• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.37 no.3
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• pp.65-81
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• 2018

This study estimated the long-run and the short-run price and income elasticity of crude oil demand by using the ARDL model in Korea. First, the long-run cointegration relationship existed between crude oil demand and price or income in the ARDL-bounds tests. Second, the long-run own price, the cross price elasticity and the income elasticity were both statistically significant elastic and sensitive in the ARDL. Third, there was autocorrelation of the residuals, but no misspecification errors and heteroscedasticity, and then the residuals showed a normal distribution. And the CUSUM & CUSUMSQ tests showed that the coefficients were stable. Fourth, the short-run own price, the cross price elasticity and the income elasticity were both statistically significant elastic and sensitive in the ARDL-RECM. The ECM with the short-run dynamics showed rapid adjustments in the long-run equilibrium of oil demand after the economic crisis. In the short-run, the sensitivity of crude oil demand to price and income changes has moved in the same direction as the long-run case. Korea, depending too much on foreign crude oil, is vulnerable to the shocks of oil prices, so rising oil prices can certainly have a negative impact on Korea's trade balance. And the elasticity of long-run oil prices may help to control and manage Korea's oil demand. The government needs to strengthen monitoring of the country's policies and market trends related to crude oil, establish strategies to customize national policies and market conditions, and strengthen active market dominance efforts through pioneering new market and diversification.

• Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.40-54
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• 2017

According to FAO, "agricultural sectors are particularly exposed to the effects of climate change and increases climate variability". As a result, the study makes an attempt to answer the question: Is there a causal effect between agricultural production and carbon dioxide emissions in Ghana? By employing a time series data spanning from 1960 to 2015 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag method. There was evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship running from copra production, corn production, green coffee production, milled rice production, millet production, palm kernel production and sorghum production to carbon dioxide emissions. The short-run equilibrium relationship shows that, a 1% increase in copra and green coffee production will increase carbon dioxide emissions by 0.22% and 0.03%, a 1% increase in millet and sorghum production will decrease carbon dioxide emissions by 0.13% and 0.11% in the short-run while a 31% of future fluctuations in carbon dioxide emissions are due to shocks in corn production. There was bidirectional causality between milled rice production and carbon dioxide emissions, millet production and carbon dioxide emissions and, sorghum production and carbon dioxide emissions; and a unidirectional causality running from corn production to carbon dioxide emissions and carbon dioxide emissions to palm kernel production.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.8 no.5
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• pp.7-13
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• 2017

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to analyze the relationship between the real exchange rate and the output, which is based on the macroeconomic equilibrium theory in China. Its aim will be to verify whether the change in the real exchange rate has a significant effect on the output or not. Research design, data, and methodology - This study endeavors tries to investigate the correlation among economic variables under the macroeconomic market (the commodity market and the money market) equilibrium. So, time-series data from 1990 to 2016 is applied to establish a vector auto-regression (VAR) model so as to perform an empirical analysis. Results - The empirical results reveal that an increase in the real exchange rate will result in an increase in the output in the short run. However, the empirical results also indicate that this kind of mechanism cannot work in the long run. Conclusions - The effect of a decrease of real exchange rate on output is significant in the short run. Also, this paper suggests that the total supply and the total demand can promote economic growth. The fiscal and money policy play a significant role in economic growth in China as well.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.99-110
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• 2021

This study aims to examine empirically the industry and economic fundamental factors that affect the stock prices of the leading palm oil company in Indonesia. The dynamics of stock price are analyzed using the autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL) model both for symmetric and asymmetric effects. The data used in this study are monthly data for the period from 2008:01 to 2020:03. In the long run, the company stock price moves in line with the competitor company stock price at the current time. The palm oil price has a positive effect on the stock price. Meanwhile, inflation negatively affects the stock price in the short run. The estimated equilibrium correction coefficient indicates a reasonably quick correction of the distortion of the stock price equilibrium in monthly dynamics. However, fundamental factors have asymmetric effects, especially the response of stock price when these factors decrease rather than increase in the short run. Stock prices that are responsive to declines in fundamental performance should be of particular concern to both investors and management in their strategic decision making. The results of this study will contribute to the enrichment of literature related to stock prices from the viewpoint of economic analysis on firm-level data.

• Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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• v.12 no.6
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• pp.748-756
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• 2006

This study mainly deals with price behavior developed in a agricultural location model (or closed model) considering the production and demand aspects. The short-run situation of price and output is associated with the yearly fluctuation of yield from agricultural production. Demand is generally regarded as constant in the short-run because of being inelastic over short time. The long-run situation is associated with a period in which all related variables can be varied. Then a price behaviors from the two contrasting closed models have been further explored in the long-run economy. Agricultural price for each activity in the closed model is affected by change in agricultural production. Also, falling agricultural price is connected with lower rents and lower land values.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.71-76
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• 2014

