• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.731-740
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• 2021

This research aims to investigate the determinants of real effective exchange rate in emerging ASEAN countries, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. The research was conducted by using quarterly time series data set from 1980Q1 to 2020Q3. Cointegration and the error correction model (ECM) methods were applied to test the long run and short run relationship of the real effective exchange rate and its determinants. The results indicate that the ratio of foreign direct investment to GDP and the government spending have significantly positive impact on real effective exchange rate in the Emerging ASEAN countries. The trade opening had influencing real effective exchange rate in most the Emerging ASEAN countries, except Vietnam. In addition, the international reserve (INR) had significant long-run impacts variables on real effective exchange rate in Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. In the short run equilibrium, the error collection term suggest that Indonesia and Malaysia are the fastest speed adjustment to equilibrium. In addition, the term of trade influence the real effective exchange rate in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines but it is not in Thailand and Vietnam. However, FDI is a major factor of the real effective exchange rate in Vietnam, but not for other countries.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권5호
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• pp.769-775
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• 2021

The objective of this research was to analyze the factors influencing the farm-gate shrimp prices in Thailand using monthly time series from January 2001 to December 2019. The econometric methodology was employed to satisfy the purpose, consisting of the cointegration test for revealing the long-run relationship and equilibrium elasticity between the variables as well as the error correction model for detecting speed adjustment to shock responses. The empirical results revealed that (1) the export shrimp prices, shrimp production in the country, and shrimp export volume indicated a long-run relationship running to the farm-gate shrimp prices in Thailand with the size of equilibrium elasticity equal to 1.083%, -0.256%, and 0.123, respectively, and (2) the farm-gate shrimp prices in Thailand would adjust to the equilibrium line with a speed equal to 20.147% if there was any kind of incident or shock which caused the relationship to deviate from the equilibrium point. There was no relationship in terms of global shrimp prices and the exchange rate for farm-gate shrimp prices in Thailand. The recommendations should emphasize the varieties of shrimp products for export to other countries beyond the main trading markets nowadays to reduce risks and fluctuations in the export prices of shrimp products.

• 지역연구
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• 제34권3호
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• pp.43-54
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• 2018

본 논문에서는 고령화의 진행이 초래하는 산업집적 패턴의 변화에 대해 신경제지리학적 접근을 통하여 분석하였다. 은퇴인구 변수의 추가는 단기적으로 지역별 물가, 소득, 명목임금 및 실질임금에 영향을 미친다. 일반적으로 장기균형 조건으로 채택되는 지역 간 실질임금의 균등화는 은퇴인구를 고려하지 못하므로 간접효용의 균등 조건을 추가하였으며, 새로운 장기균형을 달성케 하는 최적 세액을 제시한다. 은퇴인구의 발생은 모든 지역의 실질임금을 하락시킴과 동시에 효용기준을 만족시키는 특정 지역 제조업 종사자 비율의 지점을 하락시켜 제조업의 집적을 방해하는 반면, 세금은 은퇴인구가 발생한 지역의 효용과 실질임금을 높이고 다른 지역의 효용과 실질임금을 낮춘다. 이러한 상황에서 지역 간 실질임금 및 간접효용 비율이 같아지는 제조업 인구의 비율과 세금의 조합이 존재한다. 정부가 정액세의 부과를 통해 실질임금을 적절히 조정한다면 모든 지역에서 실질임금의 급격한 하락을 막으면서 효용수준을 안정시킬 수 있다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권1호
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• pp.37-46
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• 2020

