• Journal of The Korean Society of Integrative Medicine
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• v.6 no.4
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• pp.149-169
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• 2018

Purpose : This study was to develop a strategy for modeling future workforce projections to serve as a basis for analyzing annual supply of and demand for physical therapists across the South Korea into 2030. Methods : In-and-out movement model was used to project the supply of physical therapists. The demand was projected according to the demand-based method which consists of four-stages such as estimation of the utilization rate of the base year, forecasting of health care utilization of the target years, forecasting of the requirements of clinical physical therapists and non-clinical physical therapists based on the projected physical therapists. Results : Based on the current productivity standards, there will be oversupply of 39,007 to 40,875 physical therapists under the demand scenario of average rate in 2030, undersupply of 44,663 to 49,885 under the demand scenario of logistic model, oversupply of 16,378 to 19,100 under the demand scenario of logarithm, and oversupply of 18,185 to 20,839 under the demand scenario of auto-regressive moving average (ARIMA) model in 2030. Conclusion : The result of this projection suggests that the direction and degree of supply of and demand for physical therapists varied depending on physical therapists productivity and utilization growth scenarios. However, the need for introduction of a professional physical therapist system and the need to provide long-term care rehabilitation services are actively being discussed in entering the aging society. If community rehabilitation programs for rehabilitation of disabled people and the elderly are activated, the demand of physical therapists will increase, especially for elderly people. Therefore, healthcare policy should focus on establishing rehabilitation service infrastructure suitable for an aging society, providing high-quality physical therapy services, and effective utilization of physical therapists.

• Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.141-145
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• 2008

Due to the uncertainties resulting from cost projection, evaluation over long term period, and adequacy of applied discount rate, the economic assessment for back-end fuel cycle is different from each organizations or individuals. In this paper, the features and limitations of some noticeable economic evaluations were investigated and analysed to contribute for the public participation and back-end fuel cycle policy related researches. As a result of analysis, we found that the reprocess and recycling is more economical than direct disposal option, but the result includes high uncertainty that depends on the input parameters.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2012.05a
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• pp.948-948
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• 2012

합천댐유역에 대한 기후변화에 따른 수문학적 영향을 정량적으로 분석하기 위해, 기상청에서 제공하는 공간해상도 27km의 MM5 RCM(Regional Climate Model)을 사용하였다. RCM의 기상변수들은 공간적 스케일의 상이성과 RCM 기후변수들의 불확실성 때문에 유출모형인 SWAT의 입력자료로 사용하기에는 어려움이 있다. 특히, RCM 변수들 중 강수량의 경우 한반도 지역의 6월과 10월 사이에 연강수량의 67%이상이 집중되는 계절성을 반영하지 못하고 있는 실정이기 때문에 국내 유역의 유출량 산정에 사용하기 위해서는 지역적 상세화(Downscaling)가 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 RCM 기후변수에 내포된 공간적 스케일의 상이성과 불확실성을 최소화하기 위해 강우관측소 지점을 단위로 한 다지점 인공신경망 기법을 적용하여 강수량, 습도, 최고기온 및 최저기온에 대한 상세화를 실시하였다. 강수의 경우 여름철 태풍사상을 모의하기 위한 Stochastic Typhoon Simulation기법과 Baseline(1991~2010)과 Projection(2011~2100) 사이의 강수량 보정을 위한 Dynamic Quantile Mapping 기법을 적용하여, 강수량의 불확실성을 최소화 하고자 하였다. 상세화된 기후자료를 이용한 SWAT 모형의 일(Daily) 단위 강우-유출 모의결과를 2011~2040년, 2041~2070년, 2071~2100년으로 구분하여 추세분석을 실시하였다.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• v.41 no.2
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• pp.87-106
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• 2024

