 2001 to 2022 for precipitation, groundwater usage amount, and groundwater level were considered. Various models were proposed that used different combinations of the input data types and varying lengths of previous time series data for each input variable. A general procedure for deep-learning-based model development is suggested based on consideration of the comparative validation results of the tested models. A model using precipitation, groundwater usage amount, and previous groundwater level data as input variables outperformed any model neglecting one or more of these data categories. Using extended sequences of these past data improved the predictions, possibly owing to the long delay time between precipitation and groundwater recharge, which results from the deep groundwater level in Jeju Island. However, limiting the range of considered groundwater usage data that significantly affected the groundwater level fluctuation (rather than using all the groundwater usage data) improved the performance of the predictive model. The developed models can predict the future groundwater level based on the current amount of precipitation and groundwater use. Therefore, the models provide information on the soundness of the aquifer system, which will help to prepare management plans to maintain appropriate groundwater quantities.

Recent Progress in Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Research : A Review of Papers Published in the Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering in 2016 (설비공학 분야의 최근 연구 동향 : 2016년 학회지 논문에 대한 종합적 고찰)

  • Lee, Dae-Young;Kim, Sa Ryang;Kim, Hyun-Jung;Kim, Dong-Seon;Park, Jun-Seok;Ihm, Pyeong Chan
    • Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.327-340
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    • 2017
  • This article reviews the papers published in the Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering during 2016. It is intended to understand the status of current research in the areas of heating, cooling, ventilation, sanitation, and indoor environments of buildings and plant facilities. Conclusions are as follows. (1) The research works on the thermal and fluid engineering have been reviewed as groups of flow, heat and mass transfer, the reduction of pollutant exhaust gas, cooling and heating, the renewable energy system and the flow around buildings. CFD schemes were used more for all research areas. (2) Research works on heat transfer area have been reviewed in the categories of heat transfer characteristics, pool boiling and condensing heat transfer and industrial heat exchangers. Researches on heat transfer characteristics included the results of the long-term performance variation of the plate-type enthalpy exchange element made of paper, design optimization of an extruded-type cooling structure for reducing the weight of LED street lights, and hot plate welding of thermoplastic elastomer packing. In the area of pool boiling and condensing, the heat transfer characteristics of a finned-tube heat exchanger in a PCM (phase change material) thermal energy storage system, influence of flow boiling heat transfer on fouling phenomenon in nanofluids, and PCM at the simultaneous charging and discharging condition were studied. In the area of industrial heat exchangers, one-dimensional flow network model and porous-media model, and R245fa in a plate-shell heat exchanger were studied. (3) Various studies were published in the categories of refrigeration cycle, alternative refrigeration/energy system, system control. In the refrigeration cycle category, subjects include mobile cold storage heat exchanger, compressor reliability, indirect refrigeration system with $CO_2$ as secondary fluid, heat pump for fuel-cell vehicle, heat recovery from hybrid drier and heat exchangers with two-port and flat tubes. In the alternative refrigeration/energy system category, subjects include membrane module for dehumidification refrigeration, desiccant-assisted low-temperature drying, regenerative evaporative cooler and ejector-assisted multi-stage evaporation. In the system control category, subjects include multi-refrigeration system control, emergency cooling of data center and variable-speed compressor control. (4) In building mechanical system research fields, fifteenth studies were reported for achieving effective design of the mechanical systems, and also for maximizing the energy efficiency of buildings. The topics of the studies included energy performance, HVAC system, ventilation, renewable energies, etc. Proposed designs, performance tests using numerical methods and experiments provide useful information and key data which could be help for improving the energy efficiency of the buildings. (5) The field of architectural environment was mostly focused on indoor environment and building energy. The main researches of indoor environment were related to the analyses of indoor thermal environments controlled by portable cooler, the effects of outdoor wind pressure in airflow at high-rise buildings, window air tightness related to the filling piece shapes, stack effect in core type's office building and the development of a movable drawer-type light shelf with adjustable depth of the reflector. The subjects of building energy were worked on the energy consumption analysis in office building, the prediction of exit air temperature of horizontal geothermal heat exchanger, LS-SVM based modeling of hot water supply load for district heating system, the energy saving effect of ERV system using night purge control method and the effect of strengthened insulation level to the building heating and cooling load.

