• Title/Summary/Keyword: Long-run trend

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User charges of transport infrastructures and economic theories (교통시설 사용료 산정 원칙과 경제이론)

  • 최진석;이광석;한은영
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2001.10a
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    • pp.74-82
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    • 2001
  • This paper sets out what can be said in general about pricing within transport sectors. In this paper we briefly restate the economic principles of pricing that hold for two transport sectors-road and rail. This is used as a basis for a discussion of pricing principles in the transport sector. Here we focus on the pricing of user charges of transport infrastructures. We start this paper to analyse road transport sector and compare it with rail sector. In fact as a result of the trend towards rail reform, the issue of charging mechanisms for the use of rail infrastructure has become increasingly important. In this paper, we just take the problem in theory and present some foreign cases. But our long-run objective will be the design of efficient user charges of infrastructures based on fair intermodal competition.

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Analysis of the Insulation aging for the stator winding (고정자권선의 절연열화 특성분석)

  • Oh, Bong-Keun;Choi, Kyo-Nam;Han, Chang-Dong;Lim, Kee-Joe
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2006.07e
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    • pp.23-24
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    • 2006
  • Stator winding of hydro generator is gradually deteriorated by multi-stress and steady degradation of insulation results in insulation breakdown. The region where insulation breakdown occurs in stator winding is part where the multi-stress causes the defect of insulation material and electrical stress has been concentrated. Therefore, we judged locations of insulation breakdown to be varied according to various stress factors in service. In this paper, we drew the stator winding of hydro generators which has run for a long time and separated it into 3 parts(central part, end winding part, drawing part) according to the positions laid on the core. We performed electrical and thermal stress on these specimens for 1000 hrs under the same condition, measured the condition regularlyand analyzed the insulation status of each winding by performing partial discharge test. In addition, we analyzed the trend of partial discharge concerning specimens that caused the insulation breakdown during aging.

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Learning Laparoscopic Liver Resection for Liver Cancer

  • Tan To Cheung
    • Journal of Digestive Cancer Research
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.28-31
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    • 2017
  • The number of laparosocpic liver resection performed every years has been increasing. There is a trend than more major hepatectomy and complex liver resection is being reported. However there has been a major obstacles in many centers because open liver resection is still considered as a gold standard and many surgeons are still getting used to the old method of liver resection. To start a new procedure, education and training is essential in order to achieve a good outcome without compromising the safety of the patients. A gradual progression is crucial in order to avoid dreadful complication. The development of the consensus meeting and difficulty score has facility the understanding of safe practice in the development of laparoscopic liver resection. In a long run, development of registry system will improve transparency and safety of this operation.

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Long term trends in the Korean professional baseball (한국프로야구 기록들의 장기추세)

  • Lee, Jang Taek
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2015
  • This paper offers some long term perspective on what has been happening to some baseball statistics for Korean professional baseball. The data used are league summaries by year over the period 1982-2013. For the baseball statistics, statistically significant positive correlations (p < 0.01) were found for doubles (2B), runs batted in (RBI), bases on balls (BB), strike outs (SO), grounded into double play (GIDP), hit by pitch (HBP), on base percentage (OBP), OPS, earned run average (ERA), wild pitches (WP) and walks plus hits divided by innings pitched (WHIP) increased with year. There was a statistically significant decreasing trend in the correlations for triples (3B), caught stealing (CS), errors (E), completed games (CG), shutouts (SHO) and balks (BK) with year (trend p < 0.01). The ARIMA model of Box-Jenkins is applied to find a model to forecast future baseball measures. Univariate time series results suggest that simple lag-1 models fit some baseball measures quite well. In conclusion, the single most important change in Korean professional baseball is the overall incidence of completed games (CG) downward. Also the decrease of strike outs (SO) is very remarkable.

