• 한국인구학
• /
• 제33권2호
• /
• pp.85-111
• /
• 2010

한국사회가 최근 초저출산율이 지속되고, 사망율이 괄목할 만큼 개선되면서 장래인구 추계는 새로운 도전을 받고 있다. 이 연구는 장래 인구를 보다 정확한 예측하고, 양질의 정보를 제공하기 위한 방안을 한국의 경우를 중심으로 여타 저출산 국가들과 비교연구를 통해 논의하였다. 구체적으로 이 연구는 1) 통계청이 실시한 2009년도 인구추계를 2006년도 공식 인구추계와 비교분석 하였고, 2) 한국의 인구추계방식을 다른 나라의 경우와 비교 분석하였다. 비교에는 어떤 기관이 인구추계를 담당하는지, 얼마나 먼 장래까지 추계 하는지, 얼마나 자주 행해지는지, 그리고 추계에 사용되는 출산, 사망, 이주에 관련된 가정과 시나리오의 수를 고려하였다. 3) 향후 50년간장래인구를 확률적 인구추계 방식을 도입하여 예측해 보았다. 4) 마지막으로 2011년 장래인구추계에 사용될 시나리오를 살펴보았다. 이러한 논의를 바탕으로 이 연구는, 장래인구추계의 정확성을 높이기 위해서 인구추계를 좀더 자주 실시할 것과, 단기와 장기추계의 구분, 시나리오 수를 기존 네 가지에서 더 늘릴 것을 제안하였다. 또한 기준인구 산정에 있어 국내 체류중인 외국인 인구를 고려할 것과 확률적 인구추계 방식도 도입할 것을 제안하였다.

• 한국정밀공학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국정밀공학회 1997년도 추계학술대회 논문집
• /
• pp.101-104
• /
• 1997

The purpose of this study is the development of the extensive Rapid Prototyping Technique, which can resolve the long-term manufacturing process, shrinkage and deformation occurring rapid prototyping technique. To begin with, the various specimens for tensile and bending test were manufactured on the basis of this modeling technology. Then, many kinds of the laminate pieces for the test were made by using the sheet steels 1 mm and 2 mm thickness which is composed of the same ingredient. Not only the mechanical strength of the both of the laminate specimens by the developed Rapid Prototyping using projection welding and non-laminate specimens of 5 mm thickness were evaluated, but the mechanical strength of the specimens of the tensile and bending test composed of heterogeneous components were also estimated.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• 제31권4호
• /
• pp.377-391
• /
• 2024

Accurate household projections are essential for sectors such as housing supply and tax policy planning, given the rapid social changes like declining birthrates, an aging population, and a rise in single-person households that impact household size and type. Korea introduced its first register-based census in 2015, transitioning from five-year general survey-based approach to an annual administrative data-based census. This change in census allows for more frequent and effective capturing the rapid demographic shifts and trends. However, this change in census has caused challenges in future projection by the existing household projection model due to the rapid dynamics. This paper proposes a new household projection method, the N-point Modified Exponential Model (MEM), that accurately reflects register-based census data and mitigates the impact of rapid demographic changes, in three types: the Weighted N-point MEM, the Regression-based N-point MEM, and the Rolling Weighted N+point MEM. Using register-based census data from 2016 to 2020 to forecast household headship rates by age, household size, and household type to 2051, the N-point modified exponential model outperformed the existing model in both long- and short-term forecast accuracy, suggesting its suitability as a future household projection model for Korea.

• Archives of Plastic Surgery
• /
• 제43권4호
• /
• pp.339-343
• /
• 2016

Background Numerous techniques have been used to achieve long-term projection of the nipple following nipple-areola reconstruction. However, the reconstructed nipple loses projection over time. We describe a technique that uses local flaps to improve the lost projection of reconstructed nipples. Methods Between November 2013 and March 2015, nine patients (11 nipples) underwent revisional nipple reconstruction for lost projection. Only C-H nipple reconstructions were included in this study. The medical history of each patient was reviewed and photographs were taken in front and lateral views. All patients attended routine follow-up visits. Deepithelialized triangular flaps were made on all four sides of the nipple and buried in the opposite corners in order to augment the volume of the nipple. Anchoring sutures were used to attach each triangular flap on the side opposite their point of origin, and the resulting defects were closed directly. Results This procedure was used successfully in nine patients (11 nipples). Adequate projection was achieved in all patients and no complications occurred. The average nipple height was 3 mm before operation, 7 mm one day after operation, 5 mm at the six-month follow-up, and 5 mm at the 12-month follow-up. The average nipple-areolar angle was $164^{\circ}$ before the operation, $111^{\circ}$ one day after the operation, $130^{\circ}$ at the six-month follow-up, and $133^{\circ}$ at the 12-month follow-up. Conclusions The method described provides a solution to the loss of projection in reconstructed nipples. We recommend this technique because it leads to better projection, greater volume, and a more natural shape.

• Journal of Animal Science and Technology
• /
• 제62권3호
• /
• pp.321-333
• /
• 2020

Beef quality is influenced by the fattening period. Therefore, meat metabolomics profiles from the different fattening periods (e.g., short-term vs. long-term) were analyzed for identify potential indicators using nuclear magnetic resonance. Additionally, blood, free fatty acid, sensory, and mineral compositions in Korean steers were determined. Blood, free fatty acid, and mineral concentrations showed significant differences between short-term and long-term groups that were fed different diets. However, there were no sensory differences in the two fattening groups. Additionally, the metabolic profiles of meats were clearly separated based on multivariate orthogonal partial least square discriminant analysis. Six metabolites of variable importance in the projection plot were identified and showed high sensitivity as candidate markers for meat characteristics. In particular, lactate, carnosine, and creatine could be directly linked to scientific indicators of the fattening stage (31 vs. 28 mo) of meat. Our findings suggest that the metabolomics approach could be a powerful method for the detection of novel signatures underlying the managing period of beef.