This study aims to analyze the market interactions among the main farmed fish species in Korea, using both multivariate and bivariate cointegration analysis. For the analysis of market interactions among farmed fish species, major four farmed fish species, olive flounder (Paralichthys olivaceus), black rockfish (Sebastes schlegeli), red seabream (Pagrus major), and grey mullet (Mugil cephalus) were selected as the analytical target species. And their real price data by month from January 2000 to December 2011 were used in the analysis. The results of the multivariate cointegration test for four farmed fish showed that there would be no long-term equilibrium relationships among farmed fish species, and consequently they do not share the same market. The results of bivariate cointegration test indicated that there was little evidence to suggest that all farmed fish species were cointegrated each other. However, it was only analyzed that olive flounder and grey mullet might have a long run equilibrium relationship.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.813-843
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• 2008

This paper investigates the presence of long-run and short-run price asymmetries in weekly gasoline prices from January 1997 to July 2008. In accordance with distribution channels, wholesale and retail stages are analyzed separately. An approach based on TAR and M-TAR cointegration tests, which entail matching asymmetric ECMs, is employed. For wholesale prices, asymmetries in the links with crude oil prices and exchange rates are found for both ECMs in the long-run and short-run. Exchange rates appear to play more significant role than crude oil prices in explaining the short-run price asymmetry. The rise in crude oil prices or exchange rates has statistically significant major impact on the increase of wholesale prices on the second week, not immediately as expected in the concept of 'rockets and feathers'. And asymmetrically, the fall does not have any statistically significant effect on the same period. The finding seems to be somewhat unusual. However, for retail prices, asymmetry m connection with wholesale prices is only revealed in the long-run. A symmetric price adjustment can be assumed in the short-run. Contrary to the long-run asymmetry found in the wholesale stage, in the retail stage, the speed of adjustment for negative deviations toward long-run equilibrium is faster than for positive ones, which is a phenomenon not favorable to consumers.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.47-59
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• 2017

The objective of this study is to determine the short run and long run dynamics between maritime import volume (IMV), industrial production (IP), and real effective exchange rate (REER) of the Korean Won over the REER of certain major currencies (US Dollar, Chinese Yuan, and Japanese Yen) in Korea's Jeonnam province. The Johansen and Juselius cointegration results reveal that at least one cointegration vector or long-run relationship exists. Hence, this study estimated the long run equilibrium equation, which indicates that both IP and REER are inelastic, although the former is bigger than the latter. Moreover, the dynamic causality analysis reveals short and long-run unidirectional causality from IP and REER to IMV in all three models. Further, in all the models, the results indicate short run unidirectional causality from REER to IP. In addition, the impulse response (IR) results show that the impulse of IP and REER decayed after four months. Additionally, the IR analysis results indicate that the REER of the Korean Won over the REER of Japanese Yen is the biggest with respect to the impact of relative REER on IP, which is the proxy variable of regional real income. Thus, empirical results indicated that real income and REER play an important role in determining the Jeonnam's maritime import demand behavior in the short run and long run. More importantly, substantial actions reducing unexpected fluctuation of the REER and real income based on micro and macro economic policies will increase the imported volume in the ports of the Jeonnam province.

• STI Policy Review
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.1-22
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• 2017

There has been a pronounced increase in research and development (R&D) expenditure in Singapore over the last two decades, with government spending accounting for a sizeable share. This increase has been spurred by public policy emphasis on research and innovation as engines of economic growth. This paper analyses the impact of R&D on economic performance in Singapore from 1978 to 2012 through the use of time series analysis. The Cobb-Douglas based analysis shows a long-run equilibrium relationship between Total Factor Productivity (TFP) and R&D investments. We found that the short-run productivity of R&D in Singapore is comparable to smaller advanced economies in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). However, in terms of long-run R&D productivity, Singapore lags slightly behind the smaller OECD nations and far behind the G7 countries. This suggests leakage of value capture and low absorptive capacity in local firms. Possibility of productivity improvements induced by policy changes in the 1990s was considered, but no evidence of significant structural breaks was found. Lastly, Granger causality analysis reveals that public sector R&D augments private sector R&D capital, thus playing an important role in generating externalities and spillover effects. Policy implications and lessons for other middle-income countries are discussed.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.79-89
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• 2023

The paper aims to investigate the asymmetric long-run and short-run relationships between inflation and remittance outflows in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (hereafter KSA) over the period 1971-2019 by using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. The statistical tests have supported the validity and stability of the model. The Wald F-test statistics confirm the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship among the model variables; remittance outflows, positive (negative) shocks in inflation rates, investment, real GDP, and trade openness. Moreover, the empirical results confirm the existence of an asymmetric effect of the inflation rate on remittance outflows. The response of foreign workers to an increase in inflation rates differs from their response to a decrease in inflation rates. However, this asymmetric relationship between the increases/decreases in inflation and remittance outflows is significantly weak. The weakness of this relationship is due to the high marginal remittance propensity of migrant workers, which is explained by the low consumption propensity of foreign workers and their ability to adjust to the high cost of living due to inflation and the imposition of accompanying fees. Finally, the change in the inflation rate is not among the main factors influencing foreign remittance decisions in Saudi Arabia.