Study on the Foundation of a Carpentry Studio Run by a Female Owner (여성이 운영하는 목공방 창업에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Young Joo
    • Journal of the Korea Furniture Society
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.203-210
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    • 2016
  • According to the research on the gender ratio of furniture design courses at universities, female students account for 70 to 80 percent of the total enrollments. Likewise, other design courses reveal the similar trend. Even though female students want to build up their career in the furniture design or related fields, the figure is not so high. There is a trend that many female designers tend to take time off or quite their jobs after their marriage for that reasons such as pregnancy, childbirth, the upbringing of children and so on. The study also shows that women with higher education feel more difficult to resume their careers after being left from economic activity for a long period; this results in the lower figure of women involved in the specialized jobs than men. In particular, the furniture companies avoid hiring old female designers because they believe that younger candidates are more capable of learning the latest style; therefore, it has become harder for the job seeks to win the competition in the job market. The data released by Statistics Korea in 2015 shows that there was the higher increase in female employees than the figure of the male workers, compared to the previous year. As it can be seen, female workforce was emerged as the new growth power; Nevertheless, the working environment and conditions haven't meet the demands from women despite the gradual rise of female job seekers inspired by their wish to achieve self-realization, gender equality. To conclude, this is to suggest the plans for the foundation and management of small-scale carpentry studios so that women, who have a degree in furniture design studies and wish to resume their careers after their long breaks, start their own carpentry studios so as to reach self-realization and feel satisfied with their work while earning their livelihoods.

Quantifying the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff for Vugia - Thu Bon River Basin in Central of Viet Nam

  • Lan, Pham Thi Huong;Thai, Nguyen Canh;Quang, Tran Viet;Long, Ngo Le
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.233-233
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    • 2015
  • Vu Gia - Thu Bon basin is located in central Vietnam between Truong Son mountain range on the border with Lao in the west and the East Sea in the east. The basin occupies about 10,350 km2 or roughly 90% of the Quang Nam Province and includes Da Nang, a very large city with about 876,000 inhabitants. Total annual rainfall ranges from about 2,000 mm in central and downstream areas to more than 4,000 mm in southern mountainous areas. Rainfall during the monsoon season accounts for 65 to 80% of total annual rainfall. The highest amount of rainfall occurs in October and November which accounts for 40 to 50% of the annual rainfall. Rainfall in the dry season represents about 20 to 35% of the total annual rainfall. The low rainfall season usually occurs from February to April, accounting for only 3 to 5% of the total annual rainfall. The mean annual flow volume in the basin is $19.1{\times}109m 3$. Similar to the distribution of rainfall, annual flows are distinguished by two distinct seasons (the flood season and the low-flow season). The flood season commonly starts in the mid-September and ends in early January. Flows during the flood season account for 62 to 69% of the total annual water volume, while flows in the dry season comprise 22 to 38% of total annual run-off. The water volume gauged in November, the highest flow month, accounts for 26 to 31% of the total annual run-off while the driest period is April with flows of 2 to 3% of the total annual run-off. There are some hydropower projects in the Vu Gia - Thu Bon basin as the cascade of Song Bung 2, Song Bung 4, and Song Bung 5, the A Vuong project currently under construction, the Dak Mi 1 and Dak Mi 4 projects on the Khai tributary, and the Song Con project on the Con River. Both the Khai tributary and the Song Con join the Bung River downstream of SB5, although the Dak Mi 4 project involves an inter-basin diversion to Thu Bon. Much attention has recently been focused on the effects that climate variability and human activities have had on runoff. In this study, data from the Vu Gia - Thu Bon River Basin in the central of Viet Nam were analyzed to investigate changes in annual runoff during the period of 1977-2010. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and the Mann-Kendall-Sneyers test were used to identify trend and step change point in the annual runoff. It was found that the basin had a significant increasing trend in annual runoff. The hydrologic sensitivity analysis method was employed to evaluate the effects of climate variability and human activities on mean annual runoff for the human-induced period based on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. This study quantitatively distinguishes the effects between climate variability and human activities on runoff, which can do duty for a reference for regional water resources assessment and management.

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Assessment of Future Water Circulation Rate in Dodang Watershed under Climate Change (기후변화에 따른 도당천 유역 미래 물순환율 평가)