• 한국에너지공학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국에너지공학회 1998년도 춘계 학술발표회 논문집
• /
• pp.199-204
• /
• 1998

최근 화석연료의 과다한 사용으로 인한 온실효과 등 지구환경문제가 대두되면서 원자력은 온실가스를 배출하지 않는 에너지원으로서 다시 조망을 받고 있다. 특히 부존 에너지자원이 부족하고 전력의 수요가 급증하고 있는 우리의 사정을 고려한다면 원자력은 향후 수십년간 주요 발전원으로 상당한 역할을 수행할 것으로 기대된다. (중략)

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 대한전기학회 2009년도 제40회 하계학술대회
• /
• pp.557_558
• /
• 2009

본 논문은 제 4차 전력수급계획의 발전설비 건설 계획을 기준으로 2022년까지 SMP를 P-Pool 전산모형을 이용하여 전망하였다. 미래 SMP 전망에 가장 영향을 크게 미치는 변수인 전력수요, 연료가격, 공급설비용량을 각각 3개의 시나리오로 가정하고 시나리오별 SMP를 예측및 각 변수별 민감도를 분석하였다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• 제43권4호
• /
• pp.375-382
• /
• 2011

The prospects for growth of the nuclear power industry in Korea have improved remarkably as the demand for energy increases in stride with economic development. Meanwhile, as nuclear energy development is enhanced, nuclear technology has also improved evolutionarily and innovatively in the areas of reactor design and safety measures. As nuclear technology development in Korea advances, more human resources are required. Accordingly, the need for a well-managed program of human resource development (HRD) aimed at assuring needed capacities, skills, and knowledge and maintaining valuable human resources through education and training in various nuclear-related fields has been recognized. A well-defined and object-oriented human resource development and management (HRD&M) is to be developed in order to balance between the dynamics of supply and demand of the workforce in the nuclear industry. The HRD&M schemes include a broad base of disciplines, education, sciences, and technologies within a framework of national sustainable development goals, which are generally considered to include economics, environment, and social concerns. In this study, the projection methodology considering a variety of economic, social, and environmental factors was developed. Using the developed methodology, medium- and long-term nuclear human resources projections up to 2030 were conducted in compliance with the national nuclear technology development programmes and plans.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국수자원학회 2022년도 학술발표회
• /
• pp.347-347
• /
• 2022

최근 데이터 사이언스의 비약적인 발전과 함께 다양한 형태의 딥러닝 알고리즘이 개발되어 수자원 분야에도 적용되고 있다. 이 연구에서는 LSTM(Long Short-Term Memory) 네트워크와 BO-LSTM이라는 베이지안 최적화(BO) 기술을 결합하여 일단위 앙상블 미래 댐유입량을 projection하는 딥 러닝 모델을 제안하였다. BO-LSTM 하이퍼파라미터 및 손실 함수는 베이지안 최적화 기법을 통해 훈련 및 최적화되며, BO 접근법은 모델의 하이퍼파라미터와 손실 함수를 높은 정확도로 빠르게 최적화할 수 있었다(R=0.92 및 NSE=0.85). 또한 미래 댐 유입량을 예측하기 위한 LSTM의 구조는 Forecasting 모형과 Proiection 모형으로 구분하여 두 모형의 장단점을 분석하였으며, 본 연구의 결과로부터 데이터 처리 단계가 모델 훈련의 효율성을 높이고 노이즈를 줄이는 데 효과적이고 미래 예측에 있어 LSTM 구조에 따른 영향을 확인할 수 있었다. 본 연구는 소양강 유역, 2020-2100년 기간 동안의 미래 예측에 적용되었다. 전반적으로, CIMIP6 데이터에 따르면 10%에서 50%의 미래 유입량 증가가 발생하는 것으로 확인되었으며, 이는 미래 강수량의 증가의 폭과 유사함을 확인하였다. 유입량 산정에 있어 신뢰할 수 있는 예측은 저수지 운영, 계획 및 관리에 있어 정책 입안자와 운영자에게 도움이 될 것입니다.

• Archives of Plastic Surgery
• /
• 제43권5호
• /
• pp.424-429
• /
• 2016

Background The objective of this paper was to describe a novel technique for improving the maintenance of nipple projection in primary nipple reconstruction by using acellular dermal matrix as a strut in one of three different configurations, according to the method of prior breast reconstruction. The struts were designed to best fill the different types of dead spaces in nipple reconstruction depending on the breast reconstruction method. Methods A total of 50 primary nipple reconstructions were performed between May 2012 and May 2015. The prior breast reconstruction methods were latissimus dorsi (LD) flap (28 cases), transverse rectus abdominis myocutaneous (TRAM) flap (10 cases), or tissue expander/implant (12 cases). The nipple reconstruction technique involved the use of local flaps, including the C-V flap or star flap. A $1{\times}2-cm$ acellular dermal matrix was placed into the core with O-, I-, and L-shaped struts for prior LD, TRAM, and expander/implant methods, respectively. The projection of the reconstructed nipple was measured at the time of surgery and at 3, 6, and 9 months postoperatively. Results The nine-month average maintenance of nipple projection was $73.0%{\pm}9.67%$ for the LD flap group using an O-strut, $72.0%{\pm}11.53%$ for the TRAM flap group using an I-strut, and $69.0%{\pm}10.82%$ for the tissue expander/implant group using an L-strut. There were no cases of infection, wound dehiscence, or flap necrosis. Conclusions The application of an acellular dermal matrix with a different kind of strut for each of 3 breast reconstruction methods is an effective addition to current techniques for improving the maintenance of long-term projection in primary nipple reconstruction.