The objective of this research is to address the issue of frozen orbits in charged satellites by incorporating geopotential zonal harmonics up to J6 and the initial tesseral harmonics. The employed model starts from the first normalized Hamiltonian to calculate specific sets of long-term frozen orbits for charged satellites. To explore the frozen orbits acquired, a MATHEMATICA CODE is developed. The investigation encompasses extensive variations in orbit altitudes by employing the orbital inclination and argument of periapsis as freezing parameters. The determined ranges ensuring frozen orbits are derived from the generated figures. Three-dimensional presentations illustrating the freezing inclination in relation to eccentricity, argument of periapsis, and semi-major axis parameters are presented. Additional three-dimensional representations of the phase space for the eccentricity vector and its projection onto the nonsingular plane are examined. In all investigated scenarios, the impacts of electromagnetic (EM) field perturbations on the freezing parameters of a charged satellite are demonstrated.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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• v.45 no.3
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• pp.92-106
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• 2017

This paper examines the validity of issuing municipal bonds for land compensation of long-term unexecuted urban parks and greenbelts. Then it suggests that municipal bonds should be issued for compensation priority areas with high rising prices. By conducting correlation analysis and PLS(Partial Least Squares) regression for 32 long-term unexecuted urban parks and greenbelts, the factors were identified that affected 'rising prices of IAPLP(Individually Announced Public Land Price) after seven years'. According to the analysis results, Variable Importance in the Projection in PLS regression was higher in 'IAPLP of base year(1.919)' and 'Accumulated rising Rates of average IAPLP in the borough(1.176).' The implications of this study are as follows. In Seoul, the accumulated rising rates of average IAPLP over the past 12 years is higher than the accumulated interest rates for seven years of urban planning facility bonds, which means that IAPLP have risen more than the interest payments due to the issuance of municipal bonds. In addition, since the actual compensation is three times that of IAPLP, it is judged that the land price is actually much higher than the interest payments. This shows that issuing municipal bonds and preferentially compensating for areas like high rising land prices can increase the economic efficiency of the budget execution. Also, for economic efficiency of budget execution, it is necessary to propose an 'area with high IAPLP' or 'a part in the borough with high rising rate of average IAPLP,' which is expected to have a high rising land price as criteria for compensation priority areas. In the future, when issuing municipal bonds to compensate long-term unexecuted urban parks and greenbelts, variousresearch on financing for municipal bonds repayment should be conducted.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.643-661
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• 2015

Korea Teachers Pension (private school pension) is a mandatory pension and a social security system for private school teachers to ensure the stability of subscribers by a supplying pension when they (and their dependents) face future economic risk due to retirement or death. Therefore, the Teachers Pension must provide stability and sustainability in regards to adequacy of income and to function as a pension. However, the Government Employees Pension System (GEPS) of Korea (the most representative special occupation pension) recorded a fiscal deficit in 2001 and with an accumulated deficit that is expected to grow; subsequently, various plans for the reform of GEPS have been actively discussed. The Korea Teachers Pension system is based on the GEPS scheme and is not free from the GEPS discussions on reforms of national pension. The current system for the Teachers Pension needs to be improved because it is expected to be depleted within the next 30 years due to low fertility and an aging population in Korea. This study discusses existing Teachers Pension schemes problems and suggests a projection method and revised plans to improve it. We use long-term financial projections of the Teachers Pension to estimate the fund exhaustion point and the minus balance of the financial scale as well as analyze the supply-demand burden structure that reflects the future population structure to propose Teachers Pension reforms that will improve stability and adequacy.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.31 no.4
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• pp.427-446
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• 2018