  • Kwak, Jihye;Hwang, Soonho;Jun, Sang Min;Kim, Seokhyeon;Choi, Soon Kun;Kang, Moon Seong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.62 no.4
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    • pp.99-110
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    • 2020
  • The objective of this study is to analyze the trend of changes in the water circulation rates under climate change by adopting the concept of WCR defined by the Ministry of Environment. With the need for sound water circulation recovery, the MOE proposed the idea of WCR as (1-direct flow/precipitation). The guideline for calculating WCR suggests the SCS method, which is only suitable for short term rainfall events. However, climate change, which affects WCR significantly, is a global phenomenon and happens gradually over a long period. Therefore, long-term trends in WCRs should also be considered when analyzing changes in WCR due to climate change. RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were used to simulate future runoff. SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was run under the future daily data from GCMs (General Circulation Models) after the calibration. In 2085s, monthly WCR decreased by 4.2-9.9% and 3.3-8.7% in April and October. However, the WCR in the winter increased as the precipitation during the winter decreased compared to the baseline. In the aspect of yearly WCR, the value showed a decrease in most GCMs in the mid-long future. In particular, in the case of the RCP 8.5 scenario, the WCR reduced 2-3 times rapidly than the RCP 4.5 scenario. The WCR of 2055s did not significantly differ from the 2025s, but the value declined by 0.6-2.8% at 2085s.

The Convergence of Poverty Rates among States across the U.S.

  • Kim, Yung-Keun
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.131-142
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    • 2018
  • Since income growth rate and poverty level are related, there is a possibility that the poverty rate may converge in the long run steady state as well. If the poverty rate converges, then for this study the state that begins with the high poverty rate would have a higher poverty reduction rate. To examine the convergence of poverty rate among the US states, this study uses two times series methodologies. First, in order to prevent the power loss from ignoring the structural break when testing for a unit root in a single time series, this study employs the newly developed panel LM unit root tests with level and trend shifts. The results of unit root tests of the log of poverty rate without allowing for structural breaks show that twenty six states reject the null hypothesis of unit root test for the ADF test, twenty five states for the LM test, and thirty five states for the RALS-LM test. The result of unit root tests that allow one structural break shows that the null hypothesis of a unit root test is rejected for twenty two states with the LM test, and thirty three states with the RALS-LM test. This supports poverty rates are converging among US states.

Long-run Estimation of Fertilizer Demand in Korea to Meet the National Food Supply (식량수급(食糧需給)에 따른 비료수요(肥料需要) 전망(展望))

  • Lee, Yun-Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.133-147
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    • 1976
  • 1. The purpose of this study is to provide a series of statistical "bench marks" from which one can begin to think systematically about the required development of the Korean food and fertilizer needs over the next quarter-century. 2. The Korean population has been estimated by the characteristics of the population and its social and political situations today. Because fertility and mortality rates are relatively stable and are under control of politics concerned, the estimation rates were established with 1.6% over 1975-1980, 1.3% over 1981-1990, and 1.0% over 1991-2000. 3. Annual per capita absorption of milled rice has fluctuated rather closely around 140kg, since 1968, with no evidence of declining trend. Per capita absorption of barley and wheat around 120 kg, and legumes around 10.6kg, However because the case of wheat and corn productions are rather difficult the self-sufficiency in the future, the rice is considered to be accelerate its yield growth surplus the level of self-sufficiency to export. 4. The fertilizer demand in each element has been calculated by mechanical multiplication of "the recommend index of fetilizer application" to yield a unit production over the need of national food supply by crop year. 5. As a results refer to Table (8), the estimated quantities of total fertilizer demand to meet the national food supply of the years of 1974, 1980, 1985, 1.990, 1995, and 2000 are reached around 871500, 1138150, 1375480, 1515030, 1652090 and 1799850 metric tons in each year.

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Using scratch test to evaluate cohesive bond strength of Mo composite coating

  • Koiprasert, Hathaipat;Thaiwatthana, Sirinee;Sheppard, Panadda
    • International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.34-41
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    • 2015
  • Bonding strength of a thermal sprayed coating is difficult to measure using a conventional pull-off test method. Scratch test is a potential alternative testing method. An adhesive and a cohesive bond strength of the coating can be measured by the pull-off test while the scratch test performed on the cross-section of the thermal sprayed coating can only demonstrate the cohesive bond strength of the coating. Nevertheless, it is still beneficial to perform the scratch testing on the cross-section of the coating for the sake of comparison thus providing an alternative to the pull-off test. The scratch test method can reduce testing time and cost in the long run due to a significant cost reduction in consumables and energy and time saving from the curing step of the glue used in the pull-off test. This research investigates the possibility of using the scratch test to measure the cohesive bond strength of Mo/NiCrBSi composite coating. The results from the pull-off test and the scratch test indicate that the cohesive bond strengths of the Mo composite coating show similar trend and that the cohesive bond strength are increased when increasing NiCrBSi content.