The paper examines the dynamic relationship of domestic credit and stock market liquidity on the economic growth of the Philippines from 1995 to 2018 applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration, together with Granger causality test based on vector error correction model (VECM). The ARDL model indicated a long-run relationship of domestic credit and stock market liquidity on GDP growth. When the GDP per capita is the dependent variable there is weak cointegration. Also, the Johansen cointegration test confirmed the existence of long-run relationship of domestic credit and stock market liquidity both on GDP growth and GDP per capita. The VECM concludes a long-run causality running from domestic credit and stock market liquidity to GDP growth. At levels, domestic credit has significant short-run causal relationship with GDP growth. As for stock market liquidity at first lag, has significant short-run causal relationship with GDP growth. With regards to VECM for GDP per capita, domestic credit and stock market liquidity indicates no significant dynamic adjustment to a new equilibrium if a disturbance occurs in the whole system. At levels, the results indicated the presence of short-run causality from stock market liquidity and GDP per capita. The CUSUMSQ plot complements the findings of the CUSUM plot that the estimated models for GDP growth and GDP per capita were stable.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권10호
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• pp.23-34
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• 2020

The paper revisits the author's previous paper to examine short-run and long-run dynamic relationships between macroeconomic variables and stock prices in Korea. The data is updated to the period for which monthly data are available from January 1986 to June 2018 (390 observations) retrieved from the Bank of Korea. The results of Johansen cointegration test indicate that at least one cointegrating equation exists, confirming there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock prices in Korea. The results of vector error correction estimates confirm that: 1) the coefficient of the error correction term is significant with a negative sign, which is, a long-run dynamic relationship is observed between macroeconomic variables and stock prices; 2) for short-run dynamics, the nominal exchange rate of the Korean won per the US dollar is positively related to stock prices, while interest rates are negatively related to stock prices in the short-run; 3) the coefficient of global financial crises is insignificant, that is, the changes of stock prices are determined largely by their own dynamics in the model. The results suggest only that the global financial crises neither cause instability in the cointegrating vector, nor affect significant changes in the endogenous variables in the model.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제18권3호
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• pp.503-519
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• 2005

공적분검정은 변수들간의 장기적 균형관계에 따른 공적분벡터가 표본기간 동안 일정하다는 가정하에서 실시된다. 따라서 기존의 연구들은 변수들 사이의 공적분관계를 안정적 장기균형관계로 해석해왔으나 장기균형관계가 존재해도 유일하지 않을 수 있으며, 표본기간 중 중요한 사건이 발생하는 경우 이러한 관계에 영향을 미처 안정성이 반드시 성립될 수 없다는 사실은 간과해왔다. 본 연구에서는 추정된 공적분벡터가 안정성을 유지하는가를 확인하기 위해 추가로 통계적 검정을 실시하였다. 공적분회귀모형 모수의 안정성을 검정하는 방식을 세분${\cdot}$체계화하여 공적분백터의 안정성 및 변동형태를 검색하는 실증분석에 적용시켜 보았다.

• 산경연구논집
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• 제10권9호
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• pp.53-60
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• 2019

Purpose - The objective of this paper is to discover if there exists a relationship between the economic index and distribution industry index in Korean. Because of the distribution industry boom in the recent years, a lot of interest in the relationship between the economic index and distribution industry index in Korean and the economy has been generated. This article examine on the mutual influence between economic index and distribution industry index in Korean. Research design, data, and methodology - For this purpose, we use the vector-auto regression model, impulse response function and variance decomposition of the economic index and distribution industry index, Granger causality test using weekly data on the economic index and distribution industry price index in korea. The sample period is covering from January 2, 2010 to August 31, 2019. The VAR model can also be linked to cointegration analysis. Cointegration Analysis makes possible to find a mechanism causing x and y to move around a long-run equilibrium (Engle and Granger, 1987). This equilibrium means that external shocks may separate the series temporarily at any particular time, but there will be an overall tendency towards some type of long-run equilibrium. If variables are found to have this tendency they are said to be cointegrated and a long-run relationship between these series is established. These econometric tools have been applied widely into economics and business areas to analyze intertemporal linkages between different time series. Results - This research showed following main results. First, from the basic statistic analysis of the economic index and distribution industry index in Korean, the economic index and the distribution industry index in korea have unit roots. Second, there is at least one cointegration between the economic index and distribution industry index in Korean. Finally, the correlation between of the economic index and the distribution industry index in korea is (+) 0.528876. Conclusions - We find that the distribution industry price index Granger cause the economic index in korea. As a consequence, the distribution industry index affect the economic index in Korean. The distribution industry index to the economic index is stronger than that from the economic index to the distribution industry index.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제29권2호
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• pp.177-196
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• 2007