Korea will have a super-aged society within only 30 years according to the United Nations' definition of an aging society and the statistics on Korea's Population projections (2016), indicates that Korea has the fastest ageing speed in the world. There is a lack of data on long-term time-series data on death as related to pension and welfare policies compared to the rapid rate of aging. This paper estimates life expectancy over 245 years (from 1955 to 2200) through past and future forecasts as well as compares the expected life expectancy of the synthetic cohort and the real cohort. In addition, an international comparisons were made to understand the level of aging in Korea. Estimates of the back-projection period were compared with previous studies and the LC model to improve accuracy and objectivity. In addition, the predictions after 2016 reflected the declined mortality rate effect of Korea using the LC-ER model. The results showed an increase in life expectancy of about 30 years over 60 years (1955-2015) with an expected life expectancy of the real cohort over the second century (1955-2155) higher than the synthetic cohort. The comparative advantage of life expectancy of real cohorts was confirmed to be a common trend among comparative countries. In addition, Japan and Korea have a higher life expectancy and starting from 85 to 90 years old, all comparative countries show that the growth rate for the life expectancy of synthetic and real cohorts is less than previous years.

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.205-216
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• 2000

An unstable natural slope located at Icheon-Ri, Dasa-Eup, Dalseong-Kun which has been severely cracked during heavy rain fall in September, 1998, was investigated and analysed for remedial measures. Various geological data were obtained by performing a surface geological survey, a ground penetrating radar(GPR) exploration, four geotechnical borings with field and laboratory tests, and the precipitation records were also reviewed. Based on the these data, the probable sliding plane was determined as a bedding plane with dip angle of 20 to 25 degrees between sandstone and shale layers at depth of 6 to 8 meters. By performing back analyses with the limit equilibrium method, the friction angle and cohesion of the sliding plane were determined as 18$^{\circ}$ and 0, respectively. Based on these results, a series of stability analyses such as stereo-graphic projection method, limiting equilibrium method and numerical method were carried out. The remedial measures for the unstable slope were selected based on the results of the limit equilibrium analyses by considering various conditions expected at the site. Ground grouting or anchoring method with proper surface drainage systems could be employed for the long term safety of the slope.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.99-109
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• 2013

The slopes of open-pit mine are typically designed without considering the reinforcement and support method due to the economical efficiency. However, the long-term stability of final pit slope is needed in some case, therefore the appropriate measures that can improve the stability are required. In this study, the field survey and laboratory test were carried out in S limestone mine. The stability assessment of final pit slope was performed through the stereographic projection method, SMR, and numerical analysis. And countermeasures for stabilization were proposed. The results of analysis show that full scale of slope failure is not expected but the failures of bench slope scale are likely to occur. In oder to increase the stability of bench slope, we suggested the remedial methods as follows: excavating the final pit slope by pre-splitting blasting, placing the wide berm in the intermediate bench slope and installing the horizontal drainage hole in the place of local ground water runoff.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.14-28
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• 2020

Future climate change may affect the hydro-thermal and biogeochemical characteristics of dam reservoirs, the most important water resources in Korea. Thus, scientific projection of the impact of climate change on the reservoir environment, factoring uncertainties, is crucial for sustainable water use. The purpose of this study was to predict the future water temperature and stratification structure of the Soyanggang Reservoir in response to a total of 42 scenarios, combining two climate scenarios, seven GCM models, one surface runoff model, and three wind scenarios of hydrodynamic model, and to quantify the uncertainty of each modeling step and scenario. Although there are differences depending on the scenarios, the annual reservoir water temperature tended to rise steadily. In the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, the upper water temperature is expected to rise by 0.029 ℃ (±0.012)/year and 0.048 ℃ (±0.014)/year, respectively. These rise rates are correspond to 88.1 % and 85.7 % of the air temperature rise rate. Meanwhile, the lower water temperature is expected to rise by 0.016 ℃ (±0.009)/year and 0.027 ℃ (±0.010)/year, respectively, which is approximately 48.6 % and 46.3 % of the air temperature rise rate. Additionally, as the water temperatures rises, the stratification strength of the reservoir is expected to be stronger, and the number of days when the temperature difference between the upper and lower layers exceeds 5 ℃ increases in the future. As a result of uncertainty quantification, the uncertainty of the GCM models showed the highest contribution with 55.8 %, followed by 30.8 % RCP scenario, and 12.8 % W2 model.