Topographical Change Monitoring of the Sandbar and Estimation of Suspended Solid Flux in the Nakdong River Estuary - Focused on Jinudo - (낙동강 하구역 사주지형 변동과 부유사(SS) 수송량 산정 - 진우도를 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, I.C.;Lim, S.P.;Yoon, H.S.;Kim, H.T.
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.70-77
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    • 2008
  • In this study, to establish countermeasure from marine casualties as a basic study fur long-term prediction of topographical change around Jinudo in the Nakdong river estuary, spatio-temporal topographical change monitoring was carried out. Also, in order to estimate the deposition variations concerning SS (Suspended Solid) flux which moved at St.S1 during neap and spring tide, respectively. From the topographical monitoring, it was found that the annual mean ground level and deposition rate were 141 mm and 0.36 mm/day and all parts except the northern part of Jinudo had the active topographical changes and a tendency to annually deposit. From vertical distribution of SS net fluxes, $SS_{LH}$ (latitudinal SS net flux) during spring tide overall flows average 28 $kg/m^2/hr$ (eastward), and $SS_{LV}$ (longitudinal SS net flux) flows average 11.1 $kg/m^2/hr$ (northward). And, $SS_{LH}$ overall flows average 4.8 $kg/m^2/hr$ (eastward), and $SS_{LV}$ flows average 1.5 $kg/m^2/hr$ (northward) during neap tide similar with spring tide. The depth averaged values of the latitudinal and longitudinal SS net fluxes during spring tide were approximately 6 times higher than those during neap tide. As result of, it was considered that topographical change of southern part of Jinudo was affected by resuspension of bottom sediments due to strong current in bottom layer during flood flow.

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Impacts of Two Types of El Niño on Hydrologic Variability in Annual Maximum Flow and Low Flow in the Han River Basin (두 가지 El Niño 형태에 따른 한강 유역의 연최대홍수량 및 저유량의 변화 분석)

  • Kim, Jong-Suk;Yoon, Sun-Kwon;Lee, Joo-Heon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.45 no.10
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    • pp.969-981
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    • 2012
  • In this study, we analysed hydrologic variability in quantity and onset of annual maximum flow and low flow by impacts of the different phases of ENSO (El Ni$\tilde{n}$o Southern Oscillation) over the Han River Basin. The results show that annual maximum flow has increased statistically significant about 48.3% of all over the watershed. The onset of annual maximum flow was delayed in the west of the Han River basins and in the east of the basins was likely to be rapid onset. Also, this study shows that 7-day low flow was deceased statistically significant about 26.0% of the total area in the Han River Basin, and onset of 7-day low flow tends to be faster in the upper-middle basins of the Han River. The onset of annual maximum flow shows similar pattern during the CT (Cold tongue)/WP (Warm-pool) El Ni$\tilde{n}$o years, but annual maximum flow appeared less in 89.0% of all basins during the CT El Ni$\tilde{n}$o years. In addition, the onset of 7-day low flow tended to be faster about 17 days on average during the WP El Ni$\tilde{n}$o years, and 72.7% of the basins show significant increase during the CT El Ni$\tilde{n}$o years. Consequently, it was found that the different phases of CT/WP El Ni$\tilde{n}$o have effects on sensitivity to variability in quantity and onset of water resources over the Han River Basin. We expect that the present diagnostic study on hydrological variability during different phases of ENSO will provide useful information for long-term prediction and water resources management.

Site Monitoring System of Earthquake, Fault and Slope for Nuclear Power Plant Sites (원자력발전소의 부지감시시스템의 운영과 활용)

  • Park, Donghee;Cho, Sung-il;Lee, Yong Hee;Choi, Weon Hack;Lee, Dong Hun;Kim, Hak-sung
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.51 no.2
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    • pp.185-201
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    • 2018
  • Nuclear power plants(NPP) are constructed and operated to ensure safety against natural disasters and man-made disasters in all processes including site selection, site survey, design, construction, and operation. This paper will introduce a series of efforts conducted in Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co. Ltd., to assure the safety of nuclear power plant against earthquakes and other natural hazards. In particular, the present status of the earthquake, fault, and slope safety monitoring system for nuclear power plants is introduced. A earthquake observatory network for the NPP sites has been built up for nuclear safety and providing adequate seismic design standards for NPP sites by monitoring seismicity in and around NPPs since 1999. The Eupcheon Fault Monitoring System, composed of a strainmeter, seismometer, creepmeter, Global Positioning System, and groundwater meter, was installed to assess the safety of the Wolsung Nuclear Power Plant against earthquakes by monitoring the short- and long-term behavioral characteristics of the Eupcheon fault. Through the analysis of measured data, it was verified that the Eupcheon fault is a relatively stable fault that is not affected by earthquakes occurring around the southeastern part of the Korean peninsula. In addition, it was confirmed that the fault monitoring system could be very useful for seismic safety analysis and earthquake prediction study on the fault. K-SLOPE System for systematic slope monitoring was successfully developed for monitoring of the slope at nuclear power plants. Several kinds of monitoring devices including an inclinometer, tiltmeter, tension-wire, and precipitation gauge were installed on the NPP slope. A macro deformation analysis using terrestrial LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) was performed for overall slope deformation evaluation.