본 논문은 조세제도의 개편이 (기존의 세수를 유지하는) 경제 및 효용에 미치는 영향에 대해 소국경제를 위한 동적 일반균형모델을 한국경제에 적용하여 분석한다. 여러 가지의 조세제도 개편의 효과를 분석하는데, 특히 기업의 법인세나 가계의 근로소득세를 소비세(부가가치세)로 대체하는 경우 단기 및 장기적으로 어떠한 효과가 있는가를 살펴본다. 모델의 결과에 따르면 이같은 세제개편은 대체로 경제 전체의 효용을 1~3% 정도 증가시킨다. 단기적으로는 경제가 나빠지지만 장기적인 이익이 단기적인 효용감소를 능가한다. 하지만, 기업의 법인세를 낮추고 이를 가계의 근로소득세로 대체할 경우, 경제 전체의 효용은 낮아진다.

• 유통과학연구
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• 제11권7호
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• pp.15-22
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• 2013

Purpose - The study investigates the influence of tourism and hospitality industry on economic growth and CO2 emissions. Research design, data, and methodology - In the empirical analysis, unit root tests, cointegration test and vector error correction model regression using time series data of South Korea from the first quarter of 1970 to the third quarter of 2010 are performed to examine the long-run equilibrium relationship and short-run dynamics among the tourism and hospitality industry, CO2 emissions, economic growth and other industry sectors. Results - Results indicate that a long-run equilibrium relationship exists among these variables. Furthermore, the tourism and hospitality industry and CO2 emissions have high significant positive effect on economic growth. The tourism and hospitality industry in Korea, in turns, shows a high significant positive impact on economic growth while the industry sector incursa high significant negative impact on CO2 emissions. Conclusions - The tourism and hospitality industry in Korea may havebeen prompted by several factors such as accelerated process of technological innovation or energy and environmental policies. These findings suggest that the effectively managed tourism and hospitality sector in Korea has resulted in both economic growth and a reduction in CO2 emissions.

• 국제지역연구
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.3-27
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• 2012

본 연구는 패널 공적분 검정 그리고 비교적 최근에 개발된 패널 단위근 검정을 이용하여 지역 주택가격과 지역총생산 간의 장기관계를 분석하였다. 횡단면 의존성(cross-section dependence)이 확인된 경우, 이를 고려한 Pesaran의 CIPS 패널 단위근 검정을 이용하였다. 기존 패널 단위근 검정의 결과와 다르게 CIPS 검정은 변수들이 불안정성을 갖는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 패널 벡터오차수정모형(VECM)을 이용하여 변수들 간의 인과관계를 확인하였으며, 고정효과모형(Fixed effect)과 패널 자기회귀시차(ARDL)모형을 이용하여 계수들의 장기관계를 구체적으로 추정하였다. 먼저 변수들 간에 공적분관계가 형성되며 장 단기 인과관계가 성립하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 VECM 모형의 오차수정항은 통계적으로 유의한 것으로 나타나 변수들 간의 장기 공적분 관계를 뒷받침하고 있다. 모형의 추정 결과, 장기적으로 주택가격의 상승은 지역총생산을 증가시키며 반대의 관계도 성립함을 알 수 있다. 이 결과에 의해 우리나라 지역 주택시장에서 부의 효과(wealth effect)가 존재하고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과들과 함께 오차수정항으로부터, 주택 가격과 경제 변수들은 단기적으로는 일시적인 균형상태로부터 이탈될 수 있지만, 장기적으로는 이들 변수는 균형관계에 있다는 것을 의미한다.