정지궤도 통신해양기상위성의 기상분야 요구사항에 관하여

  • Ahn, Myung-Hwan;Kim, Kum-Lan
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.20-42
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    • 2002
  • Based on the "Mid to Long Term Plan for Space Development", a project to launch COMeS (Communication, Oceanography, and Meteorological Satellite) into the geostationary orbit is undergoing. Accordingly, KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) has defined the meteorological missions and prepared the user requirements to fulfill the missions. To make a realistic user requirements, we prepared a first draft based on the ideal meteorological products derivable from a geostationary platform and sent the RFI (request for information) to the sensor manufacturers. Based on the responses to the RFI and other considerations, we revised the user requirement to be a realistic plan for the 2008 launch of the satellite. This manuscript introduces the revised user requirements briefly. The major mission defined in the revised user requirement is the augmentation of the detection and prediction ability of the severe weather phenomena, especially around the Korean Peninsula. The required payload is an enhanced Imager, which includes the major observation channels of the current geostationary sounder. To derive the required meteorological products from the Imager, at least 12 channels are required with the optimum of 16 channels. The minimum 12 channels are 6 wavelength bands used for current geostationary satellite, and additional channels in two visible bands, a near infrared band, two water vapor bands and one ozone absorption band. From these enhanced channel observation, we are going to derive and utilize the information of water vapor, stability index, wind field, and analysis of special weather phenomena such as the yellow sand event in addition to the standard derived products from the current geostationary Imager data. For a better temporal coverage, the Imager is required to acquire the full disk data within 15 minutes and to have the rapid scan mode for the limited area coverage. The required thresholds of spatial resolutions are 1 km and 2 km for visible and infrared channels, respectively, while the target resolutions are 0.5 km and 1 km.

Korean Ocean Forecasting System: Present and Future (한국의 해양예측, 오늘과 내일)

  • Kim, Young Ho;Choi, Byoung-Ju;Lee, Jun-Soo;Byun, Do-Seong;Kang, Kiryong;Kim, Young-Gyu;Cho, Yang-Ki
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.89-103
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    • 2013
  • National demands for the ocean forecasting system have been increased to support economic activity and national safety including search and rescue, maritime defense, fisheries, port management, leisure activities and marine transportation. Further, the ocean forecasting has been regarded as one of the key components to improve the weather and climate forecasting. Due to the national demands as well as improvement of the technology, the ocean forecasting systems have been established among advanced countries since late 1990. Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE) significantly contributed to the achievement and world-wide spreading of ocean forecasting systems. Four stages of GODAE were summarized. Goal, vision, development history and research on ocean forecasting system of the advanced countries such as USA, France, UK, Italy, Norway, Australia, Japan, China, who operationally use the systems, were examined and compared. Strategies of the successfully established ocean forecasting systems can be summarized as follows: First, concentration of the national ability is required to establish successful operational ocean forecasting system. Second, newly developed technologies were shared with other countries and they achieved mutual and cooperative development through the international program. Third, each participating organization has devoted to its own task according to its role. In Korean society, demands on the ocean forecasting system have been also extended. Present status on development of the ocean forecasting system and long-term plan of KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration), KHOA (Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Administration), NFRDI (National Fisheries Research & Development Institute), ADD (Agency for Defense Development) were surveyed. From the history of the pre-established systems in other countries, the cooperation among the relevant Korean organizations is essential to establish the accurate and successful ocean forecasting system, and they can form a consortium. Through the cooperation, we can (1) set up high-quality ocean forecasting models and systems, (2) efficiently invest and distribute financial resources without duplicate investment, (3) overcome lack of manpower for the development. At present stage, it is strongly requested to concentrate national resources on developing a large-scale operational Korea Ocean Forecasting System which can produce open boundary and initial conditions for local ocean and climate forecasting models. Once the system is established, each organization can modify the system for its own specialized purpose. In addition, we can contribute to the international ocean prediction community.

Spatial Patterns and Temporal Variability of the Haines Index related to the Wildland Fire Growth Potential over the Korean Peninsula (한반도 산불 확장 잠재도와 관련된 Haines Index의 시.공간적 특징)

  • Choi Cwang-Yong;Kim Jun-Su;Won Myoung-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.41 no.2 s.113
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    • pp.168-187
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    • 2006
  • Windy meteorological conditions and dried fire fuels due to higher atmospheric instability and dryness in the lower troposphere can exacerbate fire controls and result in more losses of forest resources and residential properties due to enhanced large wildland fires. Long-term (1979-2005) climatology of the Haines Index reconstructed in this study reveals that spatial patterns and intra-annual variability of the atmospheric instability and dryness in the lower troposphere affect the frequency of wildland fire incidences over the Korean Peninsula. Exponential regression models verify that daily high Haines Index and its monthly frequency has statistically significant correlations with the frequency of the wildland fire occurrences during the fire season (December-April) in South Korea. According to the climatic maps of the Haines Index created by the Geographic Information System (GIS) using the Digital Elevation Model (DEM), the lowlands below 500m from the mean sea level in the northwestern regions of the Korean Peninsula demonstrates the high frequency of the Haines Index equal to or greater than five in April and May. The annual frequency of the high Haines Index represents an increasing trend across the Korean Peninsula since the mid-1990s, particularly in Gyeongsangbuk-do and along the eastern coastal areas. The composite of synoptic weather maps at 500hPa for extreme events, in which the high Haines Index lasted for several days consecutively, illustrates that the cold low pressure system developed around the Sea of Okhotsk in the extreme event period enhances the pressure gradient and westerly wind speed over the Korean Peninsula. These results demonstrate the need for further consideration of the spatial-temporal characteristics of vertical atmospheric components, such as atmospheric instability and dryness, in the current Korean fire prediction system.